⑧伦敦基本金属全线上涨，LME期镍涨8.39%报18430.0美元/吨，LME期锡涨4.79%报44500.0美元/吨， LME期铅涨2.35%报2071.0美元/吨，LME期铜涨2.02%报13254.5美元/吨，LME期锌涨1.58%报3245.5美 元/吨，LME期铝涨1.56%报3133.5美元/吨； ⑨美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨1.04个基点报3.463%，3年期美债收益率涨0.84个基点报 3.528%，5年期美债收益率涨0.69个基点报3.713%，10年期美债收益率涨0.79个基点报4.173%，30年期 美债收益率涨0.3个基点报4.863%； ⑩欧债收益率集体下跌，英国10年期国债收益率跌2.5个基点报4.479%，法国10年期国债收益率跌1.9个 基点报3.552%，德国10年期国债收益率跌2.8个基点报2.840%，意大利10年期国债收益率跌3.5个基点报 3.531%，西班牙10年期国债收益率跌2.9个基点报3.269%。 ④欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨，德国DAX指数涨0.27%报24936.46点，法国CAC40指数涨0.32%报 8237.43点，英国富时100指数涨1 ...

【资讯导读】 ·美联储官员：目前可能已接近"中性利率" ·阻止购买俄石油特朗普再次威胁对印度提高关税 ·受美封锁影响委内瑞拉被迫削减原油产量 ·法国民众消费降温 ·2026年FOMC票委、明尼阿波利斯联储总裁卡什卡利表示，目前美国利率水平可能已接近"中性利率"， 未来美联储政策走向将取决于最新经济数据。 ·美联储前主席耶伦警告称，庞大的债务规模可能迫使央行将利率维持在低位以降低偿债成本，而非专 注于遏制通胀。据美国国会预算办公室预计，美国赤字今年将达1.9万亿美元，债务占GDP比重将升至 100%并持续攀升。 ·美国总统特朗普4日警告，如果印度不按美方要求限制购买俄罗斯石油，美国可能继续提高对印度产品 征收的关税。 ·美国对委内瑞拉继续实施石油禁运令，以迫使对方在政治上屈服，令其视作经济支柱的石油出口陷于 停滞。据路透社报道，委内瑞拉国家石油公司已在酝酿减产，因为一来出口受阻，二来储油设施已 快"满仓"。 ·瑞士联邦委员会5日发表声明说，瑞士决定冻结委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及相关人员在瑞士持有的所有资 产。此项资产冻结令立即生效，有效期暂定为4年。 ·多家市场机构最新调查显示，2025年节日消费季法国人价格敏感度明 ...

1.1月2日(周五)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.45%，标普500指数期货涨0.62%，纳指期货涨1.10%。 盘前市场动向 | | | | 謡 伦敦布伦特原油 | 2026年3月 | 60.64 | 61.36 | 60.4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 疊 WTI原油 | 2026年2月 | 57.24 | 57.93 | 57.0 | 市场消息 30年期美债收益率创四个月新高，经济乐观预期重挫避险需求。美债在2026年的第一个交易日下跌，其中30年期美债收益率升至去年9月初以来的最高水 平，原因是市场对美国增长前景的乐观情绪削弱了对避险资产的需求。30年期美债收益率一度攀升4个基点，达到4.88%;10年期美债收益率则攀升2个基点， 至4.19%。在此之前，数据显示美国上周初请失业金人数降至今年以来的最低水平之一。星展银行固定收益策略师Eugene Leow表示："长端收益率的震荡走 高可能反映了对美国经济乐观情绪的增强，这或许在股市中也得到了呼应。" 马斯克"自动驾驶狂热"难掩销量寒冬！特斯拉(TSLA.US)2026年面临更严峻考 ...

Market Movements - US stock index futures are all up ahead of the market opening on January 2, with Dow futures rising by 0.45%, S&P 500 futures increasing by 0.62%, and Nasdaq futures up by 1.10% [1] Economic Indicators - The 30-year US Treasury yield reached a four-month high, climbing to 4.88%, driven by optimistic economic expectations that reduced demand for safe-haven assets. The 10-year yield also rose to 4.19% [3] - Oil prices stabilized at the beginning of 2026 after experiencing the largest annual decline since 2020, with traders weighing the upcoming OPEC+ meeting and geopolitical risks. Oil prices fell nearly 20% in 2025 [3] - Copper prices increased on the first trading day of 2026, with LME copper futures rising by 0.63% to $12,543.70 per ton, following a 42% increase in 2025, marking the largest annual gain since 2009 [4] - Barclays economists predict that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice in 2026, with expected cuts of 25 basis points in March and June [4] Company News - Tesla (TSLA.US) is expected to report a fourth-quarter delivery volume of approximately 440,900 vehicles, a year-on-year decline of 11%. Analysts' forecasts for Tesla's 2026 performance have significantly decreased, with expected annual deliveries dropping from over 3 million to around 1.8 million [5] - Apple (AAPL.US) plans to reduce the production scale of its Vision Pro headset due to weak consumer demand, with IDC estimating only 45,000 units will be delivered in Q4 2025, down from 390,000 units in 2024 [6] - Ecovyst (ECVT.US) has completed the sale of its Advanced Materials and Catalysts (AM&C) division to Technip Energies for approximately $530 million, enhancing Technip's expertise in advanced catalysts and accelerating its heat pump system business growth [7]

