文 | 洞见新研社 399元的华为AI玩具"智能憨憨"在Mate80发布会上亮相后迅速售罄，其预售首周即突破10万台的成绩， 将一个由代码编织温暖的AI玩具赛道再次推进到公众视野。 "智能憨憨"的热销不仅印证了市场对情感交互类AI玩具的旺盛需求，更应对了国家政策对玩具产业升级 的窗口红利。 工信部不久前的新闻发布会上，消费品工业司司长何亚琼发布了这一数据，"2024年我国AI玩具市场规 模约246亿元，预计2025年全年将增至290亿元"，与此同时，工信部在相关发布中，首次将"AI玩具"明 确定位为驱动产业升级的新增长引擎，并鼓励玩具企业和AI技术企业强强联合。 政策利好与市场热情的双重共振下，AI玩具行业正迎来前所未有的发展机遇，但热潮背后的产业进化 逻辑、现存挑战与未来方向更值得深入剖析。 01 规模激增与多元生态 工信部数据显示，2024年我国国内市场玩具零售总额达978.5亿元，比2020年增长25.5%。AI玩具作为新 兴品类，正成为推动行业增长的重要引擎。 何亚琼在发布会上指出，人工智能及大模型的应用为玩具产品注入新灵魂，显著提升玩具产品交互体 验，能互动、能养成、有性格、有记忆的AI玩具深受年轻 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of Huawei's AI toy "Smart Hanhai" has reignited interest in the AI toy market, marking a significant upgrade in the toy industry driven by AI technology [5][9]. Industry Upgrade - The AI toy trend has evolved from a narrative driven by startups and large companies to a comprehensive upgrade of the toy industry, with multiple cities in China implementing policies to integrate AI with toys [5][10]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has identified "AI toys" as a new growth engine for industrial upgrades, encouraging collaboration between toy and AI technology companies [5][10]. Market Performance - AI toy sales are projected to increase significantly, with JD.com reporting a sixfold increase in sales in the first half of 2025 [9]. - Notable products like BubblePal and Fuzozo have achieved impressive sales figures, with BubblePal selling over 250,000 units and generating over 100 million yuan in revenue [9]. - AI toys have higher profit margins compared to traditional toys, with gross margins for AI toys ranging from 50% to over 90% depending on the product category [9]. Policy Support - Various toy-producing cities, including Guangdong and Jiangsu, have introduced policies to promote the integration of AI in the toy industry, with Guangdong aiming for an AI toy penetration rate of over 30% by 2027 [10][11]. Challenges in AI Toy Development - Despite the potential, the market has yet to see a true blockbuster AI toy, with many companies underestimating the complexity of developing successful AI toys [5][12]. - The industry faces high return rates of 30%-40% due to unsatisfactory user experiences, which significantly erodes profits [15][16]. Consumer Expectations - Consumer interest in AI toys is growing, but many products fail to meet expectations, leading to high return rates [16]. - The industry is shifting towards a more rational approach, with companies recognizing the need for sustainable business models and user retention strategies [16]. Business Models - Companies are exploring various business models, including traditional sales and subscription services for ongoing interaction with AI toys [19]. - The focus is on creating engaging user experiences and character development to enhance user retention and satisfaction [20][21]. Future Directions - The AI toy industry is expected to continue evolving, with companies that can achieve more natural interactions and integrate IP with AI likely to succeed [21].