良率"陷阱"助推原材料需求，高盛锁定高端台系供应商 高盛对AI PCB/CCL潜在市场规模（TAM）进行了激进上调。 据追风交易台，高盛分析师 Chao Wang 和 Allen Chang 团队于 2026 年 1 月 6 日发布了关于中国台湾 PCB（印制电路板）及 CCL（覆铜板）行业的研报，高盛将2027年AI PCB的TAM从原先预期的174亿美 元猛增至266亿美元，CCL则从80亿美元上调至183亿美元。这一调整意味着2025-2027年间的复合年增 长率（CAGR）将分别达到惊人的140%和178%。 这种增长并非线性外推，而是基于架构变革的精准计算： "我们全球团队大幅上调AI PCB/CCL TAM的一个关键原因是，我们计入了VR200/300机架内 部新增的PCB/CCL内容。这些新内容将取代过桥线缆（从线缆转为PCB），以改善整体成 本结构并提升计算性能。" 对于密切关注 AI 硬件供应链的投资者而言，这份报告释放了一个明确信号：在英伟达GB300等新一代 架构的推动下，PCB行业正经历一场从单纯的"出货量增长"向"价值量暴涨"的质变。AI 基础设施的扩 建远未结束，且随着技术架构的演 ...

6 January 2026 | 9:57PM CST Equity Research To breakdown the AI hardware by GPU vs. ASICs, we believe the GPU PCB/CCL TAM will go up from US$2.2bn/1.2bn in 2025 to US$15.8bn/11.7bn in 2027 (167%/207% 2025-27E CAGR), while the ASIC PCB/CCL TAM will go up from US$2.4bn/1.4bn in 2025 to US$10.7bn/6.6bn in 2027 (111%/143% 2025-27E CAGR). As such, we see the GPU PCB/CCL TAM to enjoy a better growth in coming years; however, we also see more new suppliers trying to enter the GPU AI PCB/CCL market, which was only ...

6 January 2026 | 9:56PM HKT Equity Research Global PCB: Introducing TAM; AI PCB / CCL value to grow at +140% / +179% CAGR in 2025-27E; toward M9 CCL, 30+ layer PCB and 6L HDI We are introducing a new global AI PCB/ CCL TAM, based on Global Server TAM, which incorporates more in depth analysis on supply and demand. The TAM focuses on the AI computing market where high end PCB/ CCL are required: (1) Demand drivers: The TAM covers both GPU and ASIC AI servers, and the rising of high-end AI servers (e.g. Rubin, ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the Taiwan PCB (Printed Circuit Board) and CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) industry, particularly companies TUC, EMC, GCE, and ZDT - There is a notable acceleration in capital expenditures (CAPEX) due to increasing demand for AI infrastructure investments Key Points and Arguments Capacity Expansion and Demand - TUC, EMC, GCE, and ZDT have announced new capacity expansion plans to meet the rising demand for AI infrastructure [1][4] - TUC's Thailand plant will see a capacity increase of 300k sheets per month by May/June 2026, with potential for further expansion of 1.0-1.2 million sheets per month [6][10] - ZDT plans to invest NT$30 billion annually in CAPEX for 2025/26, focusing on AI HDI products [10] - Overall capacity for the industry is expected to increase by 15% in both 2025 and 2026 [10] Profitability and ASP Trends - High-quality AI server PCB/CCL suppliers are expected to maintain good profitability due to high average selling prices (ASP) and increasing demand [2] - The gross margin for high-end CCL is projected to rise from 20-25% in M6 grade to 40-50% in M7/8 generation [2] - GCE's July financial performance showed a pre-tax margin of 23.25% and a net margin of 15.3%, exceeding both Goldman Sachs estimates and Bloomberg consensus [8][9] Earnings Revisions and Target Price Adjustments - Target prices for EMC, TUC, and GCE have been revised upwards to NT$1,400, NT$375, and NT$550 respectively, reflecting improved industry ASP and profitability outlook [3][22][27] - EMC's earnings estimates for 2025/26/27 have been increased by 1/4/4% due to better demand outlook and ASP growth [13] - TUC's earnings estimates for 2025 have been revised down by 4% due to unfavorable FX impacts, but 2026/27 estimates have been increased by 1% [19][20] - GCE's earnings estimates for 2025/26/27 have been revised up by 3/3/2% based on proactive industry demand and ASP growth [25][26] Financial Performance Highlights - GCE's July revenue was NT$5.646 billion, which is 33% of Goldman Sachs' estimate for Q3, indicating strong performance [9] - TUC's 2Q25 results showed a net income of NT$652 million, which was 15% lower than estimates due to FX impacts [11][12] Valuation Metrics - The target PE multiple for EMC has been increased to 22x for 4Q25-3Q26E, aligning with the AI component industry upcycle average valuation [15][16] - TUC's target PE multiple has been adjusted to 18x for 4Q25-3Q26E, reflecting a higher valuation compared to the past three years [22] - GCE's target PE multiple has been revised to 19x for 4Q25-3Q26E, indicating a strong valuation relative to its historical performance [27] Additional Important Insights - The industry is experiencing a significant shift towards higher quality and more complex PCB/CCL products, driven by advancements in AI technology [2] - The overall sentiment in the industry remains positive, with expectations of continued growth and profitability in the coming years [4][10]