Group 1 - The macroeconomic perception has fluctuated significantly, indicating that if the conflict evolves into a protracted war, it will impact global energy, supply chains, inflation, asset pricing, and the reassessment of great power security premiums [2][5]. - The market's understanding of the US-Iran conflict has shifted from a quick resolution to a prolonged struggle, leading to broader macroeconomic implications [4]. - Recent trading has shown a "compensatory correction," with macroeconomic fluctuations outpacing changes in the war's status, highlighting concerns over supply chain disruptions and escalating military actions [4][5]. Group 2 - A prolonged conflict will not only be a geopolitical issue but will also significantly raise energy prices due to longer shipping times, higher premiums, reduced supply, and persistent security threats [5]. - Since February 28, crude oil prices have surged, with WTI increasing by approximately 47% and Brent by about 55%, reflecting normal feedback within traditional supply-demand frameworks [5]. - The bond market is experiencing a phase of "giving up on fantasies," with the 2-year US Treasury yields rising above the upper range of the federal funds rate, indicating market skepticism about the end of the Fed's rate hike cycle [5][8]. Group 3 - Central banks' hawkish stances have intensified tightening fears, with the Federal Reserve discussing potential rate hikes and adjusting inflation expectations upward [8]. - The European Central Bank and the Bank of England have adopted more aggressive positions, with the ECB raising its inflation forecast significantly, which has led to increased expectations for rate hikes [8]. - The dollar index has appreciated by about 1.9% since February 28, reflecting both safe-haven demand and tightening liquidity expectations [8]. Group 4 - Various asset classes have recently breached critical levels, indicating a tightening liquidity environment, with significant declines in commodities, bonds, and equities [9]. - The energy supply shortage is beginning to impact demand, with industrial supply and global flight operations facing notable pressures [11]. - Southeast Asian countries are proactively reducing production scales in response to supply chain disruptions, which may further strain global economic growth [12]. Group 5 - The surge in aviation fuel prices by 140% is directly affecting fuel surcharges, leading airlines to consider reducing flight schedules, which could significantly impact the third sector's economic activities [13]. - The US economy was already exhibiting stagflation-like conditions before the conflict, with inflation not returning to 2% in a non-recession environment and zero growth in employment despite nominal increases [13].

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.05% at 48,977.92 points, the S&P 500 down 0.43% at 6,878.88 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.92% at 22,668.21 points [1] - Most large-cap tech stocks declined, with Nvidia down over 4%, Apple down more than 3%, Microsoft down over 2%, and Tesla and Facebook down over 1%. In contrast, Google rose over 1% and Amazon increased by about 1% [1] - Chinese concept stocks mostly fell, with Canadian Solar down over 11%, iQIYI down more than 6%, and NIO down over 4%. However, Kingsoft Cloud rose nearly 7%, Tuya Smart increased nearly 5%, ZTO Express rose over 1%, and Pony.ai gained nearly 1% [1] European Market - European stock indices had mixed results, with Germany's DAX down 0.02% at 25,284.26 points, France's CAC40 down 0.47% at 8,580.75 points, while the UK's FTSE 100 rose 0.59% to 10,910.55 points [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.97% at $5,296.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 7.77% at $94.39 per ounce [1] - U.S. oil main contracts increased, with WTI crude up 3.19% at $67.29 per barrel and Brent crude up 3.26% at $73.15 per barrel [1] Currency and Bond Markets - The U.S. dollar index fell 0.15% to 97.64, while the offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar dropped 168 basis points to 6.8612 [1] - U.S. Treasury yields collectively declined, with the 2-year yield down 5.10 basis points to 3.377%, the 3-year yield down 5.62 basis points to 3.377%, the 5-year yield down 6.37 basis points to 3.502%, the 10-year yield down 5.91 basis points to 3.943%, and the 30-year yield down 4.22 basis points to 4.613% [1] - European bond yields also generally fell, with the UK 10-year yield