Credo Technology Group (NasdaqGS:CRDO) Q2 2026 Earnings Call December 01, 2025 05:00 PM ET Company ParticipantsThomas O'Malley - Equity Research DirectorDan Fleming - CFODan O'Neil - VP, Treasurer, Head and Investor RelationsJoseph Cardoso - VP and Equity ResearchQuinn Bolton - MD and Equity ResearchKarl Ackerman - MD, Semiconductors, Networking Hardware and Equity ResearchBill Brennan - President and CEOSuji Desilva - MD and Senior ResearchConference Call ParticipantsJay Rakesh - AnalystSebastian Nagy - An ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported record revenue of $268 million for Q2 2026, representing a 20% sequential growth and a 272% increase year over year [5][17]. - Non-GAAP gross margin was 67.7%, with non-GAAP net income reaching approximately $128 million, marking the strongest quarterly results in the company's history [5][19]. - Non-GAAP operating income was $124.1 million, reflecting a significant increase due to over 20% sequential top-line growth [19]. - Cash flow from operations was $61.7 million, with ending cash and equivalents of $813.6 million, an increase of $333.9 million from Q1 [20]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Active Electrical Cables (AEC) product line continued to be the fastest-growing segment, with revenue driven by increasing customer diversity, including four hyperscalers contributing over 10% of total revenue [6][17]. - The Integrated Circuit (IC) business, including retimers and optical DSPs, also showed strong performance, with significant growth expected in fiscal 2026 [9]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that the AECs have become the de facto standard for inter-rack connectivity, displacing traditional optical connections [6][7]. - The total addressable market (TAM) for AECs and IC solutions is projected to exceed $10 billion, more than tripling from 18 months ago [15][16]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its product offerings with three new growth pillars: Zero-flap Optics, Active LED Cables (ALCs), and OmniConnect gearboxes, each representing multi-billion dollar market opportunities [11][12][13]. - The strategy emphasizes delivering high-reliability and power-efficient solutions tailored to the needs of AI training and inference clusters [5][6]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in continued revenue growth through fiscal 2026 and beyond, driven by the ramp-up of new product categories and existing AEC and IC businesses [16]. - The company anticipates significant year-over-year growth from its top customers and expects to strengthen revenue diversification [21][22]. Other Important Information - The company is well-capitalized to invest in growth opportunities, with a substantial cash buffer and plans for continued innovation in connectivity solutions [20]. - The management highlighted the importance of reliability and power efficiency in their product offerings, which are critical for the evolving demands of AI infrastructure [30][31]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Expansion of the AEC market and ALC market potential - Management indicated that the ALC market could be double the AEC TAM, driven by both quantity and average selling price (ASP) increases [24]. Question: Customer revenue contributions - The largest customer contributed 42% of revenue, followed by others at 24%, 16%, and 11%, with expectations for continued growth and diversification [26][27]. Question: Focus on system-level products - The company is committed to expanding its portfolio at the system level, with a focus on delivering non-commodity solutions that exceed industry standards [28][29]. Question: AEC supply constraints - Management does not foresee concerns regarding AEC production capacity, citing a strong partnership with manufacturing providers [41][42]. Question: Transition to higher-speed connections - The company confirmed that it is in production with 25, 50, and 100 gig per lane solutions, with expectations for future transitions to 200 gig per lane [45][46]. Question: Licensing of AEC IP - The decision to license AEC IP reflects the company's established competitive position and the need to protect its innovations in a growing market [60].

Core Insights - Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd. (CRDO) and Astera Labs, Inc (ALAB) are key players in high-speed connectivity solutions essential for AI and data center infrastructure, attracting investor interest due to the rapid proliferation of AI [1][2] CRDO: Explosive Growth Trajectory - CRDO's revenue grew 274% year over year to $223.1 million, driven by strong performance in Ethernet and Active Electrical Cables (AEC) [3][7] - AECs offer up to 1,000 times more reliability and 50% lower power consumption compared to optical solutions, enhancing cluster reliability and reducing power consumption [4] - CRDO is diversifying its market position by investing in copper and optical solutions, with its optical DSP segment expected to double revenues in the current fiscal year [5] - The introduction of the ZeroFlap optical transceiver product line supports speeds of 400G, 800G, and 1.6T, addressing optical link flaps that disrupt network performance [6][8] - Non-GAAP operating income reached $96.2 million, a significant increase from $2.2 million in the prior year, showcasing strong profitability [9] - CRDO reported free cash flow of $51.3 million and had $479.6 million in cash and equivalents, positioning it well for future growth opportunities [10] - For fiscal 2026, CRDO anticipates mid-single-digit sequential revenue growth, leading to a projected 120% year-over-year increase [11] ALAB: Younger Entrant but Gaining Ground Rapidly - Astera Labs, founded in 2017, designs advanced interconnect products and is experiencing revenue growth from its signal conditioning and Switch Fabric product lines [12] - The Scorpio PCIe Fabric Switches are rapidly gaining traction, expected to exceed 10% of total revenues by 2025 [13] - ALAB anticipates Q3 2025 revenues between $203 million and $210 million, reflecting a 6-9% quarter-over-quarter increase [13] - The Aries product line is diversifying across GPU and custom ASIC systems, enhancing ALAB's position in high-speed signal conditioning [14] - ALAB is focused on product innovation and has joined the Arm Total Design ecosystem to develop next-gen chiplet solutions for AI infrastructure [17] - ALAB announced the acquisition of aiXscale Photonics GmbH to enhance its photonic scale-up solutions [18] Price Performance and Valuation - Over the past month, CRDO's stock increased by 4.2%, while ALAB's stock decreased by 18.4% [22] - CRDO is trading at a forward 12-month price/sales ratio of 23.8X, lower than ALAB's 28.23X [23] Analyst Estimates - Analysts have significantly revised CRDO's bottom line estimates upward in the past 60 days, indicating strong growth expectations [27] - In contrast, ALAB has not seen any estimate revisions during the same period [28] Investment Outlook - Both CRDO and ALAB are well-positioned to benefit from the growing AI-driven data center market, with CRDO currently holding a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) compared to ALAB's Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [30]

