3D集成产品XT260
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【招商电子】ASML 25Q3跟踪报告:单季EUV签单同环比高增长,2026年收入指引好于预期
招商电子· 2025-10-16 15:47
Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of €7.516 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.3%, aligning with guidance expectations [2][9] - Equipment revenue was €5.554 billion, down 6.3% year-on-year and 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, while service revenue reached €1.962 billion, up 27.3% year-on-year but down 6.4% quarter-on-quarter [2][9] - The gross margin stood at 51.6%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year and down 2.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, consistent with guidance [2][9] Order Intake - Q3 2025 order intake was €5.399 billion, a significant year-on-year increase of 105.1% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.6% [2][9] - EUV orders accounted for €3.6 billion, up 157.1% year-on-year and 56.5% quarter-on-quarter, while DUV and other orders totaled €1.8 billion, up 49.9% year-on-year but down 44.5% quarter-on-quarter [2][3] Regional Performance - Revenue from mainland China in Q3 2025 was €2.33 billion, down 16.5% year-on-year but up 54.2% quarter-on-quarter, representing 42% of total revenue [3] - Taiwan's revenue was €1.67 billion, up 87.9% year-on-year but down 14.7% quarter-on-quarter, accounting for 30% of total revenue [3] - Revenue from the US was €0.33 billion, down 73.4% year-on-year and 41.0% quarter-on-quarter, making up 6% of total revenue [3] Future Guidance - For Q4 2025, the company expects revenue between €9.2 billion and €9.8 billion, with a midpoint year-on-year increase of 2.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 26.4% [4][11] - The 2025 revenue guidance remains at €32.5 billion with a gross margin of 52% [4][11] - The 2026 revenue guidance is projected to be no less than the 2025 level, although a significant decline in revenue from China is anticipated compared to 2024 and 2025 [4][11] Industry Trends - Continued investment in AI infrastructure is driving demand for advanced logic and DRAM customers, with a shift towards EUV technology expected to enhance lithography density [11] - The company anticipates that the demand from Chinese customers will significantly decline in 2026 compared to previous years, although overall sales are expected to remain stable [11] - The transition from DUV to EUV technology is expected to support growth in the EUV business, driven by high-end DRAM and advanced logic chip production [11] Technological Advancements - The company showcased significant advancements in EUV technology and introduced a new 3D packaging lithography system [12][13] - The first ASML 3D integrated product, XT260, was delivered, which is expected to enhance production efficiency by up to four times compared to existing solutions [13][24] - The High-NA system has shown promising maturity, with customer feedback indicating a higher readiness level compared to previous technologies [12][27]