大消费 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 3 月 2 日 [T分析师able_A：uthor 郑彬彬] 执业证书号：S1030523030001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：zhengbb@csco.com.cn 分析师：罗鹏 执业证书号：S1030523040001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：luopeng@csco.com.cn 分析师：赵靖 执业证书号：S1030525070001 电话：0755-23602217 [行业Table_S 观点：ummary ] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 4) 风险提示：经济复苏、政策效果不及预期、行业竞争加剧等。 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Report] 邮箱：zhaojing2@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 26 年春节文旅市场向好 [Table_ReportType] 大消费行业周报（2 月第 4 周） [Table_BaseData] 计算机 2019 年 Q3 综合毛利率（%） 9.7 综合净利率（%） 6.9 行业 ROE ...

执业证书号：S1030523030001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：zhengbb@csco.com.cn 分析师：罗鹏 执业证书号：S1030523040001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：luopeng@csco.com.cn 分析师：赵靖 大消费 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 3 月 2 日 [T分析师able_A：uthor 郑彬彬] 执业证书号：S1030525070001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：zhaojing2@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 26 年春节文旅市场向好 [Table_ReportType] 大消费行业周报（2 月第 4 周） [行业Table_S 观点：ummary ] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 4) 风险提示：经济复苏、政策效果不及预期、行业竞争加剧等。 [Table_BaseData] [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Report] 计算机 2019 年 Q3 综合毛利率（%） 9.7 综合净利率（%） 6.9 行业 ROE ...

重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 代码 | 股价（元） 2025E | | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 评级 | | 锦江酒店 | 600754.SH | 28.28 | 0.85 | 1.09 | 1.21 | 33.14 | 25.97 | 23.34 | 1.98 | 推荐 | | 首旅酒店 | 600258.SH | 17.46 | 0.80 | 0.88 | 0.96 | 21.93 | 19.89 | 18.19 | 1.67 | 推荐 | | 古茗 | 01364.HK | 28.48 | 1.05 | 1.10 | 1.33 | 24.10 | 22.83 | 19.00 | 14.24 | 推荐 | | 中国中免 | 601888.SH | 80.58 | 1.97 | 2.42 | 2.83 ...

2026 年作为 "十五五" 开局之年，其春节消费市场展现出消费从功能满足向 "意义与价值" 驱动转型的鲜明特征，理性与感性、悦己与顾家、怀旧与追新在 此实现融合，全国消费相关行业日均销售收入同比增长 13.7%，文旅、餐饮、智能绿色消费等多领域迎来爆发，同时跨区域人员流动量超 28 亿人次，超长 假期大幅提振消费景气度。餐饮、零售、旅游相关收入分别实现 31.2%、39.3%、39.6% 的同比增长，以旧换新政策惠及 2755.6 万人次，智能、绿色、服务 类消费成为市场新增长点。 报告梳理出 2026 春节消费 12 大核心趋势，折射出消费市场的深层变迁：新团圆经济双向奔赴，反向团圆与返乡游同步爆发，下沉市场成为复合型消费场 景；Z 世代掌握家庭消费主导权，成为春节主理人，个性化、创意化融入传统节日消费；面子消费退潮，"心价比" 成为关键，消费者更注重消费的情绪疗愈 与情感满足；本地文化崛起成为消费新引擎，非遗体验、土特产 IP 化深受青睐；以旧换新政策推动品质觉醒，三四线及县域市场换新需求增速超一线城 市，智能绿色产品成首选；服务消费全面井喷，"花钱买时间" 成主流，上门经济、宠物托管等服务需求激增；即 ...

