有色：估值与交易间的博弈 20251123 摘要 短期内，工业金属和贵金属价格可能盘整，股票缺乏价格上行动力。铜、 铝等工业金属以及黄金在未来两个月内难以看到强劲的价格上升动能， 建议等待更好的交易时机。 中期来看，铜和铝的供需格局预计明年偏向短缺，仍值得配置。关注 AI 相关板块及电网建设中的耗铜量问题，密切关注相关政策变化及技术进 展，以便及时调整投资策略。 宏观经济方面，失业率和非农数据超出预期，美联储降息态度摇摆不定。 特朗普有意将关税收入发放给民众，可能引发通胀，影响商品需求和价 格。市场关注 AI 泡沫破裂时间点，货币政策转向可能成为触发因素。 黄金未来可能在 4,000 美元以上震荡，逐步上行，需波动率下降至 15- 20 左右才能确认稳定。白银需等待流动性宽松后经济修复带来的正面作 用，大概率将在 50 美元上下震荡。 全球铜需求中，电芯、AI 和电网相关领域占比预计约为 60%。冶炼铜产 量每周小幅下降，反内卷预期强化。短期内铜价将在 1.1 万至 1.5 万美 元之间震荡，明年预计偏短缺，中期大概率上涨。 Q&A 当前金属市场的估值和交易时间点如何评估？ 目前许多公司的估值水平，或者说板块 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scode 公司研究丨点评报告丨宝光股份（ Msg1] 600379.SH） [Table_Title] 短期盈利能力有所承压，期待高盈利业务放量 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年三季报。公司 2025 前三季度营业收入 9.5 亿元，同比-18.0%；归母净利润 0.5 亿元，同比-28.3%；扣非净利润 0.5 亿元，同比-27.2%。单季度看，公司 2025Q3 营业收 入 3.1 亿元，同比+0.3%，环比-2.1%；归母净利润 0.1 亿元，同比-46.9%，环比-33.6%；扣非 净利润 0.1 亿元，同比-43.0%，环比-32.6%。 1 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 邬博华 曹海花 司鸿历 袁澎 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490522030001 SAC：S0490520080002 SAC：S0490524010001 SFC：BQK482 SFC：BVD284 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com [Table_scodeMsg2] ...

新增79公里"电力动脉" 珲春电网可靠性大幅增强 中新网吉林珲春11月18日电 (记者 郭佳)经过14个月的建设，吉林延边珲春开发区(柳亭)220千伏输变电 工程18日正式竣工。随着珲春柳亭220千伏变电站投入运行，当地未来十年用电负荷增长将得到有力保 障。 近年来，珲春市加快推进东北亚跨境电商产业园、海洋经济科技孵化园、东北亚光电产业园、互贸进口 商品落地加工基地等重点项目，区域产业集群效应日益显现，带动用电需求快速增长。据预测，近期该 地区新增负荷将达到26兆瓦。 为精准对接区域发展需求，国网延边供电公司规划并实施了此项工程。该工程是珲春近年来单体投资规 模最大、覆盖范围最广的输变电项目，动态投资达3.34亿元。工程新建2台180兆伏安主变压器，并配套 架设架空线路，总长度达79.206公里。 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 珲春柳亭220千伏变电站。(国网延边供电公司供图) 国网延边供电公司业主项目经理范征介绍，该工程是"十四五 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.13 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.4%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 700 million yuan, up 15.6% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 680 million yuan, an increase of 14.5% year-on-year [2][4] - In Q3 2025 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 2.11 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.6%, although it saw a quarter-on-quarter decline of 3.7%. The net profit for the same quarter was 230 million yuan, up 22.8% year-on-year and down 2.9% quarter-on-quarter [2][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's gross profit margin was 30.77%, a decrease of 2.93 percentage points year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the gross profit margin was 31.24%, down 2.97 percentage points year-on-year but up 1.83 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [10] - The total operating expenses for the first three quarters of 2025 accounted for 17.64% of revenue, a decrease of 2.53 percentage points year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the expense ratio was 17.71%, down 4.76% year-on-year [10] Business Development - The company is expanding its non-grid business, which is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth. The new products and technologies are beginning to penetrate the market more rapidly [10] - The company anticipates that the net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 could reach 844 million yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 28 times [10]

今年以来，国网营口供电公司紧扣"十四五"电网规划收官目标任务，推动基建项目呈现"投资完成 稳、工程推进快、投产率高"的良好态势。截至10月底，今年5个新开工项目全部开工建设，续建工程顺 利推进。尤其是于杨220千伏输变电工程等5项工程的建成投运，为当地工业园区和乡村发展提供了强劲 电力引擎，还有效促进清洁能源并网消纳，为营口地区能源转型注入绿色动能。 当好电力"先行官"，赋能发展"加速度"。国网营口供电公司将全力冲刺四季度，严控安全、质量和 进度，强化冬季施工风险防控，确保工程建设按计划推进。随着电网工程陆续建成投运，将进一步优化 营口电网结构，为营口高质量发展蓄势赋能。 初冬时节，国网营口供电公司500千伏虎官变电站220千伏配套送出工程建设现场依然一派热火朝天 的奋战景象。作业人员有序进行铁塔组立、导线展放作业，吊车臂架高耸，银线穿梭山野，一场与时间 赛跑、与天气博弈的电网建设收官战全面打响。 目前，该工程进入全面攻坚阶段，工程全线涉及多处高速公路、铁路等"三跨"关键段，施工难度 大、协调任务重。为确保工程顺利推进，国网营口供电公司积极与高速公路、铁路等管理单位建立协同 机制，组建电网建设联合临时党支部。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Global copper prices have surged due to supply disruptions caused by mining accidents, particularly in Indonesia's Grasberg mine, leading to a shift from surplus to shortage in the copper market [1][2]. Group 1: Supply Disruptions - The LME copper futures price has exceeded $10,000 per ton, marking a nearly 13-month high, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 20% [1]. - A significant mining accident in Indonesia's Grasberg mine has led to a production cut of over 400,000 tons over the next two years, with full recovery not expected until 2027 [1]. - Other countries, including Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo, have also experienced production reductions due to natural disasters, exacerbating the global copper supply chain issues [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The global copper ore grade has been declining for over a decade, increasing extraction difficulty and costs, while recent mining accidents have led to upward revisions in copper price forecasts by major banks [2]. - Global copper production is expected to grow only 0.2% this year, significantly lower than the previously anticipated 0.8% [2]. - Demand for copper is being driven by sectors such as AI, electric vehicles, and renewable energy, with electric vehicles requiring three times more copper than traditional fuel vehicles [2]. Group 3: Future Price Outlook - Analysts predict that the sharp reduction in copper production will support high prices, with copper entering a period of strong demand [3]. - China remains the largest consumer of copper globally, with robust demand driven by investments in power grids and low-carbon transitions [3]. - The future trajectory of copper prices remains uncertain, influenced by supply interruptions, high demand, and potential monetary policy changes from the Federal Reserve [3].