点击小程序查看报告原文 8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在Jackson Hole会议的讲话被市场视为货币转松的 "鸽派"信号。但我们认为，鲍威尔的言论并没有给出降息持续性 与幅度的强指引，而只是向市场阐明美联储政策的"反应函数"——即在就业风险大于通胀时，美联储倾向降低利率。然而，在显著更高的关税税 率与收紧的移民政策之下，就业与通胀风险并存，如果通胀风险超越就业，鲍威尔仍可以使用同样的"反应函数"叫停降息。由此，市场不宜将鲍 威尔的讲话视为一系列宽松的起点，而是应认识到就业和通胀目标矛盾时，货币政策面临的挑战。若关税和移民政策进一步推升"类滞胀"压力， 使美联储进退两难，届时也不会出现真正意义上的货币宽松。市场风险偏好或将下降，波动亦将随之加剧。 鲍威尔在Jackson Hole会议的讲话中表示，"由于政策处于限制性区域，经济前景和风险平衡的转变可能意味着美联储需要调整货币政 策"（Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warra ...

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 策略 Strategy 美联储降息对我们是利好还是利空？ >>点击图片查看全文<< 随着9月份美联储降息预期升温（当前CME利率期货计入的降息概率为92%），市场对于美联储降息可能带来何种影响的讨论也逐渐增 多。除了对美国经济和美股市场本身的影响外，投资者最为关注的一个问题是，美联储降息对中国市场会有什么影响？是利好还是利 空？我们认为短期是利好，但是这个利好第一可能更短，第二也在结果上也不是最核心的主导。但有两种方式可以放大美联储降息的利 好，使其"为我所用"，一是以美联储降息作为窗口，实施更大力度的货币与财政宽松；二是结构性中美映射机会。美联储降息会提振当 前疲弱的美国房地产和传统制造业需求，因此从中美映射的角度，与地产链相关的出口、以及与投资相关的有色等部分大宗商品，可能 是直接受益的方向，这在2024年的降息周期前也出现过类似情形。 2025.8.17 | 刘刚 02 银行 Industry 居民存款搬家潜力几何？ >>点击图片查看全文<< 在2024年6月的报告《从"超额储蓄"到金融脱媒》中我们推演了打击"资金空转"和高息揽储后存 ...

摘要周五（8月22日），周四，美元指数持续走强，盘中一度升至98.67的日内高点，最终收涨0.43%， 报98.62；现货黄金开盘跳涨后持续下跌，盘中一度跌至3325.19美元的日内低点，随后收复部分失地， 最终收跌0.29%，收报3338.55美元/盎司；现货白银收涨0.56%，报38.10美元/盎司。 【行情回顾】 周五（8月22日），周四，美元指数持续走强，盘中一度升至98.67的日内高点，最终收涨0.43%，报 98.62；现货黄金开盘跳涨后持续下跌，盘中一度跌至3325.19美元的日内低点，随后收复部分失地，最 终收跌0.29%，收报3338.55美元/盎司；现货白银收涨0.56%，报38.10美元/盎司。 美国8月标普全球制造业PMI初值53.3，创39个月新高，预期49.5，前值49.8。美国8月标普全球服务业 PMI初值55.4，创2个月新低，预期54.2，前值55.7。数据公布后交易员减少对美联储今年两次降息的押 注。标普全球首席商业经济学家表示，8月强劲的PMI初值增加了美国企业在第三季度迄今表现强劲的 迹象。商品和服务售价的上涨意味着消费者价格通胀在未来几个月将进一步超过美联储2%的目标 ...

