2025年12月31日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 节前观望情绪较强, 盘面震荡运行, 已建议落袋后短期建议观望为主, 元旦快乐! SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 12月29日 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS(欧洲航线) 1742.64点,较上期上涨9.7% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 1301.41点, 较上期上涨35.3% 12月26日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1656.32点,较上期上涨103.4点 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1690USD/TEU,较上期上涨10.24% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线2188USD/FEU,较上期上涨9.84% 12月26日 财联社12月29日电，据央视新闻，当地时间12月28日，以色列国防军发表声明证实，上周，其代表团在塞浦路斯与希腊、塞浦路斯军方代表共同签 署了2026年度三方军事合作工作计划，同时还签署了以色列与希腊、以色列与塞浦路斯之间的双边军事合作计划。以色列代表团由以军国际合作部 苹果版 门负责人阿米特·阿德勒准将率领，并在塞浦路斯首都尼科西亚与希腊和塞浦路斯军方举行年度联合会议。三方就未来一年 ...

2025年12月29日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 市场暂无明确交易方向，盘面震荡运行，投资者需注意或将反转信号，已建议落袋后短期建议观望为主。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 12月26日 12月22日 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 1094.77点, 较上期上涨7.24% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1589.20点, 较上期上涨5.2% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1144.37点, 较上期上涨7.22% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 962.10点, 较上期上涨4.1% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1254.91点, 较上期上涨2.16% 12月26日 12月26日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1656.32点、较上期上涨103.4点 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1124.73点,较上期上涨0.6% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格11690USD/TEU,较上期上涨10.24% 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (欧洲航线) 1473.90点,较上期上涨0.2% 上海出口集 ...

2025年12月24日 集运日报 (航运研究/组) 现货运价涨幅不及预期，叠加多头止盈离场，盘面承压下行,符合日报预期,落袋后短期建议观望为主。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 12月22日 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1589.20点, 较上期上涨5.2% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 962.10点, 较上期上涨4.1% 12月19日 上海出口集装箱运价指数$CFl公布价格1552.92点,较上期上涨46.46点 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl欧线价格1533USD/TEU,较上期下跌0.33% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线1992USD/FEU,较上期上涨11.91% 12月19日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 1094.77点, 较上期上涨3.20% | | --- | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1067.29点，较上期上涨0.30% | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1228.34点, 较上期上涨19.28% | | 12月19日 | | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 II GER期货 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钊毅 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | 投资咨询号： Z0021177 从业资格号:F03101843 | | 2025/12/19 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 综合指数SCFI | 中国出口集装箱运价 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | E | 现值 | 1506 | 1118 | 1780 | 924 | 2652 | 1538 | | | 前值 | 1398 | 1115 | 1550 | 960 | 2315 | 1400 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | 7.79% | 0.29% | 14.84% | -3.75% | 14.56% | 9.86% | | 指 | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCFI-地中海 | | | | | | 数 | 现值 | 1510 | 273 ...

2025年12月17日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 部分班轮公司报价不及预期,盘面止涨转跌,盘面震荡上行,符合日报预期,已建议全部止盈。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 12月15日 | 12月12日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1510.56点, 较上期上涨0.1% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 1060.86点, 较上期上涨10.23% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 924.36点, 较上期下跌3.8% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1064.13点, 较上期上涨9.98% | | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1029.8点, 较上期上涨17.28% | | 12月12日 | 12月12日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1506.461 点, 较上期上涨108.83点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1118.07 点, 较上期上涨0.3% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1538USD/TEU, 较上期上 ...

| 12月15日 | 12月12日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1510.56点, 较上期上涨0.1% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 1060.86点, 较上期上涨10.23% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 924.36点, 较上期下跌3.8% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1064.13点, 较上期上涨9.98% | | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1029.8点, 较上期上涨17.28% | | 12月12日 | 12月12日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1506.461 点, 较上期上涨108.83点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1118.07 点, 较上期上涨0.3% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1538USD/TEU, 较上期上涨9.86% | | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线1780USD/FEU,较上期上上涨14.84% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI(欧洲航线) 147 ...