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company recognized a net after-tax non-recurring charge of $75 million, or $0.20 per share, related to offshore wind liability, which increased the estimated liability for future payments to GIP by approximately $285 million, offset by $210 million of tax benefits [16][17] - GAAP earnings for Q3 2025 were $0.99 per share, compared to a loss of $0.33 per share in Q3 2024, while non-GAAP recurring earnings for Q3 2025 were $1.19 per share, up from $1.13 per share in the prior year [17] - The FFO to debt ratio was 12.7% as of Q2 2025, reflecting an improvement of over 300 basis points from December 2024, and is expected to exceed 13% for Q3 2025 [22][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Electric transmission earnings increased by $0.01 per share due to higher revenues from continued investment in the transmission system [18] - Electric distribution earnings rose by $0.03 per share, reflecting distribution rate increases in New Hampshire and Massachusetts [18] - Natural gas segment earnings improved by $0.04 per share, primarily due to base distribution rate increases in Massachusetts [18] - Water distribution earnings decreased by $0.02 per share due to higher O&M and depreciation expenses [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Year-to-date weather-normalized load growth was 2%, with a peak of over 12 gigawatts recorded this summer, the highest since 2013 [11] - The company is experiencing robust load growth driven by electrification of transportation and heating, decarbonization initiatives, and economic expansion across manufacturing and commercial sectors [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on executing key strategic initiatives to drive sustainable growth and strengthen its balance sheet [4] - There is a strong emphasis on infrastructure investments, with nearly $5 billion planned for the year, and a five-year capital plan of $24.2 billion [9][21] - The company is pursuing numerous transmission projects to accommodate increasing electric demand and improve regional reliability [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the regulatory environment in Connecticut, highlighting opportunities for collaboration with the new PURA commissioners [5][6] - The company aims to deliver reliable, sustainable energy while maintaining affordability for customers through cost-effective investments and efficient operations [15] - Management reaffirmed a longer-term EPS growth rate of 5%-7% off the 2024 non-GAAP EPS base, driven by disciplined execution of the strategic plan [25] Other Important Information - The company has installed over 40,000 AMI meters in Massachusetts and completed the communication network deployment in the western portion of its service territory [10] - The company is expanding energy efficiency programs to provide incentives for residential and low-income customers [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on Yankee Gas and alternative resolution - Management indicated that the decision from PURA was better than the draft decision, which is encouraging [26][27] Question: NSTAR Gas PBR proposal denial - The company filed a motion for reconsideration and intends to file a rate case due to the denial of the $160 million recovery proposal [28][29][30] Question: Regulatory environment and credit agency views - Credit agencies are in a wait-and-see mode regarding regulatory outcomes, focusing on collaborative efforts with the new commission [32] Question: Land acquisition strategy - The company is acquiring land for its regulated business to support energy injection and interconnections, not for data centers [34][35] Question: Revolution Wind project completion - The project is progressing well, with Ørsted reporting 85% completion, and the company expects to improve the project schedule [39] Question: Storm cost securitization timing - The company anticipates a decision on storm cost securitization in the second or third quarter of 2026 [40][41] Question: Tax rate expectations - The adjusted tax rate is expected to be in the low 20% range for this year, moving towards a more sustainable level in 2026 [46][47]