·银河期货：美国在未来陷入"类滞胀"仍是基准情景对贵金属形成一定支撑 ·五矿期货表示，昨夜公布的美国经济数据具备韧性，联储官员对于降息的表态相对鹰派，但仍需把握 当前联储即将步入新一轮降息周期的主线。此外，美国司法部官员致信鲍威尔，表示其计划调查美联储 理事库克，并敦促鲍威尔将库克移出理事会。今夜十点，美联储主席鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔央行年会中 发表讲话，当前市场对其鹰派发言已经有所定价，但其对于货币政策的表态若存在边际小幅的转松，则 对于金银价格将形成显著的利多因素。 ·Kitco Metals网站分析师Gary S.Wagner在最新点评中表示，尽管金价在美联储主席鲍威尔讲话之前小幅 走低，但金价仍保持着强烈的看涨倾向。金价若确认每盎司3300美元的支撑，则有望在此基础上再度走 强。他具体解释说，在市场等待鲍威尔讲话以从中寻找有关货币政策信号的同时，市场对美联储9月降 息的预期已经从一周前的"几乎确定"降低至75%。对货币宽松政策缺乏乐观情绪一直是黄金面临的最大 阻力。不过，金价自4月22日创下历史高点之后一直保持着弹性，虽然面临不同的看跌力量，但金价仍 维持在高位，这表明金价的真正驱动因素仍强烈看涨，最坏 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The market is awaiting Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting on Friday to verify the reasonableness of bets on a September interest rate cut. Due to the sharp rebound in the US PPI and the resilience of retail data, there are concerns that Powell may adopt a hawkish stance, leading to cautious trading sentiment. However, the interference with the Fed's independence by Trump's call for Cook to resign has weakened the US dollar and provided a rebound opportunity for precious metals. In the future, the potential for the US to enter a "stagflation-like" situation under tariff shocks supports precious metals, and it is expected that precious metals will continue to trade in a high-range oscillation pattern. [2][3] - For copper, the market focuses on the future interest rate cut rhythm and Powell's speech at the "Global Central Bank Annual Meeting." Domestically, the anti-involution sentiment has subsided, and commodities have generally declined. Fundamentally, the supply of copper ore has been temporarily alleviated, but the increase in LME inventory and the potential inflow of imported goods may put pressure on prices. Demand remains weak, with low restocking enthusiasm from end-users. [5][9] - Alumina's price is reverting to fundamentals as market speculation cools. Although the overall supply-demand situation remains in surplus, short-term supply disruptions due to maintenance plans at some alumina plants may limit price declines. Attention should be paid to the support of the futures price from the expected regression of the basis after it turns positive. [11][13][15] - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro environment is affected by the progress of the Russia-Ukraine issue and the anticipation of Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. Domestically, the "anti-involution" sentiment is waning. Fundamentally, the increase in aluminum rod production and the decline in aluminum ingot factory inventories have reduced the pressure on social inventory, and low inventory levels may make domestic aluminum prices relatively more resistant to decline compared to the international market. [18][21] - In the case of casting aluminum alloy, the supply is tightening due to the shortage of scrap aluminum, production cuts in some factories, and reduced imports. Demand remains weak, with downstream enterprises mainly engaging in just-in-time procurement. [26][27] - Zinc prices are under pressure due to the continuous increase in domestic supply and weak terminal consumption, leading to a build-up in social inventory. [29][32] - Lead prices are likely to trade in a range due to weak supply and demand. The consumption of lead-acid batteries is sluggish, and the losses of secondary lead smelters are widening, leading to an expansion in production cuts. [35][36][39] - Nickel prices are expected to trade in a wide range due to the large supply surplus and the lack of clear short-term supply-demand contradictions. The increase in refined nickel imports in July did not result in a corresponding increase in domestic inventory, suggesting the accumulation of invisible inventory. [41][42][43] - Stainless steel prices are expected to trade in a wide range, with limited upward momentum due to weak demand and downward support from cost factors. The global economic outlook, tariff policies, and Fed decisions continue to influence the market. [47] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to trade in a range, with the core contradiction being the change in sentiment and fundamental expectations. The market is influenced by the prices of coking coal and polysilicon, and the potential increase in production by leading manufacturers at the end of the month. [50][51][52] - Polysilicon prices are expected to trade in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. Although the fundamental situation is bearish due to oversupply in August, the price is supported by cost factors. The futures price is recommended to be bought on dips. [54][55][56] - Carbonate lithium prices are expected to rebound after a significant decline. The market overreacted to negative news, but the supply-demand situation may tighten in September due to reduced imports. The price is recommended to be bought after a sufficient correction. [58][60][61] - Tin prices are expected to continue to trade in an oscillatory pattern. The market is in a state of tight balance with weak supply and demand. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the recovery of production in Myanmar is expected to be delayed until the fourth quarter. [63][65][66] Summary by Directory Precious Metals Market Review - London gold rose 0.94% to $3,347.335 per ounce, and London silver rose 1.44% to $37.855 per ounce. The Shanghai gold and silver futures contracts also closed higher. The US dollar index fell 0.05% to 98.218, the 10-year US Treasury yield declined to 4.2868%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.08% to 7.177. [2] Important News - Trump called on Fed Governor Cook to resign, and Cook refused. