Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral. BR is also rated neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The demand for winter tires is concentrated, and the tire operating rate continues to rise. The inventory of natural rubber in China has decreased, with the cost - end support for natural rubber remaining strong, but the supply is expected to increase in the peak season. For butadiene rubber, the supply - side support remains, and the price is likely to rise but the high inventory may limit the rebound space [3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data Raw Materials and Spreads - Thailand's glue is 54.50 Thai baht/kg (+0.00), cup rubber is 52.40 Thai baht/kg (+1.10), Yunnan's glue is 14,000 yuan/ton (+0), Hainan's glue is 13,600 yuan/ton (+0), RU basis is - 685 yuan/ton (+10), NR basis is 814 yuan/ton (-4), BR basis is - 220 yuan/ton (+0) [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,650 yuan/ton (+100 yuan/ton). The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 15,000 yuan/ton (+100 yuan/ton). The price of Thai 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 1,870 US dollars/ton (+10 US dollars/ton), and that of Indonesian 20 - standard rubber is 1,760 US dollars/ton (+10 US dollars/ton). The ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical is 11,200 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton) [1] Supply - The warehousing rate of natural rubber at Qingdao Port is 5.64% (-1.99%), including 5.53% (-1.97%) for general trade and 6.22% (-2.14%) for bonded warehouses. The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber is 71.71% (-2.12%), and the output is 28,791 tons [1] Production Profit - The production profit of Thai STR20 is - 219.00 yuan/ton (-165.00), and that of Thai RSS3 is 2,544.00 yuan/ton (+70.00). The production profit of butadiene rubber is 48 yuan/ton (+206), and that of butadiene produced by carbon - four extraction method is 1,594.88 yuan/ton (-173.54) [2] Demand - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.87% (+1.91%), and that of semi - steel tires is 72.84% (+2%). The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong Province are 40.34 days (+0.39), and those of semi - steel tires are 45.26 days (+0.09) [2] Inventory - The inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port is 461,188 tons (-125,451), the social inventory of natural rubber is 1,112,557 tons (-122,953), the RU inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 124,020 tons (-10,980), and the NR futures inventory is 42,640 tons (+2,521). The port inventory of upstream butadiene is 24,600 tons (-6,200), the inventory of butadiene rubber manufacturers is 28,650 tons (+750), and the inventory of butadiene rubber traders is 4,520 tons (-340) [2] 2. Market Analysis - Natural Rubber: Rainfall in major domestic and overseas production areas is expected to decrease. Since early October, China's inventory has decreased due to the slowdown in arrivals and the increase in tire operating rates. The demand for winter tires in northern China has boosted the operating rate of steel tires. With less rain later, focus on the price trend of cup rubber in Thailand. The cost - end support for natural rubber remains strong, but the supply is expected to increase in the peak season [3] - Butadiene Rubber: Many butadiene rubber plants are under maintenance, and more plants have maintenance plans. The supply - side support remains. The demand for winter tires in northern China has boosted the operating rate of steel tires [3] 3. Strategy - RU and NR: Neutral. China's overall supply and demand may show a prosperous pattern. If the arrival volume rebounds, the depletion of social inventory will slow down or accumulate again. Currently, the valuations of RU and NR are low, and the price is expected to move within a range. Pay attention to reverse spread opportunities [4] - BR: Neutral. Supply and demand may improve. The price of upstream butadiene raw materials is expected to be stable, and the surrounding natural rubber price provides bottom support for butadiene rubber. The price of butadiene rubber is likely to rise, but the high inventory may limit the rebound space. Pay attention to positive spread opportunities between months [4]