Group 1 - The article discusses the negative market sentiment driven by tightening liquidity and challenges faced by the AI sector, particularly with rising US Treasury yields and a strengthening dollar impacting risk assets [3][7]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, Nvidia, and Palantir have experienced significant declines, reflecting broader market fears regarding AI valuations and future revenue sustainability [4][6]. - The South Korean stock market, heavily influenced by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, saw a sharp drop, triggering a trading halt due to the significant weight of these companies in the index [6][7]. Group 2 - The A-share market is noted to be relatively independent from global market movements, with foreign capital showing a net sell-off trend, leading to a decrease in foreign pricing power [10]. - The A-share market has already experienced a decline of approximately 15% since October, which may explain its relatively smaller drop compared to other markets during recent sell-offs [10]. - A new market hotspot has emerged in the "electric grid and power" sector, with significant gains observed in related ETFs, indicating a shift in investor focus [12][19]. Group 3 - The article emphasizes the critical role of the electric grid in supporting AI development, as AI relies heavily on power for computational needs [15]. - There is a growing expectation for increased investment in global electric grid infrastructure, particularly in Europe, where aging systems are in need of upgrades [17]. - The electric grid equipment ETF has seen substantial growth, reflecting market interest in this sector, which is expected to benefit from the ongoing energy transition [19]. Group 4 - The third-quarter earnings reports from major banks indicate a slight profit increase, primarily driven by significant growth in non-interest income, particularly from investment gains [25]. - The article suggests that the bond market has underperformed compared to the previous year, yet banks have managed to report improved earnings through strategic asset management [26]. - There is a noted trend of increasing restrictions on QDII products, which may impact future overseas investment opportunities for investors [27].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 38.577 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.45%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.855 billion yuan, up 8.43% year-on-year [5] - The company's contract liabilities increased by 53.67% year-on-year, which is expected to support steady growth in performance [6] - The company has secured new contracts worth 35.432 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 23.46%, indicating a solid market share in domestic and international markets [6] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 14.333 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.65%, and a net profit of 1.903 billion yuan, up 7.81% year-on-year [5] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 26.47%, a decrease of 2.79 percentage points year-on-year, while the Q3 gross profit margin was 26.50%, down 3.13 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The projected revenues for 2025 to 2027 are 64.732 billion yuan, 72.659 billion yuan, and 81.699 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 8.166 billion yuan, 8.922 billion yuan, and 9.928 billion yuan [7] Market Position and Outlook - The company has made significant progress in expanding its overseas business, with international contracts increasing by over 200% year-on-year, and contracts outside the State Grid accounting for over 50% of total contracts [6] - The company is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory, supported by a robust order book and a strong pipeline of new contracts [7]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of four key provincial power supply projects centered around the 330 kV Jinzha Line in southern Shaanxi is expected to significantly enhance the regional power grid structure and support local economic development [1][6]. Group 1: Project Overview - The joint offensive campaign includes four major projects: the Gan-Zhe UHV project, the 750 kV Ankang transmission line, and the 330 kV power supply projects for the Xikang high-speed railway in the Shanyang and Ankang sections [2][6]. - The construction site is characterized by organized operations, with drones monitoring the lines and various engineering vehicles actively working [2]. Group 2: Construction Challenges and Progress - The construction tasks must be completed within 13 days, involving nearly 10 infrastructure construction and maintenance tasks, amidst challenges such as continuous rain and complex mountainous terrain [6]. - As of October 24, progress includes 25% completion of the Gan-Zhe UHV and 750 kV Ankang line crossing tasks, and 27% completion of the Ankang and Zhen'an line projects, with all operations expected to be completed by November 3 [6]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The successful completion of these projects will directly support the electrification testing goals for the Xikang high-speed railway by the end of 2025 and will significantly enhance the power supply capacity in southern Shaanxi, providing reliable energy support for high-quality regional economic and social development [6].