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most officials believed it was appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged, but more officials were open to a September rate cut after the August 1 employment report. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 18.1%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 81.9%. Israel has not responded to the ceasefire proposal from Hamas. [2] Logic Analysis - The market is waiting for Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. The interference with the Fed's independence has weakened the US dollar and supported precious metals. The potential for the US to enter a "stagflation-like" situation supports precious metals in the future. [3] Trading Strategy - Go long on dips near the 5-day moving average for single positions, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [3] Copper Market Review - The night session of the SHFE copper 2509 contract closed at 78,730 yuan/ton, up 0.19%, and the LME copper closed at $9,721 per ton, up 0.38%. The LME inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 156,300 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 593 tons to 270,500 tons. [5] Important News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported keeping interest rates unchanged. Codelco will lower its 2025 production guidance due to an accident at its El Teniente mine. China's imports of copper scrap, copper ore, and refined copper in July showed different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year. [5][7][8] Logic Analysis - The market focuses on the future interest rate cut rhythm and Powell's speech. Domestically, the anti-involution sentiment has subsided, and commodities have generally declined. Fundamentally, the supply of copper ore has been temporarily alleviated, but the increase in LME inventory and the potential inflow of imported goods may put pressure on prices. Demand remains weak, with low restocking enthusiasm from end-users. [9] Trading Strategy - Copper prices are under pressure due to short-term supply increases. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [9] Alumina Market Review - The night session of the alumina 2509 contract rose 46 yuan to 3,155 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed slight changes. [11] Important News - A large aluminum plant in the northwest made a large-scale spot purchase, which led to a slight decline in spot prices. The national alumina production capacity and operating rate increased slightly. The alumina warehouse receipts increased by 2,997 tons to 75,050 tons. Overseas, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded at a price of $369 per ton FOB Australia for September shipment. China's alumina exports and imports in July increased compared to the previous month and the same period last year. The import of bauxite also increased significantly. [11][12][13] Logic Analysis - The market speculation sentiment has cooled, and the price is reverting to fundamentals. The supply-demand situation remains in surplus, but short-term supply disruptions due to maintenance plans at some alumina plants may limit price declines. Attention should be paid to the support of the futures price from the expected regression of the basis after it turns positive. [13][15] Trading Strategy - Alumina prices are expected to trade in a weak oscillatory pattern. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [16] Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night session of the SHFE aluminum 2509 contract rose 70 yuan to 20,590 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions declined. [18] Important News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported keeping interest rates unchanged. There are discussions about a potential meeting between Trump, Putin, and Zelensky. The main market electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 0.6 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,529 tons to 62,938 tons. A 600,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia has entered the construction phase. China's aluminum ingot imports and exports in July showed different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year. A project in Inner Mongolia is expected to be completed by the end of the year. [18][19][21] Logic Analysis - The macro environment is affected by the progress of the Russia-Ukraine issue and the anticipation of Powell's speech. Domestically, the "anti-involution" sentiment is waning. Fundamentally, the increase in aluminum rod production and the decline in aluminum ingot factory inventories have reduced the pressure on social inventory, and low inventory levels may make domestic aluminum prices relatively more resistant to decline compared to the international market. [21] Trading Strategy - Aluminum prices are expected to trade in a weak oscillatory pattern in the short term. Consider a long SHFE aluminum and short LME aluminum arbitrage if the Russia-Ukraine issue continues to ease, and exit if the talks are not successful. Pay attention to the widening of the contango when the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreases. Stay on the sidelines for options trading. [22] Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night session of the casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 45 yuan to 20,090 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions remained stable. [24] Important News - A policy document may affect the recycling aluminum industry. The weighted average full cost of the Chinese casting aluminum alloy (ADC12) industry in July increased slightly compared to June, and the industry's theoretical profit increased. