证券研究报告 | 2026年03月05日 2026年03月06日 中芯国际（00981.HK） 优于大市 第三大晶圆代工企业，受益本土企业崛起和本地化制造趋势 全球第三大晶圆代工企业，提供 8 英寸和 12 英寸晶圆代工与技术服务。公 司是全球第三大集成电路晶圆代工企业，向全球客户提供 8 英寸和 12 英寸 晶圆代工与技术服务。2025 年收入和净利润分别为 93 亿美元、6.85 亿美元， 预计 2026 年全年收入增幅高于可比同业平均值。公司超过 90%收入来自晶 圆制造代工，2025 年 12 英寸和 8 英寸占比分别为 77%和 23%；从晶圆制造的 下游构成来看，消费电子占比最高，2025 年为 43%，其次智能手机占比 23%， 电脑与平板占比 15%，工业与汽车占比 11%，互联与可穿戴占比 8%。 半导体具有长期成长性，分工合作成就晶圆代工和纯设计企业。中长期看， 全球半导体行业兼具周期性和成长性，每一轮均会超过上一轮的高点，2025 年销售额创年度新高，达 7916 亿美元，WSTS 预计 2026 年将继续保持两位数 增长。安靠、台积电开创封测、晶圆代工外包模式，半导体产业开启分工协 作 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund has increased its stake in Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) from 4.79% to 9.25% as of December 29, 2025, indicating a significant investment in the semiconductor industry [1]. Group 1: Shareholding Changes - The National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund now holds 740,245,419 shares in SMIC, representing 9.25% of the total share capital [1]. - Prior to this increase, the fund held 382,902,023 shares, which accounted for 4.79% of the total share capital [1]. - After the transaction, the fund's A-share holdings amount to 357,343,396 shares, representing 14.03% of SMIC's A-share total and 4.18% of the overall share capital [3]. Group 2: Acquisition Details - SMIC plans to acquire a 49% stake in SMIC North from several entities, including the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, for a total price of 40.601 billion CNY [2][5]. - The acquisition will make SMIC North a wholly-owned subsidiary of SMIC, enhancing the company's asset quality and business synergy [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance - SMIC North reported a revenue of 12.979 billion CNY and a net profit of 1.682 billion CNY for the year 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 12% and 187%, respectively [5]. - The transaction is expected to promote the long-term development of SMIC without altering its main business scope [5]. Group 4: Future Investments - SMIC is set to receive a total of approximately 7.778 billion USD (over 50 billion CNY) in cash injections from new investors, including the National Integrated Circuit Fund Phase III and the Leading Integrated Circuit Fund [5]. - Following the capital increase, SMIC's registered capital will rise significantly from 6.5 billion USD to 10.0773 billion USD [5][6].

Group 1 - The National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund increased its stake in SMIC's H-shares from 4.79% to 9.25% as of December 29, 2025 [1] - The investment amount for SMIC's new capital increase is approximately $77.78 billion, with $35.773 billion allocated to registered capital and $42.007 billion to capital reserves [3][4] - The new shareholders include the National Integrated Circuit Fund Phase III, Taixin Dingji, and the Leading Integrated Circuit Fund, holding 8.361%, 5.545%, and 1.063% respectively [3] Group 2 - SMIC is a leading integrated circuit foundry company in the world, primarily providing 8-inch and 12-inch wafer foundry and technology services [4] - As of January 2, 2026, SMIC's H-shares closed at HKD 75.1, reflecting a 5.11% increase [4][6] - The A-shares of SMIC reported at CNY 122.83 with a decline of 1.96% on December 31, 2025 [6][7]

Group 1 - The National Integrated Circuit Fund increased its stake in SMIC's H-shares from 4.79% to 9.25% as of December 29, 2025 [2] - SMIC announced a new joint venture and capital increase agreement with the National Integrated Circuit Fund, with a total capital increase amounting to $77.78 billion, of which $35.773 billion will be added to registered capital and $42.007 billion to capital reserves [2] - The National Integrated Circuit Fund Phase III will contribute $18.32 billion to the capital increase [4] Group 2 - New shareholders include the National Integrated Circuit Fund Phase III, Taixin Dingji, and the Pioneer Integrated Circuit Fund, holding 8.361%, 5.545%, and 1.063% respectively [3] - The stakes of the first and second phases of the National Integrated Circuit Fund will be diluted due to the capital increase, with Phase I decreasing from 14.562% to 9.392% and Phase II from 23.077% to 14.885% [3] - SMIC is a leading global integrated circuit foundry and a leader in China's integrated circuit manufacturing industry, providing 8-inch and 12-inch wafer foundry and technology services [4] Group 3 - On January 2, 2026, SMIC's H-shares opened higher, closing up 5.11% at HKD 75.1 per share [4] - As of December 31, 2025, SMIC's A-shares were priced at RMB 122.83 per share, with a decline of 1.96% on that day [5]

