Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical news is volatile, causing significant price fluctuations in oil, but the overall trend is upward. Attention should be paid to the rhythm [1][2]. - High - and low - sulfur fuel oils are supported by the cost of crude oil and a tightening supply, and are expected to remain at high levels. However, the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends should be noted [2]. - With the increase in domestic temperature, the demand for asphalt is gradually recovering. It is expected that asphalt prices will be strong, but it is necessary to be wary of the short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends [2][3]. - The polyester industry chain fluctuates with the cost side. The market is waiting for further developments in the situation. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and equipment changes [3]. - Natural rubber and butadiene rubber show different trends. The price of natural rubber is supported by alternative procurement, and the inventory is gradually increasing. Butadiene rubber fluctuates strongly under geopolitical influence [3][5]. - The inventory of methanol is starting to decline, but the supply recovery of Iranian equipment may suppress price increases. The Iranian situation is unclear, which may cause large - scale fluctuations in the market [5]. - The supply of polyolefins is expected to remain low, and the demand is gradually being released. However, the short - term geopolitical risk has compressed the profit space of downstream products, and subsequent demand growth may be hindered [5][6]. - PVC exports will supplement domestic demand. The overall short - selling pressure remains strong, and attention should be paid to the fulfillment of export orders and the Middle East situation [6]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI May contract closed down $1.50 to $101.38 per barrel, a 1.46% decline; Brent May contract closed up $5.57 to $118.35 per barrel, a 4.94% increase; SC2605 closed at 693.9 yuan per barrel, down 55.4 yuan per barrel, a 7.39% decline. Geopolitical news is volatile, and the overall price center is rising. The API data shows that for the week ending March 27, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.026 billion barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.21 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.04 million barrels [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 closed down 3.79% at 4446 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 closed down 4.11% at 5159 yuan per ton. Geopolitical conflicts have limited direct impact on low - sulfur fuel oil supply, but factors such as the increase in overseas diesel cracking and freight rates have affected the supply. It is expected to remain at a high level, but the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends should be noted [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2606 closed down 1.53% at 4512 yuan per ton. With the increase in temperature, demand is gradually recovering. It is expected that the overall demand will increase in April, and prices are expected to be strong, but the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends should be noted [2][3]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 6684 yuan per ton, down 1.24%; EG2605 closed at 5218 yuan per ton, down 2.63%. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. The industrial chain has different situations, and it fluctuates with the cost side. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and equipment changes [3]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contract RU2605 fell 195 yuan per ton to 16345 yuan per ton; NR fell 240 yuan per ton to 13605 yuan per ton; BR fell 375 yuan per ton to 17350 yuan per ton. The production of natural rubber in Thailand in 2025 increased by 0.6% to 4.84 million tons. The overseas production area is in a low - yield period, and domestic production areas are gradually starting to harvest. The price is supported by alternative procurement, and the inventory is gradually increasing. Butadiene rubber fluctuates strongly [3][5]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 3365 yuan per ton. The MTO arrival volume is at a low level, and the inventory is starting to decline. The supply recovery of Iranian equipment may suppress price increases, and the Iranian situation is unclear [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 9000 - 9300 yuan per ton. The supply is expected to remain low, and the demand is gradually being released. However, the short - term geopolitical risk has compressed the profit space of downstream products, and subsequent demand growth may be hindered [5][6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, the prices in East, North, and South China markets decreased. PVC exports will supplement domestic demand, and the overall short - selling pressure remains strong. Attention should be paid to the fulfillment of export orders and the Middle East situation [6]. Market News - Iran's President Pezeshkiyan reiterated Tehran's willingness to end the war, but on certain conditions. Even if the conflict ends quickly, it will take weeks or months to restore the global energy transportation system [8]. - OPEC's crude oil production in March dropped to the lowest level since the peak of the COVID - 19 pandemic in June 2020. The API data shows that for the week ending March 27, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.026 billion barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.21 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.04 million barrels. The U.S. has lifted sanctions on Russian crude oil and promised to release strategic reserves, but these measures can only make up for the supply gap in a limited time [8]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report provides price trend charts of multiple main contracts, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, and others, covering the time range from 2022 to 2026 [10][13][16][19][22][24][26]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The report presents basis trend charts of multiple main contracts, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [27][31][33]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report shows spread trend charts of multiple inter - period contracts, including fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [36][38][42][44][46][48]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The report provides spread and ratio trend charts of multiple inter - variety contracts, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, B - W spreads of crude oil, high - and low - sulfur fuel oil spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [51][54][56][58]. - **Production Profits**: The report shows production profit and processing fee trend charts of multiple products, including LLDPE, PP, PTA, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol [60][61]. Team Member Introduction - **Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute**: Zhong Meiyan, with over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research, has won multiple awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises and providing risk management and investment strategies [65]. - **Director of Energy and Chemical Research**: Du Bingqin, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain, has won multiple awards and is often interviewed by the media [66]. - **Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst**: Di Yilin, who has won multiple awards, is mainly engaged in the research of natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, bottle chips and other futures varieties, and is good at data analysis [67]. - **Methanol/Propylene/Pure Benzene PE/PP/PVC Analyst**: Peng Haibo, with years of experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading, has passed the CFA Level 3 exam and combines financial theory with industrial operations [68].