债 券 研 究 2026 年 02 月 28 日 存单走势或制约长债空间 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 联系人 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 债 券 策 略 告 相关研究 - 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com ⚫ 供需均较为友好，支撑存单利率平稳。2026 年以来，尽管资金面面临了一些扰动，包括 税期、跨节等因素，但存单利率走势总体平稳，从供给端和需求端来看，对存单利率都较 为友好。 ➢ 供给端来看，央行投放了较多相对中长期的流动性，银行存单净融资规模明显低于 往年同期。实际上，自 2025 年四季度开始，央行流动性投放力度就明显增强，并 且通过 MLF、买断式逆回购等工具投放了较多相对中长期的流动性，同时恢复了常 态化买债操作，但对银行负债端补充 ...

"综合看，2月央行通过买断式逆回购和MLF操作，累计净投放中期流动性9000亿元。"招联首席经济学 家董希淼说。 中国人民银行在2月25日开展了4095亿元7天期逆回购操作和6000亿元中期借贷便利(MLF)操作，当日有 4000亿元逆回购和3000亿元MLF到期，由此公开市场实现净投放3095亿元。专家表示，面对近期流动 性集中回笼，央行灵活适度加大流动性投放，保持资金面平稳。后续央行仍将继续综合运用公开市场操 作等多种货币政策工具，呵护流动性处于合理充裕水平。 MLF连续第12个月加量续做 在央行2月MLF操作落地后，当月MLF实现净投放3000亿元，为连续第12个月加量续做，加量规模小于 上月的7000亿元。此前央行已在2月4日和2月13日开展8000亿元和10000亿元买断式逆回购，分别实现净 投放1000亿元和5000亿元，超过预期。 在华福证券研究所所长助理、固收首席分析师李一爽看来，尽管2月24日至2月28日期间央行政策工具到 期规模较大，但在政府债净缴款规模下降、2月税期走款规模相对有限、春节假期后现金回流、MLF超 额续做等因素的共同支撑下，预计资金面整体仍将维持平稳。 2月中期流动性净投放 ...

● 本报记者 彭扬 欧阳剑环 中国人民银行在2月25日开展了4095亿元7天期逆回购操作和6000亿元中期借贷便利（MLF）操作，当 日有4000亿元逆回购和3000亿元MLF到期，由此公开市场实现净投放3095亿元。专家表示，面对近期 流动性集中回笼，央行灵活适度加大流动性投放，保持资金面平稳。后续央行仍将继续综合运用公开市 场操作等多种货币政策工具，呵护流动性处于合理充裕水平。 MLF连续第12个月加量续做 在央行2月MLF操作落地后，当月MLF实现净投放3000亿元，为连续第12个月加量续做，加量规模小于 上月的7000亿元。此前央行已在2月4日和2月13日开展8000亿元和10000亿元买断式逆回购，分别实现净 投放1000亿元和5000亿元，超过预期。 在华福证券研究所所长助理、固收首席分析师李一爽看来，尽管2月24日至2月28日期间央行政策工具到 期规模较大，但在政府债净缴款规模下降、2月税期走款规模相对有限、春节假期后现金回流、MLF超 额续做等因素的共同支撑下，预计资金面整体仍将维持平稳。 "综合看，2月央行通过买断式逆回购和MLF操作，累计净投放中期流动性9000亿元。"招联首席经济学 家董 ...

2月10日，从人民银行山西省分行召开的2025年山西省金融统计数据新闻发布会上获悉，2025年，山西 社会融资规模稳定增长，各项存款保持平稳增长，信贷总量合理增长，社会综合融资成本进一步降低， 对重点领域和薄弱环节的支持力度加大，跨境人民币服务水平不断提高，外汇服务质效显著提升，为山 西推动高质量发展、深化全方位转型提供了有力有效的金融支持。 从社会融资规模看 2025年末，全省社会融资规模存量达7万亿元，同比增长7.3%；新增5061.3亿元。其中，投向实体经济 的本外币贷款和政府债券净融资增量合计占全部社融增量的94.4%。 从各项存款看 在信贷投放方面 人民银行山西省分行进一步畅通政策传导机制，综合运用多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，引导金 融机构加大信贷投放。2025年末，全省金融机构本外币各项贷款余额4.9万亿元，较年初增加3364亿 元，同比增长7.4%，快于全国1.2个百分点。 与此同时 人民银行山西省分行发挥再贷款等政策工具激励作用，加大对重点领域和薄弱环节的支持力度。健全货 币政策工具管理机制，规范业务办理流程；发挥支农支小再贷款和再贴现等结构性货币政策工具激励引 导作用，支持金融机构提升 ...

