Summary of Affirm (AFRM) FY Conference Call - June 05, 2025 Company Overview - Affirm operates in the fintech industry, focusing on providing innovative financial solutions to consumers dissatisfied with traditional banking products [2][7] - The company aims to reinvent consumer credit, positioning itself as a modern alternative to credit cards [9][10] Core Points and Arguments Mission and Product Differentiation - Affirm's mission is to deliver honest financial products that improve lives, avoiding practices that are detrimental to users [7][8] - The company emphasizes a product model that avoids revolving debt, late fees, and hidden charges, contrasting sharply with traditional credit card systems [15][19] - Affirm's products are designed to be transparent, with no compound interest and quick amortization, which benefits both the company and consumers [16][17] Market Position and Consumer Trends - Affirm has over 20 million users, with a significant portion of consumers preferring Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) options over credit cards [20][21] - The company claims to capture about one-third of the Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) in North America and half of the revenue in the BNPL sector [26] - Affirm's growth rate in purchase volume has compounded at 48% since going public, with recent monthly growth rates exceeding 40% [24][25] Financial Performance - Affirm reported total revenue of approximately $3 billion on a trailing twelve-month basis, with a compounded growth rate of about 36% [42] - The company aims for a net revenue margin of 3-4% on GMV, currently running above 4% [45] - Affirm has shown meaningful growth in both adjusted and GAAP operating income, with a commitment to achieving GAAP operating profit [46] Consumer Demographics and Credit Outcomes - The typical Affirm consumer has an average FICO score of 652 and an average income of $74,000, aligning closely with the national average [51] - Affirm's delinquency rates are lower than those of major credit card issuers, even with a portfolio that includes 42% non-prime receivables [53] - The company attributes its favorable credit outcomes to advanced data science and machine learning capabilities, allowing for effective risk assessment [54][55] Competitive Landscape - Affirm does not compete on price but rather on the value provided to merchants and consumers, maintaining consistent merchant fees despite competitive pressures [57] - The company distinguishes itself from other BNPL players by not charging late fees or other hidden costs, and it actively reports to credit bureaus [58] Other Important Insights - Affirm's product offerings include flexible payment terms, interest-bearing loans, and 0% APR options, catering to a wide range of consumer needs [29][30] - The company has successfully integrated its services with major merchants, including a recent partnership with Costco, expanding its market reach [41] - Affirm's growth strategy includes expanding into international markets, with plans to launch in the UK and Continental Europe [49][48]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Affirm Holdings, Inc. is classified as a 'Buy' stock due to its growing success with the Affirm Card, an improving profit outlook, and an expanding total addressable market in the buy now, pay later industry [1] Group 2 - The buy now, pay later industry is experiencing growth, which is beneficial for Affirm Holdings, Inc. as it positions itself to capture a larger market share [1]

Core Viewpoint - Affirm Holdings, Inc. reported a fiscal third-quarter 2025 earnings of $0.01 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.09 per share and significantly improving from a loss of $0.43 per share in the prior-year quarter [1] Financial Performance - Total revenues increased by 36% year over year to $783.1 million, slightly missing the consensus mark by 0.1% but within management's expectations of $755-$785 million [1] - Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) reached $8.6 billion, climbing 36% year over year, exceeding both management's expectations of $8-$8.3 billion and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8.1 billion [3] - Total transactions surged by 45.6% year over year to 31.3 million, driven by a significant increase in repeat customer transactions [4] - Servicing income rose by 27% year over year to $32.1 million, beating the consensus mark of $31.3 million [4] - Interest income increased by 28% year over year to $402.7 million, although it fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $414.4 million [4] Revenue Breakdown - Merchant network revenues improved by 34.3% year over year to $214 million, surpassing the consensus mark of $199.5 million [5] - Card network revenues surged by 64.2% year over year to $58.6 million, attributed to higher usage of Affirm Card and virtual cards, exceeding the consensus estimate of $46.4 million [5] Expense and Losses - Total operating expenses rose by 7.4% year over year to $791.5 million, driven by increased costs in various areas including loan purchase commitments and technology expenses [6] - Provision for credit losses escalated by 20.3% year over year to $147.3 million [6] - Sales and marketing expenses decreased by 44.3% year over year [6] Profitability Metrics - Adjusted operating income totaled $173.7 million, more than doubling year over year, with an adjusted operating margin improving by 860 basis points to 22.2%, surpassing management's estimated range of 20-22% [7] - Affirm's net income was $2.8 million, a significant recovery from a net loss of $133.9 million in the prior-year quarter [7] Financial Position - As of March 31, 2025, Affirm had cash and cash equivalents of $1.4 billion, a 33.4% increase from the fiscal 2024-end figure [8] - Total assets rose by 9.6% year over year to $10.4 billion [8] - Funding debt amounted to $1.9 billion, up 3.9% from June 30, 2024 [8] - Total stockholders' equity increased by 5.2% to $2.9 billion [8] Cash Flow - Affirm generated $210.4 million of net cash from operations during the March quarter, reflecting a 1.1% year-over-year increase [9] Future Guidance - For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, Affirm forecasts GMV in the range of $9.4-$9.7 billion, up from the previous estimate of $9-$9.3 billion [10] - Revenues are anticipated to be between $815-$845 million, higher than the earlier guidance of $810-$840 million [10] - For fiscal 2025, management anticipates GMV to be in the range of $35.7-$36 billion, an increase from the earlier guidance of $34.74-$35.34 billion [12] - Revenues for fiscal 2025 are expected to be in the range of $3.163-$3.193 billion, up from the prior outlook of $3.13-$3.19 billion [12]

