王青预计，央行本月将对到期的MLF进行等量或小幅加量续做。总体上看，未来一段时间央行会综合 运用买断式逆回购、MLF两项货币政策工具，持续向市场注入流动性。 （文章来源：证券日报） Wind资讯数据显示，10月份还将有5000亿元6个月期买断式逆回购到期以及7000亿元MLF（中期借贷便 利）到期。回顾央行近期的操作，7月份至9月份，MLF、买断式逆回购单月合计净投放分别为3000亿 元、6000亿元、6000亿元。 中信证券首席经济学家明明在接受《证券日报》记者采访时预计，参考三季度以来央行对于流动性宽松 的支持力度，以及配合后续财政发力的必要性，预计10月份央行MLF以及买断式逆回购等货币政策工 具的操作力度将延续，资金利率和政策利率利差或保持稳定。 为保持银行体系流动性充裕，10月9日，中国人民银行（以下简称"央行"）以固定数量、利率招标、多 重价位中标方式开展了11000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（91天）。由于本月有8000亿元3个 月期买断式逆回购到期，这也就意味着10月份3个月期买断式逆回购净投放3000亿元。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对《证券日报》记者表示，央行通过买断式逆回购向银行 ...

中新社北京10月9日电 (记者 夏宾) 据中国央行公告，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，10月9日，其将 以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展11000亿元人民币买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月(91 天)。 董希淼预计，央行还将通过逆回购、买断式逆回购等多种货币政策工具，加强对中短期市场流动性 的调节；通过MLF操作、降准等措施，继续释放中长期流动性，优化流动性期限结构，进一步满足政 府债券发行、信贷投放增加等对市场流动性的需求，保持金融市场流动性充裕，更好地引导金融机构加 大对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的支持服务。 责任编辑：杨喜亭 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，央行通过买断式逆回购向银行体系注入中期流动性，有助于保 持资金面处于较为稳定的充裕状态。这在助力政府债券发行，引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度的同 时，也将释放数量型政策工具持续加力信号，显示货币政策延续支持性立场。 招联首席研究员董希淼表示，本次3个月期买断式逆回购操作有助于呵护节后资金面平稳，保持流 动性充裕。由于期限是91天，本次操作释放的流动性，还有助于保障元旦前后巿场流动性充裕，维护跨 年金融市场平稳运行。此外，买断式逆回购的利率低于 ...

9月29日，中国人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2886亿元7天期逆回购操作。因当日有2405亿 元7天期逆回购到期，实现净投放481亿元。 专家表示，面对国庆假期、跨季等因素扰动，近期央行综合运用多种货币政策工具，呵护流动性态度明 显。后续央行将继续把握好政策实施的力度和节奏，灵活运用货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕。 对于14天期逆回购操作，华西证券（002926）宏观首席分析师肖金川表示，央行通常在春节和国庆前一 周左右开启类似操作。提前操作的优势在于能帮助央行更合理地安排节后投放到期规模，避免大额资金 集中到期引发市场资金面超预期波动，为假期前后流动性平稳过渡筑牢防线。 专家表示，央行在一周内两度开展14天期逆回购操作，体现了其呵护流动性平稳跨季的意图。"14天期 逆回购操作是季末流动性的重要补充，有利于跨季资金价格回落。"信达证券（601059）首席固收分析 师李一爽说。 资金利率中枢料下移 专家认为，为持续保持流动性处于充裕状态，后续央行或将灵活运用多种货币政策工具。 "展望10月，流动性缺口或和9月不相上下，但考虑到10月央行或重启国债买卖，以及四季度多数情况下 资金利率中枢低于三季度，因此， ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 288.6 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 48.1 billion yuan after 240.5 billion yuan matured on the same day [1] - The PBOC is expected to continue using various monetary policy tools to maintain ample liquidity, especially considering the upcoming National Day holiday and quarter-end factors [1][2] - Recent actions by the PBOC, including significant mid-term liquidity injections, aim to enhance the precision and effectiveness of liquidity management [1] Group 2 - The PBOC's two 14-day reverse repo operations within a week indicate its intention to ensure stable liquidity across the quarter [2] - Experts predict that the central bank may flexibly use multiple monetary policy tools to keep liquidity abundant, with expectations for a decrease in the central rate of funding in October compared to September [2] - The PBOC aims to support consumption and effective investment while maintaining financial market stability and ensuring the RMB exchange rate remains stable [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the importance of maintaining stability in financial markets during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, highlighting the resilience of the foreign exchange, bond, and capital markets [1] Foreign Exchange Market - The PBOC asserts that the market plays a decisive role in the formation of exchange rates, maintaining the basic stability of the RMB despite a volatile external environment [1] - The maturity of market participants and the widespread use of exchange rate hedging tools contribute to the resilience of the foreign exchange market [1] Bond Market - The PBOC monitors and evaluates the bond market from a macro-prudential perspective, enhancing regulatory coordination and timely risk alerts to market participants [1] - The bond default rate remains low, indicating overall stability in market operations [1] Capital Market - The PBOC is exploring monetary policy tools to maintain stability in the capital market, collaborating with the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) to create swap facilities and stock repurchase lending tools [1] - Support for the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. to act as a "stabilization fund" is emphasized, aiming to continuously improve the long-term support mechanisms for the capital market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced a downturn on September 18, with government bond futures closing lower and interbank bond yields rising by 1-2 basis points. The central bank's recent liquidity injections are expected to stabilize the financial environment and support economic recovery [1][5]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed down across the board, with the 30-year main contract falling by 0.17% to 115.620, the 10-year contract down by 0.05% to 108.080, and the 5-year and 2-year contracts also declining slightly [2]. - The