Welcome to Market Catalyst. I'm Julie Hyman. We're 30 minutes into the US trading day, so let's get to the pre-market catalyst we're watching this hour.First up, we'll push ahead to a big week for markets with jobs and inflation data on deck. Plus, we'll bring you the big takeaways from Super Bowl commercials and talk investing in women's sports with former NFL player and executive Jason Wright. And we'll have more on the state of the insurance industry after a $100 billion selloff.We're talking health insu ...

Amazon - Amazon plans to spend $200 billion this year on data centers, chips, and other equipment, leading to an over 8% drop in its stock, marking the largest decline since April of the previous year [1][2] - The company's operating income is projected at $21 billion, which is below consensus expectations, raising concerns about the trade-off between capital expenditures and profitability [1][2] - Analysts note that Amazon's capital expenditures are significantly higher than its peers, which may lead to negative free cash flow, but the company has historically delivered strong ROI despite similar cycles in the past [2][4] Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin experienced a volatile week, dropping nearly 13% before rebounding by about 10%, reflecting ongoing instability in the market influenced by geopolitical tensions [1][3] - The cryptocurrency market is characterized by fear, uncertainty, and doubt, with traders attempting to buy the dip amid fluctuating narratives about Bitcoin's value as a safe haven [1][3] Roblox - Roblox reported a 55% year-on-year growth in bookings, with 140 million daily active users, and a significant increase in engagement levels [2][3] - The company is focusing on expanding its user base, particularly among users aged 18 and up, which is growing at over 50% year-on-year [3][4] - Roblox is leveraging AI to enhance user experiences and improve safety measures, aiming to create a more engaging platform for its diverse user base [3][4] Affirm - Affirm's stock fell about 6% despite reporting results that beat estimates, with some analysts expressing concerns over a conservative outlook [4] - The company is experiencing significant growth with its Affirm card, which has seen a fourfold increase compared to the rest of the business [4] - Affirm's CEO emphasized the importance of transparency and affordability in their offerings, aiming to replace traditional credit cards with their debit card powered by Affirm [4] Warner Music Group - Warner Music Group's shares rose 5% following a 10% increase in its first-quarter revenue, driven by growth in digital and expanded rights and licensing revenue [7][8] - The company is utilizing AI to automate marketing efforts across its extensive catalog, aiming to increase efficiency and value in the music industry [7][8] - Warner Music Group believes that the value of music is currently undervalued and is focused on transitioning to licensed models to enhance revenue generation [8]

Key Takeaways AFRM delivered Q2 EPS of 37 cents, beating estimates as net revenues surged 30% year over year.Affirm saw GMV climb 36% to $13.8 billion, driven by POS integrations, wallet partnerships and DTC offerings.AFRM's adjusted operating margin expanded 300 bps to 30% on higher network revenues and servicing income.Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) posted second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings of 37 cents per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 32.1%. The metric rose 60.9% year over year.Net rev ...

BNPL Fintech Affirm Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: AFRM) unveiled its fiscal second-quarter 2026 earnings on February 5, 2026, showcasing impressive operational momentum despite broader market uncertainties. The San Francisco-based fintech reported revenue of $1.12 billion, surpassing analyst projections of $1.06 billion by approximately 5.7%.This marked a substantial year-over-year increase, driven by heightened consumer adoption of flexible payment options during a period of persistent inflation and cautious spen ...

