Core Viewpoint - The top six listed liquor companies in China are transitioning to a low-speed growth model, reflecting a structural change in the industry due to external economic pressures, market transformation, and inventory adjustments [1][3][4] Industry Performance - In Q1 2023, the total revenue of large-scale liquor enterprises in China was 196.3 billion, a slight increase of 0.38% year-on-year, while total profit decreased by 0.73% [3] - The production of liquor in China from January to April 2025 was 1.308 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%, indicating a potential eighth consecutive year of declining production if the trend continues [1] Strategic Adjustments - Major liquor companies are adopting more pragmatic and quality-focused growth strategies, with Moutai setting a revenue growth target of around 9% for 2023 [4][6] - Companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao emphasize stability and gradual progress in their development goals, reflecting a shift from rapid growth to high-quality development [4][6] Market and Channel Strategies - Companies are focusing on enhancing channel operation efficiency and quality, with Yanghe implementing product optimization and inventory control measures [8][10] - Luzhou Laojiao is adjusting sales targets and market policies based on consumer behavior, while Gujing Gongjiu is optimizing resource allocation for better effectiveness [10] Product Innovation - The industry is seeing a trend towards low-alcohol products, with Luzhou Laojiao's 38-degree Guojiao 1573 achieving over 10 billion in revenue [18][20] - The low-alcohol market is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of around 30% from 2021 to 2024, indicating a promising opportunity for smaller enterprises [20][21] Youth Engagement - The liquor industry recognizes the importance of engaging younger consumers, with companies like Wuliangye and Fenjiu launching targeted products and marketing strategies to attract this demographic [14][16] - The younger consumer segment (ages 25-40) accounted for 38% of liquor consumers in the first half of 2023, highlighting the need for brands to adapt to changing preferences [14] Conclusion - The liquor industry is undergoing a significant transformation, moving from rapid expansion to a focus on value creation and quality development, with both large and small enterprises needing to adapt to these changes to thrive in the evolving market landscape [21]

2025 年 05 月 07 日 Q1 略超预期，期待渠道改革成效 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：肖燕南 | S1050123060024 | | xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-05-06 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 129.49 | | 总市值（亿元） | 5026 | | 总股本（百万股） | 3882 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 3881 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 107.69-164.05 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 2933.66 | 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 (%) 五粮液 沪深300 相关研究 1、《五粮液（000858）：营销执行 提升年，稳定压倒一切》2024-12- 19 2、《五粮液（000858）：浓香龙头 迎复兴，酒业大王向前看》2024- 12-06 3、《五粮液（000858）：发布中期 利 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][8] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with strong sales collection [5] - The company is focusing on channel reform to enhance its market position [1][5] - The main brand is developing multiple product lines while creating flagship products in other liquor categories [6] - The company is expected to maintain its pricing strategy and restore channel confidence, leading to a recovery in brand value [8] Financial Performance - In 2024, total revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 891.75 billion and 318.53 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 7% and 5% [5] - Q1 2025 revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 369.40 billion and 148.60 billion yuan, both showing a year-on-year increase of 6% [5] - The gross margin for 2024 was 77%, with a slight year-on-year increase, while the net margin was 37%, showing a slight decline [5] - The company reported a significant increase in operating cash flow in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2970% [5] Product Development - In 2024, liquor revenue reached 831.27 billion yuan, with the main product line contributing 678.75 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.07% increase [6] - The company launched new products in the 45-degree and 68-degree categories, expanding its product matrix [6] - The average price of the main products increased slightly, contributing to overall revenue growth [6] Regional Performance - Revenue from the Eastern, Southern, and Northern regions in 2024 was 312.90 billion, 393.36 billion, and 125.01 billion yuan, respectively, with the Eastern and Southern regions showing stable growth [7] - The number of distributors for the main brand and its sub-brands increased significantly, indicating a successful expansion strategy [7] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to have EPS of 8.67, 9.26, and 10.00 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15, 14, and 13 times [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - Wuliangye reported a total revenue of 89.175 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in profit growth to a new low in recent years due to industry adjustments and intensified market competition [1] Brand Operations - Wuliangye continued to enhance brand influence through a multi-pronged strategy, maintaining stable prices for its core product, the eighth generation Wuliangye, and launching new products to enrich its product matrix [4] - The company achieved over 20 billion exposures through participation in major events like the CCTV Spring Festival Gala and the Paris Olympics, expanding brand visibility [4] - However, sales expenses exceeded 10 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 10.