Core Viewpoint - The National Integrated Circuit Fund has increased its stake in SMIC's H shares from 4.79% to 9.25% as of December 29, 2025, indicating a significant investment in the semiconductor industry [1]. Group 1: Investment Details - The National Integrated Circuit Fund's investment in SMIC Southern amounts to approximately $7.778 billion (around 54.3 billion RMB), with $3.577 billion allocated to registered capital and $4.2007 billion to capital reserves [1]. - New shareholders include the National Integrated Circuit Fund Phase III, Taixin Dingji, and the Pioneer Integrated Circuit Fund, holding 8.361%, 5.545%, and 1.063% respectively [2]. - The dilution of shares for the first and second phases of the National Integrated Circuit Fund results in a decrease from 14.562% to 9.392% and from 23.077% to 14.885% respectively [2]. Group 2: Market Performance - On January 2, 2026, SMIC's H shares opened high and closed up by 5.11%, reaching HKD 75.1 per share [4]. - As of December 31, 2025, SMIC's A shares were reported at RMB 122.83 per share, with a decline of 1.96% on that day [6]. Group 3: Company Overview - SMIC is recognized as a leading integrated circuit foundry globally and a key player in China's semiconductor manufacturing sector, providing 8-inch and 12-inch wafer foundry and technology services [3].

Core Viewpoint - SMIC is progressing with the acquisition of 49% equity in SMIC North from five shareholders for a total transaction price of 40.601 billion RMB, which will make SMIC North a wholly-owned subsidiary of SMIC [1][4] Group 1: Acquisition Details - SMIC plans to issue 547 million shares to acquire the 49% stake in SMIC North, with a share price of 74.20 RMB, representing a discount of over 39% compared to the closing price of 122.50 RMB on December 29 [1][2] - The valuation of SMIC North is assessed at 82.8 billion RMB, with an increase in value of 41 billion RMB, resulting in a premium rate of 98.19% [1][2] Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, SMIC North achieved a revenue of 12.979 billion RMB and a net profit of 1.682 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth of 12% and 187% respectively [4] - The net asset value of SMIC South is reported to be 57.462 billion RMB as of September 30, 2025 [6] Group 3: Capital Increase and Shareholding Structure - SMIC South will receive a total cash injection of approximately 77.78 billion USD, with 35.773 billion USD allocated to registered capital and the remainder to capital reserves [5] - After the capital increase, SMIC's holding in SMIC South will rise from 38.515% to 41.561%, maintaining its position as the largest shareholder [5][6] Group 4: Market Performance - As of December 29, SMIC's A-shares have increased nearly 30% year-to-date, with a market capitalization of 622.6 billion RMB, while its Hong Kong shares have surged nearly 120% [7]