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three regions increased slightly. [26] Logic Analysis - The supply is tightening due to the shortage of scrap aluminum, production cuts in some factories, and reduced imports. Demand remains weak, with downstream enterprises mainly engaging in just-in-time procurement. [27] Trading Strategy - Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to trade in a weak oscillatory pattern. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [28] Zinc Market Review - The overnight LME zinc market rose 0.58% to $2,786 per ton, and the SHFE zinc 2510 contract rose 0.41% to 22,300 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Shanghai remained stable, and the downstream showed a wait-and-see attitude. [29] Important News - China's zinc concentrate imports in July increased significantly compared to the previous month and the same period last year. The exports of galvanized sheets increased slightly, while the exports of zinc oxide and die-cast zinc alloy decreased significantly. The safety inspections in northern lead-zinc mines have increased, but there is no direct impact on production for now. [29][30][31] Logic Analysis - The continuous increase in domestic supply and weak terminal consumption have led to a build-up in social inventory, putting pressure on zinc prices. [32] Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the domestic social inventory situation. If there is a significant build-up, zinc prices may decline further. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [33] Lead Market Review - The overnight LME lead market rose 0.33% to $1,980.5 per ton, and the SHFE lead 2510 contract rose 0.18% to 16,775 yuan/ton. The spot price of SMM1 lead declined, and the downstream battery production enterprises mainly made just-in-time purchases. [35] Important News - China's lead-acid battery imports and exports in July showed different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year. Some secondary lead smelters lowered their purchase prices, but the arrival of scrap lead was not significantly improved. The LME received a registration application for a new lead brand. [35] Logic Analysis - The consumption of lead-acid batteries is sluggish, and the losses of secondary lead smelters are widening, leading to an expansion in production cuts. The supply and demand are both weak, and lead prices are likely to trade in a range. [36][39] Trading Strategy - Trade lead prices in a range by selling high and buying low. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [39] Nickel Market Review - The overnight LME nickel price fell $15 to $15,045 per ton, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 18 tons to 209,346 tons. The SHFE nickel main contract NI2510 rose 180 yuan to 120,370 yuan/ton. The premiums of different nickel products showed different changes. [41] Important News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that only two officials voted against keeping interest rates unchanged. NATO discussed Ukraine's security guarantee issue. The global refined nickel supply was in surplus in June and from January to June. [41][42] Logic Analysis - The large supply surplus limits the upward movement of nickel prices. The increase in refined nickel imports in July did not result in a corresponding increase in domestic inventory, suggesting the accumulation of invisible inventory. The short-term supply-demand situation is balanced, and prices are expected to trade in a wide range. [43][45] Trading Strategy - Sell out-of-the-money put options. [45] Stainless Steel Market Review - The main contract SS2510 remained unchanged at 12,830 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold-rolled and hot-rolled stainless steel remained stable. [47] Important News - A 600,000-set carbon steel and stainless steel high-end precision casting project started construction. The stainless steel inventory in Foshan decreased slightly. [47] Logic Analysis - The global economic outlook, tariff policies, and Fed decisions continue to influence the market. The concentration of steel mill maintenance in August and the subsequent planned resumptions have increased the sales pressure. The increase in the nickel iron price provides cost support, but the lack of demand limits the upward movement of prices. [47] Trading Strategy - Stainless steel prices are expected to trade in a wide range. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage. [48] Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures price declined due to the fall in coking coal and polysilicon prices. The spot prices also decreased. [51] Important News - A new product of a subsidiary of Xin'an Co., Ltd. was included in the list of excellent industrial new products in Zhejiang Province. [51] Logic Analysis - The core contradiction in the industrial silicon market is the change in sentiment and fundamental expectations. The market is influenced by the prices of coking coal and polysilicon, and the potential increase in production by leading manufacturers at the end of the month. The supply and demand situation is relatively balanced, and prices are expected to trade in a range. [52] Trading Strategy - Trade industrial silicon prices in the range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton by buying on dips near the lower end of the range. Consider a reverse arbitrage between the 11th and 12th contracts. [52] Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures price fell and then rebounded after the limit-down of lithium carbonate.