down 4.4 basis points to 4.231%, France's 10-year yield down 3.2 basis points to 3.217%, Germany's 10-year yield down 4.7 basis points to 2.643%, Italy's 10-year yield down 2.8 basis points to 3.272%, and Spain's 10-year yield down 3.6 basis points to 3.062% [1]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.63% at 49,482.15 points, the S&P 500 up 0.81% at 6,946.13 points, and the Nasdaq up 1.26% at 23,152.08 points [1] - Major U.S. tech stocks saw collective gains, including Microsoft up nearly 3%, Facebook up over 2%, Tesla up nearly 2%, Nvidia up over 1%, Amazon up about 1%, Apple up 0.77%, and Google up 0.66% [1] - European stock indices also closed higher, with Germany's DAX up 0.73% at 25,169.13 points, France's CAC40 up 0.4% at 8,553.11 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 1.18% at 10,806.41 points [1] Commodity Prices - COMEX gold futures rose 0.14% to $5,183.70 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 1.95% to $89.21 per ounce [1] - U.S. oil main contract fell 0.09% to $65.57 per barrel, while Brent oil main contract rose 0.45% to $70.90 per barrel [1] - London base metals saw an overall increase, with LME tin up 7.19% at $53,915.0 per ton, LME aluminum up 2.62% at $3,174.5 per ton, LME lead up 2.07% at $1,995.5 per ton, LME copper up 1.39% at $13,349.5 per ton, LME nickel up 0.76% at $18,045.0 per ton, and LME zinc up 0.22% at $3,387.0 per ton [1] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2-year yield up 3.10 basis points to 3.471%, the 3-year yield up 3.06 basis points to 3.486%, the 5-year yield up 3.29 basis points to 3.622%, the 10-year yield up 2.10 basis points to 4.052%, and the 30-year yield up 1.94 basis points to 4.699% [1] - European bond yields showed mixed results, with the UK 10-year yield up 1.2 basis points to 4.316%, France's 10-year yield down 1.2 basis points to 3.253%, Germany's 10-year yield up 0.1 basis points to 2.705%, Italy's 10-year yield down 0.6 basis points to 3.306%, and Spain's 10-year yield down 0.9 basis points to 3.108% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields have experienced a downward trend, with significant declines across various maturities, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment regarding inflation and interest rates [1] Group 1: Treasury Yields - The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 4.98 basis points to 4.0483%, with a total decline of 15.77 basis points for the week [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 5.45 basis points to 3.4014%, reaching a new low of 3.3951% when the U.S. CPI inflation data was released, with a weekly drop of 9.62 basis points [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield dropped by 3.75 basis points to 4.6953%, accumulating a weekly decline of 15.57 basis points [1] Group 2: Yield Spreads - The yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries increased by 0.477 basis points to +64.486 basis points, with a weekly decline of 5.945 basis points [1] Group 3: TIPS Yields - The 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield fell by 2.41 basis points to 1.7551%, with a total weekly decline of 12.25 basis points [1] - The 2-year TIPS yield decreased by 0.59 basis points to 0.7077%, with a weekly drop of 0.25 basis points [1] - The 30-year TIPS yield declined by 1.99 basis points to 2.4636%, accumulating a weekly decline of 12.01 basis points [1]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.13% at 50,121.4 points, the S&P 500 unchanged at 6,941.47 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.16% at 23,066.47 points [1] - Popular tech stocks showed mixed results, with Google and Microsoft down over 2%, Amazon down over 1%, while Intel rose over 2%, and Nvidia, Apple, and Tesla had gains of less than 1% [1] - Chinese concept stocks also had mixed performance, with Century Internet up over 12%, Kingsoft Cloud up 10%, and TSMC up over 3%, while NetEase fell over 4% and iQIYI dropped over 2% [1] European Market - European stock indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX down 0.53% at 24,856.15 points, France's CAC40 down 0.18% at 8,313.24 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 1.14% at 10,472.11 points [1] Commodity Markets - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.53% at $5,107.80 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 4.60% at $84.08 per ounce [1] - U.S. oil futures rose 1.45% to $64.89 per barrel, while Brent oil futures increased by 1.15% to $69.60 per barrel [1] - London base metals saw an overall increase, with LME nickel up 3.29% at $18,065.0 per ton, LME tin up 1.59% at $50,065.0 per ton, and LME copper up 1.00% at $13,239.0 per ton [1] Bond Markets - U.S. Treasury yields collectively rose, with the 2-year yield up 6.41 basis points at 3.512%, the 3-year yield up 5.87 basis points at 3.569%, and the 10-year yield up 2.77 basis points at 4.170% [1] - European bond yields collectively fell, with the UK 10-year yield down 3 basis points at 4.475%, France's 10-year yield down 2.6 basis points at 3.377%, and Germany's 10-year yield down 1.6 basis points at 2.790% [1]

