记者丨 唐婧 编辑丨 曾芳 据新华社报道，中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议对当前经 济形势作出判断，我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，新质生产力稳步发展，改革开放迈出新 步伐，重点领域风险化解取得积极进展，民生保障更加有力，社会大局保持稳定。 会议强调，做好明年经济工作，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经 贸斗争，更好统筹发展和安全，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同 性。 会议还指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效， 继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适 度宽松的货币政策 ，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应， 加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度 ，切 实提升宏观经济治理效能。 对于"继续实施适度宽松的货币政策" ， 中信证券首席经济学家明明告诉记者，展望 2026 年，货币政策将在稳增长、防风险的基础上，更加注重稳预期并与积极财政形成合力。考虑到 2025 、年四季度经济内生动能有待加强、2026年上半年面临高基数压力，以及"十五五"开局 对"开门红"的更高要求， 预计货币政策或在2025年底至2026年上半年适度加力，通过总量宽 松降低社会融资成 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The bond market in the fourth quarter may move in a volatile manner. Short - term bonds have high allocation and trading value, and there is a possibility of an unexpected decline in inter - bank certificate of deposit rates at the end of the year. Long - term bonds have some room for repair due to the expansion of the term spread. Although there are many bullish factors in the bond market in the fourth quarter, redemption pressure persists, and trading should be based on an interval - oscillation strategy. With the increasing expectation of monetary easing, a more optimistic view of the subsequent bond - market situation can be taken [3][10]. - The restart of the central bank's bond purchases in October had a net purchase amount of only 20 billion yuan, lower than market expectations. The restart should be understood more as a signal, and high expectations for the purchase volume should not be held [3][10]. - The key impact on the market lies in whether the central bank will adjust the bond - purchase term to hedge against the potentially concentrated issuance of long - term and ultra - long - term local bonds in November, which may bring significant pressure to the allocation portfolio [4][19]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. How to View the Central Bank's Bond - Purchase Scale - **Viewpoint Review**: The bond market in the fourth quarter may move in a volatile way. Short - term bonds have high value, and long - term bonds have repair space. Bullish factors are numerous, but redemption pressure exists. With rising easing expectations, the subsequent bond - market situation can be viewed more optimistically [3][10]. - **Analysis of the Central Bank's Bond - Purchase Scale**: - **From the perspective of liquidity**: The central bank's bond - purchase space comes from the switch between tools. Since the beginning of this year, repurchase and MLF have been the main channels for the central bank to inject medium - and long - term liquidity. The medium - and long - term liquidity injection has been sufficient, especially after the second quarter, so there is no need to rely on the central bank's bond - purchase channel. At the end of the year, the central bank can increase bond purchases to make up for the concentrated maturity of MLF, but the operation space may be within one trillion yuan if mainly relying on bond purchases [10][11][13]. - **From the perspective of the central bank's bond maturity**: The cumulative scale of the central bank's bond purchases in this round should be limited to around one trillion yuan. The restart of bond purchases is a form of "roll - over," and the continuous purchase scale after the restart needs to reach around one trillion yuan to match the maturity volume. Otherwise, it may be a de - facto non - roll - over [15]. - **From the perspective of monthly purchase scale**: To have a relatively neutral impact on the market, the single - period injection scale may be small. If calculated based on a net weekly purchase of 20 billion yuan, the monthly net purchase scale can reach around 100 billion yuan. Concentrated incremental purchases may cause an abnormal decline in short - term Treasury bond yields, which is not what the central bank wants to see [16].