，The spot prices increased slightly. [54][55] Important News - Trump stated that his government will not approve photovoltaic or wind power projects. [55] Logic Analysis - The polysilicon production in August is expected to be in surplus, but the price is supported by cost factors. The previous low price level provides strong support, and the high price level is limited by the potential large-scale selling for delivery. The futures price is recommended to be bought on dips. [55] Trading Strategy - Buy polysilicon futures on dips in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. Consider a positive arbitrage between the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Sell out-of-the-money put options and buy call options. [56] Carbonate Lithium Market Review - The carbonate lithium futures price hit the limit-down, and the spot prices remained stable. [58] Important News - A Chilean lithium producer expects an increase in sales in the third quarter and plans to submit an environmental research report for a lithium project next year. The government exposed two cases of tax fraud in the "new three" fields. The retail and wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in August showed growth compared to the same period last year and the previous month. [58][60] Logic Analysis - The sharp decline in carbonate lithium prices was due to market overreaction to negative news and the exit of large funds. However, the supply-demand situation may tighten in

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Derivatives Daily Report [2] - Date: August 21, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Commodity Research Institute [1][24][33][44][52] - Researchers: Che Hongyun, Wang Luchen CFA [2] Group 2: Market Review - Precious Metals Market: London gold slightly retraced last night's gains, trading around $3339; London silver had narrow fluctuations, trading around $37.8. Driven by the overseas market, the main Shanghai gold futures contract rose 0.3% to 775.12 yuan/gram, and the main Shanghai silver futures contract rose 0.63% to 9162 yuan/kg [3] - Dollar Index: The dollar index moved sideways, trading around 98.26 [4] - US Treasury Yield: The 10-year US Treasury yield edged higher, trading around 4.3% [5] - RMB Exchange Rate: The RMB continued its strong trend against the US dollar, trading around 7.177 [6] Group 3: Important Information - Trump Administration Move: Trump's camp officials called for an investigation into Fed Governor Cook over mortgage transactions, and Trump demanded Cook's resignation, while Cook refused [7] - Fed July Meeting Minutes: Many participants said the current interest rate is not far from the neutral level, and most officials thought it appropriate to keep rates unchanged. "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos said it reinforced existing information [7] - Fed Watch: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September is 18.1%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point cut is 81.9%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 8%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 46.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut is 45.5% [7] - Geopolitical Conflict: Israel decided not to respond to Hamas' ceasefire proposal for the time being [8] Group 4: Logical Analysis - Market Sentiment: The market is waiting for Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday to verify the bet on a September rate cut. Due to the sharp rebound in US PPI and resilient retail data, there are concerns that Powell may take a hawkish stance, so trading sentiment is cautious [10] - Impact on Precious Metals: Trump's demand for Cook's resignation has interfered with the Fed's independence, weakening the dollar and giving precious metals a chance to rebound. In the future, the risk of the US entering "stagflation" due to tariffs will support precious metals, and they are expected to remain range-bound at high levels [10] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips [11] - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [12] - Options: Temporarily stay on the sidelines [13] Group 6: Data Reference - Dollar Index and Precious Metals: Charts show the relationship between the dollar index and London gold/silver [15][17] - Real Yield and Precious Metals: Charts show the relationship between real yields and London gold/silver [21][23] - Domestic and Overseas Futures: Charts show the relationship between domestic and overseas gold/silver futures [22] - Futures and Spot: Charts show the relationship between futures and spot prices of gold/silver [25] - Domestic and Overseas Price Differences: Charts show the price differences between domestic and overseas gold/silver [32] - Gold-Silver Ratio: Charts show the gold-silver ratio on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Comex [38][40] - ETF Holdings: Charts show the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF [42] - Futures Open Interest: Charts show the open interest of gold/silver futures [45][46] - Futures Inventory: Charts show the inventory of Shanghai gold/silver futures [47][48] - Trading Volume: Charts show the trading volume of Shanghai gold/silver futures [50][51] - TD Data: Charts show the deferred fees and delivery volumes of gold/silver TD [53][54][58] - Treasury Yields and Break-Even Inflation: Charts show the relationship between Treasury yields and break-even inflation rates [55]

该会议由堪萨斯城联储银行主办，最初为农业研讨会，后逐渐演变为全球货币政策讨论平台，成为全球 货币政策的风向标。投资者希望借此捕捉各国央行对未来形势的研判，探寻政策路径的确定性信号。 今年杰克逊霍尔年会的主题是"劳动力市场转型：人口结构、生产率与宏观经济政策"。业界人士指出， 这一主题与美国近期劳动力市场出现的急剧变化紧密相关。 从数据看，美国5月至7月的劳动力市场出现急剧降温。5月和6月的非农就业数据被大幅下修超过25万； 7月的劳动力市场则继续降温，仅新增7.3万个非农就业岗位。工资增长也从2022年6%的年率放缓至约 3.9%。这些数据不但让市场大感意外，也使得美国联邦公开市场委员会内部出现明显分歧，两名理事 在7月的会议上就曾投票支持降息。 美国的通胀数据则阴晴不一。7月消费者价格指数（CPI）涨幅温和，就业市场则出现放缓迹象，强化 了市场对美联储可能在9月降息的预期。但通胀压力依然顽固。7月核心CPI环比上涨0.3%，为1月以来 最大增幅，年率达到3.1%。生产者价格指数（PPI）更是飙升0.9%，是三年多来的最大月度增幅。这些 数据表明，输入性通胀风险正在累积，关税可能已开始推高企业成本，并最终传导 ...

