Group 1 - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn on September 22, with Ethereum dropping below $4,100, a critical psychological level, and other cryptocurrencies like Solana and Dogecoin also suffering losses [1] - The futures market saw massive liquidations, with over $1 billion liquidated in just one hour, and a total of $1.7 billion liquidated within 24 hours, affecting over 400,000 traders, predominantly those who were long [1][3] - The macroeconomic environment, including the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates and political uncertainties regarding a government shutdown, has led to increased risk aversion among investors [2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the current economic climate is unfavorable, advising caution in investment strategies, particularly in high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies [2] - The upcoming U.S. PCE price index data on September 26 is anticipated to be crucial for future monetary policy decisions, with concerns that inflation may not be easily managed [3] - The high leverage used in futures trading has resulted in significant losses for traders, emphasizing the need for prudent investment practices [4]

美元指数目前徘徊在97.60附近，短期均线(10日和20日均线)呈微幅下行趋势，显示短线承压。RSI指标 自中性偏高回落至50附近，暗示多空力量相对均衡但下行动能渐起。 然而在此之后，由于通胀压力再度升温，进一步降息的门槛将显著提高，货币宽松的政策空间亦将趋于 收窄。报告认为，当前美国经济面临的核心问题并非需求不足，而是供给端成本持续上升。在这一背景 下，过度依赖货币宽松政策不仅难以有效提振就业，反而可能加剧通胀压力，甚至导致经济陷入"类滞 胀"风险——即经济增长放缓与通胀高企并存的困境。因此，美联储在未来政策路径的选择上需格外审 慎，平衡好支持就业与抑制通胀之间的关系。 周一（9月22日）亚盘早盘，美元指数最新价报97.78，涨幅0.12%，开盘价为97.63。中金公司 （601995）最新研报指出，鉴于近期美国就业数据表现持续疲弱，预计美联储或将于10月再次降息25个 基点。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4%-4.25%, with an expectation of an additional 50 basis points reduction by the end of the year, indicating a more dovish stance compared to previous projections [1][7] - Fed Chairman Powell characterized the rate cut as a "risk management" decision, highlighting concerns about a weakening labor market and rising risks to employment [1][7] - The market had largely priced in the 25 basis point cut prior to the announcement, leading to a mixed reaction in the dollar index and U.S. stock markets post-announcement [1][7] Group 2 - U.S. retail sales for August increased by 0.6%, up from a previous value of 0.5%, indicating a slight improvement in consumer spending [2][8] - Initial jobless claims decreased to 231,000 from 264,000, while continuing claims fell to 1.92 million from 1.93 million, suggesting resilience in the labor market [2][8] - The economic backdrop is characterized by a "stagflation-like" environment, with inflation concerns persisting despite the Fed's actions [1][7] Group 3 - Major global asset classes showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq Composite Index rising by 2.21%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.30% [2][28] - In the commodities market, CBOT corn saw the largest increase at 6.46%, while LME three-month lead experienced the largest decline at 0.72% [2][47] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 8 basis points to 4.14%, reflecting a divergence in global long-term interest rates [2][48]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate cut, reflecting its "survival wisdom" under political pressure from the White House, particularly from Trump, who has remained unusually silent on this decision [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was passed with a surprising 11-1 vote, showcasing unexpected unity within the institution despite external pressures [1][7]. - The rate cut is characterized as a "preemptive cut" aimed at managing risks before a potential economic downturn occurs [14][18]. - Powell's statements during the announcement emphasized that the rate cut was a "risk management decision" and downplayed expectations for rapid adjustments to interest rates [6][18]. Group 2: Economic Context and Implications - Recent adjustments to employment data, with a downward revision of 911,000 jobs, indicate a weakening labor market, prompting the Fed's decision to cut rates to prevent further economic decline [6][10]. - Historical precedents of preemptive rate cuts have led to varied outcomes, including soft landings, recessions, and high inflation, raising questions about the potential consequences of the current cut [15][17]. - The current economic environment is marked by persistent inflation pressures, particularly in the service sector, complicating the Fed's decision to lower rates [17][23]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the rate cut announcement, gold prices initially surged to a historical high before retreating, indicating market reactions to the Fed's signals [18][24]. - The dollar index fell to its lowest point since February 2022 but began to recover after Powell's remarks, suggesting a complex market response to the Fed's actions [18][23]. - Analysts predict that the 10-year Treasury yield will stabilize around 4.4% in the coming years, with the Fed expected to gradually lower the federal funds rate [23].