国家统计局数据显示，今年1至7月份，民间项目投资（扣除房地产开发民间投资）增长3.9%，展现出 较强韧性。分行业看，住宿和餐饮业民间投资增长19.6%，基础设施民间投资增长8.8%，文化、体育和 娱乐业民间投资增长8.1%，制造业民间投资增长5.0%，投资结构分化明显。 接下来，还需进一步破除市场壁垒、优化营商环境，以全国统一大市场建设降低制度成本，推动建立高 效良性的民间投资工作机制，为民营企业在政策上解惑、环境上解压、发展上解忧。多措并举激发民间 投资活力，才能让民间资本愿投、敢投、会投，从而更好赋能经济高质量发展。（中国经济网评论员 邓浩） 目前，今年"两重"建设项目清单8000亿元已全部下达完毕，中央预算内投资7350亿元已基本下达完毕。 重点项目建设的有序推进，为民间投资平稳增长起到了支撑作用。同时还要看到，作为我国消费升级的 一个主要发展方向，服务消费是未来消费需求增长最主要的动力来源。消费和投资，是内在关联且相互 促进的整体。培育服务消费新的增长点，离不开对相关产业和消费场景的投资。这样的发展趋势也体现 在相关领域民间投资的增长上。 日前召开的中央政治局会议强调，要有效释放内需潜力。会议提出，高 ...

7月以来，各行各业掀起一轮整治"内卷式"竞争浪潮。在国家政策与有关部门牵头指引下，部分工业品 价格初步改善，但对总体价格水平的拉动有限。行业间"反内卷"措施执行进度的分化与产能出清程度的 差异，阻滞了产业链价格传导。 8月以来，部分工业品期货价格震荡回落，市场情绪逐渐降温。整治"内卷式"竞争仍有待刚性产能约束 压缩供给，以及更多提振终端需求的政策落地见效。 期货带动现货 部分工业品价格上涨 受整治"内卷式"竞争预期升温影响，7月以来焦煤、多晶硅、碳酸锂等工业品期货主力合约涨幅显著； 南华综合指数自7月以来连续四周环比上涨。从现货价格看，截至8月22日，螺纹钢、热卷等钢铁行业相 关产品现价，以及碳酸锂、多晶硅等新能源行业相关产品现价均明显高于7月初。 光伏行业是本轮整治"内卷式"竞争的重点行业。据中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会（以下简称"硅业分 会"）介绍，多晶硅现货价格从年初至6月底累计跌幅15.3%；工业硅综合现货价格从年初至6月底累计 跌幅25.3%。而7月在国家"反内卷"政策引导下，多晶硅和工业硅现货价格分别较年初上涨36.9%和 7.26%。 对7月以来产品价格回暖成因，硅业分会分析，工业硅和多晶硅期货 ...

8月18日，国务院总理李强主持召开国务院第九次全体会议，深入学习贯彻习近平总书记关于当前经济形势和经济 工作的重要讲话精神，强调要切实把思想和行动统一到党中央对形势的科学判断和决策部署上来，巩固拓展经济 回升向好势头，努力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务。新华社记者 饶爱民 摄 李强主持召开国务院第九次全体会议强调 巩固拓展经济回升向好势头 努力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务 国务院总理李强主持召开国务院第九次全体会议，深入学习贯彻习近平总书记关于当前经济形势和经济工作的重 要讲话精神，强调要切实把思想和行动统一到党中央对形势的科学判断和决策部署上来，巩固拓展经济回升向好 势头，努力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务。 李强指出，今年以来，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，各方面共同奋斗、克服困难，我国经济运行 稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效。要坚持全面、辩证地把握经济形势，既看到来之不易的发展成绩，看到我国 经济所具有的强大韧性和活力，进一步坚定信心，又看到经济运行中面临的风险挑战，看到外部环境的严峻复 杂，始终保持冷静清醒，积极应对各种不确定性，下大力气抓好确定的事，把党中央决策部署落实到位，用实实 在在的行动 ...

8月22日，国务院总理李强主持召开国务院常务会议，听取实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策情况汇报；研 究释放体育消费潜力进一步推进体育产业高质量发展的意见；审议通过《"三北"工程总体规划》；部署开展海洋渔船 安全生产专项整治工作。 会议指出，大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策（下称"两新"政策），在稳投资、扩消费、促转型、惠民生等方面取 得明显成效。要在对政策实施情况进行认真总结评估的基础上，加强统筹协调，完善实施机制，更好发挥对扩大内需的 推动作用。要严厉打击骗补套补行为。要进一步强化财税金融等政策支持。 会议指出，发展体育产业和体育消费是落实扩大内需战略的重要内容。要增加体育产品供给，丰富体育赛事活动，推动 体育用品升级。要激发体育消费需求，拓展体育消费场景，鼓励各地举办体育消费活动。 严厉打击骗补套补行为 本次会议听取实施"两新"政策情况汇报。会议指出，要严厉打击骗补套补行为，确保补贴资金用到实处、见到实效。 近期，北京、湖南、海南等多地公布的2024年度预算执行和其他财政收支的审计工作报告显示，部分商品存在"先涨后 补"、捆绑销售等套补行为，部分人员涉嫌骗取财政补贴。例如，海南省在"两重""两新" ...

