Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Nobon Co., Ltd. is positioned as a leading differentiated supplier of water-jet non-woven fabrics, with a comprehensive growth strategy across materials, products, and branding, leading to a "buy" rating [1][5]. - Nobon has been focusing on the water-jet non-woven fabric sector since its establishment in 2002, holding over a hundred domestic and international patents, and offering a wide range of products across various fields including beauty materials, household cleaning, industrial materials, and medical materials [2][3]. - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 2.24 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 15.3% from 2019 to 2024, indicating steady revenue growth [2]. Group 2 - The non-woven fabric industry in China is expected to see a supply-demand rebalancing in 2024, driven by capacity reduction and increased consumer hygiene awareness, which will lead to a recovery in profitability [3]. - The production of water-jet non-woven fabrics in China increased from 640,000 tons in 2015 to 1.51 million tons in 2023, with its share of the total non-woven fabric market rising from 13.2% to 18.5% during the same period [3]. - Nobon is leveraging its advanced production processes and R&D capabilities to maintain its leading position in the market, benefiting from strong demand in emerging consumer segments such as cotton soft towels and oral tobacco [3]. Group 3 - Nobon is focusing on three key areas for growth: 1) Roll materials, where technological upgrades are enhancing competitiveness and market share [4]. 2) Finished products, with a strong production capacity and quality control, particularly through its subsidiary, Hangzhou Guoguang [4]. 3) Own brand development, with the launch of the "Xiaozhijia" brand aimed at creating a second growth curve [4]. - The company expects net profits of 130 million yuan, 160 million yuan, and 190 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28X, 23X, and 20X [5].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **vaping industry in the United States** and its regulatory environment, particularly focusing on the impact of flavor bans and compliance issues on market dynamics [1][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - Following the ban on fruit-flavored vaping products in the U.S., the market experienced a temporary decline, but disposable e-cigarettes have since dominated the market due to regulatory loopholes, capturing **80% of the market share** [1][4]. - The **illegal vaping market** grew from **$12.9 billion** in 2021 to **$21 billion** in 2024, marking a **63% increase**, while the compliant market shrank by **14%** to **$5.87 billion** [1][4][5]. - The U.S. government has been criticized for insufficient regulation of disposable e-cigarettes, which has led to a significant squeeze on compliant brands like British American Tobacco and G O, with Views experiencing a **5% decline** in 2024 [1][5]. - Starting in 2024, U.S. Customs has tightened regulations on e-cigarette imports, increasing costs and limiting the influx of illegal products, which is expected to improve the operating environment for compliant products [1][6]. - The FDA approved four menthol-flavored e-cigarettes in June 2024 and 20 ZYN nicotine pouches in January 2025, indicating a potential easing of restrictions on certain flavors, which could benefit compliant product sales [1][9]. Additional Important Content - China's exports of e-cigarettes to the U.S. totaled **$812 million** in May 2025, reflecting a **7.38%** month-over-month decline and a **19.52%** year-over-year decline [1][7]. - The European market has begun tightening regulations on disposable e-cigarettes and certain flavors since 2024, which primarily affects domestic white-label companies while benefiting international brands [1][10]. - The global new tobacco industry is transitioning into a healthier development phase after experiencing regulatory restrictions, with heated tobacco and nicotine pouch products expected to see significant growth in the coming years [2][12]. - The domestic market in China has stabilized since the implementation of the e-cigarette law in 2022, allowing only traditional flavor sales, with a focus on heated tobacco and nicotine products as key growth areas [2][13].

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·商贸零售 商贸零售行业跟踪周报 菲莫国际和英美烟草发布 25H1 业绩，预计 HNB 业务全年均双位数增长 增持（维持） 2025 年 08 月 04 日 证券分析师 吴劲草 执业证书：S0600520090006 wujc@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石旖瑄 执业证书：S0600522040001 shiyx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张家璇 执业证书：S0600520120002 zhangjx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 阳靖 执业证书：S0600523020005 [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] yangjing@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 郗越 执业证书：S0600524080008 xiy@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王琳婧 执业证书：S0600525070003 wanglj@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -6% 1% 8% 15% 22% 29% 36% 43% 50% 57% 2024/8/5 2024/12/3 2025/4/2 2025/7/31 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究 《 ...

菲莫国际：HNB 稳健增长，口含烟延续高增 [Table_Industry] 轻工制造 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 04 月 24 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业事项点评 | [Table_StockAndRank] 轻工制造 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 菲莫国际：HNB 稳健增长，口含烟延续高增 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 04 月 24 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [事件： Table_Summary 公司发布 ummary] ]2025 年一季报。2025Q1 收入为 93.01 亿美元（同比+5.8%， 经调整后同比+10.2%），其中新型烟草收入为 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on Oral Tobacco Market Industry Overview - The oral tobacco market, particularly nicotine pouch products, is experiencing rapid expansion, with the U.S. market growing 300 times from 2016 to 2021 and seven times from 2019 to mid-2022, indicating high industry vitality. The global market size is expected to reach $20-30 billion by 2030 [1][4] Key Insights and Arguments - The production threshold for oral tobacco is relatively low, but high-quality product development requires significant R&D investment. Philip Morris International (PMI) plans to invest $1.5 billion in R&D by 2025, focusing on raw material processing, formula design, nicotine release technology, and flavor optimization [1][5] - The oral tobacco industry participants are mainly pharmaceutical companies and e-cigarette firms. Pharmaceutical companies like Jingcheng Rundu and Henuo have advantages in release technology and nicotine supply, while e-cigarette companies rely on overseas channels for market coverage [1][6] - The cost structure of oral tobacco products includes low costs for cellulose, nicotine, and flavoring agents, totaling approximately 0.5-0.9 RMB per box, while packaging and labeling costs are higher, around 1 RMB per box. The technology content of non-woven fabric affects taste and nicotine release [1][8] Market Pricing and Cost Distribution - The retail price of oral tobacco products ranges from $5 to $10, with brand manufacturers' ex-factory prices around $2-3 and contract manufacturers' prices between $0.7 and $1. The material cost is approximately $0.2-0.3 [1][8] Regulatory Environment - Global regulations on oral tobacco vary. In the U.S., the FDA regulates it, requiring PMTA certification; European countries have different policies, with some regulated as food and others as tobacco. China currently has a relatively lenient regulatory environment, making it easy to purchase through e-commerce platforms [3][9] Market Share and Competitive Landscape - Large traditional tobacco companies dominate the global vaping and oral tobacco market, holding an 80% market share, with PMI accounting for 50% and British American Tobacco for 20%. The concentration in the oral tobacco market is higher than in the vaping market, with large companies having advantages in scale and R&D [3][10] Growth Trends and Future Outlook - The oral tobacco market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30% in the coming years, with recent growth rates around 50%. Despite the current small market size, it shows significant potential compared to the $1 trillion traditional tobacco market [4][12] - PMI is the only nicotine pouch supplier in the U.S. that has passed FDA review, with total sales of 1 billion cans in 2024, of which nicotine pouches account for about 60%, achieving a 50% year-on-year growth [13] Domestic Market Developments - Domestic companies like Jingcheng Rundu are beginning to ramp up production, with expectations to reach 1-10 million boxes in the latter half of 2025. The rapid growth in overseas demand is increasing orders for domestic contract manufacturers [14][15] Conclusion - The oral tobacco market is characterized by high growth potential, significant R&D investment requirements, and a competitive landscape dominated by large traditional tobacco companies. The regulatory environment varies globally, impacting market dynamics. The focus should be on how domestic manufacturers can penetrate the overseas market and the overall supply capacity to meet rising demand [16]