2月10日，记者从人民银行山西省分行召开的2025年山西省金融统计数据新闻发布会上获悉，2025年， 山西社会融资规模稳定增长，各项存款保持平稳增长，信贷总量合理增长，社会综合融资成本进一步降 低，对重点领域和薄弱环节的支持力度加大，跨境人民币服务水平不断提高，外汇服务质效显著提升， 为山西推动高质量发展、深化全方位转型提供了有力有效的金融支持。 从社会融资规模看，2025年末，全省社会融资规模存量达7万亿元，同比增长7.3%；新增5061.3亿元。 其中，投向实体经济的本外币贷款和政府债券净融资增量合计占全部社融增量的94.4%。 从各项存款看，全省金融机构本外币各项存款余额6.5万亿元，同比增长5.7%，较年初增加3474.2亿 元，同比多增211.3亿元。其中，住户存款余额4.4万亿元，同比增长8%，较年初增加3244.8亿元，增量 占全部存款增量的93.4%。 在信贷投放方面，人民银行山西省分行进一步畅通政策传导机制，综合运用多种货币政策工具，保持流 动性充裕，引导金融机构加大信贷投放。2025年末，全省金融机构本外币各项贷款余额4.9万亿元，较 年初增加3364亿元，同比增长7.4%，快于全国1.2 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, Shanxi Province's financial sector is expected to provide strong support for high-quality development and comprehensive transformation through stable growth in social financing, deposits, and reasonable credit expansion, alongside reduced financing costs and improved cross-border financial services [2][3][4] Group 1: Social Financing and Deposits - By the end of 2025, the total social financing scale in Shanxi Province is projected to reach 7 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.3% with an increase of 506.13 billion yuan [2] - The balance of various deposits in financial institutions is expected to be 6.5 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, with a net increase of 347.42 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [2] - Household deposits are anticipated to reach 4.4 trillion yuan, growing by 8% year-on-year, contributing 93.4% to the total deposit increase [2] Group 2: Credit Expansion - By the end of 2025, the balance of loans in financial institutions is projected to be 4.9 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, outpacing the national average by 1.2 percentage points [3] - The People's Bank of Shanxi is expected to enhance support for key sectors and weak links, with a total of 84.4 billion yuan in re-loans issued for agricultural and small enterprises, marking a year-on-year increase of 16 billion yuan [3] - Loans to small and micro enterprises are projected to grow by 10.5% year-on-year, exceeding the overall loan growth rate by 3.1 percentage points [3] Group 3: Cross-Border Financial Services - In 2025, the cross-border RMB settlement volume is expected to reach 65 billion yuan, with RMB settlements accounting for 28.6%, a significant increase of 8.5 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The total cross-border receipts and payments are projected to be 34.34 billion USD, with over 80% attributed to goods trade [4] - Cross-border receipts with countries and regions involved in the Belt and Road Initiative are expected to reach 17.3 billion USD, becoming a crucial support for Shanxi's foreign trade [4]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need to enhance the interest rate adjustment framework and strengthen the guidance of central bank policy rates, aiming to lower the overall financing costs in the economy [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy Framework - The report highlights the importance of improving the interest rate adjustment framework and enhancing the guidance of central bank policy rates [1][2]. - It calls for the refinement of the market-oriented interest rate formation and transmission mechanism, as well as the self-discipline of market interest rate pricing [1][2]. Cost Reduction Measures - The central bank aims to lower bank liability costs to promote a low-level operation of overall social financing costs [1][2]. - There is a plan to systematically expand the coverage of comprehensive financing cost work for corporate loans [1][2]. Structural Monetary Policy Tools - The report emphasizes the dual function of monetary policy tools in terms of both quantity and structure, ensuring effective implementation of various structural monetary policy tools [1][2]. - It stresses the importance of supporting key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and financing for small and micro enterprises [1][2].

Group 1 - The event "Top 10 Financial Books of 2025" was officially announced after two months of competition and expert evaluation, with "Analysis of Chinese Monetary Funds" by Wang Jian being awarded as one of the most popular financial books [1][2][4] - The book systematically analyzes the core mechanisms and operational logic of China's modern monetary system, starting from the history of monetary evolution [4][8] - It elaborates on the operation principles of the "Central Bank-Bank" dual banking system, the derivation mechanisms of base money and broad money, and the application of monetary policy tools such as reserve requirements, re-lending, and open market operations [4][8] Group 2 - The book integrates monetary theory, financial business, and real economic data, covering topics such as liquidity control, payment companies, shadow banking, and digital currency [4][8] - It provides practical case studies demonstrating how to gain insights into economic dynamics from financial data [4][8]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported liquidity injection through various monetary policy tools for January 2026, indicating a proactive approach to manage liquidity in the financial system [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Tools - The Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) saw a net injection of 700 billion yuan, with total lending of 900 billion yuan and repayments of 200 billion yuan [3]. - The Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) had a net injection of 174.4 billion yuan, with no repayments [3]. - Other structural monetary policy tools contributed a net injection of 64.1 billion yuan, with total lending of 391 billion yuan and repayments of 326.9 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Open Market Operations - The 7-day reverse repurchase agreements had a net injection of 167.8 billion yuan, with total lending of 40.327 billion yuan and repayments of 38.649 billion yuan [3]. - Other term reverse repurchase agreements recorded a net injection of 100 billion yuan, with total lending of 20 billion yuan and repayments of 19 billion yuan [3]. - Open market treasury transactions resulted in a net injection of 10 billion yuan, with total lending of 1 billion yuan and no repayments [3].

具体看，一是投放更精准、直达非银的流动性机制以及更窄更有效的利率走廊本身就是央行货币政策体系改革的一部分，并 且之前央行已经进行过预期引导。二是即便消息证实，大概率使DR001更加稳定以及在流动性紧张的窗口期银行与非银的利 差中枢收窄，并不意味着向市场提供流动性。 1月28日，有消息称央行正在探索并可能推出新的货币政策工具，债市情绪偏乐观推动价格上行。但笔者分析认为，新工具的 影响整体偏中性，权益、商品等大类资产在宏观层面的预期共振反而可能成为期债价格上行的推动力。 图为最近一周长债市场走势 国内方面，最新公布的PMI数据整体低于市场预期，结合2025年12月供需出现"劈叉"的情况看，随着市场关注点回归基本面， 宏观预期可能再度为债市提供支撑。从历史经验看，受冬季开工率回落以及工人返乡过节等因素影响，春节前1个月的制造业 PMI数据往往较前值有所回落。通过对历史数据的分析，笔者认为，本次制造业分项数据的回落符合季节性，但非制造业数 据的表现较弱，与此前发布的宏观数据可以相互印证。 而且，随着货币政策工具的精细化，数量型投放工具在政策信号方面的作用逐渐削弱。以国债买卖为例，1月中旬央行在国新 办新闻发布会上提到 ...