本文来自微信公众号： 巨潮WAVE （ID：WAVE-BIZ） ，作者：侯恬，编辑：杨旭然，题图来自： AI生成 以下文章来源于巨潮WAVE ，作者侯恬 巨潮WAVE . 融入时代巨潮，发现商业决策。 "穷玩车，富玩表"的说法曾经在中国长期流传。并不夸张地说，自欧洲手表进入中国开始，它便成了 财富和身份的代名词。 一块欧洲名表的价格，能抵得上普通人多年的薪水，它不只是体面的象征，更是被当成了实打实 的"硬资产"。就像很多电影里演的，"大佬送礼"常选名表，遇上突发状况还可以把表拿去典当或转 手，立刻就能换得一笔救急的现金。 但近两年情况开始剧烈变化。过去"一表难求"的劳力士，如今在二手市场上价格一跌再跌。如从 2022年3月的高点到2025年3月，劳力士二手指数已下滑近三分之一，创下四年来新低。 此外，江诗丹顿、伯爵、百达翡丽等高端品牌的价格同样承压，名表等于"硬通货"的逻辑，正在被现 实打破。 国产手表则开始获得更多关注。海鸥、飞亚达的部分系列受到消费者的追捧，尤其是国家领导人佩戴 的飞亚达表，一度引起了资本市场的高度关注。 欧洲名表的另一竞争对手——智能手表也在加速崛起。华为、小米等品牌的产品不仅价格亲民， ...

Core Viewpoint - The luxury watch market in China, particularly for European brands like Rolex, is experiencing a significant decline, with prices dropping and consumer interest shifting towards domestic and smartwatches [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - The resale value of Rolex watches has decreased by nearly one-third from March 2022 to March 2025, reaching a four-year low [3]. - Other high-end brands such as Vacheron Constantin, Piaget, and Patek Philippe are also facing price pressures, indicating a broader market trend away from luxury watches as "hard currency" [3][4]. - The export value of Swiss watches to mainland China fell by 26% last year, while exports to Hong Kong dropped by 19%, highlighting a significant market contraction [7]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The middle-class consumer segment, which has been a major growth driver for luxury goods, is showing a rapid decline in spending on luxury watches, with 45% of middle-class consumers reporting decreased spending on luxury items [10][13]. - A survey indicated that 80% of consumers who are reducing their luxury purchases believe that luxury goods lack cost-effectiveness, leading to a shift in spending priorities [13]. - The traditional consumer base for luxury watches is evolving, with younger consumers from tech and healthcare sectors seeking more personalized and value-driven products [14]. Group 3: Domestic Brands and Smartwatches - Domestic brands like Seagull and Fiyta are gaining traction, with Fiyta's sales of a co-branded watch with the film "The King of the Sky" increasing by 63% [19]. - Smartwatches from brands like Huawei and Xiaomi are rapidly capturing market share, with Huawei leading the market with a 34.2% year-on-year growth in shipments [15]. - The shift towards smartwatches and domestic brands reflects a broader cultural change, as younger consumers prioritize functionality and value over traditional luxury branding [16][19]. Group 4: Industry Performance - Swatch Group, which owns brands like Omega and Longines, reported a 14.6% decline in net sales to 6.74 billion Swiss francs for 2024, with net profit plummeting over 70% to 220 million Swiss francs [5][7]. - The overall market for luxury goods in China is projected to be below 2022 levels, indicating a challenging environment for luxury brands [10].

Group 1 - The supply and demand imbalance for Rolex has made it difficult to purchase through official channels [2] - The secondary market is experiencing prices that exceed the original pricing by more than double [2] - There is a trend among young people to purchase luxury brands, including Rolex, before price increases [2]

Core Insights - The luxury goods market has traditionally relied on price increases to maintain brand prestige and consumer perception, leveraging the "Veblen effect" where higher prices signal higher quality and status [1][3] - However, recent trends indicate a shift in consumer behavior, with a reported average price increase of only 2% in luxury goods this year, the smallest in recent years, reflecting a more pragmatic approach from consumers [3][5] - Younger consumers are increasingly focused on the actual value of products rather than their price or brand, leading to a rise in discount platforms and sales events that offer luxury items at more accessible prices [5][7] Group 1 - Luxury brands have historically used price hikes to enhance their image and create a sense of exclusivity, making consumers feel that high-priced items signify success and status [3][5] - The recent HSBC report highlights a significant change in consumer attitudes, with a mere 2% average price increase in luxury goods, indicating a shift towards more practical purchasing decisions [3][5] - Consumers are now more informed and discerning, often researching product materials and craftsmanship, which diminishes the effectiveness of traditional pricing strategies [5][7] Group 2 - The emergence of discount platforms like Vipshop has gained popularity among consumers who still appreciate luxury brands but seek better value for their money [5][7] - Recent discount events featuring brands like Burberry and COACH have attracted not only regular luxury buyers but also new consumers who are eager to take advantage of lower prices [5][7] - Overall, the luxury market is adapting to a more diverse consumer base that values cost-effectiveness, leading to new sales models and a more varied shopping experience [7]