Group 1: Liquidity and Financial Indicators - The excess reserve ratio increased by 0.3 percentage points to 1.4% in September, remaining stable compared to June[6] - The general fiscal deficit reached a record high of 2.11 trillion yuan in September, significantly exceeding expectations by approximately 360 billion yuan[6] - Government deposits decreased by 780.4 billion yuan in September, marking the largest decline for the same period in recent years[6] Group 2: October Projections and Market Conditions - In October, government deposits are expected to rise by approximately 380 billion yuan, which is significantly lower than the same period in previous years, reducing negative liquidity impacts[15] - The average interest rates for DR001 and DR007 reached new lows for the year in October, indicating a continued state of liquidity easing[28] - The anticipated excess reserve ratio for November is around 1.3%, remaining stable compared to October and slightly higher than the same period in the past two years[3] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Future Outlook - The central bank's recent actions suggest a maintained easing stance, with expectations for potential interest rate cuts in the future to support economic stability[3] - The central bank's balance sheet showed an increase in claims on other deposit-taking institutions by 897.4 billion yuan in September, aligning with high-frequency data[14] - Risks include potential underperformance in fiscal spending and monetary policy not meeting expectations, which could impact liquidity and market stability[3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged for the fifth consecutive month, signaling a cautious approach to monetary policy amid fluctuating expectations of interest rate cuts and weak domestic real estate sales [1][3][6]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The stability of the LPR was anticipated following the PBOC's decision to maintain the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate at 2.75% while renewing 500 billion yuan [3]. - The one-year LPR has remained stable since a 10 basis point reduction in June, while the five-year LPR has gradually decreased from 4.3% since August of the previous year, indicating a shift from aggressive monetary easing to more precise support measures [3][6]. - The current banking net interest margin has fallen below 1.7%, prompting banks to lower deposit rates to create space for LPR stability, reflecting a balance sought by the PBOC between bank profitability and financing costs for the real economy [5]. Group 2: Economic Data and Policy Balance - The decision to keep the LPR unchanged is influenced by a balance between inflation and growth, with September's CPI showing zero growth and PPI rising by 0.4%, alongside rising international oil prices and potential import price increases due to currency fluctuations [6]. - Despite a GDP growth of 4.9% in Q3, concerns remain regarding a 9.1% decline in real estate investment and continuous negative export growth, suggesting that maintaining low interest rates supports manufacturing and infrastructure financing while avoiding additional pressure on the currency [6][7]. Group 3: Future Policy Directions - The PBOC's monetary policy committee has indicated that the LPR is likely to remain stable until at least December, with a focus on observing the effects of previous measures [7]. - Should certain conditions arise, such as a conclusion to the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle or significant changes in domestic inflation or real estate sales, the PBOC may consider emergency measures [7]. - The PBOC is more inclined to use reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts rather than interest rate cuts, with an average RRR of 7.4%, allowing for liquidity release while reducing bank funding costs [7]. Group 4: Structural Policy Tools - The PBOC has emphasized the use of structural tools, with over 6 trillion yuan in re-lending and a focus on targeted infrastructure projects to avoid broad monetary easing while supporting weak sectors [8]. - The deepening of interest rate marketization through deposit rate cuts and adjustments to existing mortgage rates aims to alleviate bank margin pressures and stimulate consumer spending [8]. - The unchanged five-year LPR, coupled with adjustments to real estate credit policies, suggests that certain cities may implement lower interest rate floors to stimulate local markets [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Liquidity easing is the most certain factor in the current bond market. Although there are some disturbances in October, as long as the central bank's attitude remains unchanged, the impact of tool maturities is relatively limited, and the government bond supply may shrink significantly, which will ease the tax - period disturbances. The probability of monetary policy tightening is low, and the DR001 and DR007 central levels in October are expected to remain slightly below 1.4% and 1.5% [3][66]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 August: Government Deposits Leaked Heavily, and the Excess Reserve Ratio Dropped to a Low Level - The excess reserve ratio in August decreased by 0.1pct to 1.1% compared with July, lower than the expected 1.4%, mainly due to the 337 billion yuan increase in government deposits instead of the expected decline. This was caused by the slowdown in narrow - fiscal expenditure growth, low broad - fiscal deficit scale, treasury cash fixed - deposit withdrawal, and slow use of replacement bonds [6]. - The central bank's claims on other depository corporations in August were slightly higher than the net funds injected through reverse repurchase, MLF, PSL, SLF, and other structural monetary policy tools. The legal deposit reserve of the central bank was slightly lower than expected, while currency issuance and foreign exchange holdings were close to expectations [15]. 