Core Viewpoint - The luxury watch market in China, particularly for European brands like Rolex, is experiencing a significant decline, with prices dropping and consumer interest shifting towards domestic and smartwatches [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - The resale value of Rolex watches has decreased by nearly one-third from March 2022 to March 2025, reaching a four-year low [3]. - Other high-end brands such as Vacheron Constantin, Piaget, and Patek Philippe are also facing price pressures, indicating a broader market trend away from luxury watches as "hard currency" [3][4]. - The export value of Swiss watches to mainland China fell by 26% last year, while exports to Hong Kong dropped by 19%, highlighting a significant market contraction [7]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The middle-class consumer segment, which has been a major growth driver for luxury goods, is showing a rapid decline in spending on luxury watches, with 45% of middle-class consumers reporting decreased spending on luxury items [10][13]. - A survey indicated that 80% of consumers who are reducing their luxury purchases believe that luxury goods lack cost-effectiveness, leading to a shift in spending priorities [13]. - The traditional consumer base for luxury watches is evolving, with younger consumers from tech and healthcare sectors seeking more personalized and value-driven products [14]. Group 3: Domestic Brands and Smartwatches - Domestic brands like Seagull and Fiyta are gaining traction, with Fiyta's sales of a co-branded watch with the film "The King of the Sky" increasing by 63% [19]. - Smartwatches from brands like Huawei and Xiaomi are rapidly capturing market share, with Huawei leading the market with a 34.2% year-on-year growth in shipments [15]. - The shift towards smartwatches and domestic brands reflects a broader cultural change, as younger consumers prioritize functionality and value over traditional luxury branding [16][19]. Group 4: Industry Performance - Swatch Group, which owns brands like Omega and Longines, reported a 14.6% decline in net sales to 6.74 billion Swiss francs for 2024, with net profit plummeting over 70% to 220 million Swiss francs [5][7]. - The overall market for luxury goods in China is projected to be below 2022 levels, indicating a challenging environment for luxury brands [10].