11 January 2026 | 4:02PM EST Commodities Research OIL ANALYST 2026 Outlook: Prices Trend Down on Strong Supply; Geopolitical Risks Remain Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)446-3905 | yulia.grigsby@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alexandra Paulus +1(212)902-7111 | alexandra.paulus@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and ...

消息面上，全球地缘政治风险继续升温。 俄乌方面，据央视新闻最新消息，当地时间1月12日凌晨，乌克兰首都基辅响起强烈爆炸声。此前，俄罗斯国防部11日通报称，过去一天，俄军对乌军工 企业等目标实施了打击。乌克兰武装部队总参谋部同一天通报称，对里海海域三座俄罗斯石油钻井平台实施了打击。 01:42 伊朗方面，据央视新闻报道，当地时间11日，伊朗官方信息称，伊朗全国范围已有111名安全部门人员在近期骚乱期间维持秩序过程中丧生。伊朗政府11 日宣布为骚乱期间死难的"烈士"举行为期三天的全国哀悼，并号召民众于12日举行游行以表达对"恐怖犯罪分子"暴力行为的谴责。 1月12日早盘，贵金属集体拉升。截至发稿，现货黄金升至4550美元大关，再创历史新高；现货白银涨幅扩大至2.79%。现货铂金涨近3%，突破2320.00美 元/盎司关口，最新报2327.80美元/盎司。 | | 国际贵全属 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | 伦敦金现 | 4550.368 | 41.388 | 0.92% | 5.38% | | 伦敦银现 ...

January 4, 2026 05:00 PM GMT The Oil Manual | Europe Outlook 2026: Letting the Curve Do the Work The expected surplus arrived in 2H25 and is likely to grow larger in 1H26. Rising inventories will require a steeper contango across the entire Brent curve, putting pressure on front-month prices. However, as the long-end is likely to stay resilient, spot prices should find support in the mid/upper-50s. Key Takeaways Exhibit 1: Including oil in transit, inventories built sharply in 2025, particularly in 2H. Thes ...

由于OPEC+为夺回市场份额而增产，全球原油产量或将超过需求，原油价格预计将大幅下跌。Vortexa Ltd.的数据显示，供应充足的迹象之一是，上周全球油轮上停泊至少7天的原油量激增15%，使原油总量 逼近去年11月创下的2020年以来的最高水平。 智通财经APP获悉，交易员们正在权衡从委内瑞拉到俄罗斯和伊朗的地缘政治紧张局势，油价因此保持 上涨。布伦特原油周一上涨2.1%后，稳定在每桶62美元附近，而WTI原油则高于每桶58美元。面对美国 的部分封锁，委内瑞拉已开始关闭其拥有全球最大油田地区的油井，该封锁限制了原油出口，导致当地 储油罐全满。另据报道，美国总统特朗普称，美国袭击了委内瑞拉境内的一处设施。 此前，俄罗斯总统普京表示，在其住所遭到无人机袭击后，他将调整谈判立场，这使得特朗普结束乌克 兰战争的努力面临新的阻碍。与此同时，特朗普誓言，如果伊朗重建核计划，美国将再次打击伊朗。 本周晚些时候将提供更多关于美国石油状况的信息，美国石油协会将于周二晚些时候发布库存变化预估 值。随后，周三将公布截至12月26日当周的官方数据。 Qisheng Futures分析师Gao Jian称："地缘政治动荡在很大程度上 ...

US stocks were little changed Friday, with traders on watch for more records as they return from the Christmas holiday for a single session ahead of the weekend. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), the S&P 500 (^GSPC), and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) all hovered near the flatline in thin post-Christmas trading. Meanwhile, precious metals continued a torrid rally, with gold (GC=F) and silver (SI=F) futures rising to fresh records amid fresh geopolitical tensions and continued weakness in ...