国信证券主要观点如下： 行情回顾：服务消费政策预期+春节消费旺季，餐酒龙头持续表现 2026年1月，A/H/美股连锁酒店餐饮、外卖平台涨幅前5名个股为九毛九、锅圈、阿里巴巴-W、君亭酒 店、古茗。其中九毛九领涨，公司最新公告显示核心品牌太二25Q4同店降幅继续收窄至-3%，怂火锅& 九毛九品牌同店降幅则相对稳健；锅圈发布业绩预告业绩维持强劲增长，预计2025年核心经营利润约 4.5-4.7亿元，同增44.8-51.2%；阿里巴巴-W预计受益于千问模型生态融合及芯片业务进展；其次君亭酒 店、古茗也涨幅良好。2026年2月至今，春节旺季催化，同店收入/RevPAR存强修复动能龙头如百胜中 国、华住集团-S、亚朵、海底捞、古茗等表现强势。 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，2026年1月以来，在服务消费政策预期与春节旺季双重催化 下，餐酒龙头表现强势。茶饮、快餐等细分赛道龙头维持韧性增长，行业景气度持续回暖。维持酒店餐 饮行业"优于大市"评级。建议重视2026年服务消费元年，看好政策预期与基本面共振下的服务消费龙 头。 板块动态：2025年12月单月餐饮收入同增2.2%，限额以上餐饮单位收入1463.2亿元， ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed slight recovery after several days of adjustment, with the consumption sector experiencing narrow fluctuations, particularly the Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption ETF, which saw a minor increase [1] - Notable gainers in the holdings included Lao Pu Gold, Mao Ge Ping, Mengniu Dairy, and Samsonite, while Unification Enterprise China, Conant Optical, and Smoore International faced declines [1] - The Spring Festival travel period in 2026 recorded a historic high of 9.5 billion person-times of cross-regional movement, with over 2.8 billion person-times during the 9-day holiday, marking a 21% increase from 2025 [1] Group 2 - The service industry consumption is a key focus of policy support, with the general travel sector expected to continue benefiting from this trend [1] - The K-shaped recovery trend remains anticipated, with low base effects for mid-tier consumption leaders becoming evident, and overseas demand transitioning from pilot exploration to large-scale replication [1] - Supply-side innovations are expected to enhance emotional value premiums, supported by policy guidance, while AI empowerment is anticipated to improve efficiency and cost optimization [1] Group 3 - Various ETFs related to consumption sectors are being monitored for recovery opportunities, including the Food and Beverage ETF, which tracks a detailed food index covering leading companies in alcohol, dairy, condiments, beer, and soft drinks [2] - The Consumption ETF Huaxia tracks the main consumption industry index, providing balanced coverage across various consumption sub-sectors [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption ETF Huaxia encompasses nearly all areas of Hong Kong's consumption sector, while the Tourism ETF focuses on service consumption, excluding goods consumption, covering sectors like duty-free, airlines, and hotel dining [2]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the synergy between policy support and seasonal demand, recommending investment in high-quality leading companies in the hotel and restaurant sectors [2][3] - The performance of leading restaurant and hotel stocks has been strong, driven by service consumption policy expectations and the Spring Festival consumption peak [11][12] Market Review - In January 2026, leading stocks in the A/H/U.S. markets for chain hotels and restaurants saw significant gains, with notable performers including Jiumaojiu, Guoquan, Alibaba-W, Junting Hotel, and Guming [11][12] - Jiumaojiu led the gains, with its core brand Taier showing a continued narrowing of same-store sales decline to -3% in Q4 2025, while Guoquan forecasted a robust growth in core operating profit for 2025, expected to be around 450-470 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 44.8-51.2% [2][11] Restaurant and Hotel Tracking - In December 2025, the overall restaurant revenue increased by 2.2% year-on-year, while revenue from above-limit restaurants decreased by 1.1% [14] - The CPI in December 2025 rose by 0.8% year-on-year, with service CPI increasing by 0.6%, indicating resilient growth [14] - For January 2026, the hotel industry saw a RevPAR increase of 30.7% year-on-year during the Spring Festival week, with occupancy rates (OCC) up by 8.1% and average daily rates (ADR) up by 13.5% [21] Restaurant Sector Insights - The tea beverage sector is expected to maintain single-digit year-on-year growth in January, supported by platform subsidies and product innovations [20] - The hot pot sector, particularly Haidilao, experienced a slight decline in same-store sales in January but is projected to see a recovery during the Spring Festival with an expected increase of over 5% [20] - Fast food chains like KFC and Pizza Hut are anticipated to maintain resilient growth, with expected single-digit increases in same-store sales [20] Hotel Sector Insights - The hotel sector's RevPAR showed resilient growth in January 2026, driven primarily by improvements in ADR, while occupancy rates remained stable [21][22] - Economic and mid-range hotels are performing similarly to the overall market, while high-end hotels are outperforming, although luxury hotels are showing weaker data [21][22] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "outperform" rating, suggesting a focus on leading service consumption companies in 2026, with key recommendations including Haidilao, Huazhu Group-S, Guming, Guoquan, Yum China, Atour, and others [3][12]