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.2%, with promotional expenses rising by 48.9%, indicating that high sales costs did not translate into proportional profit growth [4] Channel Layout - Wuliangye continued to optimize and expand its channel layout, adding 16,000 core terminals and increasing the number of direct sales stores to over 1,700 [4] - Online sales accounted for over 10% of total sales, with 18 million members attracted through online activities [4] - Despite these efforts, the rolling month-on-month revenue growth was only 0.59%, and net profit showed a decline of 1.41%, suggesting limited effectiveness of channel expansion amid weak market demand [5] Future Outlook - The company aims to focus on quality improvement, layout optimization, and deepening reforms to achieve stable growth in 2025, but faces significant growth pressure due to deep industry adjustments and increased competition [6] - Contract liabilities reached 11.69 billion yuan at the end of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 70.3%, indicating some performance reserves for the first quarter of 2025 [6] - Maintaining market share and profitability during the industry adjustment period will be a major challenge, requiring the company to find a new balance in brand innovation, channel optimization, and cost control [6]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 172 million yuan for 2024, an increase of 11.87% year-on-year, and a net profit of 27.7 million yuan, up 284.55% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 38.67 million yuan, a growth of 6.40% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.44 million yuan, increasing by 294.78% [1] Group 1: Market Expansion and Sales Strategy - The company is actively expanding its market outside Gansu province, with a 91.41% year-on-year increase in revenue from these regions, raising their contribution to total revenue from 14.59% to 24.96% [2] - Direct sales have become a significant revenue contributor, with a year-on-year growth of 75.02%, and a gross margin of 76.54%, exceeding the gross margin of the distribution model by 16.13 percentage points [2] - The company has seen a remarkable increase in non-recurring net profit over three consecutive quarters, with growth rates of 1583.23%, 179.79%, and 1391.46% [2] Group 2: Product Innovation and Quality Control - The company has enhanced its market competitiveness through product innovation and strict quality control measures, leading to multiple awards at international competitions [3][4] - New product development has been a focus, resulting in the launch of 19 new products, including various types of liquor and wine [4] Group 3: Legal and Financial Improvements - The resolution of historical legal issues has significantly improved the company's profitability and financial status, including a settlement of 4.3 million yuan for the Wuxi Meilin case [5] - All historical lawsuits have been resolved since the takeover by Gansu Shengda Group, which has positively impacted the company's financial health [5] - The company plans to continue strengthening brand building and optimizing management systems in response to the complex market environment in 2025 [5]

Core Insights - Wuliangye reported a revenue of 89.175 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, and a net profit of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% year-on-year, marking ten consecutive years of steady growth in revenue and net profit [1] - The company achieved a record high gross margin of over 77% in 2024, reflecting its resilience in a challenging industry environment [5] - Wuliangye's marketing strategy for 2025 focuses on enhancing brand value and market share, with significant restructuring of its marketing system and channel innovations [9] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Wuliangye achieved a revenue of 36.94 billion yuan, a 6.05% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 14.86 billion yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year [2] - For 2024, the main brand generated revenue of 67.875 billion yuan, an 8.07% increase, while the Wuliang fragrant series and other products contributed 15.251 billion yuan, up 11.79% [3] - The direct sales channel saw a revenue increase of 12.89%, reaching 34.389 billion yuan, with its share of total revenue exceeding 41% [3] Channel Development - Wuliangye expanded its distribution network significantly, adding 16,000 core terminals and enhancing its direct sales channel with new stores and upgraded outlets [4] - The company’s revenue from traditional channels grew by nearly 6%, with the eastern and southern regions being the main contributors [3] Strategic Initiatives - Wuliangye emphasized a balanced approach to volume and price, launching new products and enhancing its product matrix to maintain its leading position in the premium price segment [6] - The company’s marketing activities included participation in major events and collaborations with popular media, significantly increasing brand exposure [7] Management and Governance - Wuliangye's management team is undergoing a youth-oriented transformation, with new appointments aimed at enhancing cohesion and operational effectiveness [8] - The company plans to implement a deep transformation of its sales system to improve decision-making efficiency and market responsiveness [9] Shareholder Returns - Wuliangye announced a record dividend of 22.3 billion yuan for 2024, with a payout ratio increasing to 70%, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [11] - The company’s major shareholder plans to increase its stake by investing an additional 500 million to 1 billion yuan, signaling confidence in Wuliangye's investment value [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, but leading companies