国际货币基金组织(IMF)亚太部主任克里希纳·斯里尼瓦桑日前在华盛顿接受新华社记者专访时表示，持 续的贸易紧张局势正导致亚洲经济增长放缓，亚洲低收入经济体可能遭受尤为严重的冲击。但他同时指 出，中国等主要经济体及区域内较小规模经济体，均具备可观的内需发展潜力。 IMF24日发布亚洲经济增长预测。数据显示，在贸易摩擦升级背景下，亚太地区今年经济增长率将放缓 至3.9%，较此前预测值下调0.5个百分点。斯里尼瓦桑指出，此次下调源于"关税措施、贸易紧张局势、 不确定性加剧以及金融条件收紧"。 他表示，除了增长预期下调之外，IMF还警示经济下行风险。不确定性上升、金融条件进一步收紧以及 外需持续疲软，这些因素都可能对亚太地区经济造成更严重的负面影响。 斯里尼瓦桑警告，一旦美国实施其此前宣布的高关税政策，经济规模较小、收入较低的亚洲国家将遭受 更严重冲击。 斯里尼瓦桑指出，不是所有国家都拥有足够政策空间应对外部挑战。当面临关税等政策冲击、外需萎缩 时，政策调节空间有限的经济体抗风险能力将面临严峻考验。此外，规模较小的国家国际议价能力相对 有限，在贸易谈判中灵活应对的余地也较小，前景不容乐观。 展望未来，斯里尼瓦桑建议亚 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the consumer discretionary sector [7] Core Insights - The escalation of tariffs is reshaping global supply chains, leading to a structural impact on China's exports, while domestic demand is expected to benefit [1][11] - Companies with high domestic sales ratios are positioned to capitalize on the emerging opportunities in the local market as domestic brands continue to rise [1] Summary by Sections Home Appliances - Major home appliance companies like Haier are leveraging localization and production in Mexico to mitigate tariff impacts, thereby strengthening their market share in the U.S. [2][15] - The black appliance sector is seeing a shift towards Mexican production to buffer supply chain pressures, with companies like Hisense and TCL benefiting from cost control [2][16] Cleaning Appliances - The U.S. market remains highly dependent on Chinese manufacturing for cleaning appliances, with significant price increases expected due to high tariffs on imports from China and Vietnam [3][20] - Chinese companies are rapidly iterating products to gain market share in the U.S., with brands like Roborock surpassing local competitors in revenue [25][26] Light Industry and Home Furnishings - Southeast Asian production is likely to face challenges due to increased tariffs, but Chinese companies are actively seeking to adapt by expanding export regions and enhancing price transmission capabilities [4][29] - The reliance on the U.S. market for home furnishings has decreased, with exports expected to recover post-tariff adjustments [30][31] Cross-Border E-commerce - The supply chain disruptions are evident, but the competitive landscape may improve as smaller sellers face greater pressure due to the cancellation of the $800 tax exemption policy [5][39] - Major players are expected to benefit from market share consolidation as smaller competitors exit the market [40][41]