ab 30 August 2025 First Read Alibaba Group 1QFY26 inline; outlook positive despite quick commerce investment Global Research 1QFY26 inline Revenue +2% YoY and adj. EBITA -14% YoY at Rmb38.8bn (see our quick take). We believe this set of result has addressed several key investor concerns 1) Management is confident on the CMR growth into Sep-Dec Q despite a high base (0.6% software service fee launched in Sep-24): On top of the increased penetration of Site Wide Marketing tool, the improved traffic in Taobao ...

Summary of China Cloud Market Research Industry Overview - The research focuses on the **China Cloud Market** with projections from 2020 to 2027, indicating significant growth in market size and revenue. - The market is expected to grow from **RMB 187.2 billion** in 2020 to **RMB 899.1 billion** by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately **14%** from 2023 to 2027 [3][3]. Key Market Data - **Market Size Projections**: - 2020: RMB 187.2 billion - 2021: RMB 262.3 billion (40% YoY growth) - 2022: RMB 393.2 billion (50% YoY growth) - 2023: RMB 500.2 billion (27% YoY growth) - 2024: RMB 589.1 billion (18% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 688.2 billion (17% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 790.8 billion (15% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 899.1 billion (14% YoY growth) [3][3]. Market Share of Major Players - **AliCloud**: - 2023: 21% - 2024: 20% - 2025E: 21% - 2026E: 22% - 2027E: 23% - **Tencent Cloud**: - 2023: 12% - 2024: 11% - 2025E: 11% - 2026E: 11% - 2027E: 12% - **Huawei Cloud**: - 2023: 11% - 2024: 12% - 2025E: 12% - 2026E: 14% - 2027E: 15% - **China Telecom**: - 2023: 19% - 2024: 19% - 2025E: 19% - 2026E: 18% - 2027E: 17% - **China Mobile**: - 2023: 17% - 2024: 17% - 2025E: 16% - 2026E: 15% - 2027E: 14% [3][3]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape shows that **AliCloud** remains the market leader, but its market share is declining, while **Huawei Cloud** is gradually increasing its share. - The **China Telecom** and **China Mobile** are also significant players, with their cloud services growing rapidly [5][5]. Benchmarking Against the US Market - The research indicates that the **China cloud market** has a potential **4x upside** when benchmarked against the US market, highlighting the disparity in cloud-related spending as a percentage of GDP [10][10]. - **Cloud-related spending** in China is significantly lower than in the US, suggesting room for growth in the coming years [10][10]. Margin Analysis - The margins of Chinese cloud operators are significantly lower than their US counterparts, indicating potential for improvement in operational efficiency and profitability [16][16]. Digitalization Trends - **Enterprise digitalization revenue** is outpacing traditional telecom service revenue, with a projected CAGR of **18%** from 2022 to 2024 for enterprise digitalization services [19][19]. - This trend indicates a shift in focus for telecom operators towards cloud and digital services, which are becoming increasingly important for revenue growth [19][19]. Conclusion - The **China Cloud Market** is poised for substantial growth, driven by increasing digitalization and cloud adoption across various sectors. - Major players are adapting to the competitive landscape, with a focus on enhancing service offerings and improving margins to capture a larger share of the growing market.

Alibaba Group 2025 AIC: Growth intact despite near-term margin volatilities Cloud: an accelerating growth trajectory Growth outlook: Management remains constructive on cloud outlook and is confident in an accelerating topline growth over next few quarters. This also echoes with the increased inferencing demand post DeepSeek launch. Growth is expected to be broad- based across verticals, with the increasing adoption in new verticals such as the conventional industries an encouraging sign. Margin outlook: Emp ...

ab 16 May 2025 Global Research First Read Alibaba Group 4QFY25 slight miss; thesis unchanged despite short-term margin fluctuation 4QFY25 slight missed Revenue +7% YoY, and adj. EBITA +36% YoY. Both missed by 1-2% (quick take). Key focuses 1) Taobao Tmall (TTG) outlook (mixed): Topline (+ve): CMR accelerated to +12% YoY (Dec Q's +9%), beat by 3%. For Mar Q, the take rate improvement (0.6% software service fee, and improving sitewide promotion tool adoption) and GMV mix shift to higher-commissioned Tmall (TT ...