Industry Overview - The artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure segment is experiencing significant growth, driven by increased demand for cloud computing and data centers, with expectations of transformative changes across various sectors over the next five years [1] - The AI infrastructure market is projected to reach $223.45 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 30.4% from 2024 to 2030 [21] Company Summaries Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd. (CRDO) - CRDO is focused on high-performance serial connectivity solutions for data centers, 5G, and AI markets, with its Active Electrical Cables (AEC) product line gaining traction due to superior reliability [6][7] - The company has achieved significant design wins, including an 800-gig transceiver DSP, and expects continued growth driven by demand for high-performance solutions in AI servers [10][12] - CRDO anticipates revenue and earnings growth rates exceeding 100% for the current year, with a recent 1.5% improvement in earnings estimates [13] Western Digital Corp. (WDC) - WDC has seen a 36% surge in cloud end market revenue, driven by demand for high-capacity HDDs, and is ramping up production of advanced storage solutions [14] - The adoption of generative AI is expected to drive a refresh cycle in client and consumer devices, increasing storage demand across various sectors [15][16] - WDC's expected revenue growth rate is -17.8%, while earnings are projected to grow by 34.3% for the current year, with a 1.8% improvement in earnings estimates [18] Celestica Inc. (CLS) - CLS is a major player in electronics manufacturing services, benefiting from strong demand in the Connectivity & Cloud Solutions segment, particularly for networking products [19][20] - The company is well-positioned in the AI infrastructure market, with solid investments in data communications and processing infrastructure products [22] - CLS expects revenue and earnings growth rates of 20.6% and 43%, respectively, for the current year, with a 9.9% improvement in earnings estimates [23] Micron Technology Inc. (MU) - MU is a leader in the AI infrastructure boom, driven by strong demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) solutions and record sales in the data center market [24][25] - The shift towards AI servers is increasing demand for advanced memory solutions, with MU focusing on next-generation DRAM and NAND technologies [26] - MU anticipates revenue and earnings growth rates of 42.4% and over 100%, respectively, for the current year, with a 27% improvement in earnings estimates [27] Ubiquiti Inc. (UI) - UI's adaptable global business model and strong community support enhance its growth potential, with significant investments in inventory to meet rising demand [28][29] - The company maintains a consistent dividend policy while managing a sustainable payout ratio, contributing to its positive outlook [29] - UI expects revenue and earnings growth rates of 12% and 10%, respectively, for the current year, with a 29.7% improvement in earnings estimates [30]

Core Insights - Hyperscaler partnerships are crucial for Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd.'s rapid growth, enabling market share expansion through the adoption of active electrical cables (AEC) and optical solutions for next-gen AI data centers [1][2] - The demand for AI-driven data center infrastructure has led to a significant revenue increase for Credo, with a 274% year-over-year growth in Q1 of fiscal 2026 [2][8] - Management anticipates that all major hyperscalers will adopt AECs due to their higher reliability, lower power consumption, and reduced system costs compared to optical solutions [3][8] Company Performance - Credo's revenue growth is driven by contributions from multiple hyperscalers, with three hyperscalers each accounting for over 10% of total revenues in the recent quarter [2][8] - The company expects further diversification as additional hyperscalers ramp up their contributions in the coming quarters [2] - Credo's shares have increased by 144.6% year-to-date, outperforming the Electronics-Semiconductors industry's growth of 36.2% [10] Market Position and Competition - The electronics semiconductor market is competitive, dominated by established players like Marvell Technology and emerging companies like Astera Labs [4] - Marvell is well-positioned to capture a larger share of the market due to its strong demand environment and multigenerational custom engagements with hyperscalers [5][6] - Astera Labs is focusing on advanced AI infrastructure and sees significant growth potential in purpose-built solutions for hyperscalers [7][9] Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Credo's earnings for fiscal 2026 has been revised upward significantly over the past 60 days, indicating positive market sentiment [12] - Current earnings estimates for Q1 and Q2 of fiscal 2026 are $0.48 and $0.49 respectively, with significant upward revisions noted [13]