大宗商品研究所 贵金属研发报告 贵金属衍生品日报 2025 年 8 月 20 日 研究所副所长：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 【市场回顾】 1.贵金属市场：今天白天，贵金属走势分化，伦敦金小幅回补前日跌幅，当前 交投于 3323 美元附近，伦敦银再度下跌，当前交投于 37.1 美元附近。受外盘驱 动，沪金主力合约收跌 0.35%，报 772.68 元/克，沪银主力合约收跌 1.86%，报 9042 元/千克。 2.美元指数：美元指数窄幅波动，当前交投于 98.3 附近。 3.美债收益率：10 年美债收益率高位盘整，当前交投于 4.32%附近。 4.人民币汇率：人民币兑美元汇率小幅走强，当前交投于 7.179 附近。 【重要资讯】 邮箱： wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co 1.地缘冲突：①俄乌：知情人士：白宫考虑在匈牙利举办俄乌领导人峰会。② 美国与欧洲将立即着手为乌克兰提供安全保障，全面 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and others. It provides market reviews, important information, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each metal. Overall, due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Fed policies, and supply - demand fundamentals, the market is in a state of flux, and different trading strategies are recommended for different metals, mainly including temporary observation, waiting for new entry opportunities, and specific operations like high - selling and low - buying in certain ranges [2][6][11]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed down 0.5% at $3316.035 per ounce, London silver down 1.8% at $37.32 per ounce. Affected by the external market, Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined. The US dollar index rose 0.1% to 98.26, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell slightly to 4.3038%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.03% to 7.183 [2]. - **Important Information**: There are considerations for a Russia - Ukraine leaders' summit, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates is high. For example, in September, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 86.1% [2]. - **Logical Analysis**: The unexpected rise in US PPI and strong retail data have dampened the market's expectations of interest rate cuts. Geopolitical tensions are expected to ease. However, the US may face "stagflation - like" situation, so it's advisable to wait and see for new entry opportunities [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily observe in unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [2][4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,550 yuan per ton, down 0.23%. The LME copper closed at $9,684.5 per ton, down 0.69%. The LME inventory decreased by 450 tons to 155,100 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 873 tons to 269,900 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: Two US copper manufacturers raised prices by 5%, and First Quantum Mining started a $1.25 - billion expansion project in Zambia [6]. - **Logical Analysis**: The ore supply shortage has been temporarily alleviated, the LME inventory increase has slowed down, and domestic imports may increase, putting pressure on prices. Downstream demand shows different trends, with improved acceptance of prices [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily observe in unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [4][10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2509 contract fell to 3,087 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed declines or remained flat [11]. - **Important Information**: An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, and some alumina enterprises have maintenance plans. Alumina exports and ore imports increased [11][12]. - **Logical Analysis**: Market speculation has cooled, and the alumina market is in a state of oversupply. However, short - term supply is not significantly excessive due to maintenance plans [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may be in a high - level consolidation in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [13][15]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract fell to 20,500 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions rose [17]. - **Important Information**: The US expanded the steel and aluminum tariff list, and there are considerations for a Russia - Ukraine - US leaders' summit. Aluminum inventory remained stable [17][19]. - **Logical Analysis**: The resolution of the Russia - Ukraine issue may lead to changes in sanctions on Russian aluminum. The domestic inventory pressure has decreased, and the downstream has shown more active inventory - building [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: In unilateral trading, the price may decline with the external market; in arbitrage, short - term long Shanghai aluminum and short LME aluminum, and exit if the talks are not successful; observe in option trading [21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell to 20,055 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions were mostly flat or slightly increased [24]. - **Important Information**: Four - ministry policy affects the recycled aluminum industry, and the industry's profit has improved in July. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased [24][25]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and some factories have reduced production. The demand from downstream die - casting enterprises is weak [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may decline with aluminum prices in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [26]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc fell 0.5% to $2,770 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2510 fell 0.29% to 22,180 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was mainly among traders [28]. - **Important Information**: A zinc smelter in the northwest has a maintenance plan, and Tianjin has transportation restrictions [28]. - **Logical Analysis**: The domestic supply has increased, the terminal consumption is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating, putting pressure on prices [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable short positions in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [30]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead fell 0.33% to $1,974 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2510 fell 0.56% to 16,720 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was light [32][34]. - **Important Information**: A small - scale recycled lead smelter in the south plans to resume production [35]. - **Logical Analysis**: The consumption has not improved significantly, but the cost provides some support for the price [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try high - selling and low - buying within a range in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [36]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel fell to $15,060 per ton, and the Shanghai nickel NI2510 fell to 120,320 yuan per ton. The spot premiums of different types of nickel changed [38]. - **Important Information**: There are plans for a Russia - Ukraine - US leaders' summit [38]. - **Logical Analysis**: No detailed logical analysis provided in the text. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may fluctuate widely in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading; sell out - of - the - money put options [40]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract fell to 12,825 yuan per ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are in a certain range [42]. - **Important Information**: A German company proposed a tariff exemption for SMEs' steel imports, and the US expanded the steel and aluminum tariff list. A nickel - iron factory sold high - nickel iron at a certain price [42]. - **Logical Analysis**: Global economic prospects, tariff policies, and Fed decisions affect the market. The price is expected to fluctuate widely due to lack of demand drive and cost support [43][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may fluctuate widely in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading [45]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 8,625 yuan per ton, down 1.26%. Most spot prices remained stable [47]. - **Important Information**: Six - department held a photovoltaic industry symposium [47]. - **Logical Analysis**: The core contradiction lies in market sentiment and fundamental change expectations. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - and medium - term [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price may decline during the day; consider reverse arbitrage for the 11th and 12th contracts [50]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract closed at 52,260 yuan per ton, down 0.53%. The spot prices were stable and showed a slight increase [52]. - **Important Information**: Six - department held a photovoltaic industry symposium [52]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply is in excess in August, but the cost provides support. The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and there may be future policy benefits [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips within a certain price range in unilateral trading; conduct positive arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts; sell out - of - the - money put options [53]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2511 fell to 87,540 yuan per ton. The spot prices of electric and industrial carbonates increased [55]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in lithium - battery raw material imports, corporate production resumptions, and expansions. The US included lithium in the key enforcement industries [55]. - **Logical Analysis**: The spot market supply is tight, and the supply - demand gap may widen in September, supporting the price. The price may decline due to market sentiment and then rise again [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading; sell out - of - the - money put options for the 2511 contract [56]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2509 closed at 268,850 yuan per ton, up 0.88%. The spot prices adjusted downwards, and the trading was not active [58]. - **Important Information**: Peru and Indonesia released export data of tin [58][59]. - **Logical Analysis**: The LME tin inventory decreased, and the tin ore supply is tight. The industry is in a state of tight balance, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may continue to fluctuate in unilateral trading; observe in option trading [59].

