Growing success with the Affirm Card, an improving profit outlook, and a growing total addressable market for the buy now, pay later industry underpinned my ‘ Buy ’ stock classification for Affirm Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: AFRM ) .A financial researcher and avid investor with a keen eye for innovation and disruption, as well as growth buy-outs and value stocks. Keeping an eye on the pace of high tech and early growth companies, I write about current events and the biggest news surrounding the industry, and st ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite recent growth in the Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) industry, concerns about future performance are rising among investors, particularly due to increasing default rates and a weakening economy [2][10][14]. Company Performance - Affirm Holdings' stock has decreased by 17% in 2025 following a prediction of lower-than-expected growth for the current quarter [2]. - In the last three years, Affirm's stock has increased by 126%, reaching $52 per share, while the industry has expanded at an annual rate exceeding 50% [3]. - The company's fiscal third quarter results showed revenue of $783 million, a 36% increase year-over-year, and earnings per share of $0.01, surpassing expectations [5]. - The fourth quarter revenue guidance is set at $830 million, which is $11 million below consensus estimates, while the gross merchandise value (GMV) guidance is $9.55 billion, exceeding expectations by $350 million [5]. Industry Trends - The BNPL market has grown significantly, with an average annual growth rate of 55% since 2021, expanding from $97 billion to an estimated $560 billion in 2025 [10]. - The rise in BNPL loans has led to increased investment in the industry, but also to rising default rates among major players [10][12]. - Nearly two-thirds of BNPL loans are issued to borrowers with risky credit scores, indicating potential credit quality issues [12]. Consumer Behavior - Affirm's business is closely linked to consumer spending in sectors like electronics, apparel, and travel, with a 10% growth in active customers reaching 22 million in the third quarter [6]. - The company has introduced 0% interest loans, which have increased by 44%, as a strategy to drive sales and enhance customer lifetime value [8][9]. Market Sentiment - Wall Street analysts view Affirm's stock as undervalued, trading 29% below the average price target of $67.18 set by 21 analysts [4]. - Despite concerns, some analysts remain bullish on Affirm, citing its leadership in the BNPL space and recent partnerships, such as with Costco [17].

Core Viewpoint - Affirm Holdings, Inc. reported a fiscal third-quarter 2025 earnings of $0.01 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.09 per share and significantly improving from a loss of $0.43 per share in the prior-year quarter [1] Financial Performance - Total revenues increased by 36% year over year to $783.1 million, slightly missing the consensus mark by 0.1% but within management's expectations of $755-$785 million [1] - Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) reached $8.6 billion, climbing 36% year over year, exceeding both management's expectations of $8-$8.3 billion and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8.1 billion [3] - Total transactions surged by 45.6% year over year to 31.3 million, driven by a significant increase in repeat customer transactions [4] - Servicing income rose by 27% year over year to $32.1 million, beating the consensus mark of $31.3 million [4] - Interest income increased by 28% year over year to $402.7 million, although it fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $414.4 million [4] Revenue Breakdown - Merchant network revenues improved by 34.3% year over year to $214 million, surpassing the consensus mark of $199.5 million [5] - Card network revenues surged by 64.2% year over year to $58.6 million, attributed to higher usage of Affirm Card and virtual cards, exceeding the consensus estimate of $46.4 million [5] Expense and Losses - Total operating expenses rose by 7.4% year over year to $791.5 million, driven by increased costs in various areas including loan purchase commitments and technology expenses [6] - Provision for credit losses escalated by 20.3% year over year to $147.3 million [6] - Sales and marketing expenses decreased by 44.3% year over year [6] Profitability Metrics - Adjusted operating income totaled $173.7 million, more than doubling year over year, with an adjusted operating margin improving by 860 basis points to 22.2%, surpassing management's estimated range of 20-22% [7] - Affirm's net income was $2.8 million, a significant recovery from a net loss of $133.9 million in the prior-year quarter [7] Financial Position - As of March 31, 2025, Affirm had cash and cash equivalents of $1.4 billion, a 33.4% increase from the fiscal 2024-end figure [8] - Total assets rose by 9.6% year over year to $10.4 billion [8] - Funding debt amounted to $1.9 billion, up 3.9% from June 30, 2024 [8] - Total stockholders' equity increased by 5.2% to $2.9 billion [8] Cash Flow - Affirm generated $210.4 million of net cash from operations during the March quarter, reflecting a 1.1% year-over-year increase [9] Future Guidance - For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, Affirm forecasts GMV in the range of $9.4-$9.7 billion, up from the previous estimate of $9-$9.3 billion [10] - Revenues are anticipated to be between $815-$845 million, higher than the earlier guidance of $810-$840 million [10] - For fiscal 2025, management anticipates GMV to be in the range of $35.7-$36 billion, an increase from the earlier guidance of $34.74-$35.34 billion [12] - Revenues for fiscal 2025 are expected to be in the range of $3.163-$3.193 billion, up from the prior outlook of $3.13-$3.19 billion [12]

