FICC日报 | 2026-02-25 3月上半月运价逐步修正，关注马士基3月第二周开价情况 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹WEEK11报价1210/1920（其中上海-伦敦基本港WEEK11周报价涨至 1320/2100）；HPL3月份上半月船期报价1935/2535 ，3月下半月船期报价1935/3135. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 3月份上半月船期报价1400/2340；ONE 3月上半月船期报价1940/3035，3月下半月 1940/3035；HMM 上海-鹿特丹 3月份上半月船期报价1783/3136。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹3月份上半月船期报价1459/2593，3月份下半月船期报价2159/2793；EMC 3月 上半月船期报价2065/3130；OOCL 3月份船期报价1830/3130。 地缘端：据福克斯新闻：特朗普表示，伊朗尚未同意放弃核武器。②白宫就伊朗问题表态称，特朗普的首要选择 始终是通过外交途径解决问题，但在必要时也会准备动用致命武力。③据CBS：特朗普对针对伊朗有限的军事选 ...

集运股全线走高，截至发稿，中远海发（601866）(02866)涨6.09%，报1.22港元；中远海控（601919） (01919)涨2.82%，报14.96港元；东方海外国际(00316)涨2.52%，报146.6港元；海丰国际(01308)涨 0.73%，报33.22港元。 消息面上，2月3日，航运集团赫伯罗特与马士基将调整双方一项共享航线服务的航行路线，重新经由红 海及苏伊士运河运输。然而本应首次实现复航红海的"Maersk Detroit"号，在实际执行中转向南下绕行非 洲好望角。公司解释：改道系因西地中海恶劣天气造成船期延误，公司因此决定调整航行计划，经好望 角绕行。 申万宏源发布研报称，此次绕行意味着红海复航仍无法在短时间内落地。此外，市场已经进入3月初船 期，随着春节假期后工厂的复工复产，预计需求有望得到改善。关注节后航司选涨、挺价等相关动作。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The shipping market in 2026 will revolve around two key variables: the concentration of exports before the exit of the export tax policy and the reopening of the Red Sea shipping route [2][7]. Demand Factors - The most significant short-term variable on the demand side is the export tax policy, which will see the cancellation of export tax for solar products starting April 1, 2026, and for battery products in 2027. This policy is expected to lead to a surge in exports in the first quarter of 2026, potentially overstretching future demand and negatively impacting freight rates in the second quarter and beyond [2][7]. - In the medium to long term, demand growth in the shipping market is anticipated to slow down significantly, with growth primarily driven by European restocking needs, the cost advantages of Chinese manufacturing, and structural opportunities arising from changes in the trade environment. Key growth areas are expected to be in electric vehicles, textiles, and home appliances [2][7]. Supply Factors - The core variable on the supply side is whether the Red Sea shipping route will resume operations, which will be crucial in determining the capacity landscape for 2026. If the current detour around the Cape of Good Hope continues, capacity growth will be relatively moderate. Due to a slowdown in new ship deliveries and some new capacity being redirected to emerging markets in Asia, South America, and Africa, the capacity growth on the European route is expected to be around 4%, matching demand growth [3][8]. - If the Red Sea reopens, it could release a significant amount of effective capacity in a short time, leading to structural shocks in the supply chain. In this scenario, total capacity on the European route could increase by approximately 8% compared to current levels, which may disrupt the supply-demand balance and continue to suppress freight rates during peak seasons [3][9]. Market Outlook - Overall, the European shipping market in 2026 is expected to exhibit a complex pattern of "short-term support and long-term uncertainties." In the short term, the first quarter will benefit from the "export rush," with relatively full cargo volumes, compounded by potential congestion at ports in Western and Northern Europe during winter, providing strong support for freight rates [4][9]. - In the long term, the central tendency and volatility of freight rates will largely depend on the status of the Red Sea reopening. If it does not reopen, the market supply and demand will likely remain balanced, leading to seasonal fluctuations in freight rates. Conversely, if the Red Sea reopens, there will be a need to be cautious of the risks of overcapacity leading to downward pressure on freight rates [4][9].