证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 27 年 月 日 银龙股份（603969.SH） 业绩表现亮眼，两大核心主业增长逻辑持续兑现 分析师 沈猛 事件：银龙股份发布 2025 中报。银龙股份 2025H1 实现收入 14.73 亿 元，同比增长 8.85%，归母净利润 1.72 亿元，同比增长 70.98%。单 Q2 实现收入 8.88 亿元，同比增长 0.88%，归母净利润 1.02 亿元，同比增长 67.12%。中报及分季度业绩表现亮眼。 预应力材料系上半年公司收入主要增长引擎。分板块来看，上半年银龙股 份预应力材料收入 11.58 亿元，占总收入比重 78.58%，同比增长 8.12%， 整体销量同比增长 9.08%，销量提升为板块营收增长做出明显贡献，板块 中传统产品与增量新品同步发力。具体来讲，三大高附加值新品占比持续 提升（（道板板预预应力丝、超高高钢丝线、超梁镀锌钢丝、/丝线、），比 如道板板预预应力材料销量同比增长 68.86%；传统产品中 PCCP 管预丝 、销量同比增长 30.35%；新能源相关预应力材料销量同比增长 59.72%。 道交预混凝土制品收入 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" for the company [4]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated a strong growth trajectory in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase in revenue of 8.85% to 1.473 billion yuan and a significant rise in net profit of 70.98% to 172 million yuan [1][2]. - The business structure has been optimized, leading to improved profitability across its segments, particularly in high-margin products [2][9]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the pre-stressed steel materials and high-speed rail slab sectors, with a robust product matrix and a focus on high-value products [9]. Revenue and Profitability - In H1 2025, the pre-stressed materials segment generated revenue of 1.158 billion yuan, accounting for 78.58% of total revenue, while the concrete products segment contributed 213 million yuan, representing 14.45% [2]. - The gross margin for the company improved to 24.26%, up 8.14 percentage points year-on-year, driven by enhanced margins in both pre-stressed materials and concrete products [3]. - The net profit margin for the pre-stressed materials segment was 11.23%, while the concrete products segment achieved a remarkable net profit margin of 20.19% [3]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The operating cash flow showed significant improvement in Q2 2025, with a net inflow of 106 million yuan, compared to a net outflow of 77.5 million yuan in Q2 2024 [8]. - As of H1 2025, accounts receivable amounted to 2.245 billion yuan, with over 80% being due within one year, indicating a healthy cash collection cycle [8]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3.519 billion yuan, 4.022 billion yuan, and 4.545 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.2%, 14.3%, and 13.0% [11]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 357 million yuan, 472 million yuan, and 567 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 51.0%, 31.9%, and 20.3% [11]. - The report sets a 12-month target price of 12.14 yuan, based on a projected PE ratio of 22 times for 2026 [9].

Group 1 - The core project "Yaxi Project" has commenced, significantly impacting related concept stocks, with Yinlong Co., Ltd. experiencing a surge in stock price and market capitalization [1] - Yinlong Co., Ltd. anticipates increased demand for prestressed materials and concrete components due to the Yaxi Project, which is a national-level major project [1] - The company has established a professional team to closely follow the project's progress and actively seek participation opportunities, which could positively support its performance if it secures relevant orders [1] Group 2 - Yinlong Co., Ltd. expects a net profit of 161 million to 181 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 60% to 80% [2] - The significant profit increase is attributed to the optimization of the prestressed materials business and the rising proportion of high-value-added products [2] - Expansion in the renewable energy sector is also contributing to the company's profit support [2] Group 3 - The Yaxi Project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to stimulate infrastructure development in the western region and promote clean energy construction [3] - Various companies, including Dayu Water Saving and LiuGong, are actively seeking opportunities related to the Yaxi Project, highlighting its strategic importance [3][4] - Companies are forming project teams to engage with the Yaxi Project across multiple aspects, including equipment and solutions [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with an upgrade noted [10]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic prestressed materials industry, with stable and increasing downstream demand in sectors such as water conservancy, highway bridges, and high-speed rail construction. The company leverages advanced technology to continuously launch high-performance prestressed products, enhancing the lifespan of downstream products while reducing construction costs, leading to an upgrade in product structure [3][6]. - The overseas market presents significant growth potential, with expectations for the company to achieve greater breakthroughs [3]. Company Overview - The company focuses on prestressed materials and rail transit supporting materials, serving downstream sectors including railways, water conservancy, bridges, and civil applications. Established in 1978 and listed in 2015, the company has shown stable performance with projected revenue of 3.05 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting accelerated growth. The net profit from 2012 to 2023 has remained between 100 million to 200 million yuan, with a forecasted profit of 237 million yuan in 2024, marking a 38% year-on-year increase [6][28]. Prestressed Materials - The demand for prestressed materials remains robust, particularly in traditional infrastructure projects, with structural growth observed in water conservancy investments maintaining over 10% growth annually. The company is positioned to benefit from this demand, especially in providing prestressed steel wires to PCCP enterprises [6][34]. - The industry has undergone a supply-side clearance, with many small enterprises exiting due to inefficiencies, allowing the company to potentially increase its market