Core Viewpoint - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) is progressing with the acquisition of a 49% stake in SMIC North from five shareholders for a total transaction price of 40.601 billion RMB, which will make SMIC North a wholly-owned subsidiary of SMIC [1][4]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - SMIC plans to issue 547 million shares to acquire the 49% stake in SMIC North, with a share price of 74.20 RMB, representing a discount of over 39% compared to the closing price of 122.50 RMB on December 29 [1][4]. - The valuation of SMIC North, as of the assessment date of August 31, 2025, is 82.9 billion RMB, with an increase in value of 41 billion RMB, resulting in a premium rate of 98.19% [1][2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, SMIC North achieved a revenue of 12.979 billion RMB and a net profit of 1.682 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth of 12% and 187%, respectively [4]. Group 3: Capital Increase for SMIC South - SMIC also announced a capital increase for SMIC South, amounting to 7.778 billion USD (over 50 billion RMB), which will significantly raise its registered capital from 6.5 billion USD to 10.077 billion USD [5][6]. - The new investors include the third phase of the National Integrated Circuit Fund, which will hold an 8.361% stake in SMIC South after the capital increase [5][6]. Group 4: Market Performance - As of December 29, SMIC's A-shares have increased nearly 30% year-to-date, with a market capitalization of 622.6 billion RMB, while its Hong Kong shares have surged nearly 120%, reaching a market cap of 688 billion HKD [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing sustained demand driven by local production needs, with a high capacity utilization rate of 95.8% as of Q3 2025. Revenue from the Chinese market has increased by 11% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting a shift in the supply chain and growing domestic demand [3][4]. - The company anticipates stable capital expenditures for the year, with a projected monthly capacity expansion of 50,000 12-inch wafers. Total capital expenditures for the year are expected to be around $7.5 billion, with 80% allocated for equipment purchases [4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 671 billion, 783 billion, and 901 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 50.58 billion, 62.59 billion, and 75.34 billion yuan [5][7]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 57.8 billion yuan in 2024, growing to 67.1 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 27.72% in 2024 and 16.06% in 2025 [7][12]. - The projected EBITDA for 2025 is approximately 42.1 billion yuan, with a net profit margin expected to improve from 6.4% in 2024 to 7.5% in 2025 [7][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.46 yuan in 2024 to 0.63 yuan in 2025, reflecting the company's growth trajectory [7][12]. Relative Valuation - The company is positioned as a leading integrated circuit foundry in China, with a competitive edge in manufacturing capabilities and service offerings. It aims to enhance its business synergy through strategic acquisitions and maintain a high capacity utilization rate [10][11]. - The report compares the company's price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 5.98 with TSMC's P/B of 9.09, indicating a favorable valuation relative to its peers [11]. Market Position - The company is recognized as a benchmark in the domestic foundry industry, particularly in advanced process technology, which is crucial given the current high demand for high-end chips in the market [11]. - The anticipated growth in artificial intelligence and local production demands is expected to further solidify the company's market position and competitive advantages [11].

Group 1 - The company is a leading integrated circuit wafer foundry, ranking fifth globally and is a leader in China's semiconductor manufacturing industry, offering 8-inch and 12-inch wafer foundry and technology services [1] - The Chinese semiconductor market is expected to grow steadily, with a projected market size of $185.11 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20% and a CAGR of 7.29% from 2014 to 2024 [1] - The wafer foundry industry benefits from the growth trend in the semiconductor sector and the increasing demand for localized production from clients, which accelerates the layout of overseas companies in domestic capacity [1] Group 2 - The company focuses on the research and development of integrated circuit process technology, successfully developing multiple technology nodes for 8-inch and 12-inch wafers, with mass production capabilities across various technology platforms [2] - The company has established long-term collaborations with well-known domestic and international clients, enhancing its industry recognition and supporting capacity and revenue expansion [2] - The company plans to acquire a 49% stake in SMIC North, which is expected to improve asset quality, enhance business synergy, and promote long-term development [2] Group 3 - Revenue projections for the company are $9.26 billion, $10.82 billion, and $12.63 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of $679 million, $895 million, and $1.22 billion for the same years [2] - The corresponding price-to-book ratios are expected to be 3.38, 3.24, and 3.06 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][56]. Core Views - The company is a leading global foundry in integrated circuit manufacturing, ranking fifth in global market share and is a leader in China's semiconductor industry [8]. - The semiconductor market in China is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of $185.11 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20% [33]. - The company has a comprehensive process platform that meets diverse customer needs, benefiting from the localization of chip manufacturing [41]. - Revenue and profit forecasts indicate a steady growth trajectory, with expected revenues of $9.26 billion, $10.82 billion, and $12.63 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [51][52]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was founded in 2000 and has established itself as a major player in the foundry market, providing 8-inch and 12-inch wafer foundry services [12]. - It has a strong management team with extensive industry experience and no single controlling shareholder [21][24]. Market Dynamics - The Chinese semiconductor market is experiencing robust growth, driven by local production demands and geopolitical factors that favor domestic foundries [34]. - The foundry industry has high entry barriers due to significant capital requirements, leading to a concentrated market structure [38]. Financial Performance - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.53% from 2018 to 2024 [26]. - The first half of 2025 saw a revenue increase of 22.04% year-on-year, indicating a return to profitability [26]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of $9.26 billion in 2025, with a net profit of $679 million, reflecting a profit margin improvement [51][54]. - The projected gross margins for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 21.17%, 23.31%, and 26.14% respectively, indicating a positive trend in profitability [52]. Competitive Position - The company maintains a diverse customer base across various sectors, including telecommunications and consumer electronics, which supports its revenue expansion [43]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, with a current monthly capacity of 991,300 equivalent 8-inch wafers [46].