大消费景气展望：基数与大促后增速放缓，期待明年政策 发力 20251221 摘要 2025 年 11 月份的消费数据延续了今年下半年以来的回落趋势，社会消费品零 售总额增速回落至 1.3%，创下年内新低。主要原因有三点：第一，双十一促 销政策提前推高了 10 月份部分商品的消费，对 11 月份造成了一定透支；第二， 以旧换新的退坡影响显著，家电类和汽车类增速分别跌至接近-20%和-9%左右； 第三，居民内生动力偏弱，房价二次下跌导致金融和居民消费贷款整体偏弱。 以旧换新政策对未来消费有什么影响？ 以旧换新政策的退坡可能会对明年上半年的消费产生拖累效应。补贴资金规模 预计维持在 3,000 亿左右，但补贴范围可能扩展到更多人工智能相关的新消费 品。然而，这可能导致现有补贴商品的资金支持力度降低。此外，以旧换新相 关商品已经促销一年多时间，其透支效应逐渐显现。预计明年上半年耐用品 （如家电、汽车等）的增速将持续低迷，对整体居民消费构成一定拖累。 服务消费与商品消费之间有什么差异？ 服务消费相比于商品消费表现出更强的内生动力。今年服务零售增速从年初的 4.9%提升至目前累计 5.4%，单月增速已突破 5.5%-6% ...

Core Viewpoint - The State Council has issued an opinion aimed at combating illegal activities related to tobacco, including counterfeiting, smuggling, and sales, to purify the tobacco market and protect national interests and consumer rights [1][2]. Group 1: Measures Against Illegal Tobacco Activities - The opinion emphasizes the need to strengthen international cooperation to combat the smuggling of counterfeit Chinese tobacco brands and illegal tobacco entering China [1]. - It calls for enhanced law enforcement collaboration at sea and land to effectively target tobacco smuggling activities [1]. - The opinion mandates comprehensive management of tobacco issues at land borders and ports, strictly prohibiting various forms of tobacco smuggling [1]. Group 2: Domestic Enforcement and Regulation - The opinion requires a crackdown on domestic illegal tobacco activities, including the disruption of the supply chain for counterfeit tobacco materials and machinery [2]. - It highlights the need for strict regulation of e-cigarettes and illegal production, wholesale, transportation, and sales of tobacco products [2]. - The opinion stresses the importance of establishing a vertical management system for the tobacco industry and improving inter-departmental enforcement mechanisms [2]. Group 3: Responsibilities and Oversight - The opinion emphasizes that local governments and relevant departments must take the issue of combating illegal tobacco activities seriously and fulfill their regulatory responsibilities [2]. - It calls for a comprehensive approach to ensure that all tasks and measures related to combating illegal tobacco activities are effectively implemented [2].

Core Viewpoint - The State Council of China has issued a series of targeted policies to combat illegal activities related to tobacco, including counterfeiting, smuggling, and sales, aiming to purify the tobacco market and protect national interests and consumer rights [1][2]. Group 1: Measures Against Illegal Tobacco Activities - The policies emphasize the need to combat the smuggling of counterfeit tobacco products from abroad, enhancing law enforcement collaboration with other countries to address the issue [1]. - There will be a focus on breaking the supply chain of counterfeit tobacco materials and machinery, preventing the spread of counterfeit tobacco production [2]. - The regulations will also target illegal storage, transportation, and sales of tobacco products, including a crackdown on online sales of illegal tobacco [2]. Group 2: Strengthening Regulatory Framework - The policies call for the establishment of a vertical management system within the tobacco industry, improving inter-departmental enforcement mechanisms [2]. - There will be an emphasis on enhancing the professionalism and standardization of law enforcement teams to ensure effective regulation [2]. - Local authorities and relevant departments are urged to take responsibility for combating illegal tobacco activities, ensuring that all measures are effectively implemented [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the Chinese government's recent issuance of the "Opinions on Comprehensive Crackdown on Illegal Tobacco Activities," which outlines a series of targeted policy measures to address issues such as tobacco counterfeiting, smuggling, and illegal sales, aiming to purify the tobacco market environment and protect national interests and consumer rights [1][2]. Group 1: Measures Against Illegal Tobacco Activities - The government emphasizes the need to combat the overseas production and smuggling of counterfeit tobacco products, enhancing law enforcement collaboration with relevant countries to tackle illegal tobacco entering China [1]. - There is a focus on strengthening land and maritime law enforcement coordination to effectively target tobacco smuggling activities, including comprehensive management of border and port issues related to tobacco [1]. - The article highlights the importance of controlling risks associated with transportation tools and international mail to prevent tobacco smuggling through these channels [1]. Group 2: Domestic Crackdown on Tobacco Violations - The "Opinions" call for a rigorous crackdown on domestic illegal tobacco activities, including severing the supply chain for counterfeit tobacco materials and machinery [2]. - It stresses the need for strict enforcement against illegal storage, transportation, and sales of tobacco products, including online sales [2]. - The article mentions the regulation of electronic cigarettes and the prohibition of unauthorized production and sale of tobacco-related products, including nicotine pouches and similar items [2]. Group 3: Support and Enforcement Mechanisms - The government aims to enhance the vertical management system within the tobacco industry and improve inter-departmental law enforcement collaboration [2]. - There is a push for the professionalization and standardization of law enforcement teams to strengthen the crackdown on illegal tobacco activities [2]. - The article underscores the importance of local authorities and relevant departments taking responsibility for enforcing these measures and ensuring effective implementation [2].

