Microchip (NasdaqGS:MCHP) Q3 2026 Earnings call February 05, 2026 05:00 PM ET Speaker8Welcome to Microchip's Q3 fiscal year 2026 financial results conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Eric Bjorn ...

Core Insights - Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) is a leading tech company specializing in data-driven networking solutions, with a market cap of $183.4 billion, and is set to announce its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on February 12 [1] Financial Performance - Analysts expect ANET to report a profit of $0.67 per share for the upcoming quarter, reflecting a 13.6% increase from $0.59 per share in the same quarter last year [2] - For the current fiscal year, ANET's EPS is projected to be $2.60, which is a 26.2% increase from $2.06 in fiscal 2024, and is expected to rise to $2.96 in fiscal 2026, marking a 13.9% year-over-year growth [3] Stock Performance - ANET stock has increased by 12.5% over the past year, which is lower than the S&P 500 Index's 16.7% gains and the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund's 23.2% rise during the same period [4] Recent Developments - On December 10, ANET's stock rose by 1.8% following the introduction of new campus networking capabilities, including VESPA technology for scalable Wi-Fi mobility and enhancements to its AI-powered AVA platform, indicating strong demand for its software-driven networking solutions [5] Analyst Sentiment - The consensus among analysts is bullish, with a "Strong Buy" rating for ANET stock; 17 out of 24 analysts recommend a "Strong Buy," while two suggest a "Moderate Buy" and five give a "Hold" rating. The average price target is $167.22, suggesting a potential upside of 28% from current levels [6]

Core Insights - Applied Optoelectronics reported an insider sale by Senior Vice President and Chief Legal Officer David C. Kuo, who sold 12,500 shares for $501,875 on December 23, 2025, coinciding with the stock reaching a 52-week high of $41.96 [1][10]. Transaction Summary - The transaction involved the sale of 12,500 shares at a price of $40.15 per share, resulting in a total value of $501,875 [2]. - Post-transaction, Mr. Kuo holds 130,948 shares valued at approximately $5.32 million [2]. Company Overview - As of December 23, 2025, Applied Optoelectronics has a market capitalization of $2.72 billion and reported a trailing twelve months (TTM) revenue of $421.71 million [4]. - The company's stock price experienced a 1-year decline of 2.08% [4]. Company Snapshot - Applied Optoelectronics specializes in fiber-optic networking solutions, serving sectors such as data centers and telecommunications [6][7]. - The company generates revenue through the sale of optical networking components and systems to various customers, including internet data center operators and telecom equipment manufacturers [7]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Applied Optoelectronics reported revenue of $118.6 million, a significant increase from $65.2 million in the previous year [10]. - The company forecasts Q4 revenue between $125 million and $140 million, compared to $100.3 million in Q4 2024, although it reported a net loss of $17.9 million at the end of Q3 [11]. Insider Trading Context - David Kuo's sale was part of a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan established in May 2025, indicating that the transaction was prearranged and not a sign of insider selling [9]. - The sale represented 8.71% of Mr. Kuo's direct ownership, slightly above his recent median sale proportion of 7.67% [6].

Industry Overview - The Communication Components industry is benefiting from strong demand trends and an increasing user inclination towards digital innovations, leading to a significant demand for quality networking components [1] - The industry is currently ranked in the top 23% of the Zacks Industry Rank, with a remarkable 112% return over the past year and a 29.3% return over the last three months, indicating expected outperformance in the next three to six months [2] Company Highlights Ciena Corp. (CIEN) - Ciena reported a 20% year-over-year revenue increase and 69.5% EPS growth in its fiscal fourth quarter, with a record order backlog of $5 million, driven by AI-led demand from cloud and service provider customers [6][9] - The company’s Networking Platforms revenues rose 22% to $1.05 billion, supported by a 19% growth in Optical and a 49% increase in Routing and Switching due to DCOM demand [7] - Ciena has raised its fiscal 2026 revenue outlook to $5.7-$6.1 billion, reflecting nearly 24% growth at the midpoint, up from a prior estimate of 17% [7] - The company expects to enhance profitability through a balanced mix of new and existing customers, with its portfolio maintaining a technology lead of 18-24 months [8] - Ciena has an expected revenue growth rate of 24.2% and an earnings growth rate of over 100% for the current year [10] Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) - Lumentum designs and manufactures optical and photonic technologies, with a focus on high-speed telecommunications and data centers, supporting the growth of AI and cloud computing [11] - The company has seen momentum in its shares due to rising AI demand, developing photonic solutions for AI applications, particularly in data centers [13] - Lumentum has a strong collaboration with NVIDIA for developing silicon photonics, enhancing its offerings in the AI space [14] - The expected revenue growth rate for Lumentum is 56%, with earnings growth projected to exceed 100% for the current year [14] Corning Inc. (GLW) - Corning focuses on developing advanced cover materials, with its Gorilla Armor 2 material being deployed in Samsung's Galaxy S25 Ultra devices [15] - The company offers a range of products for data centers, including optical fiber and connectors, positioning itself well for long-term growth [16] - The adoption of innovative optical connectivity products for generative AI applications is anticipated to drive growth for Corning in the upcoming quarters [17] - Corning has an expected revenue growth rate of 11.2% and an earnings growth rate of 20% for the current year [18]

