Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) and American Express Company (AXP) operate in different segments of the payments ecosystem, with both companies positioned at the intersection of consumer spending and credit [1] - The evolving payment preferences and financing models are leading investors to compare traditional card-based companies with newer embedded-finance disruptors [2] Affirm's Position - Affirm is a key player in the buy now, pay later (BNPL) model, integrating into digital checkout experiences, and has reported a 33.6% year-over-year revenue growth in its last quarter [4][10] - The company has 24.1 million active consumers and a 96% repeat transaction rate, indicating strong user engagement [4][10] - Affirm's technology-first underwriting model utilizes real-time data and machine learning for credit risk assessment, which has stabilized credit performance [5] - The company has a growing merchant ecosystem with 420,000 partners, including major brands like Shopify and Amazon, enhancing its market presence [6] - Affirm's long-term debt-to-capital ratio stands at 70.6%, higher than AmEx's 64.1%, reflecting its growth-stage profile [7] - The company is diversifying its funding sources through securitizations and bank partnerships, which is expected to improve profitability over time [8] American Express's Position - American Express is recognized as a leading operator in traditional payments, benefiting from a loyal customer base and strong brand equity, with an 11% revenue growth in its latest quarter [9][10] - The company's revenue mix is heavily reliant on lending and interest income, which may limit its agility in adopting new payment technologies [11] - Growth for AmEx is more incremental due to its deep market penetration, making it challenging to achieve outsized growth without increasing credit risk [12] - Innovation at AmEx is characterized as measured rather than disruptive, which may restrict its competitive edge against faster-moving fintech companies [13] Comparative Analysis - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a projected 560% year-over-year earnings surge for Affirm in fiscal 2026, compared to a 15.4% increase for American Express [14][15] - Affirm trades at a higher price-to-sales multiple of 5.58X, reflecting its growth profile, while AmEx's multiple is 3.33X, indicative of its maturity [16] - Over the past month, Affirm has outperformed American Express, with a 14% increase compared to AmEx's 5.8% rise [18] Conclusion - While American Express provides stability and reliable cash flows, Affirm is positioned as the more attractive growth opportunity for 2026, driven by rapid revenue growth and an expanding merchant ecosystem [21]

Affirm Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:AFRM) is one of the best FinTech stocks to buy in 2026. On December 9, Wolfe Research initiated coverage of Affirm with a Peer Perform rating, arguing that while the company has multiple credible growth drivers, the stock’s valuation leaves limited room for near-term upside. The firm characterized Affirm’s business momentum as solid but said a more attractive entry point would be needed before adopting a more constructive stance on the shares. Wolfe highlighted several area ...

Affirm Holdings (NASDAQ: AFRM) is a fast-growing leader in the buy now, pay later (BNPL) sector, offering consumers flexible installment payments for purchases. The company's stock has been volatile this year, rising 137% from its April lows to close around $73 per share yesterday following an 11.8% jump. This gain followed one of Affirm's regular fireside chats hosted by CFO Rob O'Hare to address investor questions. The comments reassured investors about the underlying health of Affirm's business during a ...

Core Viewpoint - Affirm Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:AFRM) is recognized as one of the most promising fintech stocks, with analysts providing mixed but generally positive ratings and price targets, indicating potential for growth in the buy now, pay later (BNPL) market. Group 1: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Susquehanna reaffirmed a Buy rating on Affirm Holdings with a price target of $105 [1] - Wolfe Research initiated coverage with a Peerperform rating and a year-end 2026 fair value range of $72-$82, expecting fiscal year 2026 revenue less transaction costs (RLTC) to reach $1.95 billion, slightly above the Street consensus of $1.92 billion [2] - Freedom Capital Markets assigned a Buy rating with a $90 price target, viewing Affirm as a leading provider of BNPL options in the US [3] Group 2: Company Performance and Growth Initiatives - Affirm has made significant progress in profitability and growth through initiatives like 0% APR installment loans, the Affirm Card, and international expansion [3] - The company has experienced strong US market share growth, achieving GAAP profitability in the last three quarters, and is viewed as a "+mid-20s grower" with high-20s adjusted operating income margins [4] - Affirm's platform includes point-of-sale payment options, a consumer app, the Affirm Card, and merchant services, positioning it well in the fintech landscape [5]