Key Takeaways from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the oil and gas industry, specifically the dynamics between Oil Services, Big Oil, and Exploration & Production (E&Ps) sectors - The preferred sector strategy is Oil Services > Big Oil > E&Ps, indicating a bullish outlook on Oil Services due to expected revenue growth and margin expansion [1][9] Core Insights and Arguments - **Brent Oil Price Forecast**: A forecast of $60 per barrel for Brent oil in 2026 is expected to create significant pressure on free cash flow (FCF) across sectors, with E&Ps facing the most strain, followed by Big Oils and then Oil Services [1][2] - **Revenue Growth**: European Oilfield Services (OFS) are projected to see a 5% year-over-year revenue growth in 2026, while Big Oils are expected to experience nearly flat production growth [1][9] - **Earnings Estimates**: The average year-over-year EBITDA growth is estimated at +5% for OFS, -4% for Big Oil, and -10% for E&Ps under the $60/bbl Brent forecast [2][9] - **Capex Trends**: Industry capital expenditures (capex) are expected to flatline, further squeezing FCF and impacting cash returns to shareholders, with Big Oil buybacks projected to decrease by nearly 25% year-over-year [2][9] Company-Specific Insights - **TotalEnergies (TTE)**: Identified as a top pick due to its resilience and undervaluation, with a breakeven oil price expected to decline through organic growth in oil and gas volumes [3][4] - **Galp**: Noted for its significant production growth, projected at over 10% in 2026, which stands out among European Big Oils [4][36] - **Saipem**: Expected to benefit from margin expansion and a strong order book, with a projected 20% year-over-year EBITDA growth in 2026 [26][28] Additional Important Insights - **E&P Sector Vulnerability**: The E&P sector is facing significant challenges, with many companies carrying high debt levels and cash flow break-evens above the $60/bbl forecast, leading to limited defensive options [24][46] - **Dividend Yields**: Some E&Ps are offering double-digit dividend yields as a form of protection against market volatility, with Ithaca Energy highlighted for its strong balance sheet and low break-even price of $45/bbl [45][46] - **Balance Sheet Pressure**: The overall balance sheet strength of Big Oils is under scrutiny, with increasing net debt levels despite asset disposals, indicating a need for more inorganic growth cushions [23][24] Conclusion - The oil and gas industry is navigating a challenging environment with a $60/bbl Brent oil price forecast, impacting cash flows and shareholder returns across sectors. Oil Services are positioned to perform better than Big Oil and E&Ps, with specific companies like TotalEnergies and Galp standing out for their growth potential and resilience.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the US equity markets and macroeconomic conditions leading up to the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting - The current environment is characterized by a resilient risk appetite despite headwinds from interest rates Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Performance**: US equity markets closed higher last week, supported by dovish expectations from the Fed. The Risk Appetite Indicator reached 0.66, marking the largest two-week increase since May [1][7] 2. **Mixed Macro Data**: - ISM manufacturing index fell for the ninth consecutive month - ADP reported the largest one-month drop in employment since March 2023 - ISM services index showed improvement - Core PCE inflation rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.83% year-over-year - Initial jobless claims decreased to 191k, below expectations [1] 3. **Upcoming Economic Reports**: Key data releases include the JOLTS report and the employment cost index, with expectations of 7,100k and a 0.8% increase respectively [1] 4. **Volatility in Q4**: Following a 'Goldilocks' backdrop of growth optimism and dovish Fed expectations, markets have experienced increased volatility in Q4, particularly in tech-heavy indices like Nasdaq [2] 5. **Bond Yields**: There has been upward pressure on bond yields, especially in Japan and Germany, with the 30-year JGB yield reaching 3.4%, a rise of approximately 110 basis points year-to-date [2][9] 6. **Central Bank Divergence**: The dispersion in G10 central bank pricing has widened, with more banks now anticipating rate hikes in 2026 [2][13] 7. **Investment Strategy**: The company maintains a modestly pro-risk stance into 2026, favoring equities over bonds, commodities, and cash, while underweighting credit [3][6] 8. **Market Expectations for Rate Cuts**: The market is pricing in a 55% probability of more than two rate cuts in the next 12 months [6][17] Additional Important Insights - **Sector Performance**: Growth-sensitive segments, particularly cyclicals and the Russell 2000, have shown strong performance recently [2][15] - **Global Economic Sentiment**: The sentiment indicators suggest a cautious but optimistic outlook among investors, with a notable focus on diversification and hedging strategies [3][27] - **Asset Allocation Recommendations**: The report includes specific asset allocation recommendations, indicating overweight positions in equities and underweight in corporate bonds [20] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the US equity markets, macroeconomic indicators, and strategic investment insights.