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [2][3] - The nature of the rate cut is categorized as a preventive cut, aimed at preemptively addressing potential economic risks rather than responding to a severe economic downturn [3][8] - Historical analysis shows that preventive rate cuts generally have a positive impact on the U.S. stock market, reducing corporate financing costs and potentially stimulating mergers and acquisitions [4][5] Group 2 - The current economic environment is characterized by "stagflation," with a GDP growth rate of 2.4% in Q4 2024, indicating a gradual slowdown but not a clear recession [8][9] - The inflation rate remains relatively high, with core PCE and CPI growth rates at 2.86% and 3.2% respectively, complicating the effectiveness of the current rate cut [8][10] - The first phase of the current rate cut cycle has not met expectations, with the stock market showing weak performance despite multiple rate cuts [9][10] Group 3 - There has been a significant outflow of funds from the U.S. stock market, with approximately $259 billion exiting in the first half of the year, primarily moving to safer assets like bonds and money markets [13][15] - Non-U.S. markets, particularly in China and Europe, have seen increased foreign investment, with China experiencing a net increase of $10.1 billion in foreign holdings of stocks and funds in the first half of 2025 [14][15] - The trend of capital outflow from U.S. equities is viewed as a rebalancing of asset allocation rather than a mass exodus, reflecting investor caution regarding the U.S. economy and high valuations [15][16] Group 4 - The potential impact of the Fed's second phase of rate cuts on global markets will depend on whether the Fed adopts a moderate preventive approach or a more aggressive easing strategy [17][18] - If the Fed continues with a moderate approach, U.S. stock market funds are likely to remain within the domestic financial system, while some capital may seek opportunities in global markets [17][18] - An aggressive easing strategy could lead to a temporary boost in global markets due to increased liquidity, but risks of a sharp capital outflow could arise if inflation pressures force the Fed to tighten policy [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 18 marks the beginning of a new preventive rate-cutting cycle, with expectations for further cuts in October and December [1][2][4]. Summary by Relevant Categories Interest Rate Outlook - Most brokerages anticipate an additional 50 basis points of cuts within the year, but the long-term reduction may not meet prior market expectations [1][2][4]. - The Fed's internal decision-making shows significant divergence, leading to uncertainty in future rate paths [1][4][9]. Economic Projections - The prevailing view is a soft landing for the U.S. economy, although some brokerages warn that excessive monetary easing could lead to stagflation risks [1][4][9]. - The Fed's dot plot indicates a lower rate of future cuts than previously expected, with projections of 75 basis points this year and 25 basis points in the following two years [3][10]. Market Reactions - Short-term risk assets are expected to experience increased volatility, while mid-term outlooks remain positive for U.S. equities [3][6]. - The market had already priced in the rate cut, leading to initial gains in bonds and equities followed by corrections [6][10]. Sector Impacts - Sectors such as real estate and manufacturing are anticipated to benefit first from the rate cuts, with a favorable sentiment in A-shares and increased sensitivity in Hong Kong stocks due to improved overseas liquidity [7][8][12]. - The Fed's decision is expected to create more room for China's monetary policy adjustments, potentially leading to further easing domestically [2][12]. Divergence in Analyst Opinions - Analysts express mixed views on the Fed's approach, with some highlighting a hawkish tone in the risk management narrative, suggesting that continuous rate cuts may not be guaranteed [4][11]. - The Fed's focus on employment risks over inflation risks indicates a cautious approach to future monetary policy adjustments [9][12].

美联储9月18日凌晨如期降息25基点，这一牵动全球市场的举措，即刻引来国内卖方机构密集解读。 截至发稿，已有超过15家券商研究所发布相关研报，"符合预期"成为主流判断，而"10月、12月议息会议有 望各降息25个基点"获得多数认同。 多数券商认为，本次降息标志着美联储新一轮预防式降息周期正式启动，但政策表述与内部决策呈现明显分 歧，未来利率路径仍存变数;对于后续降息空间与节奏，机构普遍预期年内将再降50基点，但中长期降息幅 度可能不及前期市场预期;对美国经济前景的判断呈现分化，软着陆是主流预期，但部分券商警示过度宽松 可能引发类滞胀风险。 | | | 15家券商解读"美联储降息25个基点" | | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 券商 | 主题观点 | | 1 | 招商证券 | 降息指引低于预期 | | 2 | 华泰证券 | 上调降息预测,年内降息次数从2次上调至3次 | | 3 | 中金公司 | 美联储在供给症结下克制降息 | | ব | 中信建投 | 短期落地,中期延续 | | 5 | 中泰证券 | 全面看好非银板块 | | ୧ | 粤开证券 | 为中国货币政策打开操作空间 | | 7 ...

