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东鹏饮料(605499):25H1点评:费投短期干扰盈利能力,收入端保持良好增长势能
Orient Securities· 2025-07-28 14:47
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 357.00 CNY, based on a valuation of 185.6 billion CNY [2][4]. Core Views - The company is positioned to build a platform-based comprehensive beverage enterprise, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 9.13, 11.85, and 13.79 CNY respectively [2][9]. - Despite short-term disruptions to profitability due to increased sales expenses, the revenue growth momentum remains strong, driven by core products and new launches [8][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 11,263 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 32.4%. This is expected to rise to 30,570 million CNY by 2027, with a growth rate of 13.3% [3]. - Operating profit is forecasted to increase from 2,588 million CNY in 2023 to 8,975 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 16.4% [3]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 2,040 million CNY in 2023 to 7,173 million CNY in 2027, with a growth rate of 16.4% [3]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 43.1% in 2023 to 48.7% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to rise from 18.1% to 23.5% over the same period [3]. Revenue Growth Drivers - The company's traditional flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, and the new electrolyte drink "Buhuila" are key contributors to revenue growth, with the former generating 83.61 billion CNY in H1 2025 [8]. - The introduction of new product variants, such as the sugar-free version of the flagship drink, is aimed at expanding the consumer base [8]. - The company is focusing on precise market segmentation and channel adaptation to drive revenue growth, with a strong emphasis on expanding into various consumer scenarios [8].