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债券策略月报:2025年7月美债市场月度展望及配置策略-20250703
Zhe Shang Guo Ji Jin Rong Kong Gu· 2025-07-03 08:42
Group 1 - The report indicates that June economic data showed a slowdown, with retail and personal consumption expenditures falling short of expectations, and Q1 GDP revised down to -0.5%, reflecting the downward pressure from tariffs on the economy [2][3][4] - Despite the economic slowdown, employment data remained resilient, leading the market to maintain a "soft landing" outlook for the economy [2][3] - In June, U.S. stock markets reached new historical highs, while U.S. Treasury yields retreated from their highs [2][3] Group 2 - The report highlights that the 30-year, 20-year, 10-year, and 2-year U.S. Treasury yields changed by +25.3, +24, +23.9, and +29.5 basis points respectively by the end of June [3][12] - The 30Y-10Y Treasury yield spread remained unchanged at 49.8 basis points at the end of the month [3][12] Group 3 - The macro environment analysis indicates that the FOMC maintained the policy interest rate at 4%-4.25% in June, with a more positive outlook on economic uncertainty [4][66] - The report notes a significant divergence among FOMC members regarding the expected rate cuts and inflation outlook for the year [4][66] Group 4 - The report projects that the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries to foreign investors may decline due to the yield on U.S. Treasuries being lower than that of European and Japanese government bonds after currency hedging costs [6][19] - It suggests that the long-end U.S. Treasury rates have stabilized, with the 10-year Treasury still offering high allocation value in the 4.4%-4.5% range [6][19] Group 5 - The report recommends short-term trading within the 4.2%-4.5% range while waiting for a turning point in interest rates, such as significantly weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll data or inflation data [6][19] - Specific recommended instruments include TLT, TMF, and 10-year and longer Treasury futures [6][19]