Core Insights - Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) is experiencing robust demand from hyperscalers and data center operators due to accelerated AI infrastructure investments, with Q1 fiscal 2026 revenues increasing by 31% sequentially and 274% year-over-year to $223.1 million, surpassing management's guidance of $185 million to $195 million [1][11] Revenue Growth and Projections - For fiscal 2026, the company expects mid-single-digit sequential revenue growth, leading to approximately 120% year-over-year growth, with previous expectations of revenues exceeding $800 million, indicating over 85% year-over-year growth [2] - The AEC product line is a key growth driver, showing healthy double-digit sequential growth in the last reported quarter, with increased demand expected from rack-to-rack deployments [4][11] Product and Market Position - Credo operates at the intersection of AI and data center build-outs, offering active electrical cables (AEC), optical Digital Signal Processors (DSP), and PCIe retimer solutions that meet the demand for high-speed, low-power connectivity [3] - The optical DSP segment is maintaining strong momentum, with expectations to double optical revenues in the current fiscal year, while PCIe retimer solutions are gaining traction, with anticipated design wins in 2025 and production revenues in 2026 [7][11] Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment is intensifying, with Credo facing competition from major semiconductor companies like Broadcom and Marvell Technology, as well as new entrants like Astera Labs [9] - Despite the challenges, Credo's system-level approach provides a competitive advantage, owning the entire stack of SerDes IP, Retimer ICs, and system-level design, which enhances innovation cycles and cost efficiency [8] Stock Performance and Valuation - CRDO shares have increased by 38.5% in the past month, outperforming the Electronics-Semiconductors industry's growth of 14.9% [16] - The forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio for CRDO is 27.4, significantly higher than the sector's multiple of 9.62 [18] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CRDO earnings for fiscal 2026 has been revised upwards significantly over the past 60 days, indicating positive market sentiment [19]

Core Insights - Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) is establishing a strong position in the AI era through a system-level strategy that integrates the entire solution stack, providing a competitive edge in next-generation data centers [1][10] - The company's mastery of SerDes technology, combined with a customer-centric approach, enhances its competitive advantage in latency, reach, and power efficiency [2][10] - Credo's PILOT software platform improves time-to-market and system monitoring, further expanding its value proposition [2][3] System-Level Strategy - Credo's holistic approach accelerates time-to-market and fosters innovation, positioning the company favorably as hyperscale workloads and AI-optimized architectures evolve [2] - The strong adoption of Active Electrical Cables (AEC), Optical Digital Signal Processors (DSPs), and retimers demonstrates the effectiveness of the system-level strategy [4][10] - Demand for AECs is increasing, particularly for ZeroFlap AECs, which offer over 100 times greater reliability than traditional laser-based solutions [4] Optical Business Growth - Credo's optical business is experiencing strong momentum, especially with its 3nm 200G-per-lane optical DSP, which supports port speeds up to 1.6 Tbps [5] - The company anticipates continued growth in PCIe and Ethernet retimers, with design wins expected in 2025 and revenues projected in 2026 [5] - The shift towards 100G-per-lane solutions and rising demand for system-level expertise in AI-optimized architectures bolster the outlook for retimers [5][6] Financial Projections - For fiscal 2026, Credo expects revenues to exceed $800 million, indicating over 85% year-over-year growth, with non-GAAP net margin approaching 40% [7][10] - Non-GAAP operating expenses are projected to rise at less than half the revenue growth rate, showcasing operational discipline [7] Market Competition - Credo faces increasing competition from semiconductor giants like Broadcom and Marvell Technology, which are also capitalizing on the AI wave [8] - Broadcom reported a 46% year-over-year growth in AI revenues, reaching $4.4 billion, while Marvell posted a 58% year-over-year increase in revenues to $2.006 billion [9][12] Stock Performance - CRDO shares have surged 258% over the past year, significantly outperforming the Electronics-Semiconductors industry's growth of 41.3% [13] - The forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio for CRDO is 26.02, which is higher than the sector's multiple of 9.02 [14]