Core Viewpoint - Lumentum Holdings Inc. is experiencing significant upward revisions in price targets from major financial institutions due to strong demand for optical components and transceivers, although there are concerns about stretched valuations impacting future growth potential [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Target Adjustments - Morgan Stanley raised Lumentum's price target to $304 from $190, maintaining an Equal Weight rating, citing a broadening focus from chips to infrastructure, particularly optical [1]. - Bank of America increased its price target to $375 from $210 with a Neutral rating, driven by exceptional demand for optical components and transceivers, indicating that orders are outpacing supply [2]. - JPMorgan raised its price target to $350 from $235 while keeping an Overweight rating, highlighting growth drivers such as scale-across and multi-rail opportunities in optical networking [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Growth Drivers - The demand for optical components is expected to remain strong through mid-2026, supported by AI investment trends and telecom innovations [1][3]. - JPMorgan's analysis suggests that the current high growth rates for Lumentum may be sustained longer than previously anticipated, leading to a higher earnings multiple applied to the stock [4]. - Lumentum operates in two segments: Cloud & Networking and Industrial Tech, manufacturing and selling optical and photonic products across various global regions [4].

Group 1 - Susquehanna initiated coverage of Fabrinet (FN) with a Positive rating and a price target of $550, highlighting its benefits from the inflection of transceivers in data centers and opportunities in optical networking and AI server contract manufacturing [1] - Evercore ISI initiated coverage of Rockwell Automation (ROK) with an In Line rating and a price target of $440, noting that multi-industrials provide leverage to strong underlying cycles, with expectations of outperformance in 2026 [1] - Macquarie initiated coverage of Pony AI (PONY) with an Outperform rating and a price target of $29, stating that Pony is at the forefront of robotaxi commercialization in China [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of SiTime (SITM) with a Buy rating and a price target of $420, recognizing it as the leading provider of silicon-based precision timing solutions and the only scaled pure-play MEMS timing company benefiting from the shift away from quartz [1] - William Blair initiated coverage of RealReal (REAL) with an Outperform rating, viewing the resale market as a significant emerging trend in retail [1] - Evercore also started coverage of Honeywell (HON) and GE Vernova (GEV) with Outperform ratings, indicating positive outlooks for these companies [1]

Summary of Conference Call Company Overview - The conference call features Fabrinet, a company involved in IT hardware and communications equipment, with a focus on optical and transceiver manufacturing. Key Industry Insights Telecom and Data Center Interconnect (DCI) - Fabrinet has recently separated DCI from its telecom reporting to provide clearer visibility on growth, driven primarily by the Datacom sector [4][14] - DCI products, particularly 400ZR and 800ZR, are experiencing strong growth, with five main customers contributing to this segment [4][5] - The demand for DCI is robust, with expectations for sustainable growth over the coming years [15][14] - Traditional telecom business is growing but at a more stable rate compared to the exponential growth seen in DCI [20][24] High-Performance Computing (HPC) - Fabrinet has initiated a new HPC category, primarily serving AWS, with a revenue of $15 million from qualification volumes [28][30] - The company aims to establish a cost-competitive solution in the HPC market, with potential for significant growth [31][30] - The HPC business is expected to ramp up, with plans for additional product offerings beyond PCBAs [100][105] Capacity Expansion - Fabrinet is constructing Building 10, which will add $2.5 billion in revenue capacity, with a current run rate of $4.5 billion [39][40] - The new facility will be flexible, allowing for quick repurposing based on customer needs [41][44] - The capital expenditure for Building 10 is approximately $130 million, funded from existing cash reserves [45][46] Datacom Demand - Demand for transceivers in the Datacom sector is described as insatiable, particularly with the rise of AI data centers [69][70] - Fabrinet is producing advanced transceivers (200G, 800G, and 1.6T) but faces component shortages that limit production capacity [71][73] - The company is exploring opportunities with various customers, including traditional companies and hyperscalers [78][79] Automotive Sector - Fabrinet's automotive business is stable, with growth in EV charging infrastructure and LiDAR technology [94][95] - The company has captured a significant share of the LiDAR market, positioning itself for future growth as the technology gains traction [95] Financial Performance and Strategy - Fabrinet aims for a gross margin range of 12.5%-13%, with low operating expenses around 1.6%-1.7% of revenue [93][94] - The company has a strong financial position with no debt and approximately $1 billion in cash, allowing for self-funded growth [45][46] - Fabrinet's growth strategy focuses on maintaining a compound annual growth rate of 16% over the past decade, with plans to continue this trend [130][130] Additional Considerations - The company emphasizes the importance of performance and customer satisfaction in securing additional business opportunities [106][107] - Fabrinet is committed to long-term planning, utilizing an eight-quarter rolling revenue forecast to guide its growth strategy [129][130] - The company is open to diversifying its product offerings beyond optical solutions, depending on customer demand [85][86]