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Not explicitly stated in the provided content Summary by Categories Black Series - For silicon iron (SF603), the futures price is 5978, the basis is 104, the spot price is 5874, the basis rate is 1.80%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 71.50% [1] - For silicon manganese (SM603), the futures price is 6600, the basis is 156, the spot price is 6444, the basis rate is 2.40%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 57.30% [1] - For rebar (RB2605), the futures price is 3121, the basis is 99, the spot price is 3220, the basis rate is 3.20%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 47.10% [1] - For hot - rolled coil (HC2605), the futures price is 3280, the basis is - 14, the spot price is 3294, the basis rate is - 0.40%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 13.60% [1] - For iron ore (I2605), the futures price is 808, the basis is 28, the spot price is 836, the basis rate is 3.40%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 23.50% [1] - For coke (J2605), the futures price is 1702, the basis is 54, the spot price is 1756, the basis rate is 3.20%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 86.80% [1] - For main coking coal (S1.3 G75, Mongolian No.5) at Shaheyi, the futures price is 1149, the basis is 130, the spot price is 1278, the basis rate is 11.30%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 61.60% [1] Non - ferrous Metals - For copper (CU2605), the futures price is 95340, the basis is 260, the spot price is 95600, the basis rate is 0.27%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 77.70% [1] - For aluminum (AL2605), the futures price is 24610, the basis is - 265, the spot price is 24875, the basis rate is - 1.07%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 8.10% [1] - For alumina (AO2605), the futures price is 2788, the basis is - 39, the spot price is 2827, the basis rate is - 1.39%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 25.60% [1] - For zinc (ZN2605), the futures price is 23480, the basis is - 120, the spot price is 23360, the basis rate is - 0.51%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 32.50% [1] - For tin (SN2605), the futures price is 368000, the basis is 3550, the spot price is 371550, the basis rate is 0.96%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 91.90% [1] - For nickel (NI2605), the futures price is 135000, the basis is 220, the spot price is 134780, the basis rate is 0.16%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 65.80% [1] - For stainless steel (SS2605), the futures price is 14160, the basis is 410, the spot price is 14400, the basis rate is 2.90%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 70.60% [1] - For lithium carbonate (LC2605), the futures price is 157200, the basis is 5800, the spot price is 163000, the basis rate is 3.69%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 97.80% [1] - For industrial silicon (SI2605), the futures price is 8322, the basis is 795, the spot price is 9150, the basis rate is 9.52%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 53.80% [1] Precious Metals - For gold (AU2606), the futures price is 1015.7, the basis is - 4.4, the spot price is 1020.10, the basis rate is - 0.43%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 9.30% [1] - For silver (AG2606), the futures price is 18031.0, the basis is - 95.0, the spot price is 18126.0, the basis rate is - 0.52%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 7.00% [1] Agricultural Products - For soybean meal (M2605), the futures price is 2915, the basis is 205, the spot price is 3120, the basis rate is 7.03%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 61.90% [1] - For soybean oil (Y2605), the futures price is 8668, the basis is 262, the spot price is 8930, the basis rate is 3.02%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 55.40% [1] - For palm oil (P2605), the futures price is 9866, the basis is - 46, the spot price is 9820, the basis rate is - 0.47%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 13.30% [1] - For rapeseed meal (RM605), the futures price is 2299, the basis is 11, the spot price is 2310, the basis rate is 0.48%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 49.70% [1] - For rapeseed oil (OI605), the futures price is 9884, the basis is 516, the spot price is 10400, the basis rate is 5.22%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 91.70% [1] - For corn (C2605), the futures price is 2351, the basis is 29, the spot price is 2380, the basis rate is 1.23%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 49.00% [1] - For corn starch (CS2605), the futures price is 2745, the basis is 155, the spot price is 2900, the basis rate is 5.65%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 76.90% [1] - For live pigs (LH2605), the futures price is 9770, the basis is - 420, the spot price is 10190, the basis rate is - 4.30%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 28.10% [1] - For eggs (D2605), the futures price is 3400, the basis is - 40, the spot price is 3440, the basis rate is - 1.16%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 36.40% [1] - For cotton, the futures price is 15295, the basis is 1352, the spot price is 16650, the basis rate is 8.86%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 91.00% [1] - For sugar (SR605), the futures price is 5398, the basis is 62, the spot price is 5460, the basis rate is 1.15%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 9.70% [1] - For apples (AP605), the futures price is 9800, the basis is - 26, the spot price is 9826, the basis rate is - 0.26%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 23.00% [1] - For red dates (CJ605), the futures price is 7900, the basis is - 850, the spot price is 8750, the basis rate is - 9.71%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 48.60% [1] Energy and Chemicals - For paraxylene (PX605), the futures price is 9700.0, the basis is 268.8, the spot price is 9968.77, the basis rate is 2.77%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 92.30% [1] - For PTA (TA605), the futures price is 6684.0, the basis is - 44.0, the spot price is 6640.0, the basis rate is - 0.66%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 42.60% [1] - For ethylene glycol (MEG), the futures price is 5218.0, the basis is 147.0, the spot price is 5365.0, the basis rate is 2.82%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 94.50% [1] - For ethanol (EG2605), the futures price is 8246.0, the basis is 74.0, the spot price is 8320.0, the basis rate is 0.90%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 62.90% [1] - For styrene (EB2605), the futures price is 10597.0, the basis is 158.0, the spot price is 10755.0, the basis rate is 1.49%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 60.30% [1] - For methanol (MA605), the futures price is 3229.0, the basis is 116.0, the spot price is 3345.0, the basis rate is 3.59%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 84.10% [1] - For urea (UR605), the futures price is 1874.0, the basis is 26.0, the spot price is 1900.0, the basis rate is 1.39%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 25.60% [1] - For LLDPE (L2605), the futures price is 8614.0, the basis is 86.0, the spot price is 8700.0, the basis rate is 1.00%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 52.90% [1] - For PP (PP2605), the futures price is 9103.0, the basis is 172.0, the spot price is 9275.0, the basis rate is 1.89%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 72.50% [1] - For PVC (V2605), the futures price is 5353.0, the basis is - 133.0, the spot price is 5220.0, the basis rate is - 2.48%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 45.10% [1] - For caustic soda (SH605), the futures price is 2340.0, the basis is - 36.9, the spot price is 2303.1, the basis rate is - 1.58%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 41.10% [1] - For LPG (PG2605), the futures price is 6339.0, the basis is 1009.0, the spot price is 7348.0, the basis rate is 15.92%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 95.50% [1] - For asphalt (BU2606), the futures price is 4512.0, the basis is - 92.0, the spot price is 4420.0, the basis rate is - 2.04%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 32.80% [1] - For butadiene rubber (BR2605), the futures price is 17350.0, the basis is 1150.0, the spot price is 18500.0, the basis rate is 6.63%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 