Core Insights - Affirm's fiscal second quarter demonstrates the integration of buy now, pay later (BNPL) into everyday commerce, moving beyond occasional large purchases [1] Financial Performance - Gross merchandise volume (GMV) increased by 36% year over year to $13.8 billion, while revenue rose by 30% to $1.1 billion [3] - Active consumers grew by 23% to 25.8 million, with transactions per active consumer increasing by 20% to 6.4, and active merchants expanding by 42% to approximately 478,000 [3] Business Growth Drivers - Growth was fueled by point-of-sale integrations, wallet partnerships, and the direct-to-consumer business, particularly the Affirm Card, which saw direct-to-consumer GMV rise by 52% to $4.3 billion [4] - The Affirm Card's volume surged by 159% to $2.2 billion, with active cardholders more than doubling to 3.7 million, leading to card attach rates of about 14% [4] Zero-Interest Financing - GMV associated with 0% APR products grew by 60%, with over 60% of new customers opting for a 0% option for their first transaction [5] - Nearly 39% of all purchases during the quarter were interest-free, with around 60,000 merchants offering 0% APR deals, nearly quadrupling from the previous year [5] Consumer Credit Health - Thirty-plus-day delinquencies on monthly installment loans were at 2.7%, showing a year-over-year increase but a sequential decrease, while recent cohorts tracked toward approximately 3.5% net charge-offs [9] - Pay-in-4 losses remained below 1% of GMV, and the allowance for credit losses was consistent at 5.4% of loans held for investment [9] Technological Advancements - Affirm's AdaptAI and BoostAI systems are increasingly shaping financing offers and merchant performance, with BoostAI now operational across numerous enterprise merchants and small businesses [11] - BoostAI allows merchants to allocate additional funds for Affirm-specific promotions, optimizing conversion rates through automated A/B testing [12] Strategic Initiatives - Affirm expanded partnerships with major retailers and embedded pay-over-time options into QuickBooks Payments, while also testing rent-related use cases [12] - The company applied for an industrial bank charter to gain regulatory clarity, which is viewed as a long-term investment rather than an immediate growth driver [13] Future Projections - Affirm projected GMV for the current fiscal year to be between $48.3 billion and $48.85 billion, with revenue expected between $4.09 billion and $4.15 billion, indicating a deceleration from recent growth rates [14] - Operating margins are anticipated to improve in the second half of the year, despite a 6% drop in shares during after-hours trading [14] Overall Strategy - The quarter reflects Affirm's deeper penetration into everyday commerce, expanding distribution through the Affirm Card and partnerships, while enhancing automated decision-making processes [15]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported excellent results for Q2 of FY 2026, with significant growth in key metrics, although specific figures were not disclosed in the opening remarks [6][10]. - The company expects RLTC take rates to hover slightly above 4% for Q3 and Q4, indicating a stable margin outlook despite some year-over-year softening in revenue take rates [21][24]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Affirm Card has shown remarkable growth, with GMV up nearly 160% year-over-year and active cardholders increasing by 121% [61]. - The "other" category, which includes various smaller merchants, has grown to represent 15% of total GMV, indicating a diversification in the business [30][87]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing healthy consumer trends, with consumers showing a willingness to borrow and repay, contributing to stable growth in the current economic environment [18][19]. - The ABS market remains constructive, with recent deals priced with spreads under 100 basis points, reflecting strong market confidence in the company's credit outcomes [49]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its merchant base and diversifying its offerings, with plans to explore new verticals such as home improvement and medical services [110]. - The application for a bank charter is aimed at achieving regulatory certainty and unlocking new product opportunities in the future, although the timeline for approval is uncertain [38][72]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the current consumer health and the ability to manage credit effectively, with no significant deviations from previous quarters [18][97]. - The company anticipates a slowdown in GMV growth to 30% in Q3 and 25% in Q4, primarily due to the transition with a large retail partner [66]. Other Important Information - The company is actively monitoring regulatory developments, particularly concerning potential caps on BNPL rates, but has not seen any immediate threats [70][72]. - The partnership with Fiserv aims to integrate buy now, pay later capabilities into existing banking products, indicating a strategic move to broaden market reach [115]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Dynamics of growth with top merchants - Management noted that the top five merchants for Q2 FY 2026 are different from the previous year, and the business is diversifying well despite some concentration [10][14]. Question: Overview of consumer trends and economic health - Management indicated that consumers are healthy and willing to repay loans, with no significant changes observed in the current quarter [18][19]. Question: RLTC margin trajectory - Management expects RLTC take rates to remain slightly above 4% in the upcoming quarters, with benefits from reduced funding costs [21][24]. Question: Impact of competition on merchant pricing - Management stated that aggressive promotional strategies from competitors have not affected Affirm's pricing or market position [28]. Question: Growth in the "other" category - Management explained that the "other" category includes a diverse range of small merchants, which are increasingly recognizing the value of offering Affirm [30][33]. Question: Bank charter application rationale - Management clarified that the primary motivation for applying for a bank charter is regulatory certainty, with potential long-term benefits for product offerings [38][72]. Question: ABS deal execution - Management highlighted strong execution in the ABS market, with favorable pricing conditions reflecting confidence in the company's credit management [49]. Question: Growth opportunities in new verticals - Management discussed the cautious approach to entering new verticals, emphasizing consumer demand as the driving factor for expansion [110].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported excellent results for Q2 of FY 2026, with significant growth in key metrics, although specific figures were not disclosed in the opening remarks [6][10]. - The company expects RLTC take rates to hover slightly above 4% for Q3 and Q4, maintaining a similar trajectory to Q2 [21][23]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Affirm Card saw GMV year-over-year growth of just under 160%, with active cardholders increasing by 121% and 0% deals on the card rising by 190% year-over-year [61]. - The "other" category, which includes various small merchants, has grown to represent 15% of total GMV and is experiencing triple-digit growth [30][33]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is expanding its international presence, particularly in the U.K., with new partnerships and deals that are expected to scale up [62][63]. - The market for ABS deals remains constructive, with recent deals priced with spreads under 100 basis points, indicating strong confidence from investors [49]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on building a universal acceptance mark similar to Visa, aiming to be present in every retail environment, both online and offline [111]. - The decision to explore new categories such as home improvement and medical is driven by consumer demand and the desire to build a broader network [110]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the current consumer environment appears healthy, with consumers willing and able to repay loans [18]. - There are no significant deviations from previous quarters, and the company is not seeing disturbances in credit quality [97]. Other Important Information - The company has applied for a bank charter to gain regulatory certainty and potentially unlock new products and services in the future [38][39]. - The Boost AI product is still in early stages, with limited merchant adoption, but it is expected to enhance marketing effectiveness for merchants [48]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Dynamics of growth with top merchants - Management indicated that the top five merchants for Q2 FY 2026 are different from the previous year, and the business is diversifying well despite some concentration [10][14]. Question: Overview of consumer trends and economic health - Management stated that the current consumer is healthy and willing to repay loans, with no significant changes observed in the economic environment [17][18]. Question: RLTC margin trajectory - Management expects RLTC margins to remain around 4% for the remainder of the year, with benefits from lower transaction costs [21][24]. Question: Impact of competition on merchant pricing - Management noted that aggressive promotional strategies from competitors have not significantly affected Affirm's pricing or market position [27][29]. Question: Growth in the "other" category - Management explained that the "other" category includes a diverse range of small merchants, and growth in this area is driven by increased awareness of Affirm's offerings [30][33]. Question: Bank charter application - Management clarified that the bank charter application is primarily for regulatory certainty and not directly linked to short-term funding costs [38][110]. Question: ABS deal execution - Management highlighted strong execution in ABS deals, with favorable market conditions leading to lower financing costs [49]. Question: Fiserv partnership - Management discussed the partnership with Fiserv, aiming to provide Buy Now, Pay Later capabilities through existing debit card infrastructure [116].