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0605央行操作点评:买断式逆回购前进一步
Huachuang Securities· 2025-06-05 15:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pre - operation of the outright reverse repurchase is conducive to stabilizing the capital expectation, and the cross - half - year liquidity pressure is controllable. Attention should be paid to short - end allocation opportunities [3][5] - The central bank's toolbox has a more reasonable term distribution, and the liquidity tools for each term are relatively complete [4][17] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Outright Reverse Repurchase Operation Pre - operation - On June 6, 2025, the central bank will conduct a 1000 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a 3 - month term to maintain the liquidity of the banking system [2][11] - From April to June 2025, the outright reverse repurchase continued to have a small - scale net withdrawal, and the current balance is around 4.2 trillion. The pre - operation in June is mainly to consider the large - scale maturity of certificates of deposit and the concentrated issuance of government bonds [3][11] - The operation time is advanced, and the arrival rhythm of funds may be accelerated. In the future, the announcement may be released one day in advance, which is consistent with the MLF operation mode, facilitating institutions to arrange liquidity in advance [3][11] - The operation frequency is theoretically once a month. Whether there will be an additional operation in June remains to be seen, or the MLF may be flexibly increased at the end of the month [3][12] 3.2 Take Stock of the Central Bank's Toolbox - The central bank adjusted the "Monetary Policy Tools" section and disclosed the monthly investment of various tools for the first time, increasing a market communication channel [16] - The central bank's toolbox has a more reasonable term distribution, including short - term (7 - day reverse repurchase, overnight reverse repurchase), medium - term (MLF, outright reverse repurchase, and various structural tools), and long - term (reserve requirement ratio cut, treasury bond trading) tools [4][17] - The reverse repurchase tool fluctuates in the range of 0 - 3 trillion; the balance of the outright reverse repurchase and MLF is flexibly adjusted between 4 - 5 trillion; the PSL balance has declined to below 2 trillion; other structural monetary policy tools total about 3.9 trillion, accounting for about 22% of the relevant subject, and there is still about 1 trillion of the subject without a clear corresponding tool [4][21][22] 3.3 Cross - Half - Year Liquidity Pressure is Controllable, Focus on Short - End Allocation Opportunities - After the double cuts, the central bank's investment thinking is relatively positive. In May, after the reserve requirement ratio cut, the MLF, outright reverse repurchase, and 7D reverse repurchase maintained positive investment. The pre - operation of the outright reverse repurchase in June is conducive to stabilizing capital expectations [5][25] - Historically, the central bank has mostly protected the market during the cross - half - year period. It is expected that the risk of a significant tightening of funds is relatively controllable. The DR007 is expected to be in the range of 1.5 - 1.65% [5][31][33] - For short - end varieties, when the yield of 1 - year certificates of deposit of state - owned and joint - stock banks is above 1.7%, their allocation value can be considered. The cost - performance of short - term treasury bonds is relatively high, and attention should be paid to the impact of the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading on the short - end market [6][36][37]