Core Insights - SoFi and Affirm are both high-growth fintech companies aiming to disrupt traditional financial institutions, with SoFi offering a wide range of financial services and Affirm focusing on "buy now, pay later" solutions [1][2] SoFi Overview - SoFi has expanded its services from student loans to include mortgages, auto loans, personal loans, credit cards, insurance, estate planning, stock trading, and banking, positioning itself as a comprehensive digital financial platform [1][4] - The company targets younger, digitally native users and has grown significantly, quadrupling its member base from 2.5 million in 2021 to 10.1 million in 2024, with projections to reach 12.6 million by Q3 2025 [7][8] - SoFi's revenue and adjusted EBITDA are expected to grow at a CAGR of 27% and 44% respectively from 2024 to 2027, driven by its loan platform business, increased deposits, and new features [9] Affirm Overview - Affirm's BNPL platform caters to younger and lower-income consumers, offering microloans without compound interest or hidden fees, and has seen significant growth, with active consumers increasing from 7.1 million in fiscal 2021 to 23 million in fiscal 2025 [10][11] - The company has secured partnerships with major merchants like Amazon and Walmart, contributing to its gross merchandise volume (GMV) growth from $8.3 billion to $36.7 billion during the same period [11] - Analysts expect Affirm's revenue to grow at a CAGR of 25% from fiscal 2025 to 2028, with adjusted EBITDA projected to increase at a CAGR of 131% through 2028, supported by the growing usage of its Affirm Card and international expansion [14] Valuation Comparison - SoFi has an enterprise value of $32.5 billion, trading at 31 times this year's adjusted EBITDA, while Affirm has an enterprise value of $27.2 billion, trading at 24 times this year's adjusted EBITDA [15] - Despite both companies being strong growth stocks, Affirm is considered more attractive due to its narrower focus, superior growth rates, and lower valuations [15]

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) is rapidly expanding its merchant network, enhancing its position in the buy now, pay later (BNPL) market with a 30% year-over-year increase in active merchants to 419,000 in Q1 FY26 [1][8] Merchant Network Expansion - The expanding ecosystem allows AFRM to strengthen its presence in both small-ticket and big-ticket purchases, creating more opportunities for transaction volume growth and user engagement [2] - The flexible payment technology offered by AFRM aids merchants in improving checkout experiences and boosting conversion rates [2] Revenue Growth - Revenue growth is keeping pace with the expansion, with total revenues increasing by 34% year over year in Q1 FY26, supported by initiatives like the Affirm Card that promote deeper adoption and frequent usage [3][8] - Smaller purchases and interest-free plans contribute to user engagement, establishing long-term usage habits that are expected to enhance revenues as repeat customers and larger transactions increase [3] Competitive Landscape - Competitors in the BNPL space include Klarna Group plc (KLAR) with a merchant network of 850,000 and 3.4 million daily transactions, reporting a 28% year-over-year revenue increase in Q3 2025 [5] - PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) reported 438 million active accounts and a 7% year-over-year revenue increase to $8.4 billion in Q3 2025, with total payment volume rising by 8% [6] Valuation and Estimates - AFRM shares have gained 13.3% year-to-date, outperforming the industry average of 9.5% [7] - The forward price-to-sales ratio for AFRM is 5.09, above the industry average of 4.92, with a Zacks Value Score of D [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 earnings implies a 566.7% growth from the previous year, with a revenue growth estimate of 26% year-over-year [10]