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Shipping Research Report - Shipping Daily - Date: January 20, 2026 [1] Group 2: Container Shipping - Freight Index (European Line) Futures Market - **Contract Performance**: EC2602 closed at 1,710.0, down 0.25%; EC2604 at 1,112.6, down 1.73%; EC2606 at 1,317.4, down 0.05%; EC2608 at 1,467.9, up 0.61%; EC2610 at 1,052.9, down 0.11%; EC2612 at 1,318.0, up 1.38% [4] - **Volume and Open Interest**: Volume and open interest of different contracts showed various increases and decreases, such as EC2602 volume down 14.46% and open interest down 13.42% [4] - **Monthly Spread Structure**: The spreads between different contracts also changed, e.g., EC02 - EC04 spread was 597, up 15.3 [4] Container Freight Rates - **SCFIS and SCFI Index**: SCFIS European Line was 1954.19, down 0.11% week - on - week and 29.89% year - on - year; SCFI Comprehensive Index was 1574.12, down 4.45% week - on - week and 37.17% year - on - year. Different routes had different price changes, like SCFI Shanghai - Europe was 1676, down 2.50% week - on - week and 41.21% year - on - year [4] Fuel Cost - WTI crude oil near - month contract was $59.26 per barrel, down 0.34% week - on - week and 23.17% year - on - year; Brent crude oil near - month contract was $63.41 per barrel, down 0.05% week - on - week and 20.2% year - on - year [4] Group 3: Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Market Analysis - The market is still debating the future decline and trend of off - season freight rates. The EC market is in a weak oscillation. The spot freight rate is at the top - falling stage. The export tax - rebate - driven rush shipment may delay the decline but is hard to reverse it [6] - The spot freight rate inflection point has emerged. MSK's WK6 Shanghai - Rotterdam quote dropped by $400/HC compared to last week. The demand is reaching a peak and then declining, and the supply has little change in the short term. The traditional off - season is from February to March, but the upcoming cancellation of export tax - rebate policy may lead to a rush shipment [6][7] - CMA decided to divert ships on some routes via the Cape of Good Hope due to geopolitical instability, which is expected to repair the backwardation of far - month contracts [6][7] Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: It is recommended to wait and see for the 04 contract due to many short - term disturbances and uncertainties in the rush - shipment strength. The far - month contracts are expected to repair the backwardation [9] - **Arbitrage**: Hold the 6 - 10 calendar spread long position [9] Group 4: Industry News - There are various geopolitical news, including issues related to Greenland, the US President's hope for a Gaza agreement, Israel - Iran relations, and the non - attendance of the Iranian Foreign Minister at the Davos Forum [10][11][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC market has been in a weak and volatile state recently, with the market continuously debating the future decline rate of freight rates and the intensity of the Q1 rush shipment. The spot freight rate is in the process of reaching its peak and then falling back. Although the rush shipment due to export tax rebates may delay the decline, it is difficult to reverse the downward trend. The 04 contract shows a discount, and attention should be paid to the subsequent Q1 rush shipment intensity. The spot settlement price remains high, mainly because most ships were delayed in January, and it is expected that the index will gradually decline in the future [5]. - The inflection point of the spot freight rate has emerged, and attention should be paid to the subsequent market booking situation. From a fundamental perspective, the cargo volume is gradually entering the range of reaching its peak and then falling back. In terms of supply, the weekly average capacity from Shanghai to the 5 ports in Northern Europe in January, February, and March is 303,100 TEU, 253,000 TEU, and 268,800 TEU respectively, with little overall change compared to last week. From a traditional seasonal perspective, freight rates gradually enter the off - season from February to March. After the policy of canceling export tax rebates for most commodities from April 1st, a phased rush shipment is expected, but there are still differences in the market regarding the intensity of the rush shipment. Geopolitically, the far - month market is still suppressed by the resumption of navigation, but the overall resumption of navigation in the European line is expected to be difficult in the first half of the year [6]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term due to many disturbances and differences in the intensity of the rush shipment. For arbitrage, it is advisable to enter the 6 - 10 positive spread position in batches at low prices [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) 3.1.