interbank yield on major bonds rose slightly, with the 30-year government bond yield increasing by 1.6 basis points to 2.071%, and the 10-year government bond yield rising by 1.45 basis points to 1.7775% [2]. International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 2-year yield increasing by 4.99 basis points to 3.545% and the 10-year yield up by 6.12 basis points to 4.089% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields also saw a general increase, while in the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds from France, Germany, Italy, and Spain experienced slight declines [3]. Primary Market - The Export-Import Bank's 1-year fixed-rate bond had a winning bid rate of 1.3784%, with a total bid-to-cover ratio of 1.78. The China Development Bank's 3-year and 7-year financial bonds had winning yields of 1.7393% and 1.95%, respectively [4]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 487 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 195 billion yuan for the day [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate rising by 3.1 basis points to 1.514% [5]. Institutional Perspectives - Citic Securities noted that expectations for the central bank to resume government bond purchases have increased, providing some support for interest rates amid market adjustments and rising government debt supply pressures [6]. - Long-term views suggest that the core logic is shifting towards the "14th Five-Year Plan" policy orientation, with interest rates expected to remain low to alleviate fiscal pressures [7]. - Huachuang Fixed Income highlighted a liquidity gap of approximately 1.7 trillion yuan in September, indicating a seasonal high level, and anticipates that the central bank will take active measures to stabilize liquidity [7].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a 6-month term on September 15, following a 10,000 billion yuan operation on September 5, indicating a proactive approach to liquidity management [1] - In September, there was a net injection of 300 billion yuan from reverse repos, marking the fourth consecutive month of increased reverse repo operations by the PBOC [1] - The PBOC's reverse repo operations in June to August had net injections of 200 billion yuan each month, followed by 300 billion yuan in September [1] Group 2 - The issuance of government bonds is at a peak in September, with commercial bank interbank certificates maturing at 35 trillion yuan, the second-highest level this year [2] - Analysts expect the PBOC to continue using reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) tools to inject liquidity into the market, especially in response to tightening liquidity conditions [2] - The 600 billion yuan reverse repo on September 15 is seen as effective support during the tax payment period, helping to manage overall liquidity pressure [2]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China Yichun Branch effectively utilizes the re-lending monetary policy tool to support the local financial institutions in providing low-cost funding for the Tonggu Huangjing industry [1][2] - The cumulative re-lending amount to Tonggu Rural Commercial Bank over the past three years is 402 million yuan, with a guidance to keep the average loan interest rate 124 basis points lower than the general loan rate [1][2] - The Huangjing industry in Tonggu County has been recognized for its quality and dual-use characteristics, contributing to local economic growth and rural revitalization [1][2][5] Financial Support Mechanisms - The bank has introduced an innovative "re-lending + bank + grower" model to meet the funding needs of growers, leading to a continuous decline in comprehensive financing costs [2] - A targeted financial support mechanism called "Huangjing Loan" has been implemented, providing loans of 1,200 yuan per mu (approximately 0.067 hectares) with a maximum limit of 3 million yuan, tailored to the growth cycle of Huangjing [3] - As of June 2025, the total amount of "Huangjing Loan" issued to 132 growers exceeds 53 million yuan [3] Local Government Collaboration - The bank enhances communication with local government departments through county financial liaison officers, establishing a new model of "finance + township government + rural revitalization" [4] - Strategic cooperation agreements have been signed with key township governments to support Huangjing industry development, resulting in credit issuance of 380 million yuan to both growers and agricultural cooperatives [4] - The bank has streamlined loan processes for Huangjing-related loans, ensuring that the loan approval process does not exceed three working days [4] Industry Impact - The Huangjing industry has formed a complete industrial chain encompassing breeding, planting, deep processing, product development, and sales [5] - Currently, there are 72 Huangjing planting