Investment Rating - The report suggests a bullish outlook on commodities, particularly recommending long positions in commodities and oil/energy as the best trades for 2026 [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift in market dynamics, indicating that commodities are outperforming bonds in the current inflationary growth environment, contrasting with the previous era of secular stagnation [2][3]. - It notes that LatAm stocks have increased by 56% year-to-date, indicating strong performance in the region [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring bond market reactions to the "run-it-hot" trade, as they pose a potential threat to stock and credit market upside in 2026 [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - Year-to-date performance shows gold at 59.1%, stocks at 19.6%, and commodities at 6.7%, while oil has declined by 16.8% [2]. - The report indicates that the biggest inflows have been into cash ($112.3 billion) and bonds ($15.4 billion), with a notable outflow from tech stocks [13][17]. Investment Strategies - The report advocates for long positions in commodities and oil/energy, viewing them as contrarian trades that are likely to yield positive returns in 2026 [3]. - It suggests tactical long positions in zero coupon bonds in anticipation of Fed cuts, while also recommending mid-cap stocks as a favorable investment due to their relative undervaluation [16]. Economic Indicators - The BofA Bull & Bear Indicator has decreased to 6.0, indicating a neutral sentiment in the market [60]. - The report notes that the current economic environment is characterized by rising bond yields in Japan and China, which are seen as secular floors for global yields [18]. Sector Analysis - Inflows into high-yield bonds ($2.3 billion) and emerging market debt ($2.4 billion) are highlighted, indicating a positive sentiment towards these sectors [17]. - The report also mentions significant outflows from tech stocks, suggesting a shift in investor preference towards more stable sectors [17][40].

Summary of Key Points from the Energy Outlook Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the energy sector, particularly oil and gas markets, with projections for 2026 regarding Brent and WTI crude oil prices, refining margins, and natural gas prices. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Oil Price Projections for 2026** - Brent crude is expected to average $60 per barrel, while WTI is projected at $57 per barrel due to a surplus of 2 million barrels per day (b/d) in the oil market [2][9][20] - Oil demand is anticipated to grow by approximately 1 million b/d, with non-OPEC+ supply increasing by about 800,000 b/d [2][9] 2. **Geopolitical Risks** - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Venezuela, Iran, and Russia, pose significant risks to oil supply and prices [2][3] - The potential for a spike in prices exists if geopolitical tensions escalate, but a peaceful resolution in Ukraine could lead to lower fuel prices [3] 3. **Refining Margins** - Refining margins are expected to remain strong in 2026, with ULSD-Brent cracks projected at $32 per barrel and RBOB-Brent cracks at $17 per barrel [4][9] - Limited refining capacity additions and ongoing military tensions are likely to support these margins [4] 4. **Natural Gas Market Outlook** - US natural gas prices are projected to average $4 per MMBtu in 2026, with a potential spike in European TTF prices if cold weather occurs [5][9] - US gas supply is expected to increase by 2.5 Bcf/d, driven by rising LNG exports [5][9] 5. **Economic Growth and Demand** - Global GDP is forecasted to grow by 3.3% in 2026, which should support oil demand growth despite potential economic slowdowns [3][9] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to be supportive for commodities, although energy markets will face challenges from excess supply and geopolitical risks [11][12] Additional Important Insights 1. **Strategic Inventory Accumulation** - China's strategic accumulation of oil inventories is likely to continue, which has kept oil markets tight despite excess supply [28][30] - This accumulation reflects a long-term strategy to mitigate geopolitical risks [28] 2. **Impact of OPEC+** - OPEC+ is expected to manage oil price volatility actively, which may create both a ceiling and floor on crude prices [20] - The organization’s self-interest in maintaining price levels is crucial, especially given rising borrowing requirements [3] 3. **Market Dynamics** - The report highlights that while oil prices are under pressure from excess supply, geopolitical shocks can lead to significant price fluctuations [20] - The balance of supply and demand remains loose, suggesting a bearish outlook for oil prices in the near term [20] 4. **Refining Capacity and Market Conditions** - The refining sector is facing challenges due to geopolitical tensions and limited capacity growth, which could support higher margins [4][9] 5. **Long-term Projections** - The report indicates that while immediate conditions may be challenging, the long-term outlook for energy markets remains influenced by geopolitical developments and strategic stockpiling efforts [11][12] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the energy outlook conference call, providing insights into the expected trends and risks in the oil and gas markets for 2026.