Core Viewpoint - The State Council has issued an opinion aimed at combating illegal activities related to tobacco, including counterfeiting, smuggling, and sales, to purify the tobacco market and protect national interests and consumer rights [1][2]. Group 1: Measures Against Illegal Tobacco Activities - The opinion emphasizes the need to combat overseas counterfeiting and smuggling of tobacco products, enhancing law enforcement collaboration with relevant countries to address counterfeit Chinese tobacco brands [1]. - It calls for strict measures against various forms of tobacco smuggling, including maritime and land-based operations, and emphasizes the need for comprehensive management of tobacco-related issues at borders and ports [1]. - The opinion also highlights the importance of controlling risks associated with transportation tools and international mail to prevent smuggling activities [1]. Group 2: Domestic Enforcement and Regulation - The opinion mandates a crackdown on domestic illegal tobacco activities, including the disruption of supply chains for counterfeit tobacco materials and machinery [2]. - It stresses the need for strict regulation of e-cigarettes and illegal tobacco products, including those resembling traditional tobacco products, and calls for the prohibition of unauthorized production and sales of tobacco-related items [2]. - The opinion outlines the necessity of strengthening the tobacco industry's vertical management system and enhancing the connection between administrative enforcement and criminal justice [2]. Group 3: Responsibilities and Coordination - The opinion emphasizes the importance of local authorities and relevant departments taking responsibility for combating illegal tobacco activities, ensuring that all measures are effectively implemented [2]. - It calls for a comprehensive approach to ensure that all tasks related to combating illegal tobacco activities are well-coordinated and executed [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the State Council's recent issuance of the "Opinions on Comprehensive Crackdown on Illegal Tobacco Activities," which outlines targeted policy measures to address issues such as tobacco counterfeiting, smuggling, and illegal sales, aiming to purify the tobacco market environment and protect national interests and consumer rights [1][2]. Group 1: Measures Against Illegal Tobacco Activities - The Opinions emphasize the need to combat overseas counterfeit tobacco and smuggling, enhancing law enforcement collaboration with relevant countries to tackle counterfeit Chinese tobacco brands and illegal tobacco entering China [1]. - It calls for strengthened enforcement against various forms of tobacco smuggling, including maritime and land border operations, and comprehensive management of tobacco-related issues at special zones [1]. - The document highlights the importance of risk control in international transport and postal services to prevent tobacco smuggling through these channels [1]. Group 2: Domestic Crackdown on Tobacco Violations - The Opinions mandate a rigorous crackdown on domestic illegal tobacco activities, including the disruption of supply chains for counterfeit tobacco materials and machinery [2]. - It specifies the need for strict regulation of illegal storage, transportation, and online sales of tobacco products, as well as enhanced oversight of electronic cigarettes and similar products [2]. - The document also prohibits the unauthorized production and sale of tobacco-related products, emphasizing the need to combat illegal manufacturing and sales of products resembling tobacco [2]. Group 3: Support and Enforcement Mechanisms - The Opinions propose strengthening the vertical management system within the tobacco industry and improving inter-departmental enforcement collaboration [2]. - It stresses the importance of professional law enforcement capacity building and the need for strict, standardized, and fair enforcement practices [2]. - The document calls for local authorities and relevant departments to take responsibility for combating illegal tobacco activities, ensuring that all measures are effectively implemented [2].

Core Viewpoint - The State Council has issued an opinion aimed at combating illegal activities related to tobacco, including counterfeiting, smuggling, and other violations, to purify the tobacco market and protect national interests and consumer rights [1][2]. Group 1: Measures Against Illegal Tobacco Activities - The opinion emphasizes the need to strengthen international cooperation to combat the smuggling of counterfeit Chinese tobacco brands and illegal tobacco entering China [1]. - It calls for enhanced enforcement against various forms of tobacco smuggling, including maritime and land border activities, and the regulation of special areas to prevent intellectual property infringement [1]. - There is a focus on controlling risks associated with transportation tools and international mail to prevent tobacco smuggling through these channels [1]. Group 2: Domestic Enforcement and Regulation - The opinion mandates a crackdown on domestic illegal tobacco activities, including the disruption of supply chains for counterfeit tobacco materials and machinery [2]. - It highlights the need for strict regulation of e-cigarettes and illegal tobacco products, including those resembling traditional tobacco products [2]. - The document calls for the establishment of a vertical management system within the tobacco industry and improved coordination between administrative and criminal law enforcement [2]. Group 3: Responsibilities and Implementation - The opinion stresses the importance of local authorities and relevant departments to take responsibility for combating illegal tobacco activities and ensuring effective implementation of measures [2]. - It advocates for the professionalization of enforcement teams and the establishment of a robust supervisory framework to ensure fair and just law enforcement [2].