Industry Overview - The artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure sector is experiencing significant growth, with a bullish demand scenario and a projected capital expenditure increase of 46% year-over-year, reaching $325 billion by 2025 [3][4]. - The total addressable global sovereign AI market is estimated to be $1.5 trillion, indicating vast opportunities for investment and development in various fields such as healthcare, energy, and cybersecurity [4]. Company Highlights Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd. (CRDO) - Credo Technology is focused on high-performance serial connectivity solutions, particularly in AI server markets, with its Active Electrical Cables (AEC) gaining traction due to their reliability [9][10]. - The company has achieved significant milestones, including an 800-gig transceiver DSP design win and the introduction of ultra-low-power optical DSPs, which are expected to enhance industry standards [11][14]. - CRDO anticipates a revenue growth rate of 85.8% and earnings growth of over 100% for the current fiscal year, with a 37% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 60 days [14]. Jabil Inc. (JBL) - Jabil is benefiting from strong momentum in AI-powered data center infrastructure and has a diversified product portfolio that enhances its resilience against macroeconomic disruptions [15][16]. - The company has a projected revenue growth rate of 5.6% and earnings growth of 17.8% for the next fiscal year, with an 8.4% increase in earnings estimates over the past 30 days [17]. Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) - Lumentum designs and manufactures optical technologies that support AI applications, with a focus on high-speed telecommunications and data centers [18][20]. - The company has a strong collaboration with NVIDIA in developing photonic solutions, which are crucial for AI infrastructure [21]. - LITE expects a revenue growth rate of 32.8% and earnings growth of over 100% for the current fiscal year, with a slight improvement in earnings estimates recently [21].

Core Insights - Wall Street continues its upward trend, primarily driven by the technology sector's adoption of generative AI, despite some challenges in early 2025 [2] - Three technology companies have seen significant earnings estimate revisions, indicating positive market expectations [3] Company Summaries Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) - DELL has experienced strong demand for AI servers, securing $12.1 billion in AI server orders, which has created a robust backlog [5][9] - The company is expanding its cloud services and AI infrastructure through its APEX platform, which offers multi-cloud solutions [7] - DELL's expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the current year are 8.7% and 16%, respectively, with a recent 0.1% improvement in earnings estimates [8] Jabil Inc. (JBL) - JBL benefits from momentum in capital equipment and AI-powered data center infrastructure, with an 8.4% increase in next-year EPS estimates [9][12] - The company maintains high free cash flow, indicating efficient financial management and operational efficiency [11] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for JBL are 5.8% and 17.8%, respectively, for the next fiscal year [12] Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd. (CRDO) - CRDO specializes in high-performance serial connectivity solutions, with its Active Electrical Cables (AEC) gaining traction in the data center market [14] - The company has seen a 37% increase in earnings estimates over the last 60 days, with expected revenue and earnings growth rates of 85.8% and over 100% for the current year [19] - CRDO's product lines, including PCIe retimers and Ethernet retimers, are experiencing robust demand, particularly in AI server applications [17][18]

Core Insights - Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) has experienced a significant stock appreciation of 144.2% over the past three months, driven by AI proliferation and demand for energy-efficient connectivity solutions, with shares trading near a 52-week high of $95.71 [1][10] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, projecting revenues to surpass $800 million in fiscal 2026, indicating over 85% year-over-year growth [12][10] Group 1: Business Performance - CRDO's Active Electrical Cables (AEC) product line has shown double-digit sequential growth in fiscal Q4 2025, gaining traction in the data center market [3] - The AECs offer over 100 times improved reliability compared to laser-based optical solutions, making them increasingly attractive for data center applications [4] - The optical business, particularly Optical Digital Signal Processors (DSPs), has also been a key growth driver, achieving revenue targets and expanding customer diversity [5] - CRDO's revenues for fiscal 2025 reached $436.8 million, a 126% year-over-year increase, with Q4 revenues surging 179.7% year-over-year to $170 million [9] Group 2: Product Innovations - CRDO's 3-nanometer 200-gig-per-lane optical DSP is expected to facilitate the industry's transition to higher lane speeds [6] - The PCIe retimers and Ethernet retimers business is witnessing robust performance, particularly in AI server applications, driven by demand for 50 gig and 100 gig per lane Ethernet solutions [7][8] Group 3: Financial Outlook - For Q1 fiscal 2026, CRDO expects revenues between $185 million and $195 million, reflecting a 12% sequential increase at the midpoint, with a projected non-GAAP gross margin of 64-66% [12] - The company anticipates non-GAAP net margin to approach nearly 40% due to operating expenses growing at less than half the revenue growth rate [12] Group 4: Market Position - CRDO's stock performance has outpaced peers like Broadcom, Marvell, and Cirrus Logic, which gained 57.9%, 36.2%, and 26.9% respectively [15][20] - The company is trading at a forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio of 18.96, significantly higher than the sector average of 8.60 [21] Group 5: Investment Recommendation - Given the strong fundamentals and positive market outlook, CRDO is positioned as a strong buy, with rising investor confidence and a differentiated product offering [23][24]