Core Insights - The service consumption market is characterized by its reliance on human factors and experiential value, indicating a larger market potential compared to goods consumption [2][3] - The summer tourism market has shown significant growth, with box office revenues surpassing 10 billion yuan and an estimated 9.53 billion passenger trips by rail, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior towards higher quality services [2] Group 1: Service Consumption Trends - There is a transition in consumer demand from basic needs to a focus on quality, with service consumption expected to account for 46.1% of per capita consumption expenditure by 2024, contributing 63% to the growth of overall consumption [2] - Retail sales in sectors related to cultural and spiritual needs, such as travel consulting and leisure services, have maintained double-digit growth from January to July this year [2] Group 2: Structural Challenges - The development of service consumption faces structural bottlenecks, including the need for improved quality and efficiency in supply, as well as a lack of depth in experiential products in culture, sports, and tourism [3] - Issues such as low standardization, a shortage of professional talent, and low brand trust hinder the full release of consumer willingness [3] Group 3: Strategies for Improvement - Enhancing supply quality is fundamental, with a focus on professionalization, standardization, and brand development in the service industry, supported by policies that encourage innovation and resource allocation towards service capability enhancement [4] - Breaking down market barriers is crucial, requiring reforms to eliminate restrictions on new service models and consumption scenarios, particularly in high-public-interest sectors like healthcare and education [4] Group 4: Consumer Environment Optimization - Optimizing the consumer environment is essential for ensuring market regulation and consumer rights protection, including the establishment of a service standard system and the regulation of prepayment consumption models [5] - Recent government meetings have emphasized the importance of cultivating new growth points in service consumption, indicating a policy focus on enhancing service consumption potential [5]

Market Overview - The three major indices experienced pressure in the early session but rebounded strongly in the afternoon, closing higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index all reaching new highs for the year [1] - Although the trading volume decreased by approximately 180.1 billion compared to the previous trading day, it has remained above 2 trillion for six consecutive days, indicating high market participation and capital activity [1] Government Policy Signals - The State Council's ninth plenary meeting emphasized the need to continuously stimulate consumer potential, systematically remove restrictive measures in the consumption sector, and accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption and new consumption [2] - A collaboration between Jiugui Liquor and Pang Donglai has seen strong sales, leading to a surge in the stock price [2] Industry Performance - Some white liquor companies reported disappointing performance in the first half of the year, largely due to the ongoing impact of the "drinking ban" and the struggles faced by the catering industry [3] - However, these negative factors have already been reflected in the stock prices of the white liquor sector [4] Consumer Trends - With the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day approaching, capital is likely to continue betting on consumption-promoting policies and positioning in large consumer stocks, including white liquor [5] - It is noted that the current consumer market trend may still represent the latter stage of improvement in the real economy's fundamentals [6] Market Dynamics - The previous market rally followed a specific path of sector rotation, starting with large financials, moving through popular and restructuring themes, and culminating in a focus on technology concepts and low-priced stocks [7] - Historical patterns are not expected to repeat exactly, and market volatility is a normal occurrence [8] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on market leaders such as semiconductor chips and AI applications while avoiding chasing prices and instead looking for opportunities during market fluctuations [9] - For conservative investors, sectors that have lagged in this rally but have earnings support or high dividend characteristics, such as large consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, and utilities, should be considered for balanced allocation [9]

Core Viewpoint - The development of service consumption is essential for enhancing people's well-being and is a crucial strategy for boosting overall consumption in China. The service sector's contribution to economic growth is significant, with a steady increase in its share of the national economy. From 2020 to 2024, per capita service consumption expenditure in China is expected to grow at an annual rate of 9.6% [1][2]. Group 1: Growth Potential of Service Consumption - There is substantial growth potential in service consumption in China, as indicated by the shift in consumer behavior from goods to services, similar to trends observed in developed economies like the U.S. and Japan. In 2024, the share of per capita service consumption expenditure in China is projected to be 46% [2][3]. - The service sector's retail sales increased by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, outpacing the growth rate of goods retail sales. The value added by the service industry grew by 5.5%, contributing 60.2% to economic growth [2][3]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Service consumption encompasses various sectors, including dining, accommodation, childcare, and entertainment, with increasing demand in areas like elderly care and childcare. For instance, from January to July, retail sales in tourism, transportation, and leisure services showed double-digit growth [3][4]. - Despite strong demand, there are significant supply shortages in service consumption, particularly in areas like elderly care and childcare, where the enrollment rate for children under three is below 10%, compared to an OECD average of about 36% [4][5]. Group 3: Policy Measures to Stimulate Consumption - Recent policy initiatives, including the establishment of service consumption and elderly care re-loan tools by the People's Bank of China, aim to enhance consumer spending and stabilize domestic demand. A series of financial support measures have been introduced to promote consumption [5][6]. - The implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidies and service industry loan interest subsidies is designed to lower the cost of consumer credit, thereby encouraging residents to utilize financial leverage to increase consumption [6][7]. Group 4: Financial Policy Directions - Future financial policies should focus on maintaining liquidity and reducing financing costs to create a favorable environment for consumption. This includes enhancing structural monetary policy tools and increasing financial support for key service consumption sectors [7]. - Expanding financing channels and reinforcing policy coordination among fiscal, employment, and social security policies are essential to improve residents' consumption capacity and willingness [7].