Core Insights - The article highlights the robust performance of the consumer market during the Spring Festival, showcasing a diverse and resilient new consumption landscape across various regions and sectors [1] Group 1: Data Highlights - Cultural and tourism consumption emerged as the biggest highlight, with 596 million domestic trips taken during the 9-day holiday, an increase of 95 million trips compared to 2025, and total spending reaching 803.48 billion yuan, up by 126.48 billion yuan [2] - Retail and dining sectors also showed strong performance, with average daily sales of key retail and dining enterprises increasing by 5.7% compared to 2025, and foot traffic and sales in 78 monitored pedestrian streets rising by 6.7% and 7.5% respectively [2] - Smart and quality consumption gained traction, with sales of smart glasses, intelligent robots, and organic food increasing by 47.3%, 32.7%, and 26.5% respectively [2] Group 2: Structural Changes - There is a notable shift towards quality consumption, with high-quality products like energy-efficient appliances and organic foods becoming more popular, and health-oriented products such as sugar-free snacks seeing rapid sales growth [3] - The trend towards smart consumption is accelerating, with sales of smart wearables increasing by 130% and health products like smart blood pressure monitors growing by over 60% during the holiday [3] - Service consumption is evolving, with customized and experiential travel options gaining popularity, reflecting a trend towards spending on experiences and personal enjoyment [4] Group 3: Policy Support - The Ministry of Commerce, in collaboration with nine departments, launched the "Happy Shopping Spring Festival" initiative, releasing a series of consumption-promoting policies, including 62.5 billion yuan for trade-in subsidies, benefiting over 31 million people and driving sales of 207 billion yuan [5] - Local governments allocated 2.05 billion yuan for consumer vouchers and subsidies, directly reaching consumers and enhancing market vitality [5] Group 4: Open Integration - The expansion of visa-free countries and optimized transit visa policies contributed to a significant increase in international travel, with 17.8 million people entering and exiting the country during the holiday, a 10.1% increase from the previous year [7] - The use of Alipay for foreign visitors surged by over 80%, indicating a growing trend of international consumption in China [7] Group 5: Economic Vitality - The consumer data reflects a vibrant economy, with spending during the Spring Festival igniting a chain reaction in production, employment, and income, contributing to sustained economic growth throughout the year [8] - The collective spending choices of over 1.4 billion people during the festival not only define personal celebrations but also shape the future of China's vast market [8]

（来源：经济参考报） 2月26日，商务部举行例行发布会。商务部新闻发言人何咏前在会上表示，今年春节假期，商务部会同 相关部门和地方，深入组织开展"乐购新春"春节特别活动，加力实施以旧换新、有奖发票等支持政策， 持续打造多元化消费场景，营造浓厚节日氛围，激发节日消费活力。总的来看，今年春节消费市场年味 浓、人气旺、活力足。 何咏前介绍，今年春节9天长假，从城市商圈到乡村大集，"乐购新春"暖意洋洋。商务大数据显示，春 节期间，全国重点零售和餐饮企业日均销售额比去年同期增长5.7%，增速提高1.6个百分点；重点监测 的78个步行街（商圈）客流量、营业额分别增长6.7%和7.5%。 在消费趋势层面，科技与文化的融合正成为新的增长点。何咏前介绍，今年春节，绿色智能产品、AI 购物订餐成为越来越多人的选择，"科技年货"受到青睐。春节假期，重点平台智能眼镜、具身智能机器 人销售额分别增长47.3%和32.7%，古韵国风也成为年轻人的"顶流"之选，中华老字号、"马年元素"文创 产品持续热销。 对此，付一夫表示，科技年货正全面走向大众，AI眼镜、智能穿戴及健康监测设备成为新宠，以旧换 新政策持续推动家电、汽车等大宗消费升级。国 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed weakness, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.39%, the National Enterprises Index down 1.30%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index down 1.65% as of the midday close [1] - The consumption sector in Hong Kong experienced a significant decline, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption ETF (Hua Xia, 513230) dropping nearly 1.5%, indicating a continued opening of low-position layout channels [1] - The National Immigration Administration reported an average of 1.977 million inbound and outbound trips per day during the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, representing a 10.1% increase compared to the previous year [1] Group 2 - The Hainan duty-free market saw a consumption peak during the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, with customs data showing a total duty-free shopping amount of 2.72 billion yuan, a 30.8% increase from the previous year [1] - Guosen Securities released a report emphasizing that boosting domestic demand will be a key focus for economic development in 2026, highlighting the potential for significant growth in residents' service consumption compared to overseas [1] - The report suggests that the current low level of capital allocation in the sector and overall valuations reflecting pessimistic expectations provide a good opportunity for investment, recommending a focus on service consumption as a new driver for economic growth in 2026 [1] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption ETF (Hua Xia, 513230) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Theme Index, which includes leading companies in traditional service industries such as hospitality and dining, as well as high-elasticity assets like trendy toys and gold jewelry [2] - The index also encompasses high-dividend stocks in sectors like sportswear and white goods, covering nearly all areas of Hong Kong consumption, including major players like Pop Mart, Yum China, Lao Pu Gold, Anta Sports, Nongfu Spring, and Mixue Ice City [2]