Group 1: Government and Monetary Policy - The U.S. Congress passed a funding bill to resolve the partial government shutdown that began on January 31 [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that the Fed needs to lower interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year, while Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized the need for cautious monetary policy until inflation returns to target [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.85%, marking its first rate hike in 2023 and becoming the first major developed economy to raise rates since 2026 [1] Group 2: Real Estate and Economic Measures - South Korean President Lee Jae-myung announced that the government will take all necessary measures to curb real estate speculation, urging multiple property owners to sell before the expiration of a high capital gains tax exemption policy in May [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.34% at 49,240.99 points, the S&P 500 down 0.84% at 6,917.81 points, and the Nasdaq down 1.43% at 23,255.19 points [3] - International precious metal futures saw gains, with COMEX gold futures up 6.83% at $4,970.50 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 10.27% at $84.92 per ounce [3] Group 4: Oil and Bond Market - U.S. oil futures rose by 2.83% to $63.90 per barrel, while Brent oil futures increased by 2.55% to $67.99 per barrel [4] - U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed results, with the 2-year yield up 0.01 basis points at 3.570% and the 10-year yield down 0.59 basis points at 4.266% [4] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.22% to 97.39, with most non-U.S. currencies appreciating against the dollar [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has entered a technical partial "shutdown" due to the inability to complete the legislative process before the budget authorization deadline on January 31, despite the Senate passing a $1.2 trillion funding bill [1] - The Indian government plans to borrow a record ₹17.2 trillion for the fiscal year 2026-27, with a projected reduction in the fiscal deficit from 4.4% to 4.3% and a decrease in debt-to-GDP ratio from 56.1% to 55.6% [2] - South Korea's semiconductor exports surged by 102.7% year-on-year in January, reaching $20.5 billion, contributing to an overall export growth of 33.9% to $65.85 billion, setting a record for January [4] Group 2 - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has initiated an emergency operational plan due to the partial government shutdown, retaining only essential personnel to maintain basic functions until funding is restored [2] - The U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee is advancing a cryptocurrency federal regulatory framework bill, highlighting partisan divisions that may hinder its passage in the full Senate [1][2] - Japan's core CPI rose by 2% year-on-year in January, lower than the expected 2.2%, indicating a slowdown in inflation and reducing expectations for recent interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [3]

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.11% at 49,071.56 points, the S&P 500 down 0.13% at 6,969.01 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.72% at 23,685.12 points [1] - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with META up over 10%, Microsoft down about 10%, Tesla down over 3%, TSMC down 1%, ARM down 1.39%, and ASML up over 2% [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks showed mixed results, with Futu down over 2%, Bilibili and NetEase down over 1%, NIO up over 3%, and TAL Education up over 18% [1] - European stock indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX down 1.92% at 24,347.16 points, France's CAC40 up 0.06% at 8,071.36 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.17% at 10,171.76 points [1] Commodity Prices - COMEX gold futures rose 1.32% to $5,410.80 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 1.98% to $115.78 per ounce [1] - US oil main contract rose 3.64% to $65.51 per barrel, while Brent oil main contract rose 3.43% to $69.68 per barrel [1] Currency and Bond Markets - The US dollar index fell 0.20% to 96.16, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar decreased by 12.0 basis points to 6.9449 [1] - US Treasury yields were mixed, with the 2-year yield down 0.60 basis points to 3.557%, the 3-year yield down 1.39 basis points to 3.626%, the 5-year yield down 0.86 basis points to 3.814%, the 10-year yield down 0.59 basis points to 4.233%, and the 30-year yield up 0.01 basis points to 4.853% [1] - European bond yields collectively fell, with the UK 10-year yield down 3.3 basis points to 4.509%, France's 10-year yield down 0.9 basis points to 3.417%, Germany's 10-year yield down 1.8 basis points to 2.838%, Italy's 10-year yield down 1.9 basis points to 3.444%, and Spain's 10-year yield down 1.6 basis points to 3.202% [1]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.02% at 49,015.6 points, the S&P 500 down 0.01% at 6,978.03 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.17% at 23,857.45 points [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Nvidia rising over 1%, Google up 0.44%, and Microsoft up 0.22%. In contrast, Tesla fell 0.1%, Facebook down 0.63%, Amazon down 0.68%, and Apple down 0.71% [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks had varied results, with Atour down over 3%, Pinduoduo down over 3%, and Yuchai International down over 3%. Conversely, POLIBELI rose over 9%, Dajian Cloud Warehouse up over 6%, New Oriental up over 5%, and BeiGene up over 4% [1] European Market - Major European stock indices all declined, with Germany's DAX down 0.29% at 24,822.79 points, France's CAC40 down 1.06% at 8,066.68 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.52% at 10,154.43 points [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 6.46% at $5,411 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 10.06% at $116.62 per ounce [1] - International oil prices collectively increased, with the main U.S. oil contract up 1.78% at $63.5 per barrel and the main Brent oil contract up 1.56% at $67.63 per barrel [1] Currency and Debt Markets - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.63% to 96.35, while the offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar fell by 101 basis points to 6.9437 [1] - U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed results, with the 2-year yield unchanged at 3.5964%, the 3-year yield down 0.56 basis points at 3.640%, the 5-year yield up 25.90 basis points at 3.828%, the 10-year yield up 0.20 basis points at 4.243%, and the 30-year yield down 0.31 basis points at 4.855% [1] - European bond yields mostly declined, with Germany's 10-year yield down 1.7 basis points at 2.856%, Spain's down 1.1 basis points at 3.218%, France's down 0.9 basis points at 3.426%, Italy's down 0.4 basis points at 3.463%, while the UK's 10-year yield rose 1.9 basis points at 4.543% [1]

Group 1 - President Trump stated that the US dollar is performing well and should return to its "appropriate level" [1][5] - Trump announced an increase in tariffs on key products from South Korea from 15% to 25% due to delays in the approval of a significant US-Korea trade agreement [1][5] - The US government faces a risk of partial shutdown if Congress does not reach an agreement on six remaining funding bills by Friday midnight, affecting approximately 78% of federal government functions [1][5] Group 2 - Japan's Finance Minister reiterated the importance of coordinating with the US but maintained a cautious stance on commenting about specific exchange rate levels [1][6] - The US consumer confidence index dropped significantly by 9.7 points to 84.5 in January, marking the lowest level since 2014, indicating increased public concern about the economic outlook [1][6] Group 3 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.83% to 49,003.41 points, while the S&P 500 rose by 0.41% to 6,978.6 points, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.91% to 23,817.1 points [2][7] - COMEX gold futures rose by 1.91% to $5,179.60 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures decreased by 2.73% to $112.34 per ounce [3][8] - US oil futures increased by 3.2% to $62.57 per barrel, and Brent oil futures rose by 2.98% to $66.71 per barrel [4][9]