智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利在强调北美IT硬件行业2026年前景时，上调了包括苹果(AAPL.US)在内 的多家公司的目标价。该行指出，高估值、宏观经济波动以及内存芯片成本上涨，或将导致2026年硬件 板块的超额收益范围收窄。 具体来看，大摩将其对苹果的目标价由305美元上调至315美元，希捷科技目标价由270美元上调至337美 元，西部数据目标价由188美元上调至228美元，Teradata目标价由30美元上调至35美元。部分个股目标 价遭下调，CDW(CDW.US)目标价由191美元下调至177美元，TD Synnex目标价由181美元下调至177美 元，罗技(LOGI.US)目标价由108美元下调至107美元，英迈科技(INGM.US)目标价由23美元下调至21美 元。 以埃里克·伍德林(Erik Woodring)为首的大摩分析师团队表示，2025年硬件股呈现"上下半场分化"的格 局：上半年因关税政策遭遇抛售，下半年则在AI应用热潮与传统硬件稳健增长的推动下反弹——截至 目前，硬件板块估值较4月低点反弹近6倍创历史新高，板块未来12个月净利润增长17%。 不过，分析师认为，2026年仍存结构性机会， ...

Core Viewpoint - The memory industry is entering a historic upcycle driven by artificial intelligence (AI), with companies like Micron Technology (MU.US) and Sandisk (SNDK.US) expected to benefit significantly from this trend [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - DRAM and NAND spot prices have seen significant year-on-year increases of 408% and 165% respectively in November, indicating a strong upward trend in pricing [1]. - The average selling price of DRAM is projected to rise by 35% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 and by 10% in Q1 2026, driven by ongoing supply constraints [1]. - NAND prices are also expected to increase by 15% in Q4 and by 7% in the following quarter, reflecting similar supply dynamics [1]. Group 2: Historical Context - Historically, DRAM upcycles last about 8 months with an average price increase of 53%, while NAND upcycles last around 6 months with a 40% average price increase [2]. - Currently, the DRAM upcycle is in its 5th month with prices up 55% from the trough, and the NAND upcycle is in its 4th month with prices up 51% from the trough [2]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Major players like Samsung and SK Hynix, which control approximately 70% of the global DRAM market, are shifting focus towards high-end chips, planning to phase out DDR4 production by late 2025 to early 2026 [3]. - Tech giants such as Google, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft are expected to invest $400 billion in AI infrastructure this year, further driving demand for memory chips [3]. Group 4: Supply Dynamics - The memory chip industry is experiencing a "super cycle," with manufacturers aggressively stockpiling chips due to surging demand [4]. - Semiconductor distributors report a significant increase in demand over the past couple of months, with customers adopting strategies of ordering double or triple the usual quantities [4].

来自中国竞争对手的成熟芯片竞争日益激烈，也促使控制着全球约70%的DRAM芯片市场的三星和SK 海力士这两家公司加速向高端芯片转移。这些厂商自2025年初起便陆续调整战略，逐步减少乃至计划在 2025年底至2026年初完全停止DDR4内存颗粒的生产，将产能全面转向利润更高、技术更先进的 DDR5、HBM等产品。 摩根士丹利预计，包括谷歌、亚马逊、Meta、微软和CoreWeave在内的科技巨头，今年将在人工智能基 础设施上投入4000亿美元。而这场AI繁荣，又恰逢传统数据中心和个人电脑迎来新的更新换代周期。 分析师指出，加上手机销量超预期，这共同加剧了非HBM内存芯片的供应紧张，并推高了其价格。 阿克曼解释道："自1999年以来，DRAM的平均上升周期持续8个月，平均售价从低谷到高峰上涨53%， 而NAND的平均上升周期通常持续6个月，平均售价上涨40%。当前DRAM上升周期已进入第5个月，平 均售价较谷底上涨55%;NAND上升周期进入第4个月，平均售价较谷底上涨51%。然而，我们预计本轮 上升周期对DRAM和NAND都将更具持续性。我们观察到巨大的现货/合约价差：DDR4为45%，DDR5 为89%，25 ...