3.2 September: The Central Bank Offset Exogenous Disturbances with Medium - term Liquidity, and the Fundamentals Fluctuated but the Central Level Remained Stable - The broad - fiscal deficit scale in September may be at a relatively high level compared with the same period in previous years. The expenditure of replacement bonds will cause additional leakage of government deposits, and the net financing scale of government bonds will decline slightly compared with August. It is expected that government deposits will decrease by about 810 billion yuan month - on - month, which will supplement liquidity [16]. - In September, bank reserve payments and currency issuance increased seasonally, with the former expected to rise by 310 billion yuan and the latter by 250 billion yuan. Foreign exchange holdings may continue to withdraw about 70 billion yuan in funds [16]. - In the open market, the central bank's net injection of pledged reverse repurchase in September was 390.2 billion yuan, the net injection of outright reverse repurchase was 300 billion yuan, and the net injection of MLF was 300 billion yuan. Assuming that PSL and other structural monetary policy tools had a net withdrawal of about 200 billion yuan, the central bank's claims on other depository corporations may increase by about 790 billion yuan month - on - month. It is expected that the excess reserve ratio in September will be about 1.4%, an increase of about 0.3pct compared with August, similar to June [16][26]. - Although the central bank did not continuously increase the injection during the period of rising funds in September, the average values of DR001 and DR007 in September were roughly the same as those in July - August, indicating that the central bank maintained a relatively loose attitude within the existing framework, and the change in its operation mode may be related to exogenous disturbances and tool positioning adjustments [28]. - Since the beginning of this year, the central bank has increased the scale of policy tool injections to offset exogenous disturbances such as government deposits and bond maturity. Since Q3, the central bank has shifted its injections more towards medium - term outright reverse repurchase and MLF. After the increase in medium - and long - term liquidity injection scale, the central bank has relaxed the control of short - term fluctuations in funds [35]. - In September, the central bank adjusted the 14 - day reverse repurchase to a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid, which may lower the 14 - day reverse repurchase interest rate. After the adjustment, the 14 - day reverse repurchase became a supplement to the 7 - day reverse repurchase, focusing on providing cross - quarter funds [38]. - The lower net lending of banks in September compared with June may be related to the weak sentiment of non - bank institutions and the decline in leverage willingness, which released potential risks in the funds market. The early progress of cross - quarter operations in September was also an important reason for the loose funds at the end of the month [41]. 3.3 October: Disturbances Mainly Come from Maturities and Tax Payments, but the Certainty of Liquidity Easing under the Central Bank's Care Remains Strong - In October, the broad - fiscal revenue and expenditure may show an anti - seasonal deficit, and the supply pressure of government bonds will be significantly weakened. It is expected that government deposits will increase by about 570 billion yuan month - on - month, significantly lower than the same period in previous years. After the National Day holiday, cash reflux may release about 150 billion yuan in liquidity, and the reserve payment base may decrease seasonally by about 30 billion yuan [50]. - In the open market, it is assumed that the balance of pledged reverse repurchase will drop to 2 trillion yuan at the end of October, corresponding to a net withdrawal of about 660 billion yuan in reverse repurchase. MLF and outright reverse repurchase may continue to be over - renewed, with net injections of 100 billion yuan and 300 billion yuan respectively. Assuming that PSL and other structural monetary policy tools have a net withdrawal of about 200 billion yuan, the central bank's claims on other depository corporations will decrease by about 460 billion yuan month - on - month. It is also assumed that the central bank will restart bond purchases of 100 billion yuan. Overall, it is expected that the excess reserve ratio in October will be about 1.2%, a decrease of 0.2pct compared with September, at a neutral level for non - quarter - end months [50]. - The central bank's Q3 monetary policy meeting continued the tone of the Politburo meeting in July. Although the meeting's description of the economy was