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year's 4.7% [1] - The manufacturing PMI in July 2025 was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month and slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - The non-manufacturing PMI business activity index in July 2025 was 50.1%, slightly down from 50.5% in the previous month but similar to the same period last year [1] - Social financing scale increment in July 2025 was not provided, with the previous month at 1132 billion yuan and the same period last year at 770.7 billion yuan [1] - The year-on-year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 in July 2025 were 11.8%, 5.6%, and 8.8% respectively. M1 and M2 growth rates increased compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1] - Financial institution RMB loans had a net decrease of 5 billion yuan in July 2025, compared to an increase of 224 billion yuan in the previous month and 26 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - CPI in July 2025 was flat year-on-year, down from 0.1% in the previous month and 0.5% in the same period last year [1] - PPI in July 2025 was -3.6% year-on-year, the same as the previous month but lower than -0.8% in the same period last year [1] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) cumulative growth rate in July 2025 was 1.6% year-on-year, down from 2.8% in the previous month and 3.6% in the same period last year [1] - The cumulative growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in July 2025 was 4.8% year-on-year, slightly down from 5.0% in the previous month but higher than 3.5% in the same period last year [1] - Export and import values in July 2025 increased by 7.2% and 4.1% year-on-year respectively, both higher than the previous month [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - From January to July 2025, stamp duty was 255.9 billion yuan, a 20.7% year-on-year increase. Securities trading stamp duty was 93.6 billion yuan, a 62.5% increase. In July alone, it was 15.1 billion yuan, a 125% increase from July 2024 [2] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is promoting the research and development of innovative products like the BPI index futures and the opening up of polyester sector products [2] - Futures prices of many products such as cotton and urea have become important references for national macro - policy making. Many enterprises in different industries use the futures market to manage risks [2] - China's futures market has improved its internationalization level. As of July 2025, there were 24 specific open - ended futures varieties, and some futures companies have achieved 100% foreign ownership [3] - The London Metal Exchange's Hong Kong delivery warehouse was inaugurated, which is significant for Hong Kong's development as an international financial center and for promoting RMB use in commodity trading [3][4] Metals - The Chinese Foreign Ministry was unaware of reports about lifting rare - earth export controls to India [5] - Gold has had low volatility since June 2025. Global gold ETFs added 397 tons in the first half of the year. Gold prices may be supported by an over 80% probability of a September interest - rate cut [5] - The world's largest silver ETF reduced its holdings by 16.95 tons [5] - The US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% tax rate [5] - UBS expects global gold demand to reach a new high since 2011 and forecasts gold prices to reach $3600 by the end of March 2026 and $3700 by the end of June and September 2026 [6] - On August 18, lead inventory reached a new high in over a month, while zinc, tin, nickel, copper, and aluminum inventories decreased [6] Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Shandong plans to raise coke prices, with different increases for different types of coke starting from August 19 [8] - Mexico proposes to restore the North American Steel Committee to improve trade relations with the US and reduce Asian steel imports [8] Energy and Chemicals - On August 19, US crude oil futures fell 1.12%. The decline was affected by the expected US - Russia - Ukraine talks, weak demand from India, and increasing supply pressure [9] - Six government departments held a photovoltaic industry symposium to regulate the industry's competition order [9] - US API crude oil inventory decreased by 24.17 million barrels in the week ending August 15 [9][10] - India's imports of Russian crude oil decreased in July, and state - owned refineries will seek alternative sources in August and September [10] Agricultural Products - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized efforts to ensure a good autumn harvest, regulate the agricultural product market, promote farmers' income, and prevent risks [12] - The Ministry of Agriculture organized a meeting on preventing and controlling major pests and diseases in autumn crops [12] - New York Arabica coffee futures reached a two - month high due to concerns about Brazil's coffee production [12] - US exporters sold 228,606 tons of soybeans to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/2026 season [13] - Corn yields in Nebraska, US, are expected to be lower than in 2024 [14] - Indonesia opened its market to Brazilian beef and offal [14] - India will exempt cotton import tariffs from August 19 to September 30 [14] 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - On August 19, the central bank conducted 580.