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关税升级重构供应链,内需迎发展契机
HTSC· 2025-04-07 08:56
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the consumer discretionary sector [7] Core Insights - The escalation of tariffs is reshaping global supply chains, leading to a structural impact on China's exports, while domestic demand is expected to benefit [1][11] - Companies with high domestic sales ratios are positioned to capitalize on the emerging opportunities in the local market as domestic brands continue to rise [1] Summary by Sections Home Appliances - Major home appliance companies like Haier are leveraging localization and production in Mexico to mitigate tariff impacts, thereby strengthening their market share in the U.S. [2][15] - The black appliance sector is seeing a shift towards Mexican production to buffer supply chain pressures, with companies like Hisense and TCL benefiting from cost control [2][16] Cleaning Appliances - The U.S. market remains highly dependent on Chinese manufacturing for cleaning appliances, with significant price increases expected due to high tariffs on imports from China and Vietnam [3][20] - Chinese companies are rapidly iterating products to gain market share in the U.S., with brands like Roborock surpassing local competitors in revenue [25][26] Light Industry and Home Furnishings - Southeast Asian production is likely to face challenges due to increased tariffs, but Chinese companies are actively seeking to adapt by expanding export regions and enhancing price transmission capabilities [4][29] - The reliance on the U.S. market for home furnishings has decreased, with exports expected to recover post-tariff adjustments [30][31] Cross-Border E-commerce - The supply chain disruptions are evident, but the competitive landscape may improve as smaller sellers face greater pressure due to the cancellation of the $800 tax exemption policy [5][39] - Major players are expected to benefit from market share consolidation as smaller competitors exit the market [40][41]