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: On January 19, 2026, the closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2612 were 1,714.3, 1,132.2, 1,318.0, 1,459.0, 1,054.1, and 1,300.0 respectively, with changes of +3.8 (+0.22%), +11.2 (+1.00%), +6.8 (+0.52%), - 6.6 (-0.45%), - 1.0 (-0.09%), and +10.0 (+0.78%) respectively. The trading volumes were 1,999.0, 30,559.0, 2,329.0, 121.0, 1,410, and 40 respectively, with changes of - 17.84%, - 38.53%, - 43.70%, - 72.99%, - 34.42%, and - 38.46% respectively. The open interests were 6,439.0, 41,888.0, 4,200.0, 1,366.0, 8,186, and 122 respectively, with changes of - 15.03%, - 1.75%, +11.11%, - 1.37%, +3.12%, and +1.67% respectively [3]. - **Monthly Spread Structure**: For example, the spread of EC02 - EC04 was 582, with a change of - 7.4; the spread of EC04 - EC06 was - 186, with a change of +4.4 [3]. 3.1.2 Container Freight Rates - **Weekly Container Freight Rates**: The SCFIS European line index was 1,954.19, with a week - on - week change of - 0.11% and a year - on - year change of - 29.89%. The SCFIS US West line index was 1,305.27, with a week - on - week change of - 1.41% and a year - on - year change of - 46.68%. Different routes of the SCFI also showed various changes, such as the Shanghai - Europe route at 1,676 USD/TEU, with a week - on - week change of - 2.50% and a year - on - year change of - 41.21% [3]. 3.1.3 Fuel Costs - The price of WTI crude oil near - month was 59.46 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week change of +0.32% and a year - on - year change of - 23.68%. The price of Brent crude oil near - month was 63.44 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week change of +0.36% and a year - on - year change of - 20.7% [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.2.1 Market Analysis - The market is debating the future decline rate of freight rates and the intensity of the Q1 rush shipment. The spot freight rate is at the peak - to - decline stage, and the rush shipment due to export tax rebates may delay the decline but is difficult to reverse the trend. The 04 contract shows a discount. The spot settlement price is high because of ship delays in January, and the index is expected to decline [5]. - The inflection point of the spot freight rate has emerged. The cargo volume is reaching its peak and then falling back. The supply of shipping capacity has little change. From a seasonal perspective, the off - season is from February to March, but the export tax rebate cancellation policy may lead to a phased rush shipment. There are differences in the market regarding the intensity of the rush shipment. Geopolitically, the far - month market is suppressed by the resumption of navigation, but the large - scale resumption of the European line is difficult in the first half of the year [6]. 3.2.2 Strategy Recommendation - **Single - side Trading**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term due to many disturbances and differences in the intensity of the rush shipment [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Enter the 6 - 10 positive spread position in batches at low prices [8]. 3.3 Industry News - Canada will reduce tariffs on some Chinese electric vehicles, allowing up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles to enter the Canadian market with a 6.1% most - favored - nation tariff rate, and the quota will increase annually [10]. - The US is preparing for an attack on Iran [11]. - US President Trump will impose a 10% tariff on all goods exported from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland to the US from February 1st, and the tariff rate will increase to 25% from June 1st until an agreement on "fully and completely purchasing Greenland" is reached. The EU will hold an emergency meeting, and some EU countries are considering imposing tariffs on 93 billion euros of US goods exported to the EU [11][12].