share, which is currently about 4.6% with a projected sales volume of 250,000 tons in 2024 [7][44]. High-Strength Product Development - The market for high-quality prestressed products is expanding due to increasing safety and quality requirements in construction. New standards have been introduced, raising the strength requirements for materials used in bridges and high-speed rail, which the company is well-positioned to meet with its high-strength prestressed materials [8][52]. - The company has developed high-strength products that are being utilized in major bridge and high-speed rail projects, contributing significantly to its expected performance in 2024 [8][67]. Rail Transit Sector - The demand for rail transit materials is on the rise, with fixed asset investment in railways expected to reach 850.6 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%. The company anticipates a 31% increase in revenue from rail transit products in 2024, amounting to 400 million yuan [9][73]. - The III-type track slab is gaining traction, with market demand projected to reach 4 billion yuan by 2028, doubling from 2024 levels. The company is a key player in the development of this product [9][78]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 350 million yuan and 530 million yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 18 and 12 [10].

Group 1 - The report highlights the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, indicating that historically, stock and bond markets tend to move in opposite directions, although this negative correlation has weakened during periods of significant liquidity changes [3][4] - Current disturbances in the bond market are attributed to economic data fluctuations, accelerated special bond issuance, and evolving real estate policy expectations, suggesting that bond market rates may face certain pressures [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic data and policy developments to identify further opportunities for bond market investments [4] Group 2 - The overseas pension asset allocation strategies are categorized into asset management and asset-liability management types, with the latter focusing on ensuring long-term fund stability by considering payment pressures [5][7] - Notable pension funds such as GPIF, GPFG, and CPP utilize different strategies for asset allocation, with GPIF adopting a passive investment approach based on indices, while GPFG adjusts standard indices for active investment [5][6] - The report discusses the dynamic liability-driven investment (LDI) approach recommended by PGIM, which emphasizes flexibility in responding to market changes and aligning with retirees' spending preferences [7][8] Group 3 - The company Feirongda is projected to achieve a revenue of 2.886 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 33.06%, with net profit expected to increase by 103.95% to 123.69% [9][10] - The growth is driven by strong performance in the consumer electronics, communication, and new energy vehicle sectors, with significant contributions from key clients and market recovery [10][11] - The company has established a strong position in the liquid cooling solutions market for AI servers, with its 3D VC liquid cooling module recognized by leading AI server manufacturers [12][13] Group 4 - The report notes rising prices for potassium fertilizer, glyphosate, and organic silicon, indicating potential investment opportunities due to expected mid-year performance increases [15][23] - The chemical industry is experiencing a tightening supply of phosphorus ore, with demand expected to grow due to the increasing need for phosphate fertilizers and lithium iron phosphate batteries [17][19] - The report identifies key opportunities in the chemical sector, including low-cost expansion and improving market conditions for chromium salts and phosphorus ore [19][20]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of stock price appreciation exceeding 15% over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company is a global leader in prestressed materials, with significant revenue growth anticipated in its core businesses of prestressed materials and concrete products for rail transit. In 2024, the revenue from prestressed materials is projected to be 2.425 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.03%, with a net profit of 174 million yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 55.93% [2][3]. - The company is also focusing on expanding its market share in high-value products, driven by the robust development of national infrastructure projects, which is expected to enhance profitability further [2]. - The company is exploring new applications for fine wire products, particularly in the robotics tendon business, leveraging its existing technology in prestressed materials. This project is currently in the early research and technical preparation stage [3]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 3.054 billion yuan in 2024 to 4.886 billion yuan by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.46% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 237 million yuan in 2024 to 525 million yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of 19.09% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.28 yuan in 2024 to 0.61 yuan in 2027, indicating strong growth potential [4]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from ongoing infrastructure investments, with the China National Railway Group planning to complete 590 billion yuan in infrastructure investments and 2,600 kilometers of new lines in 2025 [2]. - The company aims to maintain stable supply for existing high-speed rail and metro projects while actively exploring new market opportunities in regions such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and various metro lines in Guangzhou and Shenzhen [2].