Sanmina Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Sanmina (NasdaqGS: SANM) - **Business Focus**: Global leader in design and manufacturing solutions, primarily in heavily regulated markets and complex products, avoiding the consumer space. Key sectors include communication networks, cloud infrastructure, medical, aerospace and defense, industrial, and energy [4][5][6]. Financial Performance - **Fiscal Year 2025 Revenue**: Approximately $8.1 billion, with high single-digit growth [5]. - **Cash Generation**: Generated about $621 million in cash [5]. - **Revenue Breakdown**: - Communication networks and cloud infrastructure: ~40% (~$3.1 billion) [6][23]. - Industrial, energy, medical, aerospace, defense, and automotive: ~60% (~$5 billion) [10]. Business Segments 1. Communication Networks and Cloud Infrastructure - **Growth**: High double-digit growth, with approximately 20% year-over-year growth [24]. - **Key Products**: Optical modules, transceivers, and data center networking equipment [23][24]. - **Acquisition Impact**: Recent acquisition of ZT Systems expected to enhance capabilities in cloud infrastructure and AI [8][25]. 2. Industrial and Energy - **Performance**: Mixed results; energy sector performing well with projects in power storage and controls, while industrial sector showing varied performance [12][13]. - **Customer Outlook**: Improved visibility with stable forecasts from customers [11]. 3. Medical - **Market Participation**: Engaged in a wide range of medical products from large hospital equipment to wearables [14]. - **Growth Outlook**: Low single-digit growth in FY2025, with expectations for improvement in the second half of FY2026 [15]. 4. Aerospace and Defense - **Business Mix**: Focused on U.S. Department of Defense and commercial aerospace, with stable performance expected due to long-term contracts [16][17]. 5. Automotive - **Focus**: Primarily on electric vehicles (EVs), with growth driven by expanding product offerings [19][20]. - **Market Dynamics**: Anticipated improvement in the second half of FY2026 despite broader automotive market challenges [20]. Acquisition of ZT Systems - **Acquisition Details**: Closed at the end of October 2025 for approximately $2 billion, with expected revenue contribution of $5.7 billion annually [28][36]. - **Strategic Partnership**: Collaboration with AMD for design engineering and manufacturing [35]. - **Growth Potential**: Focus on accelerated compute and storage solutions for hyperscalers and OEMs [34][36]. Financial Outlook - **FY1Q26 Guidance**: Legacy Sanmina revenue expected to be flat sequentially but up 5% year-over-year, with high single-digit growth anticipated throughout FY26 [45]. - **Operating Margin Targets**: Near-term target of high 5s to low 6%, with long-term goal of 6%-7% [48][51]. - **Free Cash Flow**: Generated $621 million in cash flow from operations last year, with a strong balance sheet to support growth [56][60]. Capital Allocation and Future Strategy - **M&A Appetite**: Open to future acquisitions that align with growth strategy while maintaining leverage ratios [63]. - **Share Buybacks**: Currently on hold, with focus on growth and capital allocation strategies [65]. Conclusion - **Company's Position**: Sanmina is well-positioned for growth with a strong legacy business and the recent acquisition of ZT Systems, which is expected to transform the company and expand its market reach [68].