Global Research ab 16 May 2025 First Read Alibaba Group 4QFY25 slight miss; thesis unchanged despite short-term margin fluctuation 4QFY25 slight missed Revenue +7% YoY, and adj. EBITA +36% YoY. Both missed by 1-2% (quick take). Key focuses This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Asia Limited. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 6. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its resea ...

Summary of Alibaba Group Holding Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Alibaba Group Holding - **Ticker**: 9988.HK (Hong Kong), BABA (US) - **Market Cap**: Approximately US$253.26 billion as of April 7, 2025 [4] Key Financial Estimates - **FY4Q25 Revenue**: Estimated at Rmb232.7 billion, representing a 4.9% year-over-year increase [3] - **Non-GAAP Net Profit**: Estimated at Rmb34.2 billion with a margin of 14.7% [3] - **TTG Revenue**: Expected to be Rmb97.9 billion, a 5% year-over-year increase [3] - **CMR Growth**: Projected to grow 8.1% year-over-year to Rmb68.7 billion [3] - **Cloud Computing Revenue**: Expected to grow 17.3% year-over-year to Rmb30 billion [3] - **Adjusted EBITA**: Forecasted to increase by 40% year-over-year to Rmb33.5 billion [3] Market Insights - **Share Price Correction**: The share price has corrected by over 20% recently, now trading at less than 10x 2026E EPS, which is considered attractive [1] - **Cloud Demand**: Anticipated growth in cloud revenues is expected to continue despite external demand challenges [1] - **Monetization Improvement**: Continued improvement in monetization rates is expected due to increased penetration of Quanzhantui and a 0.6% fee [1] Strategic Developments - **Cloud Technology Innovation**: Rapid progress in cloud technology and foundation model development is expected, despite tariff uncertainties [1] - **AI Integration**: The integration of AI technology into TTG is expected to support monetization improvements [1] Adjustments to Estimates - **Revisions**: FY4Q25 total revenues and non-GAAP net profit were adjusted by +0.7% and -3.8% respectively, reflecting higher assumptions on CMR and AIDC growth [2][48] - **Future Projections**: For 2025-2027, total revenues and non-GAAP net profit adjustments were +0.2%/-0.8%, +0.3%/-2.7%, and +0.1%/-2.5% respectively [49] E-commerce Insights - **User Growth**: The average daily number of first-time buyers on Taobao and Tmall increased significantly in early 2025 compared to the previous year [9] - **Investment in User Growth**: Taobao and Tmall plan to double their investment in user growth this year [11] - **New Product Launch**: Taobao launched "Tao Yanxuan," a high-quality consumer business focusing on domestic brands [12] Share Repurchase Program - **Repurchase Activity**: During the quarter ended March 31, 2025, Alibaba repurchased 51 million ordinary shares for a total of US$0.6 billion [45] - **Remaining Authorization**: As of March 31, 2025, the remaining amount for the share repurchase program was US$20.1 billion [46] Conclusion - **Investment Recommendation**: The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price adjustment to US$169/HK$165 [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month rating of "Buy" for Alibaba Group with a price target of US$176.00, up from a prior target of US$160.00 [5][10][31]. Core Insights - The management of Alibaba Group identifies capacity as a key constraint on growth, with a focus on monetizing AI capabilities primarily on the B2B side. The company is leveraging its QWen model for MaaS and has integrated LLM into various products [3][4]. - The report highlights strong growth potential in the cloud sector driven by digitalization in Chinese enterprises and SMEs, with expectations of margin improvements in the long term [3][10]. - The Taobao Tmall Group (TTG) is expected to benefit from a new software service fee and improved marketing tools, with a focus on user acquisition and enhancing customer experience [4][10]. Financial Metrics - Revenue projections show growth from Rmb941.17 billion in FY24 to Rmb970.25 billion in FY25, with net earnings expected to rise from Rmb158.36 billion to Rmb160.42 billion in the same period [7]. - The report anticipates a diluted EPS increase from Rmb62.23 in FY24 to Rmb67.18 in FY25, with a projected CAGR of 12% [7][10]. - The company's market capitalization is noted at US$331 billion, with a free float of 97% and an average daily trading volume of 3,609,000 shares [5][7]. Valuation and Returns - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, projecting a target price of US$176, reflecting an improved outlook for TTG and cloud growth potential [10][12]. - Forecasted returns include a price appreciation of 24.7% and a dividend yield of 1.2%, leading to an expected total stock return of 26.0% [12][10].