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内存芯片价格飙涨400%! 法巴:巨头停产旧型号 美光、Sandisk直接受益全球抢货潮
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-11 03:12
Core Viewpoint - The memory industry is entering a historic upcycle driven by artificial intelligence (AI), with companies like Micron Technology (MU.US) and Sandisk (SNDK.US) expected to benefit significantly from this trend [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - DRAM and NAND spot prices have seen significant year-on-year increases of 408% and 165% respectively in November, indicating a strong upward trend in pricing [1]. - The average selling price of DRAM is projected to rise by 35% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 and by 10% in Q1 2026, driven by ongoing supply constraints [1]. - NAND prices are also expected to increase by 15% in Q4 and by 7% in the following quarter, reflecting similar supply dynamics [1]. Group 2: Historical Context - Historically, DRAM upcycles last about 8 months with an average price increase of 53%, while NAND upcycles last around 6 months with a 40% average price increase [2]. - Currently, the DRAM upcycle is in its 5th month with prices up 55% from the trough, and the NAND upcycle is in its 4th month with prices up 51% from the trough [2]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Major players like Samsung and SK Hynix, which control approximately 70% of the global DRAM market, are shifting focus towards high-end chips, planning to phase out DDR4 production by late 2025 to early 2026 [3]. - Tech giants such as Google, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft are expected to invest $400 billion in AI infrastructure this year, further driving demand for memory chips [3]. Group 4: Supply Dynamics - The memory chip industry is experiencing a "super cycle," with manufacturers aggressively stockpiling chips due to surging demand [4]. - Semiconductor distributors report a significant increase in demand over the past couple of months, with customers adopting strategies of ordering double or triple the usual quantities [4].