Industry Overview - The artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure sector is experiencing significant growth, with a bullish demand scenario and a projected capital expenditure increase of 46% year-over-year, reaching $325 billion by 2025 [3][4]. - The total addressable global sovereign AI market is estimated to be $1.5 trillion, indicating vast opportunities for investment and development in various fields such as healthcare, energy, and cybersecurity [4]. Company Highlights Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd. (CRDO) - Credo Technology is focused on high-performance serial connectivity solutions, particularly in AI server markets, with its Active Electrical Cables (AEC) gaining traction due to their reliability [9][10]. - The company has achieved significant milestones, including an 800-gig transceiver DSP design win and the introduction of ultra-low-power optical DSPs, which are expected to enhance industry standards [11][14]. - CRDO anticipates a revenue growth rate of 85.8% and earnings growth of over 100% for the current fiscal year, with a 37% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 60 days [14]. Jabil Inc. (JBL) - Jabil is benefiting from strong momentum in AI-powered data center infrastructure and has a diversified product portfolio that enhances its resilience against macroeconomic disruptions [15][16]. - The company has a projected revenue growth rate of 5.6% and earnings growth of 17.8% for the next fiscal year, with an 8.4% increase in earnings estimates over the past 30 days [17]. Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) - Lumentum designs and manufactures optical technologies that support AI applications, with a focus on high-speed telecommunications and data centers [18][20]. - The company has a strong collaboration with NVIDIA in developing photonic solutions, which are crucial for AI infrastructure [21]. - LITE expects a revenue growth rate of 32.8% and earnings growth of over 100% for the current fiscal year, with a slight improvement in earnings estimates recently [21].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Jabil reported Q3 net revenue of $7.8 billion, a 16% increase year over year, exceeding guidance by $800 million [5][10] - Core operating income reached $420 million with core operating margins at 5.4%, a 20 basis point improvement year over year [6][10] - Core diluted earnings per share for Q3 was $2.55, up 35% compared to the same quarter last year [6][10] Performance by Business Segment - Regulated Industries segment revenue was $3.1 billion, flat year over year, reflecting softness in EV and renewable markets [7] - Intelligent Infrastructure segment revenue was $3.4 billion, up approximately 51% year on year, driven by AI-related cloud and data center infrastructure demand [7][8] - Connected Living and Digital Commerce segment revenue was $1.3 billion, down approximately 7% year over year, mainly due to softness in consumer-driven products [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Inventory days decreased to 74 days, with cash flow from operations at $406 million for Q3 [9][10] - The company expects Q4 revenue for Regulated Industries to be $2.9 billion, down 5% year on year, while Intelligent Infrastructure is projected to grow to $3.3 billion, up approximately 42% year over year [11][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Jabil is focusing on expanding its U.S. manufacturing footprint, particularly in AI and data center infrastructure, with a planned investment of $500 million over several years [19][20] - The company aims to enhance core margins and optimize cash flow while returning value to shareholders through share repurchases [25][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate geopolitical uncertainties and highlighted the strength of its diversified portfolio [14][25] - The company raised its revenue guidance for fiscal 2025 to approximately $29 billion, expecting core diluted earnings per share of $9.33 for the year [25][26] Other Important Information - Jabil's debt to core EBITDA ratio is approximately 1.4 times, indicating a healthy balance sheet [10] - The company repurchased $339 million of its shares in Q3 and is on track to complete a $1 billion share repurchase authorization in Q4 [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the expected growth in AI-related revenues for fiscal 2026 and beyond? - Management indicated that AI-related revenue is projected to reach approximately $8.5 billion for fiscal 2025, with further guidance to be provided in September [32][34] Question: What needs to happen for operating margins to reach 6% or more? - Management noted that improving capacity utilization and focusing on higher-margin business segments could help achieve this goal [37][39] Question: How is the company assessing risks related to strong sales potentially being due to pull-in buying? - Management clarified that the revenue beat was primarily in capital equipment and cloud data center infrastructure, with minimal tariff impact [42][43] Question: What is the focus of the new U.S. manufacturing investment? - The investment aims to diversify the customer base and expand capabilities in AI and data center infrastructure, not just support existing customers [46][47] Question: How does the company view capital allocation between M&A and buybacks? - Management emphasized a commitment to returning value to shareholders through buybacks while remaining open to strategic acquisitions that enhance capabilities [100][102]