slightly weakened, it emphasized that monetary policy should promote growth and prices to be at a reasonable level. The probability of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in Q4 cannot be ruled out, but the central bank may still need to observe, and potential policy changes need to be observed in important meetings in mid - to late October [64]. - The exogenous disturbances in the funds market in October mainly come from tax periods and the large - scale maturity of policy tools. As long as the central bank's attitude remains unchanged, the impact of tool maturities is relatively limited. The reduction in government bond supply in October will ease tax - period disturbances. The probability of monetary policy tightening is low. It is expected that the central levels of DR001 and DR007 in October will remain slightly below 1.4% and 1.5%, and whether they can become looser still needs to observe the central unified deployment [66].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in government bond futures indicates a tightening in the bond market, influenced by various economic factors and central bank operations [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.18% [1]. - The interbank market saw major interest rate bonds experiencing narrow fluctuations, with the ultra-long end showing slight weakness [1]. Group 2: Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 255.7 billion, resulting in a net withdrawal of 150.1 billion, maintaining an overall balanced funding situation in the interbank market [1]. - The central bank's liquidity injection in August included a net MLF injection of 300 billion, a net withdrawal of 160.8 billion in pledged supplementary loans (PSL), and a net injection of 300 billion in reverse repos, with no public market bond transactions conducted [1]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. ISM manufacturing index rose slightly from 48 in July to 48.7 in August, but remained below market expectations of 49, marking six consecutive months below the growth threshold [1]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall financial market risk appetite has rebounded recently, putting pressure on the bond market. However, as government bond issuance gradually passes its peak, supply pressure in the bond market is expected to ease [3]. - Geopolitical factors and changes in trade policies present significant uncertainties that could impact the global economic landscape and financial environment, potentially benefiting the bond market due to increased risk aversion [3]. - It is suggested to consider building long positions on dips, while monitoring manufacturing PMIs from China and the U.S., as well as price indicators from the Eurozone [3].

Core Viewpoint - The impact of the Federal Reserve's unexpected tightening and imported inflation pressure on China's monetary policy is significant, with potential for further rate cuts and the introduction of new tools to support economic stability and assist enterprises [1] Group 1: Domestic and External Factors - Domestic inflation is expected to remain moderate, providing room for monetary policy adjustments, while the spillover effects of the Fed's rate hikes have peaked [2] - The overall inflation pressure in China is manageable despite structural price increases in commodities and tight supply-demand conditions in some agricultural products [2] - The focus of monetary policy will remain on stabilizing growth and ensuring adequate liquidity to support the real economy [2] Group 2: Interest Rate Dynamics - The impact of the potential interest rate differential between China and the U.S. is diminishing, and a temporary interest rate inversion will not hinder macroeconomic policy [3] - There is still room for further rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions, contingent on economic performance [4] - The likelihood of a decline in the 5-year LPR is higher than that of the 1-year LPR, as the latter does not show strong necessity for a decrease [5] Group 3: Policy Tools and Measures - There is a need for additional policy tools to address uncertainties, with potential for new structural tools to be introduced [6] - Historical precedents suggest that monetary policy tools can extend beyond traditional measures like RRR cuts and interest rate reductions [7] - The People's Bank of China may consider reintroducing tools like the Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) to provide stable long-term funding for specific sectors [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the excess reserve ratio rose to 1.3%, still at a low level for the end - of - quarter month and lower than expected. The central bank maintained the normalization of capital prices by supporting bank lending. In July, the central bank aimed to keep liquidity relatively loose within the existing framework, with the excess reserve ratio expected to be around 1.2%. In August, the excess reserve ratio is projected to be about 1.1%, remaining at a neutral level in recent years. The probability of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in August is low, but the central bank may still maintain relatively loose liquidity [2][3]. - The fluctuation of the capital market in July was related to the improvement of the equity market sentiment, especially the freezing of funds due to new stock listings