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) is currently valued significantly higher than its industry peers, with a forward P/E multiple of 54.61X compared to the industry average of 34.17X, raising questions about whether the market is recognizing its growth potential or overvaluing it [1][4][21] - The company has shown a 27.8% increase in free cash flow over the past year, reaching $769 million, but its P/FCF of 30.78X is still above the industry average of 28.26X, indicating strong investor confidence in its growth prospects [2][4] - Analysts maintain a positive sentiment towards Affirm, with an average price target of $94.77, suggesting nearly 38% upside potential despite the high valuation multiples [4][21] Financial Performance - Affirm ended the latest fiscal quarter with $1.4 billion in cash and cash equivalents, a 5.5% increase from fiscal 2025, while its funding debt rose to $1.8 billion, resulting in a long-term debt-to-capital ratio of 70.62%, significantly higher than the industry average of 13.38% [8][21] - The company has achieved an 11.6% stock gain year-to-date, outperforming the industry average of 10.2%, although it still lags behind the broader S&P 500 Index [9][21] Competitive Landscape - Affirm faces intense competition from well-funded rivals like PayPal and Block, which are expanding aggressively into the BNPL space, supported by their established merchant networks [12][21] - A notable setback occurred when Walmart switched from Affirm to Klarna for its installment options, highlighting the rapid competitive innovations in the payments sector [13][21] Growth Potential - Affirm's growth narrative remains strong, with 96% of transactions in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 coming from repeat customers, indicating a solid user engagement strategy [15][21] - The company is expanding into everyday spending categories, with transactions increasing by 52.2% year-over-year to 41.4 million in the latest quarter [16][21] - The Affirm Card has emerged as a significant growth driver, with 500,000 new cardmembers added in the last quarter and GMV rising 135% to $1.4 billion [17][21] - International expansion is underway, with partnerships like Shopify entering new markets such as France, Germany, and the Netherlands, enhancing its network effect with 420,000 merchant partners and 24.1 million active consumers [18][21] Earnings Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts a nearly 567% year-over-year increase in earnings for fiscal 2026, reaching $1 per share, with revenue growth projected at 26% for fiscal 2026 and 22.8% for fiscal 2027 [19][20][21] - Affirm has consistently exceeded earnings estimates in the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 129.3% [20][21]

Summary of Affirm's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Affirm - **Industry**: Financial Technology (FinTech), specifically focused on consumer credit and installment loans Key Points and Arguments Holiday Trends - Affirm's holiday season performance is strong, particularly in the 0% loan segment, which has seen significant growth, especially among younger consumers prioritizing experiential transactions [4][14] Growth Metrics - Affirm reported a **42% growth in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV)** last quarter, with the Affirm Card contributing significantly to this growth [5][6] - The Affirm Card accounted for **15 points of growth**, representing about **one-third of total growth** [6][7] - The number of users for the Affirm Card increased by **500,000 quarter-over-quarter**, with a **12% attach rate** [10] 0% Loan Strategy - The 0% loan product has grown **74% year-over-year**, with the number of merchants funding these loans tripling to **40,000** [14] - Affirm emphasizes that 0% loans serve as a powerful marketing tool for merchants, offering a more cost-effective alternative to discounts [15][19] Risk Management and Credit Stress - Affirm can manage credit outcomes effectively, stating that a **50% increase in credit stress** would only lead to a **10% reduction in GMV** [49][50] - The company maintains that it can control credit loss through various levers, such as adjusting underwriting criteria [51] International Expansion - Affirm is optimistic about its international business, particularly in the UK with Shopify, although it acknowledges that it is still early in the process [30][31] Funding and Capital Markets - Affirm had a strong quarter in capital markets, pricing its latest ABS deal at the lowest average yield since 2022, indicating robust demand for its assets [38][41] - The company is focused on maintaining a diverse funding strategy to avoid over-reliance on any single channel [23][24] Margins and Profitability - Affirm has exceeded its adjusted operating margin outlook, with **incremental margins** showing strong performance, sometimes exceeding **100%** [34][35] - The company is committed to investing in growth while also focusing on improving GAAP profitability [36][37] Future Outlook - Affirm is exploring the potential for a broader banking experience but remains focused on its core credit products due to significant growth opportunities [55][56] - The company anticipates participating in the emerging trend of agentic commerce, which could enhance its market presence [58] Additional Important Insights - Affirm's approach to underwriting and credit management is designed to ensure consistent and repeatable credit outcomes, which is crucial for maintaining investor confidence [39][40] - The company is aware of the challenges in consumer banking and is open to addressing them in the future, but current priorities lie in enhancing its existing product offerings [57]