Core Viewpoint - The State Council has issued an opinion aimed at combating illegal activities related to tobacco, including counterfeiting, smuggling, and sales, to purify the tobacco market and protect national interests and consumer rights [1][2]. Group 1: Measures Against Illegal Tobacco Activities - The opinion emphasizes the need to combat the overseas production and smuggling of counterfeit tobacco products, enhancing cooperation with relevant countries to crack down on counterfeit Chinese tobacco brands [1]. - It calls for strict enforcement against various forms of tobacco smuggling, including maritime and land border operations, and the regulation of special areas to prevent intellectual property infringement [1]. - The opinion also highlights the importance of managing risks associated with transportation tools and international mail to prevent tobacco smuggling [1]. Group 2: Domestic Enforcement and Regulation - The opinion mandates a crackdown on domestic illegal tobacco activities, including the disruption of supply chains for counterfeit tobacco materials and machinery [2]. - It outlines measures to address illegal storage, transportation, and sales of tobacco products, including online sales, and emphasizes the regulation of electronic cigarettes [2]. - The opinion stresses the need for a robust tobacco industry management system, enhancing the connection between administrative enforcement and criminal justice [2]. Group 3: Responsibilities and Coordination - The opinion calls for local authorities and relevant departments to prioritize the fight against illegal tobacco activities, ensuring that all tasks and measures are effectively implemented [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the State Council's recent issuance of the "Opinions on Comprehensive Crackdown on Illegal Tobacco Activities," which outlines targeted policy measures to address issues such as tobacco counterfeiting, smuggling, and illegal sales, aiming to purify the tobacco market environment and protect national interests and consumer rights [1][2]. Group 1: Measures Against Illegal Tobacco Activities - The Opinions emphasize the need to combat the overseas production and smuggling of counterfeit tobacco products, enhancing law enforcement collaboration with relevant countries to tackle the illegal flow of tobacco into China [1]. - It calls for a comprehensive crackdown on domestic illegal tobacco activities, including severing the supply chain for counterfeit tobacco materials and machinery, and strictly regulating the storage, transportation, and sale of illegal tobacco products [2]. - The document highlights the importance of strengthening electronic cigarette regulation and prohibits the unauthorized production and sale of tobacco-related products, including nicotine pouches and other similar items [2]. Group 2: Support and Enforcement Mechanisms - The Opinions propose enhancing the vertical management system of the tobacco industry and improving inter-departmental law enforcement mechanisms to ensure effective collaboration between administrative and criminal justice systems [2]. - It stresses the need for professional law enforcement capacity building and the establishment of a standardized and professional enforcement team to ensure rigorous and fair law enforcement practices [2]. - The article underscores the responsibility of local authorities and relevant departments to prioritize the crackdown on illegal tobacco activities, ensuring that all measures are effectively implemented and interconnected [2].

Core Viewpoint - The State Council of China has issued an opinion aimed at comprehensively combating illegal activities related to tobacco, including counterfeiting, smuggling, and other violations, to purify the tobacco market environment and protect national interests and consumer rights [2]. Group 1: Measures Against Illegal Tobacco Activities - The opinion emphasizes the need to sever the supply chain for counterfeit tobacco raw materials and machinery, establishing a comprehensive regulatory system for tobacco production and operation [7]. - It calls for enhanced supervision of tobacco seed sales and management of tobacco genetic resources, as well as stricter regulations on the planting, purchasing, selling, and import/export of tobacco leaves [7]. - There will be increased efforts to combat illegal activities involving cigarette paper, filter rods, and tobacco machinery, effectively blocking the flow of tobacco leaves and materials into counterfeit production sites [7]. Group 2: International Cooperation and Border Control - The opinion highlights the importance of international cooperation to combat the source of counterfeit tobacco production abroad, including intelligence sharing and joint law enforcement efforts [3]. - It stresses the need for stringent measures against maritime tobacco smuggling, including regular patrols along coastlines and monitoring of key shipping routes [4]. - The document also outlines the necessity of comprehensive management of land borders and ports to prevent the smuggling of tobacco products, including strict enforcement of regulations on the import of tobacco products by travelers [4]. Group 3: Domestic Enforcement and Regulation - The opinion outlines a multi-faceted approach to tackling domestic illegal tobacco activities, including stringent checks on storage, transportation, and distribution of tobacco products [9]. - It emphasizes the need for rigorous enforcement against illegal online sales of tobacco products, enhancing monitoring and collaboration among various regulatory bodies [11]. - The document also calls for a crackdown on illegal electronic cigarette activities, ensuring compliance with industry regulations and standards [12]. Group 4: Support and Capacity Building - The opinion advocates for the improvement of legal frameworks and standards within the tobacco industry, enhancing the connection between administrative enforcement and criminal justice [11]. - It highlights the need for strengthening technical support and equipment for law enforcement agencies to effectively combat illegal tobacco activities [11]. - The document stresses the importance of professional training for enforcement personnel to enhance their capabilities in data analysis and evidence collection [12].