今年以来，面对外部环境变化，我国把发展的立足点更多放在扩大内需、做强国内大循环上，一系列政 策举措有效激发了内需潜力。专家认为，下半年扩内需等政策效果将继续显现，为经济平稳健康发展提 供支撑。 更加注重补上消费短板 今年上半年，内需对GDP增长的贡献率达到68.8%，其中最终消费支出贡献率为52%，继续发挥增长主 动力作用。 加力扩围实施消费品以旧换新政策，有效激发了消费活力。今年第三批690亿元支持消费品以旧换新的 超长期特别国债资金已下达完毕。在以旧换新政策带动下，7月份，限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材 类、文化办公用品类、家具类和通讯器材类商品零售额同比分别增长28.7%、13.8%、20.6%、14.9%， 均明显快于商品零售额增速。 中央政治局日前召开会议强调，要有效释放内需潜力。近日召开的国务院第九次全体会议提出，持续激 发消费潜力，加力扩大有效投资，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，不断释放超大规模市场红利。 中央政治局会议提出，"在扩大商品消费的同时，培育服务消费新的增长点""在保障改善民生中扩大消 费需求"。中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬认为，这预示着促消费的重点将会转向服务消费以及改善民 生方面， ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the monetary policy of the central bank, focusing on credit structure and financial stability within the broader economic context. Core Insights and Arguments - The central bank's monetary policy has shifted from "structural wide credit" to "structural stable credit," emphasizing the importance of stabilizing credit support rather than merely increasing credit volume [3][4] - The report highlights the need to optimize the credit structure, particularly focusing on technological innovation and expanding consumption, with a special emphasis on the growth potential of service consumption [4][6] - There is a renewed emphasis on preventing fund diversion and improving fund utilization efficiency, indicating a heightened concern for financial stability [6][8] - The central bank has reintroduced the concept of financial stability re-lending after five years, signaling a strong awareness of potential risks in the current economic environment [6][7] - The interest rate policy remains focused on enhancing execution supervision and conducting on-site evaluations of financial institutions to improve their pricing capabilities, rather than relying on interest rate cuts [9][10] Important but Overlooked Content - The central bank's stricter stance on exchange rates includes three firm commitments to correct pro-cyclical market behaviors, address market disruptions, and prevent excessive currency depreciation [10] - The report indicates a shift in focus from capital markets to the real economy, with less emphasis on structural tools for the capital market, reflecting a broader strategic adjustment [12][13] - The current monetary policy is expected to have minimal direct impact on the stock market due to ample liquidity, while the bond market may experience increased volatility due to the transition from structural wide credit to structural stable credit [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic trade ore remains stable; the supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has recovered, but the domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, and the raw materials are in a tight situation [3]. - In July, the production rhythm of leading enterprises remained stable, the output of a few smelters increased, and new production capacity is still planned to be put into operation, driving a slight increase in the overall refined nickel output [3]. - On the demand side, the profits of stainless - steel plants have improved, and the plants have increased production; the production and sales of new - energy vehicles continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, the nickel price has declined, but the downstream procurement demand is still weak, the spot premium has slightly decreased, and the domestic inventory has increased; the overseas LME inventory has increased [3]. - Technically, the price has fallen with an increase in positions, indicating a divergence between long and short positions. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in a range. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being or conduct range - bound operations, with a reference range of 119,500 - 124,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 120,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the price difference between the September - October contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 120 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,170 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 55,967 lots, a decrease of 6,540 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 30,724 lots, a decrease of 200 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 210,414 tons, a decrease of 1,248 tons [3]. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 26,962 tons, an increase of 768 tons; the total cancelled warrants of LME nickel is 11,094 tons, a decrease of 1,248 tons [3]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 22,841 tons, a decrease of 210 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 121,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 121,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main NI contract is 1,320 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 194.65 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.23 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 434.66 million tons, an increase of 41.94 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,095.16 million tons, an increase of 61.82 million tons [3]. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 65.84 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.57 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of nickel iron is 22,200 metal tons, a decrease of 400 metal tons [3]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel iron is 1.0414 billion tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.6981 billion tons, a decrease of 459,000 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 582,700 tons, a decrease of 10,200 tons [3].