Core Insights - Affirm experienced significant growth in its fiscal third quarter, with gross merchandise value (GMV) and revenues both increasing 36% year over year to $8.6 billion and $783 million, respectively, although guidance indicates a slight deceleration in growth rates ahead [1][3][5] Financial Performance - The Affirm Card's GMV surged 115% year over year to $807 million, with 2 million active cardholders, contributing to a total of 21.9 million active consumers, up 23% from a year ago [6][1] - Revenues rose 36% to $783 million, with 0% APR monthly installments growing by 44%, accounting for 13% of the company's GMV [4][5] - Merchant counts increased by 20% to 358,000, while charge-offs are trending toward 3.5% and loss rates for Pay in 4 loans are below 1% [6] Guidance and Future Outlook - Guidance for the current quarter anticipates revenues between $815 million and $845 million, with a midpoint of $830 million, slightly below the Street's consensus of $840 million [7] - The company expects year-on-year growth of 34%, down from the 36% growth seen in the last quarter, with elevated growth rates observed in April [9] Macroeconomic Considerations - Affirm expressed confidence in managing various macroeconomic environments, anticipating increased demand for payment flexibility during stress scenarios [2][9] - The company estimates that in a recession scenario with a ~50% increase in credit stress, a reduction in approvals could cost about 10 percentage points of GMV growth [9] Consumer Behavior and Credit Reporting - Affirm noted healthy repayment rates and a slight uptick in prepayments, indicating positive credit signals [7] - The company highlighted the importance of credit reporting, stating that timely repayments help consumers build their credit history and improve their credit scores [10]

Core Viewpoint - Affirm reported stronger-than-expected earnings for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, but its revenue forecast for the fourth quarter fell short of analyst expectations, leading to a 10% drop in stock price during after-hours trading [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For Q3 FY2025, Affirm's earnings per share were $0.01, exceeding the expected loss of $0.03 per share, with a net profit of $2.8 million compared to a loss of $133.9 million in the same period last year [1]. - Revenue for the quarter was $783 million, matching expectations, and represented a 36% year-over-year increase from $576 million [1]. - The total Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) reached $8.6 billion, surpassing the market expectation of $8.2 billion, reflecting a 36% year-over-year growth [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Affirm's revenue forecast for Q4 is between $815 million and $845 million, with a midpoint of $830 million, which is below the expected $841 million, disappointing investors [1]. - The company anticipates Q4 GMV to be between $9.4 billion and $9.7 billion, with a midpoint of $9.55 billion, exceeding market expectations of $9.2 billion [2]. - Adjusted operating margin is expected to be between 23% and 25%, aligning closely with the market estimate of 23.8% [2]. Group 3: User Growth and Partnerships - The total number of active users has increased to 22 million, with 2 million new users added [2]. - The "Affirm Card" business saw GMV surge by 115% year-over-year, with the number of active card users doubling [2]. - Partnerships with major platforms like Apple, Amazon, and Shopify continue to drive transaction volume growth [2]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) announced the cessation of a regulation that increased compliance difficulties for BNPL providers, which is viewed as a positive development for Affirm and similar companies [2]. - The volume of 0% interest loans has increased significantly, rising 44% year-over-year, often subsidized by merchants to boost sales [2]. - Affirm's core "4-installment payment" product maintains stable credit quality, with a default rate below 1% [2]. Group 5: Stock Performance - Despite improvements in fundamentals, Affirm's stock has declined by 11% year-to-date, while the Nasdaq index has decreased by approximately 7% during the same period [3].

FY Q3 2025 Earnings Supplement May 8, 2025 Safe Harbor Statement/Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures Cautionary Note About Forward-Looking Statements 2 OUR MISSION This document contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"), and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, that involve risks and uncertainties. All statements other than statements of historical fact are forward-looking statements, inclu ...