Core Insights - The initial Labubu was auctioned for 1.08 million, highlighting its perceived value similar to luxury brands like Rolex and Moutai, which are mass-produced industrial products that create scarcity through controlled supply [1] - The revenue for Pop Mart in 2024 is projected to be 13 billion, while Rolex's revenue is expected to be 85.7 billion, indicating a significant gap, yet Pop Mart shows a stronger premium in the secondary market [1] - Labubu and Moutai serve as status symbols for different demographics, with Labubu appealing to younger consumers and Moutai to middle-aged individuals, both having high resale value and market demand [2] Market Dynamics - Labubu can be gifted to superiors discreetly, maintaining a high value while being perceived as a simple plastic toy, which can be easily explained away if questioned [3] - The perception of aesthetics in luxury items can evolve over time, as individuals become more familiar with certain products, transforming initial judgments into appreciation [3][5] - Consensus around luxury items is shaped by a small group of influencers, which then permeates to the broader public, creating a shared understanding of value [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - Recent incidents of scams related to second-hand luxury goods, particularly watches, have emerged as a significant concern, highlighting the risks associated with online transactions and the potential for money laundering through these sales [1][18][19]. Group 1: Incident Overview - A man named Wang from Anhui sold a luxury watch for 380,000 yuan, only to find out that the payment was linked to a scam, resulting in his bank account being frozen [1]. - Similar cases have been reported, including one involving a man named Xiao from Zhejiang, who sold a Rolex for 375,000 yuan, also leading to his bank account being frozen due to the funds being linked to a fraud victim [2][12]. Group 2: Scam Mechanism - Scammers often pose as buyers on second-hand platforms, using various excuses to obtain sellers' bank account information, which they then use to transfer funds that are actually proceeds from other scams [19][21]. - The transactions typically involve high-value items that are easy to liquidate, making them attractive for scammers to exploit [18][19]. Group 3: Law Enforcement Response - Police have indicated that funds linked to scams must be frozen during investigations, which complicates the situation for innocent sellers who unknowingly receive these funds [12][18]. - Legal experts emphasize the importance of sellers documenting their transactions and communications to prove their innocence in case of account freezes [21].

Core Insights - The article discusses the phenomenon of consumption downgrade in China following the lifting of mask mandates, highlighting the economic struggles faced by individuals and businesses after a prolonged period of lockdown [1][5]. Economic Trends - National retail sales in March showed a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, reaching 4.09 trillion yuan, indicating an overall recovery trend [2]. - However, major cities like Beijing and Shanghai experienced significant declines in retail sales, with Beijing down 9.9% and Shanghai estimated to drop 14.1% [4]. Population Dynamics - The decline in population in major cities, particularly among migrant workers, is reshaping the consumption landscape, with a 1% decrease in migrant population leading to a loss of approximately 30 billion yuan in consumption power for Beijing and 45 billion yuan for Shanghai [5]. Consumer Behavior - High-end brands are witnessing a decline in demand, with Porsche reducing prices by 20% and Rolex's green gold model seeing a price drop of 50%, reflecting a broader trend of consumption downgrade among the middle class [6]. - The average salary growth in Beijing's financial sector is only 1.3%, and 3.5% in the internet sector, contrasting sharply with previous years of double-digit growth [7]. Shifts in Spending Habits - The "coffee downgrade" phenomenon is emerging, where premium coffee brands are being replaced by convenience store options, indicating a shift in spending strategies among workers [8]. - Consumer confidence in Beijing has plummeted to a ten-year low of 90.1, while the national index remains above 105 [9]. Market Data - Key commercial areas are experiencing a 40% drop in restaurant turnover rates, luxury stores are seeing a 60% decrease in foot traffic, and shared bike usage has shortened by 15 minutes [10]. - Real estate prices in Beijing and Shanghai have dropped by 8.3%, exacerbating wealth anxiety and affecting middle-class consumption capabilities [10]. Emerging Economic Opportunities - New economic forms are beginning to emerge amidst the consumption downturn, with instant retail in Beijing growing by 9.4% and smart home appliance sales increasing by 23.1% [12]. - Policies promoting the replacement of old consumer goods have led to a 35.1% increase in home appliance sales and a 28.6% surge in 5G mobile device sales, indicating a shift towards quality and efficiency in consumption [13]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that major cities need to focus on retaining talent and attracting people through opportunities and quality services to revitalize the consumption market [14].

Core Viewpoint - The State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) has launched a special enforcement action titled "Guarding Intellectual Property Rights" in 2024, focusing on combating trademark, patent, and geographical indication infringements that affect consumer rights and the business environment [1] Group 1: Enforcement Actions - SAMR has identified ten typical cases of intellectual property infringement, including trademark violations, counterfeiting of famous brands, and online sales of counterfeit goods [1] - A significant case involved Chengdu XGIMI Technology Co., Ltd. where the "XGIMI" trademark was infringed by Jiangxi Caiying Technology Co., Ltd., leading to a coordinated enforcement action across nine provinces, resulting in penalties exceeding 5 million yuan [2][3] - In another case, a live-streaming platform was used to sell counterfeit "Huawei" phones, leading to the dismantling of assembly sites and the arrest of 11 individuals, with the total sales amounting to 16.408 million yuan [4][5] Group 2: Case Details - The investigation into Jiangxi Caiying revealed that the company controlled ten others and sold infringing products through 25 online stores, resulting in a total penalty of 5.0721 million yuan [3] - In Shanghai, a joint operation uncovered 18 tons of counterfeit frozen poultry and over 1,500 fake packages, with a total involved amount of over 5.2 million yuan [6][7] - A counterfeit watch production site in Guangdong was discovered, producing over 3,470 fake Rolex watches, with the total value of the counterfeit goods reaching approximately 116.9465 million yuan [8][9]