Core Insights - Affirm experienced significant growth in its fiscal third quarter, with gross merchandise value (GMV) and revenues both increasing 36% year over year to $8.6 billion and $783 million, respectively, although guidance indicates a slight deceleration in growth rates ahead [1][3][5] Financial Performance - The Affirm Card's GMV surged 115% year over year to $807 million, with 2 million active cardholders, contributing to a total of 21.9 million active consumers, up 23% from a year ago [6][1] - Revenues rose 36% to $783 million, with 0% APR monthly installments growing by 44%, accounting for 13% of the company's GMV [4][5] - Merchant counts increased by 20% to 358,000, while charge-offs are trending toward 3.5% and loss rates for Pay in 4 loans are below 1% [6] Guidance and Future Outlook - Guidance for the current quarter anticipates revenues between $815 million and $845 million, with a midpoint of $830 million, slightly below the Street's consensus of $840 million [7] - The company expects year-on-year growth of 34%, down from the 36% growth seen in the last quarter, with elevated growth rates observed in April [9] Macroeconomic Considerations - Affirm expressed confidence in managing various macroeconomic environments, anticipating increased demand for payment flexibility during stress scenarios [2][9] - The company estimates that in a recession scenario with a ~50% increase in credit stress, a reduction in approvals could cost about 10 percentage points of GMV growth [9] Consumer Behavior and Credit Reporting - Affirm noted healthy repayment rates and a slight uptick in prepayments, indicating positive credit signals [7] - The company highlighted the importance of credit reporting, stating that timely repayments help consumers build their credit history and improve their credit scores [10]

不过，公司对第四季度GMV的预期为94亿至97亿美元，中值为95.5亿美元，高于市场预期的92亿美 元。调整后运营利润率预计在23%-25%之间，与市场预估的23.8%大致持平。Affirm重申其在2025财年 第四季度实现GAAP净盈利的目标。截至目前，活跃用户总数已增至2200万，新增用户达200万。 该公司主打的"Affirm Card"业务GMV同比暴增115%，活跃卡用户数量翻倍增长。公司与苹果 (AAPL.US)、亚马逊(AMZN.US)、Shopify(SHOP.US)等大型平台的合作持续推动交易量增长。今年6 月，Affirm与Apple宣布，未来美国的iPhone与iPad用户可在Apple Pay中直接申请Affirm贷款。 此外，消费者金融保护局(CFPB)本周宣布，将停止执行一项在拜登政府时期实施的监管规定，该规定 此前曾增加BNPL服务商的合规难度，这被普遍视为对Affirm等行业公司的利好消息。 报告显示，0%利息贷款大幅增长，同比上涨44%。这类贷款通常由商家或制造商补贴利息成本以促进 销售。与此同时，Affirm的核心"4期分期付款"产品信贷质量保持稳定，违约率维持在1%以下。 ...

Affirm (AFRM) Q3 2025 Earnings Call May 08, 2025 05:00 PM ET Company Participants Zane Keller - Director, Investor RelationsMax Levchin - Founder and CEORob O’Hare - CFOAdam Frisch - Senior Managing Director - EquitiesRamsey El-Assal - Managing DirectorWill Nance - Vice PresidentJames Faucette - Managing DirectorMatthew O'Neill - Managing DirectorKyle Peterson - Managing Director, Equity ResearchMichael Linford - COOGiuliano Bologna - Managing DirectorReggie Smith - Executive Director - Equity Research Conf ...

Affirm (AFRM) Q3 2025 Earnings Call May 08, 2025 05:00 PM ET Speaker0 Good afternoon. Welcome to the Affirm Holdings Third Quarter Fiscal twenty twenty five Earnings Call. Following the speakers' remarks, we will open the lines for your questions. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. A replay of the call will be available on our Investor Relations website for a reasonable period of time after the call. I'd like to turn the call over to Zane Keller, Head of Investor Relations. Thank you. Yo ...

FY Q3 2025 Earnings Supplement May 8, 2025 Safe Harbor Statement/Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures Cautionary Note About Forward-Looking Statements 2 OUR MISSION This document contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"), and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, that involve risks and uncertainties. All statements other than statements of historical fact are forward-looking statements, inclu ...