Core Insights - Airbus projects a 45% increase in the global freighter fleet over the next 20 years, reaching a total of 3,420 aircraft, highlighting the growing reliance on air cargo in global supply chains, especially post-pandemic [2] - The forecast includes 815 existing freighters and 2,605 new freighters, with 1,530 aircraft replacing aging models and 1,075 aircraft for pure capacity growth [2] - A significant trend is the conversion of passenger aircraft to freighters, with 1,670 of the new freighters (approximately 64%) coming from passenger-to-freighter (P2F) conversions, indicating their economic and flexible advantages [2] Market Dynamics - Global GDP and trade are expected to grow steadily, with air cargo volume projected to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.3%, outpacing the 2.7% CAGR of global trade [3] - Air cargo is recognized as a "rigid demand" supporting economies, connecting remote communities, and facilitating critical supplies, which underpins its growth beyond traditional trade rates [3] - The replacement of aging freighters with new, efficient models like the A350F and P2F conversions from A320/A321 and A330 will be driven by fuel efficiency and environmental considerations [3] Geographic Shifts - The report indicates a significant diversification in global trade routes and air logistics, with emerging industrial centers in the Asia-Pacific region, such as Vietnam and Indonesia, reshaping the geographic landscape of air cargo [5] - Approximately 1,770 of the 2,605 new freighters will be concentrated in two major markets, reinforcing the importance of the Asia-Pacific and North American regions as key growth areas for air cargo [5] - Airbus's earlier forecast indicated a need for about 43,420 new passenger and freighter aircraft by 2044, reaffirming the resilience and long-term growth potential of air cargo as a critical infrastructure for the global economy [5]

Core Insights - The Chinese air cargo industry is experiencing significant growth driven by policies aimed at enhancing international air cargo capabilities, ensuring supply chain stability, and reducing logistics costs [2] - The performance of air cargo companies has outpaced passenger transport, with notable increases in fleet size and route networks [2][3] Industry Performance - In the first half of 2025, China's air cargo transport volume reached 4.784 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, with international routes showing a remarkable growth of 23.4% [4] - The total number of international cargo routes increased by 58.1% year-on-year, with 117 new routes added, primarily in Asia and Europe [6] Company Developments - China International Cargo Airlines (China Cargo) reported a revenue of 10.935 billion yuan, up 21.92%, and a net profit of 1.240 billion yuan, up 86.15% in the first half of 2025 [3] - SF Airlines, under SF Express, has expanded its fleet to 90 aircraft and launched a new international route connecting Ezhou, Miami, and Shenzhen [5] Fleet Expansion - The demand for air cargo has led to an increase in the number of cargo aircraft, with companies like JD Airlines and SF Airlines actively expanding their fleets and networks [7][8] - The introduction of wide-body freighters, such as the Boeing 777F, is becoming more common among Chinese airlines, enhancing long-haul cargo capabilities [4][9] Aircraft Modification and Manufacturing - The trend of converting retired passenger aircraft into freighters is prevalent, with companies like Shandong Airlines leading in the modification of Boeing 737-800BCF models [8] - Airbus is also expanding its presence in the cargo market by offering conversion services for its A330 and A320 series aircraft in China [9][10]

Core Insights - The delivery of the fifth Boeing 737-800 converted freighter by Shandong Airlines Group marks a significant expansion of its cargo fleet and is also the 50th of its kind completed by Boeing in China [1][2] - Since the introduction of its first converted freighter in 2022, Shandong Airlines has seen continuous growth in its cargo business, with a projected total cargo transport of 22,000 tons by the end of 2024 [1] Group 1 - The current fleet of Shandong Airlines consists of five freighters, with three 737-800BCF aircraft operating on nine international routes, establishing a "Golden Triangle" air cargo network covering Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, and Central Asia [1][2] - The company’s cargo operations are supported by a strategic hub network with Jinan and Qingdao as key nodes for Northeast Asia, Shenzhen for Southeast Asia, and Urumqi for Central Asia [1] - The conversion of passenger aircraft to freighters allows for a rapid enhancement of air cargo capacity, addressing the growing global demand for high-quality "passenger-to-freighter" services [2] Group 2 - Shandong Taikoo Aircraft Engineering Company (STAECO) has upgraded its facilities to support the growing demand, with a new site covering 169,000 square meters and equipped with modern maintenance and conversion lines [2] - Since the launch of its first Boeing passenger-to-freighter project in 2018, STAECO has become a key base for the Boeing 737-800 conversion program, providing 60% of the production capacity for this model [2] - STAECO has delivered a total of 113 converted freighters to both domestic and international clients, including major companies like SF Express, China Post, and JD.com [2]