早上好！先来看最新市场情况。 11月14日纽约市场尾盘，现货黄金价格跌2.20%，报4080.04美元/盎司，本周累计上涨1.98%，11月10日 —13日从3998.67美元/盎司持续上涨至4245.23美元/盎司，随后回吐涨幅。COMEX黄金期货价格跌 2.70%，报4081.00美元/盎司，本周累涨1.75%，11月13日曾达到4250美元/盎司。 美股三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.65%，纳指涨0.13%，标普500指数跌0.05%。纳斯达克中国金龙 指数收跌超1.6%。阿里巴巴跌近4%，京东、小鹏汽车跌超4%。 消息面上，俄乌冲突持续，中东局势紧张，美国调整"对等关税"清单，详细内容如下。 以军14日对加沙地带发动空袭 据央视报道，当地时间14日，以军战斗机对加沙南部拉法实施两次空袭。 美国政府将部分农产品移出"对等关税"清单 据央视报道，当地时间11月14日，美国白宫公布总统特朗普签署的最新行政令，进一步调整"对等关 税"的适用范围，将部分农业产品排除在此前依据《对等关税行政令》所征收的附加关税之外。 行政令指出，基于国内相关产品需求与产能评估，以及政府机构最新建议等因素，特朗普认为有必要修 改 ...

南华期货集运产业周报 2025年11月09日 ——高位回调，关注货量与地缘动向 宋霁鹏（投资咨询证号：Z0016598 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心因素及策略建议 1.1 核心因素 本周市场的核心矛盾从"船司集体提涨预期"转向 "龙头船司保守定价与市场乐观情绪之间的预期差"。边际变化 上，马士基最新wk47开舱价仅大柜2365美金，远低于此前部分船司宣称的3000美金水平，这一定价策略直接 导致市场多头情绪转弱，并引发主力合约2512出现显著的多头减仓行情。现货运价方面，11月下旬报价呈现 高度分化（MSC 2365美金、YML/ONE 2500-2600美金、EMC 2710美金），整体中枢预计将持平或略高于 11月上旬的2100美金水平，但难以形成趋势性上涨动力。当前矛盾焦点在于马士基的保守定价是否会带动其 他船司下调报价，以及12月运价宣涨能否有效落地。供需层面，货量疲软格局未改，船司间的策略分化加剧 了现货市场的不确定性，预计短期盘面仍将受"现实弱"与"预期稳"之间的博弈主导。 EC各合约收盘价、SCFIS指数 点 EC2512收盘价 EC2602收盘价 EC26 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses three main factors driving the recent increase in shipping rates, including proactive price increases by shipping companies, geopolitical tensions boosting market sentiment, and strikes at key European ports disrupting supply chains [4]. Group 1: Price Increases by Shipping Companies - Major shipping companies such as Mediterranean Shipping Company, Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd have announced price increases for November, with rates for a 20-foot container rising to the range of $1,500 to $1,700 and for a 40-foot container to $2,500 to $2,700, reflecting an increase of nearly 30% compared to the end of October [8]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - China's response to the U.S. 301 investigation, which includes imposing special port fees on U.S. vessels, has significantly boosted market sentiment. The Chinese Ministry of Transport announced the implementation of these fees starting October 14, while also launching an investigation into the impact on the shipping and shipbuilding industries [10][11]. Group 3: Supply Chain Disruptions - Strikes at key European ports, specifically Rotterdam and Antwerp, have led to cargo delays and operational disruptions, resulting in capacity losses for shipping companies [13]. Group 4: Market Outlook - In the short term, current prices reflect some expectations of price increases, but further upward movement will require new catalysts, with a forecast of wide fluctuations. In the medium to long term, expectations of the Red Sea reopening may suppress the valuation of long-term contracts, maintaining a bearish outlook [5][15]. - The strategy suggests capturing structural opportunities in the market, particularly focusing on the spread between contracts 2512 and 2606 [5].