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台积电(TSM.US)业绩强劲难掩危机,正被“高估”与“追兵”双重包围
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-07-28 08:02
Core Viewpoint - TSMC has become the world's largest foundry with a valuation exceeding $1 trillion, significantly ahead of competitors like Samsung and Intel, despite previous concerns about increasing competition [1] Financial Performance - TSMC reported consolidated revenue of approximately NT$933.79 billion (about RMB 228.03 billion) and a net profit of NT$398.27 billion (about RMB 97.26 billion), with earnings per share at NT$15.36 [2][3] - Revenue growth exceeded 40% year-on-year, with gross margin increasing over 5 percentage points, indicating enhanced pricing power; however, there are signs of demand slowing down in the quarter [3][4] Business Segmentation - TSMC's revenue from advanced processes includes 24% from 3nm technology and 36% from 5nm technology, while 7nm technology's revenue remains stable despite a declining percentage [4] - High-performance computing (HPC) remains a core pillar, accounting for over 60% of revenue with double-digit growth year-on-year, but there are concerns about the sustainability of AI demand [6] Cash Flow Situation - Operating cash flow for the quarter reached NT$500 billion (approximately $16 billion), with a dividend yield of only 1.2%, sufficient to cover dividends but facing high capital expenditures of $9.4 billion [8] - Projected capital expenditures for 2025 are expected to reach $40 billion, leading to an estimated annual free cash flow of about $25 billion, resulting in a free cash flow yield of less than 3% [8][9] Competitive Landscape - Intel is advancing its 18A process node and plans to expand capacity, while Samsung is accelerating its 2nm process development, posing potential threats to TSMC's market position [10] - The U.S. market's shift towards domestic manufacturing and protectionist policies may challenge TSMC's competitive edge, especially if Samsung establishes 2nm capacity in the U.S. [10] Conclusion - TSMC faces two core risks: high valuation combined with low free cash flow yield, and significant investments by Intel and Samsung aiming for key process breakthroughs that could compress profit margins [12]