Core Viewpoint - The memory industry is entering a historic upcycle driven by artificial intelligence (AI), with companies like Micron Technology (MU.US) and Sandisk (SNDK.US) expected to benefit significantly from this trend [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Consumer-grade DRAM and NAND TLC spot prices increased by 408% and 165% year-over-year in November, indicating a strong upward trend in pricing [1]. - The average selling price (ASP) of DRAM is projected to rise by 35% quarter-over-quarter in Q4, with a further 10% increase expected in Q1 2026 [1]. - NAND prices are also expected to rise by 15% in Q4 and 7% in the following quarter, driven by ongoing supply constraints [1]. Group 2: Historical Context - Historically, DRAM upcycles last about 8 months with an average price increase of 53%, while NAND upcycles last around 6 months with a 40% average price increase [2]. - Currently, the DRAM upcycle is in its 5th month with prices up 55% from the trough, and the NAND upcycle is in its 4th month with prices up 51% [2]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Major players like Samsung and SK Hynix, which control approximately 70% of the global DRAM market, are shifting focus towards high-end chips, planning to cease DDR4 production by late 2025 to early 2026 [3]. - Tech giants such as Google, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft are expected to invest $400 billion in AI infrastructure this year, further intensifying demand for memory chips [3]. Group 4: Supply Dynamics - The memory chip industry is entering what analysts refer to as a "super cycle," with manufacturers aggressively stockpiling memory chips due to surging demand [4]. - Semiconductor distributors report a significant increase in demand over the past couple of months, with customers adopting double or triple ordering strategies reminiscent of previous shortages [4].

Core Insights - Several technology companies, including Dell and HP, have warned of potential memory chip shortages next year due to a surge in demand driven by AI infrastructure development [1][3] - Counterpoint Research predicts that memory module prices could rise by 50% by the second quarter of next year [1] - The shortage of memory chips may increase manufacturing costs across various products, from smartphones to medical devices and automobiles [1] Group 1: Company Responses - Dell's COO Jeff Clarke noted unprecedented cost fluctuations and indicated that all product costs are rising due to tightening supplies of DRAM and NAND flash memory [2][7] - HP's CEO Enrique Lores expressed a cautious outlook for the second half of 2026 and mentioned potential price increases while exploring options to mitigate memory usage [2] - Apple CFO Kevan Parekh acknowledged slight favorable trends in memory pricing but emphasized effective cost management [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The memory chip industry is entering a "super cycle," with manufacturers prioritizing high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI applications, leading to shortages of more common memory types [3][7] - Major tech companies are expected to invest $400 billion in AI infrastructure this year, exacerbating the supply constraints for non-HBM memory chips [6] - Prices for memory chips have surged significantly, with 4GB DDR4X chips rising from $7 to over $30, and 64G eMMC flash memory increasing from $3.2 to over $8 [6][7] Group 3: Supply Chain Implications - The global memory chip market is experiencing heightened demand, with manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix shifting focus to higher-margin products [6][9] - Semiconductor distributors report a surge in demand, with customers adopting aggressive ordering strategies reminiscent of previous shortages [7] - Memory shortages may limit production in the automotive and electronics sectors by 2026, as highlighted by SMIC [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant surge in the market value of South Korean chip manufacturers, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, driven by the growing demand for high bandwidth memory (HBM) chips essential for artificial intelligence applications, with a potential continuation of this trend [4][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - SK Hynix's stock price has soared due to its leading position in the HBM chip market, with analysts raising target prices for both SK Hynix and Samsung by approximately 30% this quarter [4]. - Morgan Stanley predicts a "super cycle" in the memory chip industry due to potential supply-demand imbalances in the coming year [4]. - Foreign investment is expected to increase in South Korean chip stocks, supported by major capital expenditure plans from tech companies in the U.S. [4][5]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - Despite a 24% increase in Samsung's stock price this month, its expected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio remains at 14, while SK Hynix's stock has risen by 33% with a P/E ratio of only 7 [5][6]. - In contrast, major U.S. chip manufacturers have a P/E ratio of around 26, indicating that South Korean companies are perceived as relatively undervalued [5]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment - Foreign investors are increasingly attracted to South Korean memory chip manufacturers, with monthly cash inflows expected to reach historical highs [6]. - Analysts believe that Samsung's foreign ownership ratio has room to increase, given the strong demand for AI and the recovery in traditional storage products [6]. - Following the AI boom, Samsung's stock is projected to achieve its best monthly performance since 2001, with expectations of increased business with Nvidia in the HBM sector [6][8].