Group 1: US Bond Market Trends - The US bond market is expected to experience significant volatility in 2025, influenced by factors such as Trump's return to power, inflation pressures, and the impact of AI on market dynamics [1][8][9] - The 10-year US Treasury yield saw dramatic fluctuations, dropping to 3.8% in early April before rising to 4.6% after Trump's tariff announcements, and then stabilizing around 4.2% later in the year [1][9][11] - The 30-year US Treasury bond has shown remarkable stability, with yields remaining unchanged around 4.8% throughout 2025, despite various macroeconomic challenges [11][12] Group 2: European and Japanese Bond Markets - European bond markets are facing rising yields due to political instability and increasing debt issuance, particularly in Germany and France, where yields have reached new highs [2][14] - Japan's bond market is experiencing a surge in yields driven by the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes and substantial fiscal stimulus, leading to a significant increase in long-term bond yields [15][17] Group 3: Corporate Bond Market Dynamics - The corporate bond market, particularly for high-rated tech companies like Oracle and Meta, has seen increased volatility, with yields rising above junk bond levels due to heavy borrowing for AI infrastructure [3][21] - Asset-backed securities (ABS) and high-yield corporate bonds have outperformed high-rated corporate bonds since November, attracting global investors seeking safer options amid market turmoil [3][35] Group 4: Future Predictions for 2026 - Predictions for 2026 suggest a shift in bond market dynamics, with long-term US Treasuries expected to outperform short-term bonds due to anticipated inflation stabilization and a potential dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [27][31] - High-yield bonds and ABS are projected to gain favor in 2026, benefiting from a macroeconomic environment characterized by soft landings and moderate interest rate cuts [33][35]

⑥美油主力合约收涨0.03%报58.4美元/桶，布油主力合约跌0.05%报61.84美元/桶； ⑦纽约尾盘，美元指数涨0.06%报97.95，离岸人民币兑美元涨117.5个基点报7.0076； ①美国三大股指普遍收涨，道指涨0.6%报48731.16点，标普500指数涨0.32%报6932.05点，纳指涨0.22% 报23613.31点； ②大型科技股涨跌不一，脸书涨0.39%，苹果涨0.53%，微软涨0.24%，亚马逊涨0.10%，英伟达跌 0.32%，特斯拉跌0.03%，谷歌跌0.08%； ③中概股涨跌不一，再鼎医药涨超6%，阿特斯太阳能涨逾1%，搜狐涨超1%，比特小鹿涨逾1%，拼多 多涨超1%。脑再生跌逾2%，硕迪生物跌超2%，霸王茶姬跌逾1%，金山云跌超1%，好未来跌逾1%； ④周三欧洲股市多数休市，英国、法国股市为半日市。法国CAC40指数收平，报8103.58点；英国富时 100指数收跌0.19%，报9870.68点； ⑤COMEX黄金期货收跌0.01%报4505.4美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货收涨1.04%报71.875美元/盎司； ⑧伦敦基本金属涨跌不一，LME期铜涨0.6%报12133美元 ...

转自：新华财经 【资讯导读】 •特朗普呼吁新任美联储主席"择机降息" •意大利通过争议预算案 拟将央行黄金"国有化" •美国Q3 GDP增速创两年新高 初值达4.3%远超预期 【市场资讯】 •美国总统特朗普发文表示，希望下一任美联储主席在经济与市场表现强劲时果断降息，而非因通胀担 忧过早收紧政策。他批评当前市场逻辑扭曲——"好消息反成利空"，强调低利率有助于推高股市、刺激 经济并缓解住房负担，并称股市繁荣或可带动美国GDP年增幅达10%至20%。 •意大利参议院通过2026年预算案，其中包含一项将央行持有的2453吨黄金"归全体国民所有"的修正条 款。此举已遭欧洲央行两次警告，批评者担忧黄金储备或被用于填补财政缺口，威胁央行独立性与金融 稳定。 •美国第三季度实际GDP年化季环比初值录得4.3%，显著高于市场预期的3.3%，为2023年以来最快增 速，显示经济韧性依然强劲。 •美国第三季度核心PCE物价指数年化季率初值上涨2.9%，与预期一致，较第二季度终值2.6%有所回 升；整体PCE物价指数初值上涨2.8%，亦符合预期，表明通胀仍处于温和上行通道。 •受运输设备需求疲软拖累，美国10月耐用品订单环比下降2 ...