on the Beijing Stock Exchange. The capital market in August may continue the tone of July, and attention should be paid to whether DR001 can break through the lower limit of 1.3% at the beginning of the month [2][33][61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Quarter - end Central Bank Claims Did Not Rise Unexpectedly, and the Increase in the Excess Reserve Ratio in June Was Weaker than Seasonal - In June, the excess reserve ratio rose by about 0.3pct to 1.3%, lower than the expected 1.5%, due to the central bank's claims on other depository corporations not rising additionally as expected to offset the previous decline. After the central bank announced the liquidity injection of various tools in May, the difference between the central bank's claims on other depository corporations and high - frequency data decreased, and its follow - up normalization needs attention [6]. - In June, the fiscal deposit decreased by 5722 billion yuan, less than the expected 7400 billion yuan. The expenditure progress of special refinancing bonds was slow, and the repurchase of treasury cash time deposits might have led to an additional increase in government deposits. Other factors such as currency issuance, central bank legal deposit reserves, and foreign exchange funds were close to expectations [8]. - Despite the relatively low excess reserve ratio, the net lending scale of banks continued to rise in June, and the central DR001 rate dropped below 1.4%, indicating that the central bank was normalizing capital prices by supporting bank lending [15]. 3.2. In July, the Central DR001 Rate Was Stable but with Increased Fluctuations, and the Central Bank Maintained Relative Looseness within the Existing Framework - In July, although the supply pressure of government bonds remained high, the general fiscal revenue and expenditure might show an anti - seasonal deficit, and the expenditure of replacement bonds was expected to bring additional government deposit injections. It was estimated that government deposits would increase by about 450 billion yuan, and the consumption of excess reserves would weaken marginally. Credit lending decline might lead to a decrease in bank reserve payments by about 90 billion yuan. Currency issuance might increase by about 30 billion yuan, and foreign exchange funds might continue to withdraw about 50 billion yuan. In the open market, the central bank's claims on other depository corporations might rise by about 260 billion yuan, and the excess reserve ratio was expected to be about 1.2% [15]. - In July, DR001 once exceeded 1.35%, and 1.3% seemed to become the new lower limit. The average DR001 for the whole month did not decline significantly but fluctuated more. The decline in non - bank capital demand led to a decline in DR007 despite the decrease in bank net lending. This might indicate that the central bank had achieved policy normalization and hoped to maintain relatively loose liquidity within the existing framework, resulting in stable but more volatile capital interest rates [27]. - The increased fluctuation of the capital market in late July might be related to the improvement of the equity market sentiment, especially the freezing of funds due to new stock listings on the Beijing Stock Exchange. The freezing and unfreezing of funds on the Beijing Stock Exchange might only impact the inter - bank liquidity under special circumstances [33]. - The cross - month progress of institutions in July was generally slow, but the abundant capital supply ensured the looseness of the capital market at the end of the month [37]. 3.3. In August, Relative Looseness May Still Be Maintained within the Existing Framework, and Attention Should Be Paid to Whether the Central Bank Continues to Relax Controls and Amplify Fluctuations - In August, although the general fiscal deficit might be higher than the same period in previous years, and the expenditure of replacement bonds might still cause additional leakage of government deposits, the net supply of government bonds was also at a high level. It was estimated that government deposits would decrease by about 50 billion yuan. Reserve payments might increase seasonally, currency issuance might increase by about 50 billion yuan, and foreign exchange funds might continue to withdraw about 50 billion yuan. In the open market, the central bank's claims on other depository corporations might decline by about 430 billion yuan, and the excess reserve ratio was expected to be about 1.1% [3][43]. - Since July, the central bank has emphasized the implementation of existing policies. The threshold for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts has increased, and it is not the baseline expectation for August. However, the central bank's concern about bond investment risks has decreased, and it may still tend to maintain relatively loose liquidity within the existing framework in August [3][56]. - In August, the capital market may continue the tone of July. Attention should be paid to whether DR001 can break through the lower limit of 1.3% at the beginning of the month. If so, the central bank may further relax controls on bank lending, increasing the fluctuation of the capital market. Although the exogenous disturbances such as the tax period in August may decrease, the decline in the central DR001 and DR007 rates may be limited [61].