99.50% [1] - For glass (FG605), the futures price is 1019.0, the basis is - 67.0, the spot price is 952.0, the basis rate is - 7.04%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 56.09% [1] - For soda ash (SA605), the futures price is 1177.0, the basis is - 20.0, the spot price is 1157.0, the basis rate is - 1.73%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 46.84% [1] - For pure benzene (BZ2605), the futures price is 8790.0, the basis is 150.0, the spot price is 8940.0, the basis rate is 1.71%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 98.80% [1] - For propylene (PL2605), the futures price is 8795.0, the basis is - 45.0, the spot price is 8750.0, the basis rate is - 0.51%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 36.90% [1] - For bottle chips (PR2605), the futures price is 8525.0, the basis is 335.0, the spot price is 8190.0, the basis rate is 4.09%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 98.50% [1] - For natural rubber (RU2605), the futures price is 16345.0, the basis is - 45.0, the spot price is 16300.0, the basis rate is - 0.28%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 90.35% [1] Financial Assets - For IF2606.CFE, the futures price is 4450.0493, the basis is - 74.2493, the spot price is 4375.8, the basis rate is - 1.70%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 2.50% [1] - For IH2606.CFE, the futures price is 2837.3064, the basis is - 22.9064, the spot price is 2814.4, the basis rate is - 0.81%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 5.70% [1] - For IC2606.CFE, the futures price is 7753.7234, the basis is - 193.1234, the spot price is 7560.6, the basis rate is - 2.55%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 0.30% [1] - For IM2606.CFE, the futures price is 7619.8503, the basis is - 240.4503, the spot price is 7379.4, the basis rate

Core Viewpoint - The successful commissioning of Sinopec's Gaoqiao Petrochemical ABS production line marks an increase in annual capacity from 200,000 tons to 300,000 tons, enhancing product quality and market share [2]. Group 1: Production Capacity and Technology - The new ABS production line utilizes advanced and mature process technologies, ensuring stable and efficient production capabilities along with precise product quality control [2]. - The capacity expansion allows for a broader range of ABS product types, emphasizing high-end and customized features to improve quality and efficiency [2]. Group 2: Market Demand and Applications - ABS is a crucial general engineering plastic with extensive applications in automotive manufacturing, home appliances, construction materials, and daily consumer goods, supporting high-quality development in the manufacturing sector [2]. - The capacity increase is expected to better meet the market demand for high-quality ABS, aiding the transformation and upgrading of downstream industries [2]. Group 3: Company Background - Gaoqiao Petrochemical, established in November 1981 and part of China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, occupies an area of 4.2 square kilometers and operates over 50 production units [2]. - The company produces a variety of refined oil and chemical products, including automotive gasoline, diesel, liquefied petroleum gas, industrial phenol, acetone, ABS, and butadiene rubber [2]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The series of high-performance ABS products developed by Gaoqiao Petrochemical has achieved import substitution in the low-gloss sector, with multiple grades validated by leading downstream customers, and is widely used in new energy vehicles, electronics, and high-end panels [3]. - By 2025, sales of Gaoqiao Petrochemical's ABS and styrene-butadiene rubber products are projected to reach a historical high [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: Not clearly defined in a standard star - rating form [1] - Natural rubber: Not clearly defined in a standard star - rating form [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides an analysis of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and gives corresponding investment suggestions based on the market conditions of each commodity [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices declined, and the Wenhua Commodity Index dropped significantly. Spot basis remained stable, but spot trading demand was weak. As of March 15, the national commercial cotton inventory was 523.02 million tons, a decrease of 24.68 million tons from the end of February, and 5.31 million tons higher than the same period last year. The domestic peak season showed good performance, and the inventory of cotton yarn and grey cloth was well - digested. The short - term pure cotton yarn sales slowed down. Mid - term, Zhengzhou cotton maintains a bullish strategy [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices fluctuated. The market focuses on Brazil's sugar production forecast. After the rainy season, the rainfall in the central - southern main producing areas of Brazil is low, and the sugar - making ratio in the new season is expected to decline, so the sugar production in the 26/27 season will decrease. In China, the production progress in Guangxi this year is slow, and the production is lower than the same period last year. However, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season. The sugar sales of sugar mills this year are poor. In general, the domestic supply - demand is relatively loose in the 25/26 season, and the sugar price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price remained stable. The purchasing enthusiasm of merchants in the northwest producing areas decreased, and the trading volume in Shandong was small. As of March 26, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 3.8947 million tons, a 5% year - on - year decrease. The trading logic is mainly on the demand side. The demand in the northwest producing areas is good, but the apples in Shandong have poor quality and high purchase prices, which may affect the de - stocking speed. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - The futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber WR, and butadiene rubber BR all declined, and the domestic spot prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber also decreased. The global natural rubber supply is entering the production - increasing period. The domestic butadiene rubber device operating rate continued to decline rapidly. The domestic tire operating rate increased slightly, and the production and transportation cost pressure of domestic tire enterprises increased. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased to 69.14 million tons. It is recommended to wait and see and grasp the cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] Pulp - The pulp futures rebounded but then declined. The domestic pulp port inventory is still at a high level. As of March 26, 2026, the sample inventory of China's main pulp ports was 2.395 million tons, a 980,000 - ton increase from the previous period, a 4.3% month - on - month increase. The overseas quotation of pulp is strong, and the long - term cost has certain support. The domestic pulp demand is generally average, and the procurement of high - price broad - leaf pulp is cautious. The short - term pulp may maintain a low - level range - bound [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price remained stable. The overseas quotation increased significantly, and the domestic spot price was relatively weak. The downstream demand increased, and the port outbound volume increased. As of March 27, the national port log total inventory was 2.89 million cubic meters, a 19.72% year - on - year decrease. The low inventory supports the price to a certain extent. It is recommended to wait and see [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is the core factor affecting the market, with significant impacts on the prices of various commodities and financial products. The short - term price fluctuations of many commodities are large, and long - term trends depend on the development of the situation in the Middle East [2]. - The Fed's stance on interest rates and inflation also has an impact on the market. Powell's remarks have suppressed the expectation of interest rate hikes [2]. 