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菲莫国际和英美烟草发布25H1业绩,预计HNB业务全年均双位数增长
Soochow Securities· 2025-08-04 03:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [1]. Core Insights - Philip Morris International (PMI) reported Q2 2025 revenue of $10.1 billion, with an organic year-over-year growth of 6.8%. For the first half of 2025, revenue reached $19.4 billion, up 6.5% year-over-year. The revenue from smoke-free products was $4.2 billion, reflecting a 14.5% organic growth and accounting for 41% of total revenue [4][9]. - The Heat-Not-Burn (HNB) segment continues to grow, with Q2 HNB sales reaching 38.8 billion units, a year-over-year increase of 9.2%. Excluding channel inventory effects, the growth rate was 11.4%. As of Q2 2025, the number of HNB users reached 34 million, with Japan's HNB penetration rate increasing to 48% [4][10]. - British American Tobacco (BAT) reported H1 2025 revenue of £12.569 billion, a 1.8% increase year-over-year at constant exchange rates. The revenue from new tobacco products was £1.651 billion, up 2.4%, representing 18.2% of total revenue [4][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The global tobacco industry is approaching a market size of nearly $1 trillion, with new tobacco products growing at a faster pace and expected to capture more market share. Major players like PMI and BAT are increasing their focus on smoke-free products, particularly HNB [4][12]. Company Performance - PMI's Q2 2025 performance highlights include a 14.5% increase in smoke-free product revenue and a 100% increase in electronic vapor product sales. The company maintains a full-year sales growth forecast of 10-12% for HNB products [4][9]. - BAT's H1 2025 results show a mixed performance in new tobacco products, with HNB revenue growing modestly while electronic vapor products faced challenges due to regulatory issues [4][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring companies linked to new tobacco products, such as Smoore International, a leading OEM for BAT's HNB products, and Yingqu Technology, the manufacturer for PMI's IQOS [4][12].