Monetary Policy and Economic Environment - The central bank's "moderately loose" monetary policy is being implemented gradually due to the stabilization of external conditions, following the reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates in May [1] - The central bank is actively injecting liquidity through reverse repos and MLF, creating a comprehensive easing environment [1] - The combination of monetary and fiscal policies has led to a "double easing" situation, with government investment and financial support for consumption being the two main driving forces for domestic demand [1] Structural Monetary Policy Tools - The central bank has highlighted three prominent areas for structural tools: technological innovation, inclusive and consumer finance, and securities market financing [2] - Expansion of re-lending for technological innovation and support for consumer finance has been initiated, with specific amounts allocated for various purposes [2] - The central bank is also promoting the issuance of bonds in sectors like culture, tourism, and education to support consumption [2] Support for Foreign Trade - The central bank supports pilot programs for foreign trade refinancing in Shanghai, indicating a localized approach to structural tools for foreign trade enterprises [3] Real Estate Market Dynamics - Current policies supporting real estate, including PSL, are not significantly impactful, indicating a stabilization rather than expansion in the real estate sector [4] - Data shows a slight decline in real estate loan balances, suggesting limited effectiveness of monetary policy in stimulating housing demand [4] - The financial regulatory authority is working on new financing systems to adapt to the evolving real estate market, which may be crucial for long-term stability [5] Consumer and Inclusive Finance Growth - Despite a contraction in real estate loans, the demand for inclusive and consumer finance remains robust, with significant year-on-year growth in operating loans and consumer loans [5] - The expansion of structural tools has created a policy space exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan, indicating potential for gradual policy release rather than immediate large-scale actions [5] Future Policy Outlook - The combination of total and structural tools will likely become the norm in future policy, with a focus on the role of each depending on the economic context [6] - The urgency for further total policy actions may arise in the fourth quarter, influenced by external conditions and interest rate differentials [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pre - operation of the outright reverse repurchase is conducive to stabilizing the capital expectation, and the cross - half - year liquidity pressure is controllable. Attention should be paid to short - end allocation opportunities [3][5] - The central bank's toolbox has a more reasonable term distribution, and the liquidity tools for each term are relatively complete [4][17] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Outright Reverse Repurchase Operation Pre - operation - On June 6, 2025, the central bank will conduct a 1000 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a 3 - month term to maintain the liquidity of the banking system [2][11] - From April to June 2025, the outright reverse repurchase continued to have a small - scale net withdrawal, and the current balance is around 4.2 trillion. The pre - operation in June is mainly to consider the large - scale maturity of certificates of deposit and the concentrated issuance of government bonds [3][11] - The operation time is advanced, and the arrival rhythm of funds may be accelerated. In the future, the announcement may be released one day in advance, which is consistent with the MLF operation mode, facilitating institutions to arrange liquidity in advance [3][11] - The operation frequency is theoretically once a month. Whether there will be an additional operation in June remains to be seen, or the MLF may be flexibly increased at the end of the month [3][12] 3.2 Take Stock of the Central Bank's Toolbox - The central bank adjusted the "Monetary Policy Tools" section and disclosed the monthly investment of various tools for the first time, increasing a market communication channel [16] - The central bank's toolbox has a more reasonable term distribution, including short - term (7 - day reverse repurchase, overnight reverse repurchase), medium - term (MLF, outright reverse repurchase, and various structural tools), and long - term (reserve requirement ratio cut, treasury bond trading) tools [4][17] - The reverse repurchase tool fluctuates in the range of 0 - 3 trillion; the balance of the outright reverse repurchase and MLF is flexibly adjusted between 4 - 5 trillion; the PSL balance has declined to below 2 trillion; other structural monetary policy tools total about 3.9 trillion, accounting for about 22% of the relevant subject, and there is still about 1 trillion of the subject without a clear corresponding tool [4][21][22] 3.3 Cross - Half - Year Liquidity Pressure is Controllable, Focus on Short - End Allocation Opportunities - After the double cuts, the central bank's investment thinking is relatively positive. In May, after the reserve requirement ratio cut, the MLF, outright reverse repurchase, and 7D reverse repurchase maintained positive investment. The pre - operation of the outright reverse repurchase in June is conducive to stabilizing capital expectations [5][25] - Historically, the central bank has mostly protected the market during the cross - half - year period. It is expected that the risk of a significant tightening of funds is relatively controllable. The DR007 is expected to be in the range of 1.5 - 1.65% [5][31][33] - For short - end varieties, when the yield of 1 - year certificates of deposit of state - owned and joint - stock banks is above 1.7%, their allocation value can be considered. The cost - performance of short - term treasury bonds is relatively high, and attention should be paid to the impact of the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading on the short - end market [6][36][37]