| | | 15家券商解读"美联储降息25个基点" | | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 券商 | 主题观点 | | 1 | 招商证券 | 降息指引低于预期 | | 2 | 华泰证券 | 上调降息预测,年内降息次数从2次上调至3次 | | 3 | 中金公司 | 美联储在供给症结下克制降息 | | র্ব | 中信建投 | 短期落地,中期延续 | | 5 | 中泰证券 | 全面看好非银板块 | | ୧ | 粤开证券 | 为中国货币政策打开操作空间 | | 7 | 财通证券 | 发布会发言偏鹰 | | 8 | 国盛证券 | 整体基调偏中性 | | ರಿ | 中信证券 | 如期落地,明年利率路径尚不清晰 | | 10 | 华西证券 | 矛盾纠结下的预防性降息 | | 11 | 浙商证券 | 风险管理式降息,宽松预期未必一帆风顺 | | 12 | 开源证券 | 美联储在分歧中寻找合适的降息路径 | | 13 | 湘财证券 | 降息25bp符合预期 | | 14 | 国泰海通 | 新- 轮预防式降息周期正式开启 | | 15 | | 东吴证券 基本符合预期,指引明年还有额外1次降息,相比预期偏鹰 | ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and the fourth cut since 2024 [1][2] - Powell indicated that the rate cut is a "risk management measure" and emphasized that there is no need for rapid adjustments to interest rates despite recent high inflation data [1][2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the rate cut announcement, gold and oil prices experienced a decline as the market had already priced in the 25 basis point cut, with gold prices dropping by 0.86% and SC crude oil falling by 1.10% [1] - The dollar index rose by 0.25% on the same day, reflecting reduced support for gold prices after the rate cut [2] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Powell expressed concerns that tariffs from the Trump administration may continue to push up commodity prices, complicating the balance between rising inflation and a weak labor market [2][3] - The potential for further rate cuts in October is suggested due to weak employment data, but rising inflation may limit future monetary easing [3] Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - The gold market is expected to remain supported in the medium to long term due to low interest rates and geopolitical uncertainties, with analysts noting that demand for gold as a value storage method is likely to increase [4] - Concerns about stagflation and the potential for fiscal-driven economic changes may further enhance gold's appeal as an investment [4] Group 5: Oil Market Fundamentals - The market is refocusing on fundamental factors after the Fed's rate cut, with expectations that lower borrowing costs will stimulate oil demand [5] - Recent EIA reports indicated a significant decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories, but the decline may not reflect increased demand due to lower production and refinery activity [6] Group 6: OPEC+ and Oil Price Outlook - OPEC+ has decided to increase production, but the current levels are low, leading to a mixed outlook for oil prices [6] - Analysts suggest that while oil prices may face short-term fluctuations, the fundamental support for current prices remains, and geopolitical factors could provide upward pressure on oil prices in the future [6]

从这个角度来说，华鑫证券预计后续降息预期仍有持续放大的空间，需要等待通胀的低基数效应的退潮 或者更弱的经济数据触发。 北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间，符合 市场预期。这也是美联储自去年12月以来，时隔9个月再度降息。华鑫证券判断后续的降息路径是"先滞 胀、再走弱、后通胀"。 从美股表现来看，虽然降息交易板块在议息会议中出现了回吐，但需要强调的是整体的流动性已经开始 出现了宽裕，因此利好小盘。华鑫证券认为，在类滞胀格局结束后，降息预期放大带动的降息交易依然 是值得把握的趋势新机会，当前是降息交易的"倒车接人"而不是降息交易的反转。 上证报中国证券网讯（刘禹希 记者 徐蔚）北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间 下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间，符合市场预期。这也是美联储自去年12月以来，时隔9个月再度降 息。 华鑫证券判断后续的降息路径是"先滞胀、再走弱、后通胀"。该机构分析，短期美国仍会进入到类滞胀 的格局，带来资产的波动放大，而后经济的弱现实压制再通胀预期，带动降息预期的放大，随后在经济 周期得到扭转后，重回长期 ...