like Wuliangye continue to show robust performance with record revenue and net profit growth, marking ten consecutive years of such growth [1][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Wuliangye achieved operating revenue of 89.175 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, and a net profit of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% [4]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 36.94 billion yuan, growing by 6.05%, and a net profit of 14.86 billion yuan, an increase of 5.8% [4]. - Wuliangye's revenue and net profit have consistently grown for ten years, outperforming the industry average during a period of declining production in the sector [4]. Strategic Initiatives - Wuliangye is focusing on a strategic approach of "grasping sales, stabilizing prices, improving efficiency, and changing work styles" to adapt to industry changes [3][8]. - The company has introduced innovative products, including new high-end offerings, to enhance its product structure and cater to emerging consumer segments [6][11]. Brand and Marketing - In 2024, Wuliangye's brand exposure exceeded 20 billion views through participation in major events like the CCTV Spring Festival Gala [7]. - The company is optimizing its distribution channels, increasing the number of distributors by 82 to a total of 2,652, and expanding its direct sales channels significantly [7][10]. Shareholder Returns - Wuliangye has implemented a "dividend + buyback" strategy, announcing a total dividend of 22.3 billion yuan for 2024, with a payout ratio of 70%, marking a significant increase from previous years [12][13]. - The company has a history of substantial cash dividends, totaling over 104.1 billion yuan since its IPO, which is 28 times its initial fundraising amount [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - Wuliangye reported its 2024 annual and 2025 Q1 financial results, showing a steady growth in revenue and net profit, indicating a robust operational strategy despite a competitive market environment [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, Wuliangye achieved a revenue of 89.175 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 36.94 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.05% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 14.86 billion yuan, increasing by 5.8% [1][6] - The gross profit margin for liquor products exceeded 82% in 2024, marking a continuous increase since 2016, with Wuliangye's product gross margin reaching 87% [1][3] Product and Market Strategy - Wuliangye optimized its product system in 2024, focusing on a balanced pricing strategy and launching new products to meet diverse consumer needs [3] - The company reported a significant increase in sales volume, with liquor products achieving a total sales volume of 162,000 tons and an average price of approximately 513,200 yuan per ton [3] - The revenue from series liquor products reached 15.251 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.79% [3] Channel Development - Wuliangye emphasized enhancing its distribution channels, achieving a 12.89% year-on-year growth in direct sales channels, which now account for about 40% of total revenue [4] - The company added 16,000 core terminal points and 138 new specialty stores, optimizing its traditional channel structure [4] Contract Liabilities and Cash Flow - As of the end of 2024, Wuliangye's contract liabilities reached 11.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.3%, indicating strong market confidence [5][7] - The company reported a cash flow of 138.55 billion yuan and a significant increase in contract liabilities, both reaching historical highs [7] Shareholder Returns - Wuliangye announced a total cash dividend of 22.301 billion yuan for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 70%, the highest in recent years [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company is optimistic due to three main factors: active shareholder return measures, stable core business, and steady progress in innovative business layout [1][9]. Shareholder Return Measures - The company plans to conduct two dividends in 2024, with a second-half dividend rate of 55.07% and an overall annual dividend rate of 61.93% [1][3][9]. - The controlling shareholder has cumulatively increased holdings by over 1% [1][9]. Core Business Stability - The main subsidiary, Bianfeng Network, has shown stable performance, focusing on casual games and promoting a boutique strategy, with its core product, Bianfeng Guandan, achieving significant user engagement [1][4]. - Bianfeng Network's revenue for the year was 21.35 billion, a decrease of 3.43% year-on-year, while net profit was 5.29 billion, down 17.16% year-on-year, primarily due to strategic adjustments in social business [4]. - Fuchun Cloud's IDC unit construction is progressing steadily, with expectations for improved power utilization rates [1][4]. Innovative Business Layout - The Zhejiang Big Data Trading Center has completed consolidation and is expected to benefit from the completion of data element construction [1][5]. - The company continues to deepen cooperation with Alibaba, focusing on cultural service intelligence, large model applications, data business collaboration, and talent training [5][6]. - Two subsidiaries have developed AI algorithms that have been approved by the National Cyberspace Administration [1][6]. Financial Performance - For the reporting period, the company achieved operating revenue of 30.97 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.61%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.12 billion, a decrease of 22.84% [2]. - The company expects net profit attributable to shareholders to reach 5.75 billion, 6.37 billion, and 6.99 billion from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.33%, 10.94%, and 9.66% respectively [1][9].