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan after 114.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [15] Key News - In July 2025, national general public budget revenue increased by 2.6% year - on - year. The cumulative revenue in the first seven months increased by 0.1% year - on - year [16] - Government - funded budget expenditures increased by 31.7% in the first seven months due to the expenditure of 2.89 trillion yuan from special bonds and special treasury bonds [16] - Some provinces' audit reports pointed out problems in the use and management of special bonds, including data inaccuracies, project delays, and misappropriation [17] - From September 1, three new conditions for withdrawing personal pensions were added [17] - The central bank increased the re - loan quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 100 billion yuan to support disaster - affected areas [18] - Guangdong plans to issue 2.5 billion yuan of offshore RMB local government bonds in Macau in late August [19] - The second batch of science and technology innovation bond ETFs is about to be submitted, with 14 fund companies involved [19] - There were uncertainties in the principal and interest payment of some bonds, and some companies faced major events such as being presented with a winding - up petition [19] - International credit rating agencies made ratings and outlook adjustments for some countries and companies [19] Bond Market Summary - Bond prices stabilized due to the stock market decline and the central bank's reverse repurchase operations. Most yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds decreased, and treasury bond futures rose [20] - In the exchange - traded bond market, some bonds rose while others fell [20] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.16%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose 0.37% [20][21] - Most money - market interest rates increased on August 19 [21] - Shibor short - term rates mostly increased [21] - The winning yields of some agricultural and national development bank financial bonds were announced, along with their subscription multiples [22] - Most inter - bank and silver - bank repurchase fixed - rate bonds increased [22] - Most European and US bond yields decreased [23] Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1820 on August 20, down 28 points from the previous day. The central parity rate was 7.1359, down 37 points [25] - The US dollar index rose 0.12% in New York trading, and most non - US currencies fell [25] Research Report Highlights - Shenwan Fixed Income believes that from May, the bond market has been driven by asset allocation. In August - October, the bond market may face pressure from capital diversion and crowded trading structures [26] - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that the bond market should focus on defense. Insurance funds may start to accept 10 - year treasury bonds at a yield of 1.8%, while trading funds should wait for opportunities [26] - Yangtze River Fixed Income expects that the central bank's mention of preventing capital idling will not lead to a tightening of the capital market. Liquidity will remain reasonably abundant [26] - CITIC Securities reports that the bank wealth - management scale exceeded 32.67 trillion yuan in late July, and it is expected to reach over 33.5 trillion yuan this year [27] - Shenwan Fixed Income expects local bond issuance and net financing to increase significantly in the next period [27][28] - Xingzheng Fixed Income points out that bond ETFs may face redemption and selling pressure during market adjustments. Investors can choose more resilient ETFs and take advantage of price discounts [28] - Yangtze River Fixed Income believes that the central bank may restart open - market treasury bond trading in the fourth quarter when the 10 - year treasury bond yield is in a certain range [28] - CICC Research Report states that the market's pricing of the Fed's interest - rate cut has increased, but the Fed will be cautious due to the risk of "stagflation - like" conditions [29] Today's Bond Market Reminders - On August 20, 142 bonds were listed, 171 bonds were issued, 117 bonds were due for payment, and 112 bonds were due for principal and interest repayment [30][31] 4. Stock Market News - On August 20, the A - share market had a narrow - range shock, with the three major indices falling and the North Exchange 50 hitting a new high. Consumer electronics, CPO, and liquor sectors led the gains [32] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.21%. Oriental甄选's stock price fluctuated greatly. South - bound funds had a large net purchase [32] - Brokers are competing for customers by offering low commission rates [32] - As of August 18, the margin trading balance exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan, reaching a 10 - year high [33] - Foreign institutions are increasing their positions in Chinese stocks. Many foreign institutions are optimistic about the Chinese stock market [34] - As of August 19, social security funds appeared in the top ten tradable shareholders of 89 stocks, with 20 new heavy - position stocks [34] - As of August 19, 666 A - share companies released their semi - annual reports, and over 60% achieved year - on - year profit growth [34]