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs Energy and Petrochemicals - **Crude Oil**: The possibility of a short - term negotiation agreement between Iran and the US is extremely low. The geopolitical situation is unclear, and the short - term oil price has a large two - way fluctuation risk. The long - term trend depends on the smoothness of the Strait of Hormuz [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors are the core trading logic. The supply shock in the Middle East has not eased, and the crude - oil related products have strong fundamental support. The absolute price of fuel oil is firm, but the cracking spread has recently declined [20]. - **Asphalt**: Due to concerns about imported raw materials, asphalt supply has shrunk. The price follows the trend of crude oil, and the fundamental improvement gives it upward elasticity [21]. - **Urea**: The market continues to be in high - level consolidation. The daily production has slightly declined, and the agricultural demand is in a phased gap. The industrial downstream support is acceptable. Under the influence of policies, the market is expected to remain generally stable with minor fluctuations [22]. - **Methanol**: The import volume has decreased, the downstream device start - up has increased, and the market is expected to remain strong. Attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical conflicts and the sustainability of downstream high profits [23]. - **Pure Benzene**: The domestic petroleum benzene device has many shutdowns and load reductions, and the import has weakened. The port inventory is in the seasonal destocking cycle. It follows the raw material fluctuations, and the situation evolution and supply reduction should be continuously monitored [24]. - **Benzene Ethylene**: The cost - side support exists and dominates the market. The supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken, but the expectation of supply reduction is still fermenting [25]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply of propylene is expected to decline, and the demand has improved. The supply pressure of polyethylene is not large, and the demand has increased slightly. The supply of polypropylene has tightened, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak operation, and the export is expected to be good. Caustic soda is in a weak and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical impact [27]. - **PX & PTA**: The US - Iran situation is tense, and the prices of PX and PTA are volatile. PTA is burdened by inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The load has slightly decreased, the port inventory has increased, and the downstream recovery is slow. The supply is expected to tighten, and it is expected to be in high - level oscillation [29]. Metals - **Copper**: The market is still evaluating the ground - combat risk in the Middle East. The overall downward adjustment risk should be noted, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [3]. - **Aluminum**: The overseas shortage expectation has increased, but the short - term war situation is difficult to ease. It is in high - level oscillation and should not be chased up [4]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with the aluminum price, and the spread with Shanghai aluminum remains around one thousand yuan [5]. - **Alumina**: The domestic operating capacity is temporarily stable, and the surplus situation has improved. The cost has increased with the ocean freight. The new plants in Guangxi are about to be put into production, and it is in oscillation waiting for the Guinean mining policy to be clear [6]. - **Zinc**: The overseas mine supply is tight, the cost support is strong, and the domestic downstream demand shows the characteristics of the peak season. The rebound space is limited, and it is expected to be in range oscillation [7]. - **Lead**: The price is in low - level consolidation. The supply and demand contradictions are limited, and it is advisable to try to go long at a low level according to the cost logic [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The market is under pressure from the strong US dollar. The demand is less than expected, the inventory is high, and it is in a weak oscillation [9]. - **Tin**: The price is in a downward trend. The consumption premium has cooled, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price is in a strong oscillation, and the short - term view is to maintain oscillation. Attention should be paid to the demand change in April [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The overall demand is weak, and the price upward drive depends on the supply side. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is under pressure, and there is still downward pressure in the medium term [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is expected to recover, the demand is improving marginally, and the disk is expected to oscillate [14]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream iron - water production has increased slightly. The disk is affected by the geopolitical conflict and is easy to rise but difficult to fall [15][16]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost is expected to rise, the demand has increased, and the overall inventory has decreased. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical conflict [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is in a strong oscillation, the demand has resilience, the supply has decreased slightly, and the inventory has decreased [18]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The expected US new - season soybean planting area has increased. The domestic soybean crushing volume is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to multiple factors such as the US - Iran situation [33]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil is strong due to the expected B50 policy in Indonesia. Attention should be paid to the procurement trend of Indonesian methanol, the US planting report, and the climate [34]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The supply is expected to increase, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [35]. - **Domestic Soybeans**: The price has stopped falling and rebounded. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Middle East situation on energy prices [36]. - **Corn**: The price may be affected by the increase in wheat auctions. The futures are weak, and attention should be paid to multiple factors [37]. - **Hogs**: The far - month contracts are weak, the industry capacity reduction power is increasing, and the supply - demand situation is loose throughout the year [38]. - **Eggs**: The egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline in the next five months, and the spot price has the basis to strengthen. Attention should be paid to whether the futures price stabilizes and rises at a low level [39]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price has risen, and the planting area is expected to decrease. The domestic cotton inventory is at a relatively high level, and the medium - term strategy is to be bullish [40]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the new - season Brazilian sugar production is expected to decline. Domestically, it is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, and attention should be paid to the weather [41]. - **Apples**: The futures price has corrected at a high level, and the trading logic is mainly on the demand side. It is advisable to wait and see [42]. - **Timber**: The supply is expected to be tight in the short term, the demand is recovering, and the low inventory supports the price. It is advisable to wait and see [43]. - **Pulp**: The fundamentals are average, the port inventory is at a high level, and it is expected to be in low - level range oscillation [44]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market has bottomed out and rebounded. The short - term focus is on whether there is positive progress in geopolitical issues. It is advisable to go long on dips for broad - based indexes [45]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures have risen significantly, and the curve is expected to continue to steepen [46]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The SCFIS European route index has risen. The supply in early April is still relatively loose, and the airlines may try to raise prices in late April. The near - and far - month contracts have different trends [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Paper pulp: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish or bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish or bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Apple: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish or bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor market operability, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish or bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor market operability, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor market operability, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] 2. Core Views - For the cotton and cotton yarn market, the medium - term strategy for Zhengzhou cotton is bullish, but concerns exist about potential over - advance consumption. Attention should be paid to subsequent order performance and new - season planting [2]. - In the sugar market, the 25/26 domestic sugar supply - demand situation is relatively loose, and short - term sugar prices are expected to remain volatile [3]. - Regarding the apple market, the trading logic is centered on the demand side. Due to the low cost - effectiveness of Shandong apples, prices are struggling to rise, and the current operation strategy is to wait and see [4]. - In the 20 - rubber, natural rubber, and synthetic rubber markets, geopolitical risks are rising, with cost as the main driver, demand relatively stable, and the strategy is to wait and see while seizing cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [5]. - For the paper pulp market, short - term pulp prices are likely to remain in a low - level volatile range [6]. - In the timber market, low inventory provides some support for prices, and the current operation strategy is to wait and see [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton maintained a narrow - range oscillation, and spot basis was generally stable. Spot trading demand was weak, but cotton sales volume and progress were significantly better. As of March 15, the national commercial cotton inventory was 523.02 million tons, with a decrease of 24.68 million tons from the end of February, and 5.31 million tons more than the same period last year [2]. - The domestic peak season showed a good performance, with continuous increases in the startup rate, and good inventory digestion of cotton yarn and grey cloth. Recently, the sales of pure - cotton yarn have slowed down [2]. Sugar - Last week, US sugar oscillated. In Brazil, less rainfall in the central - southern main producing areas after the rainy season was unfavorable for sugarcane growth. The sugar - to - alcohol ratio has significantly adjusted, and the sugar - production ratio in the new season is expected to decline, resulting in a decrease in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season [3]. - In China, Guangxi's production progress this year is slow, with lower - than - expected output. However, there are strong expectations of an increase in Guangxi's output in the 25/26 season. This year, sugar mills have poor sales due to strong bearish market expectations [3]. Apple - The futures price oscillated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. In the northwest producing areas, the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants decreased. In Shandong, trading volume was low. Merchants in Shaanxi and Gansu were mainly looking for high - quality goods, but the remaining high - quality goods were scarce [4]. - As of March 26, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 3.8947 million tons, a 5% year - on - year decrease. Last week, the national cold - storage apple outbound volume was 294,500 tons, a 9.66% year - on - year decrease [4]. 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures price of natural rubber RU oscillated, the futures price of 20 - rubber NR rose slightly, and the futures price of butadiene rubber BR fell slightly. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable, and the synthetic rubber spot price generally rose. The overseas port price of butadiene fell slightly, and the raw material market price in Thailand mostly rose [5]. - Globally, the natural rubber supply has entered the increasing - production period from the low - production period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate continued to decline significantly last week, with many plants under maintenance or reducing production loads. The upstream butadiene plant operating rate also continued to decline [5]. - Last week, the domestic tire operating rate increased slightly, with increased production and transportation cost pressures for domestic tire enterprises. The inventory of all - steel tires in Shandong continued to decline rapidly, while the inventory of semi - steel tires began to decline again [5]. - Last week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 685,600 tons, with increases in both bonded - area inventory and general - trade inventory. The social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased to 17,000 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory decreased to 23,000 tons [5]. Paper Pulp - Today, the pulp futures price fell slightly, and the spot price remained stable. The domestic pulp port inventory was still at a high level. As of March 26, 2026, the sample inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 2.395 million tons, an increase of 98,000 tons from the previous period, a 4.3% month - on - month increase [6]. - Overseas pulp quotations were strong, providing some support for long - term costs. The overseas quotation of broad - leaf pulp increased in March, while that of coniferous pulp decreased. Domestic pulp demand was generally average, with cautious purchases of high - priced broad - leaf pulp, and poor downstream base - paper prices and profits [6]. Timber - The futures price was strong. The mainstream spot price remained stable. The overseas quotation increased significantly, while the domestic spot price was relatively weak, and the future arrival volume might be relatively low [7]. - Downstream demand increased, and the port outbound volume increased. Last week, the average daily outbound volume of national ports was 61,400 cubic meters, an 8.36% year - on - year decrease. As of March 27, the total national port timber inventory was 2.89 million cubic meters, a 19.72% year - on - year decrease [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The report presents the spot prices, futures prices, basis, historical quantiles, and basis rates of various commodities on March 30, 2026, covering multiple sectors such as metals, agriculture, energy, and finance. 3. Summary by Commodity Sectors Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF603)**: Spot price is 6012, down 0.97%; futures price is 5978, with a basis of -34 and a basis rate of -1.22% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM603)**: Spot price is 6500, futures price is 6580, and the basis is -80 [1]. - **Rebar (RB2605)**: Spot price is 3220, futures price is 3124, down 0.27%, with a basis of 96 and a historical quantile of 46.20% [1]. - **Hot Rolled Coil (HC2605)**: Spot price is 3290, futures price is 3299, with a basis of -9 and a historical quantile of 15.80% [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2605)**: Spot price is 27, up 3.29%; futures price is 812, up 22.80%, with a basis of -27 and a historical quantile of 75.86% [1]. - **Coke (J2605)**: Spot price is 1752, futures price is 1767, up 0.83%, with a basis of -15 and a historical quantile of 75.86% [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2605)**: Spot price is 1333, futures price is 1219, up 9.35%, with a basis of 114 and a historical quantile of 57.20% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2605)**: Spot price is 95930, futures price is 95320, with a basis of 610 and a historical quantile of 12.91% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2605)**: Spot price is 23935, futures price is 23810, with