Core Insights - The payments landscape is undergoing a transformation with Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) becoming a popular financing option, challenging traditional credit card dominance [2][3] - Mastercard and Affirm are competing to shape the future of short-term credit in the digital economy [2][3] Mastercard Overview - Mastercard has a market cap of $489.4 billion and facilitates secure electronic payments globally, leveraging its network to support banks and merchants in providing installment solutions [5] - In Q3 2025, Mastercard's net revenues increased by 17% year over year, driven by strong consumer spending and cross-border volumes [6] - The company is investing in various innovative areas such as tokenization, cybersecurity, and AI-powered solutions to enhance its market position [7] - Mastercard maintains a strong cash position with $10.4 billion in cash and no short-term debt, allowing for share buybacks and dividends [8] Affirm Overview - Affirm is a key player in the BNPL space, focusing on transparency and data-driven underwriting, with features appealing to younger consumers [9][10] - The company reported a 34% revenue growth and a 42% increase in gross merchandise volume (GMV), expanding its ecosystem to 24.1 million consumers and 419,000 merchants [9][11] - Affirm's partnerships with major merchants enhance its market presence and allow for attractive financing options like 0% APR promotions [11] - The company utilizes AI for underwriting and customer support, contributing to its growth and efficiency [12] Financial Performance Comparison - Zacks Consensus Estimates predict Mastercard's 2025 sales and EPS growth at 15.8% and 12.6%, respectively, while Affirm's estimates indicate a 26% sales increase and a staggering 566.7% EPS growth for fiscal 2026 [14] - Year-to-date, Mastercard stock has returned 3.5%, while Affirm has outperformed with a 13% increase [15] - On a price-to-sales basis, Mastercard trades at 13.46X forward revenues compared to Affirm's 5.11X, indicating more room for growth for Affirm [16] Valuation Insights - Mastercard is currently trading below its average analyst price target of $659.38, suggesting a 21% potential upside, while Affirm trades below its target of $94.73, indicating a 37.7% potential upside [17] Conclusion - Both companies are strong players in the payment facilitation space, but Affirm's rapid user adoption and focus on BNPL innovation position it for greater long-term growth potential [18] - For investors seeking rapid gains, Affirm currently presents a more compelling opportunity compared to Mastercard [21]

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) is experiencing a high valuation with a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 5.12X, significantly above its three-year median of 4.08X and the broader industry's 4.78X, indicating that investors are pricing in an almost flawless future [1][2] - The company generated $769 million in free cash flow over the past year, marking a 27.8% increase, which reflects improving operational traction, although it trades at a price-to-free-cash-flow (P/FCF) ratio of 31.16X, higher than the industry's 27.25X [4] - Affirm's repeat customer transactions accounted for 96% in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, indicating strong customer loyalty and potential for sustained transaction growth [5][7] Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Affirm's fiscal 2026 earnings suggests a 566.7% year-over-year increase to $1 per share, with revenue projections for fiscal 2026 and 2027 expected to grow by 26% and 22.8%, respectively [10] - Affirm's Gross Merchandise Value is anticipated to exceed $47.5 billion for fiscal 2026, with the company beating earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, averaging a surprise of 129.3% [11] Market Position and Growth Strategy - Affirm has broadened its relevance in everyday spending categories, with active merchants increasing by 30% year-over-year to 419,000, supporting a 52.2% year-over-year jump in transactions to 41.4 million [6][7] - The Affirm Card is a strategic growth initiative aimed at becoming a primary access point for Affirm services, with 500,000 card members added in the fiscal first quarter [8] - The partnership with Shopify is set to expand into Europe, which is expected to enlarge the addressable market and diversify revenue streams, with active consumers reaching 24.1 million, a 24% year-over-year increase [9] Competitive Landscape - Competition in the buy now, pay later (BNPL) segment remains intense, with well-capitalized players like PayPal and Block expanding aggressively, and Walmart's shift to Klarna highlights the challenges in retaining major merchants [15] - Affirm faces rising operating expenses, which increased by 25.9% in fiscal 2023 and continued to rise in subsequent years, necessitating firm cost control to maintain margins [16] Financial Health - The company ended the fiscal first quarter with $1.4 billion in cash and cash equivalents, a 5.5% increase from the end of fiscal 2025, while funding debt rose to $1.8 billion, resulting in a long-term debt-to-capital ratio of 70.6%, significantly above the industry's 13.4% [17]