Report Information - Report Name: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: January 8, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS index rebounded 3.1% to 1795.83 points this week. The freight rate in early January was maintained at around $2880, and the cargo collection was in good condition. There is still an upward expectation for the price increase in late January, and there may be some upward space for the February contract. However, the expectation of resuming navigation in the Red Sea after the Spring Festival may heat up, and attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunity of the April contract in the off - season and the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between the 02 and 04 contracts [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot market: The SCFIS index rose 3.1% to 1795.83 points this week. The freight rate in early January was around $2880, and the cargo collection was good. The late - January quotation is in the range of $2700 - 3100, and the Maersk's fourth - week opening price of $2800 is better than expected. There is still an upward expectation for the February contract, but attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunity of the April contract in the off - season and the 02 - 04 positive spread arbitrage opportunity [8] 2. Industry News - From December 22 to 26, 2025, the China Export Container Shipping Market showed a good trend, and the comprehensive index rose. The European economy was weak in 2025, with high geopolitical and energy security risks. The spot market booking price in the European and Mediterranean routes rose during the signing season. The North American employment market showed a slight recovery, and the freight rate also increased. Multiple shipping companies announced price hikes and PSS adjustments. Military operations in the Middle East continued, and there were uncertainties about Maersk's resumption of Red Sea - Suez Canal navigation [9][10] 3. Data Overview - **Container shipping spot prices**: The SCFIS European route index rose 3.1% to 1795.83 points from December 29, 2025, to January 5, 2026, while the US - West route index fell 3.9% to 1250.12 points [12] - **Container shipping index (European line) futures market**: Provided trading data for multiple contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc., including opening price, closing price, settlement price, etc. [6] - **Shipping - related data trend charts**: Included data on European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, etc. [18][20]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The pre - holiday sentiment is cautious, with the market fluctuating. After suggesting taking profits, short - term investors are advised to wait and see. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current focus is on the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Content a. Freight Index - On December 29, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1742.64 points, up 9.7% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1301.41 points, up 35.3% from the previous period [2]. - On December 26, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1656.32 points, up 103.4 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1690 USD/TEU, up 10.24% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 2188 USD/FEU, up 9.84% from the previous period [3]. - On December 26, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1094.77 points, up 7.24% from the previous period. The NCFI for the European route was 1144.37 points, up 7.22% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1254.91 points, up 2.16% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1124.73 points, up 0.6% from the previous period. The CCFI for the European route was 1473.90 points, up 0.2% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 792.06 points, down 0.9% from the previous period [4]. b. Economic Data - The eurozone's November composite PMI preliminary value was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The service sector PMI preliminary value was 53.1, higher than the previous value and the expected value, achieving the best monthly performance in a year and a half. The eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, better than the expected - 7 and the previous - 7.4 [5]. - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [5]. - The US November S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55, higher than the expected 54.6 and the previous 54.8. The US November S&P Global composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month, with an expected 54.6 and a previous 54.6 [5]. c. Futures Market - On December 30, the main contract 2602 closed at 1795.1, down 2.08%. The trading volume was 24,800 lots, and the open interest was 27,900 lots, a decrease of 2582 lots from the previous day. Due to strong pre - holiday caution and some long - position funds leaving the market, the main contract fluctuated downward [6]. d. Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: After the main contract reached a new high, it was recommended to take full profits. Short - term investors are advised to wait and see and not to add more positions [7]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [7]. - Long - term strategy: It was recommended to take profits when each contract reached a high and wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before making further judgments [7]. e. Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [7]. f. Geopolitical Event - On December 28 (local time), the Israeli Defense Forces confirmed that last week, its delegation signed the 2026 tri - military cooperation work plan with the military representatives of Greece and Cyprus in Cyprus, as well as bilateral military cooperation plans between Israel and Greece and between Israel and Cyprus [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has no clear trading direction, with the market fluctuating. Traders should pay attention to potential reversal signals. It is recommended to take profits and then adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach [1]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core lies in the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, suggesting light - position participation or a wait - and - see attitude [1]. - Amid the volatile international situation, each contract maintains a seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is advisable to wait and see or try with a light position for the arbitrage strategy [1]. - For the long - term strategy, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts reach high points, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then determine the subsequent direction [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Index Changes - On December 26, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1094.77 points, up 7.24% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) was 1589.20 points, up 5.2%; the NCFI (European route) was 1144.37 points, up 7.22%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 962.10 points, up 4.1%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1254.91 points, up 2.16% [1]. - On December 26, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1656.32 points, up 103.4 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1124.73 points, up 0.6%; the SCFI European route price was 11690 USD/TEU, up 10.24%; the CCFI (European route) was 1473.90 points, up 0.2%; the SCFI US West route was 2188 USD/FEU, up 9.84%; the CCFI (US West route) was 792.06 points, down 0.9% [1]. 