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黑色金属行业研究:黑色金属周报:钢铁景气底部稳定-20251221
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-12-21 13:21
Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment rating for the steel industry, with a weekly increase of 1.9% in the CITIC Steel Industry Index, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by the same margin [2][11]. Core Insights - The steel industry is showing signs of stability at the bottom of its fundamentals, with an average profit margin of -21.9 yuan per ton of steel produced, and a profitability rate of 35.9% for steel companies [2][11]. - The hot-rolled coil prices have shown mixed trends, with the average price for 3.0mm hot-rolled coil at 3350 yuan per ton, up by 14 yuan from the previous week, while the 4.75mm hot-rolled coil averaged 3296 yuan per ton, an increase of 12 yuan [12]. - The iron ore price at Qingdao Port for 61.5% Fe powder averaged 795 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [14]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - The CITIC Steel Industry Index increased by 1.9%, indicating a stable bottom in the steel industry's fundamentals [2][11]. 2. Sub-industry Fundamentals Overview - The hot-rolled coil market is experiencing weak downstream demand, with inventory trends varying across regions, leading to expectations of price fluctuations [12]. - The coking coal market remains stable, with the main coking coal price at 1393 yuan per ton, and a cautious purchasing sentiment from downstream sectors [13]. - The iron ore market is seeing high shipping volumes, with a total of 35.92 million tons shipped globally, marking a significant year-on-year increase [14]. 3. Black Industry Chain Price Data Update - Steel prices are fluctuating, with specific increases noted in hot-rolled and cold-rolled products [34]. - Coking coal and iron ore prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, with ongoing market observations [13][14]. 4. Black Industry Chain Supply and Demand Data Update - Steel production is showing a decline in iron water output, with a decrease of 2.65 million tons to 226.55 million tons [13][14]. - Iron ore inventories at Chinese ports have increased, with a total of 162 million tons currently held [14].