转自：新华财经 【资讯导读】 •特朗普拟明年1月敲定美联储新主席人选 •美联储理事米兰警告：暂停降息或触发衰退 •欧盟延长对俄制裁至2026年7月 强化反规避机制 •日本财相：保留对汇率异常波动"大胆干预"权 【市场资讯】 •美国总统特朗普计划于2026年1月第一周正式提名下一任美联储主席。现任主席鲍威尔的四年任期将于 2026年5月结束。特朗普此前强调，希望继任者支持"增长友好型"货币政策，以促进经济扩张。 •美国财政部长贝森特表示，通胀正稳步向美联储2%的目标靠拢，预计2026年将成为经济增长与物价稳 定同步改善的一年。他指出，随着政府精简职位、提升效率，整体经济状况将进一步优化。 •美联储理事米兰警告称，若2026年停止降息，可能增加经济陷入衰退的风险。尽管当前尚无明显下行 迹象，但他强调，失业率上升应促使政策制定者继续采取宽松立场。 •克利夫兰联储主席哈马克表示，在美联储连续三次降息后，未来几个月利率政策应保持稳定。她曾反 对近期降息，认为当前主要风险仍是通胀顽固，而非就业市场疲软。 •欧盟决定将对俄罗斯的全面经济制裁延长六个月，有效期至2026年7月31日，涵盖贸易、金融、能源、 技术及运输等多个关 ...

【资讯导读】 ·中国外汇市场平稳运行跨境资金流动趋稳 ·美国财长乐观展望2026年经济前景 ·纽约联储主席：暂无降息紧迫性 ·日本央行加息至30年高点释放紧缩信号 ·全球市场步入"圣诞休市周" 【市场资讯】 ·国家外汇局数据显示，11月银行结售汇顺差为157亿美元，与10月基本持平；跨境收支顺差178亿美 元，略低于9–10月平均240亿美元水平。近期证券投资项下资金流动更趋平稳，显示外汇市场运行总体 稳健。 ·美国总统特朗普签署行政令，明确要求确保美国"太空优势"：2028年前实现载人重返月球，2030年前 建成月球前哨站初步架构，并部署月面核反应堆，同时探索在太空中部署核武器的可能性。 ·美国财政部长贝森特表示，通胀正稳步向美联储2%目标靠拢，预计2026年将成为经济增长与通胀走势 同步改善之年。他指出，随着政府职位精简，整体经济状况有望进一步优化。 ·纽约联储主席威廉姆斯强调，基于最新就业与通胀数据，当前并无再次降息的紧迫需求，进一步巩固 市场对美联储短期内暂停降息的预期。 ·美联储理事哈马克表示，未来数月无需调整利率，倾向在春季前保持政策稳定。她认为中性利率可能 高于市场普遍预期，并强调当前更需关注顽 ...

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.47% at 47,885.97 points, the S&P 500 down 1.16% at 6,721.43 points, and the Nasdaq down 1.81% at 22,693.32 points [1] - Major tech stocks collectively declined, with Tesla down over 4%, Nvidia down nearly 4%, Google down over 3%, Apple and Facebook down over 1%, Amazon down 0.58%, and Microsoft down 0.06% [1] - Most Chinese concept stocks fell, with Century Internet down over 3%, NIO down over 3%, Li Auto down over 3%, Pony.ai down nearly 3%, and Global Data down over 3%. However, Wanwu Xingsheng rose nearly 3%, Zai Ding Pharmaceutical rose over 1%, and Yum China rose nearly 1% [1] - European stock indices had mixed results, with Germany's DAX down 0.02% at 24,072.25 points, France's CAC40 down 0.25% at 8,086.05 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.92% at 9,774.32 points [1] Commodity Prices - US oil futures rose by 2.92% to $56.74 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures increased by 2.85% to $60.60 per barrel [1] - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.90% at $4,371.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 4.92% at $66.44 per ounce [1] - London base metals saw an overall increase, with LME tin up 3.05% at $42,275.00 per ton, LME copper up 1.30% at $11,742.50 per ton, LME aluminum up 1.03% at $2,906.00 per ton, LME zinc up 0.99% at $3,071.50 per ton, LME lead up 0.98% at $1,961.00 per ton, and LME nickel up 0.72% at $14,365.00 per ton [1] Bond Yields - US Treasury yields were mixed, with the 2-year yield up 0.43 basis points at 3.483%, the 3-year yield unchanged at 3.528%, the 5-year yield up 0.36 basis points at 3.698%, the 10-year yield up 1.36 basis points at 4.153%, and the 30-year yield up 1.72 basis points at 4.827% [1] - European bond yields mostly increased, with the UK 10-year yield down 4.4 basis points at 4.473%, France's 10-year yield up 2.4 basis points at 3.570%, Germany's 10-year yield up 1.9 basis points at 2.861%, Italy's 10-year yield up 2.4 basis points at 3.566%, and Spain's 10-year yield up 1.8 basis points at 3.296% [1]