Company Insights - Upstart (UPST) is an AI lending platform that assists banks in making better and faster lending decisions [4] - Over the past year, UPST shares have increased by 78%, but with significant volatility, experiencing 74 moves of 5% or more [4] - The stock price has fluctuated between a high of $96.43 in February and a low of $31.40 in April [4] Financial Projections - MarketWatch projects Upstart to earn $1.65 per share in 2025, $2.44 in 2026, and $3.06 in 2027, indicating an 85% increase over the next two years [6] - The expected price movement over the next nine days is $5.12 (8.2%), with a breakeven price of $56.81, allowing for potential profitability [6] Options Activity - On Wednesday, there was significant unusual options activity with 1,302 options traded, split 65/35 between calls and puts, indicating a bullish sentiment [1] - There were 459 unusually active put options, which could yield outsized returns for aggressive investors [2] - Specific put options with Volume-to-Open-Interest ratios over 10 could generate annualized returns exceeding 70% by selling the puts [3]

Financial Sector Performance - The S&P 500 Financials Sector index has delivered a total return of 25% over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500 index's gain of 20% [1][2] Upstart Holdings (UPST) - Upstart's stock is down 83% from its all-time high, despite posting strong Q2 results with earnings per share of $0.05 on sales of $257 million, exceeding analyst estimates [4][5] - Revenue increased by approximately 101% year-over-year, with loans originated up 159% to 372,599 [5] - The company achieved its first quarter of profitability in years, despite an operating loss of $4.5 million, which is an improvement from a $55.5 million loss in the same quarter last year [6] - Management's comments on inflation and competitive intensity led to a sell-off, but guidance suggests sales could increase by roughly 66% annually this year [7][9] Nu Holdings (NU) - Nu Holdings, a digital bank in Brazil, has about 60% of the adult population on its platform, with 85% of this group being active users [10][11] - The company holds only about 5% of the market share of gross profit, indicating significant growth potential through cross-selling and upselling [11] - In Mexico, customer count increased by 70% over the past year, with deposits more than doubling to $5 billion and revenue nearly doubling to $245 million [12] - Nu's cost to serve remains below $1, while average revenue per active customer has increased, reaching $25 for longtime customers compared to $40 for traditional banks [13] - The stock is down 23% from its high due to economic volatility in Brazil and the sale by Berkshire Hathaway, but continued high growth is expected to drive the stock higher over time [14]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q2 was approximately $257 million, up 102% year-on-year, including fee revenue of approximately $241 million, which was up 84% year-on-year [28][30] - GAAP net income for Q2 was approximately positive $6 million, ahead of expectations, marking a return to profitability a quarter earlier than anticipated [31] - Adjusted EBITDA was $53 million, reflecting strong operating leverage [31] - Average loan size was approximately $7,570, which was 15% lower than the prior quarter due to model advancements driving higher approval rates for smaller loan amounts [29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Originations on the Upstart platform in Q2 reached $2.8 billion, the highest volume in three years [9] - The auto business grew 87% sequentially, while the home business grew 67% sequentially [9] - More than 10% of originations came from newer businesses, including small dollar loans, which grew 40% sequentially [9][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Upstart Macro Index has been largely stable for several months, indicating no significant macro improvements or Fed rate decreases impacting growth [10] - The volume of loan transactions across the platform was approximately 373,000, up 159% from the prior year [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for market share leadership in home and auto lending, with significant investments in these areas expected to yield fast growth and strong credit performance [17] - The strategy includes transitioning most funding for newer products off the balance sheet by 2025 [12][33] - The company is focused on creating a differentiated experience in home and auto lending, leveraging AI to reduce origination costs and improve consumer experience [72] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ongoing growth of the core personal loan business, despite the scaling of new products [27] - The macro environment is expected to remain steady, with no significant changes anticipated in interest rates or labor market conditions [34] - The company plans to continue launching model enhancements to improve conversion rates and maintain robust take rates and contribution margins [34] Other Important Information - The company has made significant advancements in AI technology, with Model 22 improving separation accuracy by 17 percentage points [18] - Year-over-year population-adjusted delinquency rates are down 20%, and raw delinquency rates are down 32% due to servicing optimizations [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion on ABS market and competitive pressure - Management noted that the ABS market is constructive, but the equity tranche market is opportunistic with buyers picking and choosing deals [39] - Increased competition is expected as funding markets improve, but the company remains focused on maintaining strong offers and growing market share [40] Question: Transition to external funding and balance sheet impact - Management indicated a timeline for transitioning to external funding between now and the end of the year, with expectations for the balance sheet to start releasing as new flows are secured [44] Question: Contribution margin improvement - The contribution margin improved due to a mix benefit from more core borrower segment loans and improved take rates driven by model enhancements [52] Question: Macro assumptions and guidance - Management expects a steady macro environment with no significant changes in interest rates or default rates, planning conservatively for the remainder of the year [55] Question: Average loan size and strategic shifts - The decrease in average loan size is strategic, reflecting rapid growth in the small dollar product, which is intended to increase the number of users on the platform [67] Question: Funding partners for new products - The company plans to secure a combination of bank and credit union partners for home and auto products, leveraging their familiarity with these offerings [77] Question: Conversion rate improvement and Walmart partnership - Management did not provide specific forecasts for conversion rates but noted that the Walmart partnership continues to be successful [82]