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported excellent results for Q2 of fiscal 2026, with significant growth in key metrics [4][10] - The RLTC take rates are expected to remain slightly above 4% for Q3 and Q4, with transaction costs benefiting from lower funding costs [21][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Affirm Card saw GMV growth of just under 160% year-over-year, with active cardholders increasing by 121% and 0% deals on the card rising by 190% [60] - The "other" category, which includes various small merchants, has grown to 15% of total GMV and is experiencing triple-digit growth [29][32] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is seeing healthy consumer trends, with consumers willing and able to repay loans, indicating a stable economic environment [15] - The ABS market remains constructive, with recent deals priced with spreads under 100 basis points, reflecting strong market confidence [48] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its network and aims to be universally accepted across various retail sectors, similar to major credit card brands [109] - The decision to explore new verticals such as home improvement and medical is driven by consumer demand and the goal of building a comprehensive service network [108] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the current consumer health and the ability to manage credit effectively, with no significant disturbances noted in the market [94] - The company is tracking regulatory developments closely but has not identified any immediate concerns regarding potential caps on BNPL rates [70][71] Other Important Information - The company has applied for a bank charter to enhance regulatory certainty and potentially unlock new products and services in the future [38][39] - The Boost AI product is still in early stages, but it is expected to enhance merchant engagement through automated A/B testing [46] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the dynamics of growth with the top five merchants? - Management noted that the top five merchants for Q2 of FY 2026 are different from the previous year, and the business is diversifying well despite some concentration [11] Question: What are the current consumer and credit trends? - Management indicated that consumers are healthy and willing to repay loans, with no significant deviations from previous quarters [15] Question: Can you elaborate on the RLTC margin trajectory? - Management expects RLTC take rates to hover around 4% for the remainder of the year, with transaction costs benefiting from favorable funding conditions [21][22] Question: How is competition affecting merchant pricing? - Management stated that aggressive promotional strategies from competitors have not impacted Affirm's pricing or market position [26][28] Question: What is the growth outlook for the Affirm Card and international expansion? - The Affirm Card is a significant growth driver, with plans for further expansion in the UK and other international markets [61][62] Question: What is the current state of the ABS market? - Management reported strong execution in the ABS market, with favorable pricing conditions and high confidence from investors [48] Question: How is the regulatory environment evolving? - Management is actively monitoring regulatory discussions but has not seen immediate threats to their business model [70][71] Question: What are the implications of entering new verticals? - Management clarified that new verticals are based on consumer demand and are part of a strategy to build a comprehensive service network [108]

This document contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"), and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, that involve risks and uncertainties. All statements other than statements of historical fact are forward-looking statements, including statements regarding: the Company's strategy and future operations, including the Company's partnerships with certain key merchant partners and commerce platf ...

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) has upgraded its credit risk evaluation by incorporating real-time financial signals into its underwriting process, enhancing the accuracy of credit assessments [1][9] - The new method is currently available for Affirm Card users and will soon be accessible to a broader audience who opt to link their banking data [2] - This approach allows Affirm to assess creditworthiness based on current financial health rather than outdated credit histories, potentially increasing consumer purchasing power [4] Group 1: Affirm's New Underwriting Process - Affirm's upgraded underwriting now includes real-time bank account balances and cash flow trends, moving away from static credit reports [1][9] - The new system aligns credit decisions with real-life financial situations, improving risk assessment and promoting responsible lending [3] - Early results indicate that this richer view of consumer finances can significantly enhance purchasing power [4] Group 2: Market Position and Performance - The upgrade is expected to improve Affirm's credit quality by reducing default risk and expanding its consumer base, leading to increased approvals and revenue growth [5] - Affirm's Gross Merchandise Value rose 42% year over year in Q1 of fiscal 2026, reaching $10.8 billion [5] - Affirm's shares have increased by 25.2% over the past year, outperforming the broader industry and the S&P 500 Index [7] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Competitors like PayPal and Block, Inc. are also expanding their BNPL services, with PayPal's total payment volume increasing by 8% to $458.1 billion and Block's BNPL gross merchandise volume climbing 17% to $9.7 billion [6] - The competition in the digital consumer lending space is intensifying, highlighting the need for innovative approaches like Affirm's [6] Group 4: Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Affirm's forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at 55.42X, significantly higher than the industry average of 31.72X, indicating a premium valuation [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts a 560% surge in Affirm's fiscal 2026 earnings year over year, followed by a 56.8% increase in the subsequent year [11]