2025全球食品行业发展报告 全球食品体系正打破过去的模式。 三股颠覆性力量——消费者需求、供应链压力和新技术突破 ——正在重塑企业在五大互联生态系统中的运作方式：大宗农业、专业作物、蛋白、原料与制造， 以及分销。 对于食品和农企的领导者而言，这不仅仅是变化，而是一种新的运营现实。然而使命依旧不变：以 可盈利、可持续的方式种植、生产和分销食品。但工具却发生了巨大改变。 精准农业已在除草剂成 本上节省了 76%。餐饮业 50% 的任务可以通过机器人自动化完成。人工智能和生物技术的突破， 正在改造从农场投入到零售执行的每一个价值链环节。 具有前瞻性的食品体系领导者，正在围绕 速度、韧性和精准度 重新设计运营。这意味着要释放三 大增长引擎：自动化与数据整合、区域生产与灵活采购，以及以消费者为中心的产品创新。 这些主题在五大生态系统中表现各异。本报告重点探讨了以下三股力量如何重塑每一个生态系统： 在整个价值链上，利润空间正面临压力。对农民而言，投入成本大幅上升： 自 2020 年以来，化肥 成本上涨 78%，农药成本上涨 66%。 在杂货零售领域，自有品牌正在增长，美国 68% 的消费者 选择降级消费。然而，90% ...

Financial Performance - Elanco's Q2 2025 revenue reached $1.241 billion, a 5% increase compared to $1.184 billion in Q2 2024 [34] - Organic constant currency (CC) revenue growth was 8% [9, 11] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $238 million, compared to $275 million in Q2 2024 [34] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) diluted was $0.26, compared to $0.30 in Q2 2024 [34] Innovation and Portfolio - Innovation revenue contribution in H1 2025 was $420 million [9, 15] - The 2025 innovation sales target has been raised to $720-$800 million [9, 14, 15] - U S Pet Health segment experienced an 11% revenue increase [9, 32] Financial Outlook and Strategy - The company is increasing organic CC revenue growth guidance for 2025 to 5%-6% [10] - Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2025 is $850-$890 million [10] - Adjusted EPS guidance for 2025 is $0.85-$0.91 [10] - The company expects a $500-$550 million gross debt paydown in 2025, targeting a net leverage ratio of 3.8x-4.1x [9]

Core Viewpoint - Elanco Animal Health Incorporated appears to be turning a corner after years of market share losses and uneven execution, with a stabilized core business and promising innovation pipeline [1][2]. Business Performance - Investor meetings hosted by William Blair have led to an upgrade of Elanco's stock, highlighting the stabilization of the core business, which constitutes about 85% of sales, due to improved execution [2][3]. - The company's recent product launches in both livestock and pet health are expected to enhance growth, potentially contributing around five percentage points to overall growth in 2025 [4]. Product Pipeline and Innovation - Elanco's Zenrelia (ilunocitinib) received a positive opinion from the European Medicines Agency, with expectations for market approval and supply before the end of Q3 [5]. - New farm animal products like Bovaer and Experior, which currently face little to no competition, may increase demand for older products such as Rumensin [5]. Competitive Landscape - Elanco faces significant competition from larger, well-funded companies like Merck and Zoetis, which are also heavily investing in new product development [6]. - Merck's JAK inhibitor could impact the performance of Elanco's Zenrelia, as it is expected to have fewer safety concerns, while Zoetis has a strong track record of improving existing products [6]. Stock Performance - Elanco's stock is currently up 3.05%, trading at $14.18 [7].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fourth quarter revenue was $1.02 billion, representing a 1% reported decline, but organic constant currency growth was 4% [46] - Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $177 million, an increase of $12 million on a reported basis [54] - Full year adjusted EPS came in at $0.91 compared to $0.89 in 2023, reflecting a year-over-year growth [58] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total Pet Health revenue increased 6% in constant currency in the fourth quarter, with U.S. Pet Health growing 2% and international Pet Health growing 11% [47][48] - U.S. Farm Animal business achieved $223 million in sales, a 6% increase, driven by cattle market expansion [49] - International Farm Animal revenue was flat, impacted by the Kexxtone recall and strategic changes in certain geographies [50] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. dermatology market is projected to surpass $2 billion, with Zenrelia capturing significant market share [80] - The global carbon market for Bovaer is estimated to be $2 billion, with strong demand from farmers [38] - The U.S. dairy farmers earned approximately $10 million in credits from using Rumensin in the fourth quarter [39] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on growth, innovation, and cash generation, with expectations for 2025 organic constant currency revenue growth of 4% to 6% [12][73] - Strategic divestiture of the aqua business has allowed for debt reduction and increased investments in product launches [10][20] - The company aims to leverage its comprehensive portfolio to enhance market share in both Pet Health and Farm Animal sectors [22][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in accelerating fundamentals for 2025, despite challenges from foreign exchange impacts [14][72] - The company anticipates continued growth from innovation and a stabilization of its base business [13][42] - Management highlighted the importance of effective commercial execution and the positive reception of new product launches [72] Other Important Information - The company achieved a net leverage ratio of 4.3 times at the end of the year, down from 5.6 times at the start of 2024 [20] - The company launched five new U.S. product approvals in 2024, contributing to a robust innovation pipeline [28] - The company expects adjusted EBITDA for 2025 to be between $830 million and $870 million, factoring in foreign exchange headwinds [64] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the expected penetration of Zenrelia by year-end 2025? - Management indicated that Zenrelia is experiencing strong adoption, with a focus on increasing clinic penetration through aggressive sampling and direct-to-consumer efforts [81][84] Question: What factors contribute to the accelerating revenue growth in Q1 2025? - Management noted that the growth is driven by the ramp-up of Zenrelia and Credelio Quattro, alongside the absence of headwinds faced in the previous year [88][89] Question: What gives confidence in the innovation contribution for 2025? - Management highlighted strong momentum from products like Experior and AdTab, as well as the growth potential in the dermatology market with Zenrelia and Quattro [96][97] Question: How is the early launch of Credelio Quattro performing? - Management reported positive initial momentum, with strong veterinarian interest and a comprehensive commercialization strategy in place [115][116] Question: What are the dynamics behind the surge in Galliprant sales? - Management attributed the surge to its strong safety profile and effective marketing strategies, expecting continued performance into 2025 [120] Question: How does the company view the competitive environment in dermatology? - Management acknowledged competition as a headwind but emphasized the growing market and unmet needs that present opportunities for growth [125][126]