Commodity Outlook Summary Industry Overview - The report focuses on the commodities sector, highlighting trends and forecasts for various commodities including precious metals, industrial metals, energy, and agricultural products [1][2][3][10]. Key Themes and Forecasts 1. **Strong Performance Expected in 2026** - Commodities are projected to have another strong performance year, with the ICE MLCX TR index up 6% year-to-date, driven by gains in precious and industrial metals [1]. - Global GDP is forecasted to expand by 3.3% in 2026, with inflation expected to remain sticky at 2.9% [1][10]. 2. **Gold and Silver Outlook** - Gold prices could potentially reach $5,000/oz due to central bank and investor buying, supported by fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty [6][10]. - Silver demand may face headwinds from solar PV technology, but overall, both metals are expected to benefit from geopolitical risks and inflation expectations [2][10]. 3. **Industrial Metals Demand** - Industrial metals are expected to remain tight, with copper and aluminum likely to benefit from supply disruptions and stockpiling [2][10]. - The report anticipates a deficit in copper due to limited mine projects and outages at major mines [41]. 4. **Energy Sector Dynamics** - Oil prices are expected to average $60/bbl for Brent and $57/bbl for WTI in 2026, with a surplus in the oil market due to excess supply from OPEC+ [10]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly from Venezuela and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, could tighten the oil market despite the overall bearish outlook [2][10]. 5. **Agricultural Commodities** - A bearish outlook is maintained for wheat and soybean meal, while soybean oil is expected to see substantial upside due to strong demand [2][10]. - Agricultural commodities are influenced by robust supply growth and subdued demand, particularly in the context of ongoing geopolitical tensions [2][10]. Additional Insights - **Strategic Inventory Accumulation** - Strategic inventory accumulation, particularly by China, is expected to continue, supporting both energy and metals markets despite overall demand and balance conditions [52][53]. - The report notes that stockpiling has been influenced more by trade policy than geopolitical strategy in the metals sector [53]. - **Diversification and Inflation Hedging** - Commodities are increasingly viewed as essential for diversification and inflation hedging in investment portfolios, especially under current macroeconomic conditions [3][10]. - The report suggests that commodities could provide a unique hedge to traditional 60/40 portfolios amid rising inflation and geopolitical risks [3][10]. - **Market Risks and Opportunities** - Upside risks for commodities include potential geopolitical shocks and renewed demand from sectors like AI and defense spending, which could support industrial metals [41][10]. - Conversely, downside risks stem from excess supply in energy markets and potential economic slowdowns affecting demand [2][10]. Conclusion - The commodities sector is poised for a strong performance in 2026, driven by various macroeconomic factors, strategic inventory accumulation, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Investors are encouraged to consider commodities for diversification and as a hedge against inflation.