a basis of 125 and a historical quantile of 27.08% [1]. - **Alumina (AO2605)**: Spot price is 2785, futures price is 2930, with a basis of -145 and a historical quantile of 14.09% [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2605)**: Spot price is 23380, futures price is 23140, with a basis of 240 and a historical quantile of 10.00% [1]. - **Tin (SN2605)**: Spot price is 362460, futures price is 353400, with a basis of 9060 and a historical quantile of 1.66% [1]. - **Nickel (NI2605)**: Spot price is 137100, futures price is 136450, with a basis of 650 and a historical quantile of 22.29% [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2605)**: Spot price is 14500, futures price is 14390, with a basis of 110 and a historical quantile of 49.14% [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2605)**: Spot price is 168440, futures price is 158000, down 6.20%, with a basis of 10440 and a historical quantile of 2.64% [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (SI2605)**: Spot price is 9200, futures price is 8652, up 6.67%, with a basis of 548 and a historical quantile of 37.78% [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2606)**: Spot price is 992.5, futures price is 998.66, with a basis of -6.16 and a historical quantile of -0.62% [1]. - **Silver (AG2606)**: Spot price is 17467, futures price is 17489, with a basis of -22 and a historical quantile of 51.00% [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: Spot price is 3160, futures price is 2937, up 7.59%, with a basis of 223 and a historical quantile of 64.60% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (Y2605)**: Spot price is 8940, futures price is 8688, up 2.90%, with a basis of 252 and a historical quantile of 53.10% [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2605)**: Spot price is 9670, futures price is 9768, down 1.00%, with a basis of -98 and a historical quantile of 1.90% [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM2605)**: Spot price is 2330, futures price is 2315, with a basis of 15 and a historical quantile of 50.00% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (Oleos)**: Spot price is 10380, futures price is 9877, up 5.09%, with a basis of 503 and a historical quantile of 91.30% [1]. - **Corn (C2605)**: Spot price is 2390, futures price is 2369, with a basis of 21 and a historical quantile of 44.50% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2605)**: Spot price is 2755, futures price is 2900, down 4.67%, with a basis of -145 and a historical quantile of 73.30% [1]. - **Live Hogs (H2605)**: Spot price is 9965, futures price is 9500, with a basis of 465 and a historical quantile of 27.30% [1]. - **Eggs (JD2605)**: Spot price is 3502, futures price is 3290, down 6.05%, with a basis of 212 and a historical quantile of 21.20% [1]. - **Cotton (CF2605)**: Spot price is 16600, futures price is 15395, up 7.83%, with a basis of 1205 and a historical quantile of 82.40% [1]. - **Sugar (SR2605)**: Spot price is 5464, futures price is 5480, up 0.29%, with a basis of -16 and a historical quantile of -1.68% [1]. - **Apples (AP2605)**: Spot price is 9967, futures price is 9800, with a basis of 167 and a historical quantile of 16.60% [1]. - **Red Dates (CJ2605)**: Spot price is 8870, futures price is 7900, down 10.94%, with a basis of 970 and a historical quantile of 41.60% [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Paraxylene (PX2605)**: Spot price is 10059.9, futures price is 9916, with a basis of 143.9 and a historical quantile of 71.40% [1]. - **PTA (TA2605)**: Spot price is 6876, futures price is 6760, down 1.69%, with a basis of 116 and a historical quantile of 14.40% [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2605)**: Spot price is 5279, futures price is 5005, down 0.98%, with a basis of 274 and a historical quantile of 0.10% [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF2606)**: Spot price is 8392, futures price is 8310, down 0.98%, with a basis of 82 and a historical quantile of 22.20% [1]. - **Styrene (EB2605)**: Spot price is 10800, futures price is 10624, with a basis of 176 and a historical quantile of 64.90% [1]. - **Methanol (MA2605)**: Spot price is 3360, futures price is 3296, up 1.94%, with a basis of 64 and a historical quantile of 69.40% [1]. - **Urea (UR2605)**: Spot price is 1900, futures price is 1877, up 1.23%, with a basis of 23 and a historical quantile of 24.70% [1]. - **LLDPE (L2605)**: Spot price is 8868, futures price is 8600, down 3.02%, with a basis of 268 and a historical quantile of 0.40% [1]. - **PP (PP2605)**: Spot price is 9313, futures price is 9100, up 1.20%, with a basis of 213 and a historical quantile of -2.29% [1]. - **PVC (V2605)**: Spot price is 5615, futures price is 5450, down 2.94%, with a basis of 165 and a historical quantile of 36.80% [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SHEOS)**: Spot price is 2442, futures price is 2303.1, down 5.69%, with a basis of 138.9 and a historical quantile of 27.30% [1]. - **LPG (PG2605)**: Spot price is 6759, futures price is 7198, up 6.50%, with a basis of -439 and a historical quantile of 61.90% [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2606)**: Spot price is 4532, futures price is 4330, up 12.60%, with a basis of 202 and a historical quantile of -4.46% [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2605)**: Spot price is 18500, futures price is 17840, with a basis of 660 and a historical quantile of 92.60% [1]. - **Float Glass (FG2605)**: Spot price is 960, futures price is 879, down 8.44%, with a basis of 81 and a historical quantile of 49.36% [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA2605)**: Spot price is 1229, futures price is 1209, down 1.65%, with a basis of 20 and a historical quantile of 46.84% [1]. - **Pure Benzene (BZ2605)**: Spot price is 8880, futures price is 8355, down 5.91%, with a basis of 525 and a historical quantile of -1.20% [1]. - **Propylene (PL2605)**: Spot price is 8320, futures price is 8315, up 1.21%, with a basis of 5 and a historical quantile of 92.00% [1]. - **Bottle Chips (PR2605)**: Spot price is 8421, futures price is 8320, up 1.21%, with a basis of 101 and a historical quantile of 92.00% [1]. - **Natural Rubber (RU2605)**: Spot price is 16510, futures price is 16400, down 0.67%, with a basis of 110 and a historical quantile of 85.11% [1]. Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures**: - **IF2606.CFE**: Spot price is 4502.5698, futures price is 4427.4, down 1.70%, with a basis of -75.1698 and a historical quantile of 2.40% [1]. - **IH2606.CFE**: Spot price is 2837.3064, futures price is 2814.4, down 0.81%, with a basis of 22.9064 and a historical quantile of 5.70% [1]. - **IC2606.CFE**: Spot price is 7737.6144, futures price is 7559.2, down 2.36%, with a basis of 178.4144 and a historical quantile of 0.40% [1]. - **IM2606.CFE**: Spot price is 7746.3131, futures price is 7523.8, down 2.96%, with a basis of 222.5131 and a historical quantile of 0.04% [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: - **TS2606**: Spot price is 100.11, futures price is 97.62, up 0.08%, with a basis of 2.49 and a historical quantile of 44.40% [1]. - **TF2606**: Spot price is 105.98, futures price is 100.24, up 0.09%, with a basis of 5.74 and a historical quantile of 42.20% [1]. - **T2606**: Spot price is 108.23, futures price is 99.88, up 0.10%, with a basis of 8.35 and a historical quantile of 31.10% [1]. - **TL2606**: Spot price is 122.03, futures price is 111.18, up 0.46%, with a basis of 10.85 and a historical quantile of 67.50% [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of natural rubber is expected to increase while demand remains stable in the second quarter. The price of natural rubber may maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern. The supply of butadiene rubber is expected to contract while demand remains stable, with increased cost - side disturbances. The prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber may further diverge [62]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Price: Futures Market Fluctuates Widely - The uncertainty of weather in the rubber - producing areas will increase the volatility of rubber prices. International trade tariff barriers may lead to a slowdown in external demand, while domestic demand aims to keep car sales stable in the second quarter under the guidance of the stable - growth work plan [62]. 