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东兴证券晨报-20250917
Dongxing Securities· 2025-09-17 09:28
Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of price competition on the profitability of the company, with a significant decline in net profit in Q2 2025 compared to the previous year [6][7] - The company has adjusted its annual business volume guidance downwards due to a new economic and competitive landscape, indicating a focus on quality over quantity [6][9] - The report projects a gradual recovery in profitability in the second half of 2025 as the competitive environment stabilizes [8][9] Company Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a business volume of 9.847 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, but its market share decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 19.5% [6] - The adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 was 2.053 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 26.8% [6] - The average revenue per package decreased from 1.24 yuan to 1.18 yuan, primarily due to increased competitive pricing pressures [7][8] Cost Structure - The company's core cost per package increased by 8.6% year-on-year to 0.89 yuan, with transportation costs decreasing slightly while other costs rose significantly [7][8] - The report notes that the increase in costs is largely attributed to a higher proportion of key account (KA) customers, which also contributed to a slight increase in revenue per package [8] Future Outlook - The company expects a recovery in profitability in the second half of 2025 as it shifts its strategic focus to quality and adjusts its incentive structures [8][9] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 8.85 billion, 10.22 billion, and 11.53 billion yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 13.0X, 11.2X, and 10.0X [9]