cooperatives in Tonggu County, covering a total area of 73,000 mu (approximately 4,867 hectares) and producing 3,000 tons of Huangjing annually [5][6] - The industry generates an annual output value of 300 million yuan and creates 7,100 jobs, directly benefiting 1,350 farming households [6]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to soon resume government bond trading operations to stabilize bond prices and enhance the flexibility of monetary policy tools [1][4][5] Group 1: Market Conditions and Expectations - The recent meeting between the Ministry of Finance and the PBOC has heightened expectations for the resumption of government bond trading operations [1] - Analysts suggest that the PBOC's potential resumption of bond trading is influenced by the recent pressure on bond prices and the need to prevent market turmoil similar to that seen in late 2022 [1][3] - The current tightening of the funding environment, coupled with a peak in government bond issuance, is a significant consideration for the PBOC's decision to restart bond trading [7] Group 2: Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC's previous bond trading operations, which began in August of last year, effectively maintained a reasonable yield curve and stabilized market interest rates [2] - Following a pause in bond trading operations in January, the PBOC utilized reverse repos to supplement medium- and long-term funding needs, indicating a shift in monetary policy tools [5][6] - The PBOC is expected to combine various monetary policy tools, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and government bond trading, to ensure liquidity in the financial market [5][7] Group 3: Market Reactions - Recent trends show that institutional investors are buying short-term government bonds in anticipation of the PBOC's resumption of trading, which has reduced downward pressure on bond prices [4] - Large state-owned banks have reportedly accumulated significant amounts of short-term government bonds to meet the anticipated demand following the resumption of trading [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the liquidity situation from July to September 2025, predicting that the September capital market will likely remain relatively loose, similar to August, within the existing policy framework [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 July: Slow Replacement Bond Expenditure and Neutral Excess Reserve Ratio - July's excess reserve ratio dropped by 0.2pct to 1.2%, slightly more than expected but at a neutral level for non - quarter - end months [6]. - Fiscal deposits in July rose by 7648 billion yuan, higher than the expected 4508 billion yuan, indicating a slow expenditure progress of replacement bonds [6]. - The central bank's claims on other depository corporations increased by 2184 billion yuan in July, matching high - frequency monetary policy tools [6]. 3.2 August: Rising Excess Reserve Ratio and New Low in Capital Interest Rate - The scale of the broad fiscal deficit in August may be higher than in previous years, and the expenditure of replacement bonds will reduce government deposits. Government bond net supply decreased significantly compared to last year, with an estimated 3100 - billion - yuan decline in government deposits [13]. - The central bank's claims on other depository corporations are expected to rise by about 4900 billion yuan in August, and the excess reserve ratio is estimated to be about 1.4%, up 0.2pct from July [13]. - In August, capital was generally loose but tightened after the middle of the month. The decline in bank net lending around the tax period was significantly higher than in previous years, which may be related to the stock market and the central bank's "anti - arbitrage" stance, but the impact may be short - term [32]. - The average values of DR001 and DR007 in August reached new lows for the year, possibly due to the decline in non - bank institutional leverage demand [51]. 3.3 September: Stable Capital Interest Rate and Limited Downward Space for Overnight Interest Rate - The broad fiscal deficit in September may still be higher than in previous years, and the expenditure of replacement bonds will continue to reduce government deposits. The net financing of government bonds is expected to decline slightly compared to August, with an estimated 7800 - billion - yuan decline in government deposits [57]. - The central bank's claims on other depository corporations are expected to rise by about 2800 billion yuan in September, and the excess reserve ratio is estimated to be about 1.6%, up 0.2pct from August [57]. - There is no obvious exogenous shock to the capital market in September. The central bank aims to boost inflation, and the probability of policy tightening is low. The capital market in September is likely to remain relatively loose, similar to August [65][69].