3.2 Supply: El Niño Event, Increased Uncertainty in Weather - **Global Natural Rubber Production**: In the second quarter of 2026, global natural rubber production will increase quarter - on - quarter. For example, in January 2026, the production of ANRPC members was 1,055.9 thousand tons, with a year - on - year increase of 8.3% [5][7]. - **Overseas Main - producing Countries' Exports**: The total exports of overseas main - producing countries increased year - on - year [9]. - **Demand in Europe, America, Japan, and South Korea**: The demand for natural rubber in Europe, America, Japan, and South Korea is limited [10]. - **China's Rubber Imports**: From January to February 2026, China imported a total of 1.404 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. However, the import volume in February was 601,000 tons. The import volume of China's rubber is expected to show an increasing trend in the second quarter [13]. - **Supply of Butadiene and Butadiene Rubber**: The capacity utilization rate of butadiene decreased. The net import of butadiene rubber turned into net export. In February 2026, the export volume of butadiene rubber was 24,896 tons, exceeding the import volume of 24,106 tons [16][22][23]. 3.3 Demand: Supported by Stable Growth - **Tire Demand**: The demand growth momentum of semi - steel tires is restricted. The start - up rate of all - steel tires increased and the inventory decreased slightly, while the start - up rate of semi - steel tires slowed down and the inventory remained high. From January to February, the cumulative export volume of rubber tires reached 1.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% [26][31][35]. - **Automobile Production and Sales**: Automobile production and sales are stable with a slight increase. The demand for heavy - duty trucks decreased seasonally in February [36][37]. 3.4 Inventory: Inflection Point in the Accumulation of Natural Rubber Inventory - **Qingdao Natural Rubber Inventory**: The inventory in Qingdao is accumulating. As of March 13, 2026, the total inventory was 692,100 tons [39][40]. - **Exchange Inventory of Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: As of March 27, the warehouse receipt of natural rubber was 125,410 tons, and the total exchange inventory was 137,630 tons. The warehouse receipt of No. 20 rubber was 43,646 tons, and the total exchange inventory was 45,763 tons [44]. 3.5 Position: Low Position - **RU Contract Position**: The position of the RU contract is presented in the form of charts, showing the position changes of different contracts over time [45]. - **NR and BR Positions**: As of March 20, 2026, the total position of natural rubber was 209,074 lots, the total position of No. 20 rubber was 93,261 lots, and the total position of BR was 114,718 lots [47]. 3.6 Options - **Natural Rubber Options**: The historical volatility and the ratio of put - to - call positions and trading volumes of natural rubber options are presented [50][52]. - **Butadiene Rubber Options**: The historical volatility and the ratio of put - to - call positions and trading volumes of butadiene rubber options are presented [56][59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The conflict between the US and Iran has led to a significant increase in the prices of oil and chemical products. Butadiene and butadiene rubber have risen sharply due to increased costs. Attention should be paid to the spot prices of SC and Oman crude oil, while Brent and WTI crude oil have weak reference value. Asian supply is mainly pegged to the spot price of Oman crude oil, and the current spot premium is high [11]. - Currently, the increase in crude oil prices is much greater than that of downstream products. Downstream industries, especially those in Japan and South Korea, have gradually reduced their production loads, leading to a decrease in supply. As a result, crude oil prices will gradually be transmitted to downstream products, including a significant catch - up increase in butadiene rubber [11]. - The logic behind butadiene rubber is that Japan and South Korea prioritize (finished) oil over chemicals. Although demand is also suppressed by high oil prices, Asian refineries have reduced their operating rates due to a lack of raw materials or losses. This has led to a sharp contraction in the supply of intermediate chemicals from refineries and a catch - up increase in prices. The supply of butadiene has decreased significantly. China has reduced its imports of butadiene from South Korea, while South Korea and Japan have increased their exports, driving up the price of butadiene and, in turn, butadiene rubber [11]. - The operating rates of butadiene refineries and downstream butadiene rubber factories are decreasing, while the operating rate of downstream tire factories fluctuates slightly, and raw material procurement is on the sidelines. Macro - funds' sentiment temporarily dominates the market. It is expected that there will be significant short - term fluctuations, and the market will later return to being driven by fundamentals [11]. - The fundamentals of natural rubber suggest that it is prone to decline and difficult to rise after the winter storage period in the first half of the year. A sharp increase in crude oil prices will lead to a significant deterioration in demand expectations. However, the expectation of capital allocation to commodities limits the downside space. The market's expectation of state - reserve purchases has increased the upside potential of RU [11]. - RU as a whole fluctuates widely within a range, and flexible responses and risk control are recommended. If the negotiation between the US, Israel, and Iran is successful, the prices of oil and chemical products may fall rapidly. Butadiene rubber will decline due to the rapid drop in butadiene costs, driving down RU and NR rapidly. If the cost drops sharply and the refining profit improves, and mid - stream refineries resume production and increase their operating rates, it will lead to a rapid decline in BR, driving down RU and NR rapidly. Buying put options on BR can be considered to hedge against the risk of price decline [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendations - The conflict between the US and Iran has caused significant price increases in oil and chemical products. Butadiene and butadiene rubber have risen due to cost increases. Attention should be paid to the spot prices of SC and Oman crude oil [11]. - The operating rates of butadiene refineries and downstream butadiene rubber factories are decreasing, while the operating rate of downstream tire factories fluctuates slightly. Macro - funds' sentiment temporarily dominates the market [11]. - It is expected that there will be significant short - term fluctuations, and the market will later return to being driven by fundamentals. The fundamentals of natural rubber suggest it is prone to decline after the winter storage period in the first half of the year. The expectation of state - reserve purchases has increased the upside potential of RU [11]. - If the negotiation between the US, Israel, and Iran is successful, the prices of oil and chemical products may fall rapidly. Buying put options on BR can be considered to hedge against the risk of price decline [13]. - The industry's demand is normal, with the full - steel tire factory operating rate at 70.75% (0.03%). After the Spring Festival holiday, the resumption of work has returned to normal. The inventory in the exchange and Qingdao is 88.63 (0.79) million tons. The supply in Hainan and Yunnan is expected to start tapping in late March, while most of Thailand has stopped tapping. There are still differences in the medium - term supply expectations, with some expecting a slight fluctuation and others expecting an increase of 15 - 25 million tons [16]. - The market expects subsequent state - reserve purchase plans. The market's long - position logic is mainly based on macro - expectations and positive expectations for China's policies, while the short - position logic is mainly due to the current dull demand and the expectation of poor demand caused by tariff policies. Thailand and Cote d'Ivoire have increased their rubber exports [16]. - The rubber price is significantly affected by macro - funds in the short term, and its direction is unclear. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on NR main contract and shorting RU2609 for band - trading [16]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices prone to decline in the first half of the year. In 2018, 2019, and 2020, the decline occurred earlier. In 2023, the rubber price was lower than the industry's expectations and was below the rubber farmers' cost for a long time [26]. - The overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while the demand in China is stable. The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020 [32][35]. - The comparison between rubber and other commodities, such as copper, Brent crude oil, rebar, iron ore, the Shanghai Composite Index, and the ChiNext Index, shows no special values or points of concern [43][47][51]. 3.3 Profits and Ratios - The comparison between rubber and other commodities, such as copper, Brent crude oil, rebar, iron ore, the Shanghai Composite Index, and the ChiNext Index, shows no special values or points of concern [43][47][51]. 3.4 Cost Side - The cost of cup rubber in Thailand is generally considered to be between 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan full - latex in China is generally considered to be 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan full - latex is generally considered to be between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [56]. - The maintenance cost of rubber is a dynamic concept. When the rubber price is high, rubber farmers are more motivated to maintain, resulting in higher costs; when the price is low, they maintain less, and the cost decreases. In the first half of 2024, rubber farmers were highly motivated [56]. 3.5 Demand Side - The operating rates of full - steel and semi - steel tire factories show no special values or points of concern [62]. - The business climate of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and it is expected to gradually recover in the later stage, which will affect the supporting tires. The sales volume of commercial vehicles corresponds to the domestic supporting demand [66]. - The export of truck tires is booming, but it is expected to decline slightly in the later stage, corresponding to the monthly export value of new pneumatic rubber tires for passenger cars or freight motor vehicles [69]. 3.6 Supply Side - The rubber import data is mainly updated until December 2021, and the import data after the 2020 pandemic is no longer updated, reducing the analyzability of imports [74]. - The supply of rubber in major producing countries is generally normal, with no special values or points of concern [78][82][86][90][94][98][102][106][110]. - In January 2026, the rubber production was 1,115,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.67% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%. The cumulative production was 1,116,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.67%. The export was 834,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.11% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.07%. The cumulative export was 834,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.11%. The consumption was 931,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.74% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.57%. The cumulative consumption was 932,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.74% [114][115].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US President's attempt to suppress Brent crude oil below $110 through social media is losing effectiveness, and oil prices may get out of control [4]. - The control of the Strait of Hormuz is crucial in the "ultimate battle" in the Middle East. If Iran retains control, the US may be seen as losing; if the US secures passage, it will strengthen its global leadership. Any threat to the strait's passage can impact the global energy supply, financial markets, trade system, and geopolitical landscape [7]. - Middle - East peace talks are likely to fail, and the battle for the Strait of Hormuz is likely to escalate. Short - term market rebounds may occur, and investors can reduce positions during rebounds. The neckline positions of the previous platforms of the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indices are strong resistance levels [18]. - China has ended deflation and entered an inflationary phase, with increases in core CPI, PPI, and PPIRM [20][22][24]. - US two - year and ten - year Treasury bonds are facing selling pressure, and gold has fallen unexpectedly, indicating a spread of liquidity risk [44][48][50]. - US stocks are the biggest risk source, and the deterioration of the Middle - East situation will accelerate institutional distribution [52]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Geopolitics - The US President's measure to suppress oil prices is losing effect, and the price of crude oil may be out of control [4]. - The control of the Strait of Hormuz is a key factor in the Middle - East situation. Any threat to its passage can have far - reaching impacts [7]. - Iran claims sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, separates its passage rights from cease - fire negotiations, and plans to levy tolls on passing ships [8]. - The conflict between the US and Iran may continue until June with a 40% probability. If so, oil prices may exceed $200, and US gasoline may reach $7 per gallon. The release of strategic oil reserves by the IEA may not be sufficient to fill the supply gap caused by the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz [18]. Stock Market and Index - High inflation expectations are negative for growth - style indices. The CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indices have broken through their platform levels, and the Shanghai Composite Index has 4000 points as a strong resistance area after breaking through it [12][15]. - The two - margin balance remains stable, and the number of new A - share accounts opened in February was 2.52 million [27]. - For stock index trading, investors can open short positions in stock index futures at the neckline positions of the previous platforms of the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indices, and buy out - of - the - money put options on the CSI 1000 index at high rebound levels [18][19]. - High inflation is negative for growth - style indices. Investors can conduct long - short arbitrage by buying the CSI 300 index and selling the CSI 1000 or CSI 500 index [58][61]. Macroeconomic Indicators - In February, China's core CPI increased by 1.8% year - on - year and 0.7% month - on - month, ending deflation and entering inflation [20]. - In February, China's PPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the PPIRM increased by 0.7% month - on - month, indicating an upward trend in prices [22][24]. - China's exports in January and February were $356.7 billion and $299.8 billion respectively, with a year - on - year growth rate of 39.6% in February, which is related to seasonal factors and the enhanced competitiveness of Chinese electromechanical products [30]. - From January to February, manufacturing fixed - asset investment was 2.02 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.1%, and infrastructure investment was 1.85 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 9.7%. Real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year, but the decline has significantly narrowed [33][36][39]. - From January to February, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8% year - on - year, with a 2.5% increase in commodity sales, indicating a recovery in consumption [42]. Bond and Gold Markets - US two - year Treasury bonds are continuously falling, and the yield has reached 3.96%, higher than the federal funds rate, indicating a serious liquidity shortage. The ten - year Treasury bond yield has reached 4.42%, exceeding the critical point, with heavy selling pressure [44][46][48]. - Gold has fallen unexpectedly, indicating that institutions are selling gold to obtain liquidity, and the liquidity risk is spreading [50].