Core Insights - Airbus projects a 45% increase in the global freighter fleet over the next 20 years, reaching a total of 3,420 aircraft, highlighting the growing reliance on air cargo in global supply chains, especially post-pandemic [2] - The forecast includes 815 existing freighters and 2,605 new freighters, with 1,530 aircraft replacing aging models and 1,075 aircraft for pure capacity growth [2] - A significant trend is the conversion of passenger aircraft to freighters, with 1,670 of the new freighters (approximately 64%) coming from passenger-to-freighter (P2F) conversions, indicating their economic and flexible advantages [2] Market Dynamics - Global GDP and trade are expected to grow steadily, with air cargo volume projected to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.3%, outpacing the 2.7% CAGR of global trade [3] - Air cargo is recognized as a "rigid demand" supporting economies, connecting remote communities, and facilitating critical supplies, which underpins its growth beyond traditional trade rates [3] - The replacement of aging freighters with new, efficient models like the A350F and P2F conversions from A320/A321 and A330 will be driven by fuel efficiency and environmental considerations [3] Geographic Shifts - The report indicates a significant diversification in global trade routes and air logistics, with emerging industrial centers in the Asia-Pacific region, such as Vietnam and Indonesia, reshaping the geographic landscape of air cargo [5] - Approximately 1,770 of the 2,605 new freighters will be concentrated in two major markets, reinforcing the importance of the Asia-Pacific and North American regions as key growth areas for air cargo [5] - Airbus's earlier forecast indicated a need for about 43,420 new passenger and freighter aircraft by 2044, reaffirming the resilience and long-term growth potential of air cargo as a critical infrastructure for the global economy [5]