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全球债市新预警!40年期日债拍卖再遇冷,日债美债动荡何时终结?
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-05-28 04:55
Core Viewpoint - The Japanese bond market is facing significant challenges, highlighted by the recent auction of 40-year bonds which saw the lowest bid-to-cover ratio since July 2024, indicating a lack of investor confidence amid ongoing fiscal concerns [1][4][6] Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on 40-year Japanese government bonds rose by 8 basis points to 3.365% before the auction, reflecting market apprehension [3] - The bid-to-cover ratio for the 40-year bond auction was 2.2, down from 2.9 in the previous auction, marking the lowest demand level since November 2024 [4] - The 30-year and 40-year Japanese bond yields reached historical highs of 3.185% and 3.675% respectively, indicating a significant increase in borrowing costs for the government [3][8] Group 2: Global Bond Market Influence - The recent rebound in Japanese bonds on the 27th was short-lived, as concerns over fiscal stability in major economies, particularly Japan and the U.S., continue to exert pressure on bond markets [1][6] - U.S. Treasury yields also fell, with the 10-year yield dropping 6.25 basis points to 4.44%, reflecting a broader trend of declining yields in response to market conditions [1][3] Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts express skepticism about the ability of the Japanese bond market to attract strong demand in future auctions due to persistent fiscal uncertainties and the Bank of Japan's policy changes [5][6] - The ongoing fiscal challenges in both Japan and the U.S. are expected to keep bond markets volatile, with concerns about rising government borrowing costs and the impact of proposed tax reforms in the U.S. [6][7]