欧元区11月综合PMI初值52.4, 仅略低于10月数据52.5, 继续稳定在荣枯分水岭50以上, 基本符合预期。服务业与制造业分化, 服务业PMI初值为 53.1, 不仅高于前值53, 而且优于预期值52.8, 录得一年半以来最佳月度表现。欧元区11月综合PMI初值为52.4, 较10月份的52.5轻微回落。 欧元 区12月Sentix投资者信心指数-6.2,预期-7,前值-7.4。 10月份,制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.0%,比上月下降0.8个百分点,制造业景气水平有所回落。10月份,综合PMI产出指数为50.0%,比上 月下降0.6个百分点，位于临界点，表明我国企业生产经营活动总体稳定。 美国10月标普全球服务业PM1初值55.2,预期53.5, 前值54.2; 制造业PM1初值52.2,预期52, 前值52; 综合PM1初值54.8, 预期53.1, 前值53.9 中美关税问题仍以延期的形式作为短期的解决方案,运价走势的 短期策略: 主力合约回撤反弹,远月合约波动放缓,风险偏好者已 建议主力合约轻仓试多,建议全部止盈,不建议继续补仓,不建议 逻辑还是回归传统季节性和红海何时复航的问题上,目前现 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The retracement may be in place, and the main contract has rebounded continuously. It is recommended to take a small - position long in the main contract and focus on the pre - Spring Festival shipping market. The freight rate has no obvious fluctuation. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is suggested to participate with a small position [2][4] - With the interweaving of long and short information such as some liner companies' price increase announcements and the decline of the latest SCFIS index, the contracts rise and fall differently. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Index Information - On December 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1483.65 points, down 9.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 948.77 points, down 14.4% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period [3] - On November 28, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1403.13 points, up 9.57 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1404 USD/TEU, up 2.71% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1632 USD/FEU, down 0.79% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1449.34 points, up 1.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 841.86 points, down 1.1% from the previous period [3] 3.2 Economic Data - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined. The composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises were stable [4] - In the US in October, the S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52, previous value 52); the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [4] - In the eurozone in October, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45); the services PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4); the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6). The Sentix investor confidence index was expected to be - 8.5, with the previous value of - 9.2 [3] 3.3 Contract Information - On December 2, the main contract 2602 closed at 1534.2, with a gain of 2.16%, a trading volume of 24,700 lots, and an open interest of 36,300 lots, a decrease of 1882 lots from the previous day [4] 3.4 Strategy Suggestions - **Short - term strategy**: For risk - preference investors, it is recommended to take a small - position long in the main contract. When the market dips slightly, do not add more positions, do not hold losses, and set stop - losses [5] - **Arbitrage strategy**: In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a small position [5] - **Long - term strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises to a high level, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5] 3.5 Other Information - Some liner companies have announced price increases for late December, but the latest SCFIS index is declining, with long and short information intertwined, and the contracts rise and fall differently [4] - The Iran - Israel situation: Iran is seeking to restore its military potential and re - arm regional forces to confront Israel, including restoring the military capabilities of the Houthi armed forces and smuggling weapons to the West Bank for attacks on Israel [6] - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin of the company for these contracts is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pessimistic sentiment has been digested, and short - sellers have taken profits and left the market. The main contract has risen significantly, but the freight rate has no obvious fluctuation. It is recommended to wait and see. The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates, and the main contract has shown a seasonal rebound. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [1][2]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rate conditions [3]. 3) Summary by Related Content Freight Rate Index - On November 28th, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) was 1639.37 points, up 20.7% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1107.85 points, down 10.5% from the previous period; the NCFI (US West route) was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period [1]. - On November 28th, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1403.13 points, up 9.57 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1404 USD/TEU, up 2.71% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1449.34 points, up 1.1% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1632 USD/FEU, down 0.79% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 841.86 points, down 1.1% from the previous period [1]. Main Contract Information - On November 28th, the main contract 2602 closed at 1471.9, with a gain of 6.74%, a trading volume of 41,500 lots, and an open interest of 40,100 lots, a decrease of 1089 lots from the previous day [3]. PMI Data - Eurozone's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45); services PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4); composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6); October Sentix investor confidence index's previous value was - 9.2, forecast value was - 8.5 [2]. - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined. The composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises were stable [2]. - The preliminary value of the US October S&P Global services PMI was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52); composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [2]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: For risk - preferring investors, it is recommended to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range. If the market plunges, do not add positions, do not hold losses, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Other Information - As of November 29th, the Western Land - Sea New Corridor trains have cumulatively sent more than 5 million TEUs of container goods since 2017, reaching 5.003 million TEUs. Among them, the number of TEUs sent this year has exceeded 1.3 million, reaching 1.308 million TEUs, a year - on - year increase of 55.3% [5]. - The daily limit and circuit breaker for contracts 2508 - 2606 have been adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Pessimistic sentiment has been slightly digested, with the near - month contracts showing weak and volatile trends, and the far - month contracts having a stronger downward amplitude possibly due to Red Sea resumption information. The focus should be on tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [2][4]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [4]. 3. Specific Summaries 3.1 SCFIS, NCFI and Other Price Indexes - On November 24, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1639.37 points, up 20.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1107.85 points, down 10.5% from the previous period [3]. - On November 21, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 946.44 points, down 5.33% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 951.65 points, down 2.83% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 955.93 points, down 9.17% from the previous period [3]. - On November 21, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1393.56 points, down 57.82 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1367 USD/TEU, down 3.53% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1645 USD/FEU, down 9.76% from the previous period [3]. - On November 21, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1122.79 points, up 2.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1432.96 points, up 2.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 850.96 points, up 0.6% from the previous period [3] 3.2 Market Conditions and Contract Information - On November 27, the main contract 2602 closed at 1387.7, with a decline of 0.69%, a trading volume of 25,000 lots, and an open interest of 43,000 lots, a decrease of 1089 lots from the previous day [4]. - The main contract has retraced, and the far - month contracts are relatively strong. Risk - preferring investors are recommended to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range. If the market plunges, do not add positions, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. 3.3 Strategies - Short - term strategy: For the main contract retracement and strong far - month contracts, risk - preferring investors can try to go long on the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range with a light position. Do not add positions when the market drops sharply, and set stop - losses. For the arbitrage strategy, due to the large fluctuations under the unstable international situation, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. 3.4 Other Information - In October, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9, the service PMI preliminary value was 51.2, and the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7. In the US, the service PMI preliminary value in October was 55.2, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2, and the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 [3][4]. - In China, the manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - The Sino - US tariff issue is still resolved in the form of an extension in the short term. The logic of the freight rate trend returns to traditional seasonality and the issue of when the Red Sea will resume navigation [4].