Group 1: Yinlong Co., Ltd. - Yinlong Co., Ltd. has a broad production base in the prestressed materials and concrete products for rail transit industry, adhering to market proximity and regional radiation principles [1] - The company is involved in multiple high-speed rail projects, such as the Xiong'an New Area to Shangqiu high-speed rail, ensuring production schedules align with project milestones [1] - The company is optimistic about future performance, with the PCCP industry expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate of 6%-7% until 2030 [1] Group 2: Kangxi Communication - Kangxi Communication's operating conditions are strong in the first half of 2025, with orders sufficient to cover until the fourth quarter of 2025 [2] - The company benefits from the increasing demand for Wi-Fi 7 products, with significant revenue growth driven by strong demand in industrial IoT products and high-efficiency drone products [2] - The 337 investigation is set to officially commence in July 2025, with an initial ruling expected by the end of the year [2] - The Wi-Fi 8 technology standard is anticipated to be established by the end of 2027, with product samples expected to be launched in 2026 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company held an earnings briefing for the fiscal year 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, highlighting significant profit growth despite lower revenue compared to 2021, driven by strategic market expansion and product innovation [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 237 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.94%, while revenue was 3.054 billion yuan, up 11.10% [1][6]. - The company’s cash flow showed a net outflow due to increased production and sales volumes, particularly for high-speed rail projects [1][5]. - The gross profit margin for prestressed materials was approximately 16.23%, while the margin for rail transit concrete products was 29.11% [2][3]. Group 2: Product and Market Development - The company has focused on optimizing product structure and enhancing technological capabilities, leading to increased market share in high-value products [3][4]. - Sales of intelligent production equipment grew by 148.87% year-on-year, indicating a strong demand for automation in concrete component production [4][5]. - The company has established a comprehensive supply chain for prestressed materials, with production bases strategically located to meet regional demands [6][7]. Group 3: International Expansion - Approximately 20%-30% of the company’s revenue comes from exports, with products supplied to over 90 countries, including major infrastructure projects in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [5][6]. - The company is actively pursuing opportunities in international projects, such as the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, leveraging its production base in Xinjiang [5][6]. Group 4: Future Growth Strategies - The company plans to continue focusing on core business areas, including prestressed materials and rail transit concrete products, while also exploring opportunities in the renewable energy sector [6][7]. - The company aims to enhance its competitive edge through technological innovation and strategic collaborations, positioning itself for sustainable growth in the evolving market landscape [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance in Q1 2025, with significant year-over-year growth in both revenue and net profit, indicating robust operational resilience and effective cost management [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 585 million yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 23.70%, marking the highest quarterly revenue growth since 2022 [1][2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 70 million yuan, reflecting a substantial year-over-year increase of 76.97%, driven by improved gross margins and effective control of operating expenses [1][2]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 23.82%, an increase of 1.92 percentage points year-over-year, attributed to an optimized business structure and a higher proportion of high-value products [3]. - The net profit margin improved significantly to 12.48%, up 4.06 percentage points year-over-year, benefiting from both gross margin enhancement and a notable reduction in the expense ratio, which decreased by 5.58 percentage points to 9.76% [3]. Growth Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading player in the prestressed steel and track slab sectors, with a comprehensive product matrix and strong technical and brand capabilities [4]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 3.651 billion yuan, 4.222 billion yuan, and 4.804 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 19.6%, 15.6%, and 13.8% respectively [4]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 331 million yuan, 433 million yuan, and 525 million yuan, with year-over-year growth rates of 39.8%, 30.8%, and 21.2% respectively [4].