3.2 Economic Data - The eurozone's November composite PMI preliminary value was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The service sector PMI preliminary value was 53.1, higher than the previous value and the expected value, achieving the best monthly performance in a year and a half. The eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, better than the expected - 7 and the previous value of - 7.4 [1]. - In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [1]. - The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global Services PMI was 55, higher than the expected 54.6 and the previous value of 54.8. The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global Composite PMI was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month, higher than the expected 54.6 and the previous value of 54.6 [1]. 3.3 Contract Information - On December 26, the main contract 2602 closed at 1824.5, with a gain of 0.161%, a trading volume of 2.66 million lots, and an open interest of 31,800 lots, down 2401 lots from the previous day [1]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin was adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Spot freight rate increases fell short of expectations, and combined with long - position holders taking profits and leaving the market, the futures market faced downward pressure. It is recommended to take profits and then adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term [2][7] - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [6] 3. Summary by Related Content Areas 3.1 Freight Rate Index - On December 22, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1589.20 points, up 5.2% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 962.10 points, up 4.1% from the previous period [3] - On December 19, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1552.92 points, up 46.46 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1533 USD/TEU, down 0.33% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1992 USD/FEU, up 11.91% from the previous period [4] - On December 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1094.77 points, up 3.20% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1067.29 points, up 0.30% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1228.34 points, up 19.28% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1124.73 points, up 0.6% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1473.90 points, up 0.2% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 792.06 points, down 0.9% from the previous period [5] 3.2 Economic Data - The eurozone's November composite PMI preliminary value was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The service - sector PMI preliminary value was 53.1, higher than the previous value and expected value. The eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, better than the expected - 7 [6] - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [6] - The US November S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55, higher than the expected 54.6; the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month [6] 3.3 Futures Market - On December 23, the main contract 2602 closed at 1806.6, down 0.86%, with a trading volume of 41,700 lots and an open interest of 35,000 lots, a decrease of 1506 lots from the previous day [7] 3.4 Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract reached a new high, and it was recommended to take all profits. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and not to add more positions [8] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [8] - Long - term strategy: It was recommended to take profits when each contract reached a high, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [8] 3.5 Other Information - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18% [8] - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28% [8] - The daily opening position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The global shipping market is showing complex trends. The return of container ships to the Red Sea route is a significant development signal, but the actual impact on supply and demand is limited for now. The FEWB and TAWB routes are affected by factors such as ship - company capacity control, port congestion, and strong e - commerce demand, which support the freight rates at a high level during the Christmas and New Year period. In the EC market, the spot price is relatively stable, and the futures market is expected to move upward due to factors like the correction of previous extreme pessimistic expectations, coordinated price - holding by leading shipping companies, and improved supply - demand conditions [6][7][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Spot Freight Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is at 1506, up 7.79% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1118, up 0.29%. SCFI - West US is at 1780, up 14.84%; SCFIS - West US is at 924, down 3.75%; SCFI - East US is at 2652, up 14.56%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is at 1538, up 9.86%; SCFIS - Northwest Europe is at 1510, up 0.07%; SCFI - Mediterranean is at 2737, up 19.00% [5] - **Futures Contract Price**: Futures contracts like EC2506, EC2608, etc., show different degrees of decline. For example, EC2506 is at 1270.5, down 1.03% [5] - **Contract Holdings**: Holdings of different contracts also have changes. For instance, EC2606 holdings are 2272, a decrease of 34 from the previous value [5] - **Monthly Spread**: The 12 - 02 monthly spread is - 44.2, up 23.6 from the previous value; the 12 - 04 monthly spread is 515.6, up 7.7; the 02 - 04 monthly spread is 559.8, down 15.9 [5] 3.2 Market News and Impact - CMA CGM announced that its INDAMEX route will pass through the Suez Canal, indicating a significant step for container ships to return to the Red Sea route. The traffic volume through the Bab el Mandeb Strait has reached the highest level since January 2024 [6] - On the FEWB route, shipping companies strictly control capacity in December, with a low blank - sailing rate of 0.9%. European ports are congested, and strong e - commerce demand supports freight rates. On the TAWB route, ports in Northern Europe and the Mediterranean are severely congested due to labor disputes, and there is a shortage of containers and trailers in many European countries [6] 3.3 EC Market - **Market Review**: The market shows weak fluctuations. Maersk's quotes for the first week of December are 2500, and 2700 for the route to London, the same as at the beginning of December, after previously announcing an increase to 3500 [7] - **Logic Analysis**: On the spot side, the price has stabilized at 2400 US dollars. Leading shipping companies' coordinated price - holding actions have strengthened market confidence. In terms of supply and demand, European seasonal stocking drives up cargo volume, and the weekly average capacity on European routes shrinks in late December. The limited progress of Red Sea re - navigation has not increased supply negatively. These factors jointly drive the futures market to move upward [9] - **Strategy**: Try to short the 02 contract with a small position at high prices [10]