证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 27 日 [Table_Title] 2025 年业绩超预期，海外业务将持续注入增长动能 [Table_Title2] 思源电气(002028.SZ) [Table_Summary] ►2025 年业绩超预期 公司发布 2025 年业绩快报，2025 年公司实现营收 212.1 亿元， 同比增长 37%；实现归母净利润 31.6 亿元，同比增长 54%；实 现扣非归母净利润 29.6 亿元，同比增长 58%。就 2025Q4 来看， 公司实现营收 73.8 亿元，同比增长 46%，环比增长 38%；实现 归母净利润 9.7 亿元，同比增长 74%，环比增长 8%；实现扣非 归母净利润 9.2 亿元，同比增长 95%，环比增长 15%。 ►在美国供应高压变电站设备，盈利水平有望持续提升 受美国电网扩容改造&AIDC 建设放量等需求驱动，美国高压设备 供 应 紧 张 ， 电力 变 压 器 PPI 指 数 持 续上 升 。 根据 Wood Mackenzie 报告，2025Q2 美国升压变压器、电力变压器交付周 期已分别达到 143 周、 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 21.21 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 37%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.16 billion yuan, up 54% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 2.96 billion yuan, reflecting a 58% increase [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing expansion and renovation of the U.S. power grid, with a tight supply-demand situation for high-voltage equipment. The delivery cycles for transformers in the U.S. have reached 143 weeks and 128 weeks for booster and power transformers, respectively [1] - Domestic investment in the power grid is increasing, with the State Grid Corporation expected to invest 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase from the previous plan. The company has shown strong bidding performance in domestic projects, indicating potential for significant growth in its domestic business [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upwards to 21.21 billion yuan and 26.83 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 35 billion yuan. The expected revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are 37.2%, 26.5%, and 30.5% [3] - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 3.16 billion yuan and 4.24 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 6.02 billion yuan. The expected net profit growth rates for 2025-2027 are 54.3%, 34.2%, and 41.8% [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 4.05 yuan for 2025, 5.43 yuan for 2026, and 7.71 yuan for 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 47X, 35X, and 25X based on the closing price of 189.26 yuan on January 27, 2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Siyuan Electric (002028), is optimistic about the long-term development of its energy storage business, highlighting strong market potential and positive demand expectations for its grid business due to the rapid construction of new energy systems [1][3]. Group 1: Business Operations - The company has established good partnerships with battery cell manufacturers, which are crucial for the quality of energy storage products [1]. - The energy storage market is experiencing rapid changes, with the company focusing on providing comprehensive solutions that integrate hardware and software to meet diverse customer needs [2]. - The company is actively investing in research and development to enhance product competitiveness in the energy storage sector [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a main revenue of 13.827 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.86%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.191 billion yuan, up 46.94% year-on-year [7]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a single-quarter main revenue of 5.33 billion yuan, reflecting a 25.68% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 899 million yuan, which is a 48.73% increase year-on-year [7]. - The company's gross profit margin stands at 32.32%, with a debt ratio of 45.94% [7]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The overall demand for overseas orders remains strong, indicating a positive outlook for international market expansion [5]. - The company identifies high-voltage substation equipment as its main product in the U.S. market, suggesting a targeted approach to international sales [6]. Group 4: Investment Sentiment - Recent ratings from 15 institutions show 14 buy ratings and 1 hold rating, with an average target price of 127.52 yuan over the past 90 days [8]. - The company has seen a net inflow of 186 million yuan in financing over the past three months, indicating positive investor sentiment [9].

Group 1: Company Performance Overview - The company achieved a revenue of approximately 5.33 billion CNY in Q3, totaling 13.827 billion CNY for the first three quarters, with confidence in meeting annual targets [2] - The overall gross margin remains stable, with minimal fluctuations expected throughout the year due to relatively stable material prices and fewer unexpected situations [2] Group 2: Market and Product Insights - The company has established good relationships with battery cell manufacturers, viewing the storage business as having significant long-term market potential [3] - The market for storage products is rapidly changing, with transparent costs for battery cells; the company is focused on enhancing product competitiveness through ongoing R&D investments [3] - The demand for grid business is expected to be positive due to the urgent need for new power system construction driven by rapid renewable energy development [4] Group 3: Sales and Expenses - The increase in sales expenses is attributed to upfront investments aimed at market expansion [5] - Overall overseas demand remains strong, with specific growth noted in various regions [6] Group 4: Product Applications and Innovations - High voltage substation equipment is identified as the main product in the U.S. market [7] - Supercapacitors are recognized for their broad application opportunities in automotive electronics, new power systems, and intelligent computing, effectively expanding the company's operational and business boundaries [8]