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国信证券晨会纪要-20250617
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-17 01:42
Macro and Strategy - In May 2025, the growth momentum of the macro economy shifted from exports and investment to consumption, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 6.4% year-on-year, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month [9][10] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 191,947 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% year-on-year, but down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [9][10] - The unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.0%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating stable employment conditions [9][10] Industry and Company Robotics Industry - The human-shaped robot industry is accelerating, with significant developments such as the launch of the first guide robot and the establishment of new robot departments by major companies [16][23] - The government is actively promoting the application of intelligent elderly care service robots, which is expected to enhance the development of the silver economy [16][24] - Key companies to watch include Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, and others involved in various components of robotics [24] Food and Beverage Industry - The high-end liquor market is under pressure, with prices declining due to regulatory impacts and low economic activity [20][21] - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 4.42% in the week of June 9-13, 2025, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [21] - Key investment recommendations include leading brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, which have demonstrated resilience through multiple cycles [21] Real Estate Industry - Real estate development investment fell by 10.7% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, with new housing starts down 22.8% [25][26] - The government is expected to introduce policies to stabilize the real estate market, with potential opportunities for companies like China Resources Land and Beike-W [26] Agriculture Industry - The USDA's monthly supply and demand report indicates a neutral outlook for soybean supply, while the beef and raw milk sectors are expected to see a positive correlation in market conditions [27][30] - The domestic beef market is projected to experience an upward trend, with prices showing resilience despite seasonal fluctuations [34] - Investment recommendations include leading companies in the livestock sector, such as Guangming Meat and Hai Da Group, which are expected to benefit from market recovery [35]