The yuan: China’s consumer-price index is almost exactly where it stood in mid-2022, and during 2025 the growth in prices was negative. Due to shrinking households stemming from the one-child policy enacted decades ago, China’s domestic economy is in a decline that cannot be reversed. GDP growth has shrunk to 5% currently from 8.6% at the beginning of this century.Cryptocurrencies: Among crypto’s many attributes, it has emerged as an uncorrelated hedge against a declining economy. But the bloom is off the r ...

Group 1: Dollar Index and Market Reactions - The dollar index (DXY00) is up by +0.17%, driven by weakness in GBP/USD and the yen, as UK consumer prices rose less than expected and Japanese fiscal concerns weigh on the yen [1] - The dollar is under pressure due to the Fed's liquidity boost, with the central bank purchasing $40 billion a month in T-bills starting last Friday [2] - Markets are concerned about President Trump's potential appointment of a dovish Fed Chair, which could negatively impact the dollar [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - Fed Governor Christopher Waller described the US labor market as "pretty soft" with close to zero job growth, while inflation remains "pretty well anchored" around 2% [3] - Interest rates are still 50-100 basis points above neutral, allowing the Fed to lower them steadily without urgency [3] - The market is pricing in a 24% chance that the FOMC will cut the fed funds target range by 25 basis points at the upcoming January 27-28 meeting [3] Group 3: Eurozone Economic Indicators - The euro (EUR/USD) is down by -0.04% due to a stronger dollar and negative Eurozone economic news, including a downward revision of November CPI and the smallest increase in Q3 labor costs in three years [4] - The unexpected decline in the German December IFO business conditions survey to a 7-month low is also bearish for the euro [4] - Divergent central bank policies support the euro, as the Fed is expected to continue cutting rates while the ECB is seen to have completed its rate-cutting campaign [5] - Eurozone November CPI was revised downward to +2.1% year-on-year from +2.2% year-on-year [5]

Core Viewpoint - The British Pound's rally ahead of the UK Chancellor's Autumn budget is expected to be short-lived, with a poor medium-term outlook for the currency [1] Political Uncertainty - Political uncertainty is identified as a significant downside risk for the British Pound, necessitating the market to account for potential political tail risks [1] Bank of England's Policy - The market is anticipated to price in lower terminal policy rates from the Bank of England, which could further impact the currency's performance [1]

Group 1 - Market sentiment is dominated by concerns over the economic impact of the US government shutdown, leading to a lack of rebound momentum for the dollar and strong fluctuations in gold prices within the $4150-$4200 range [1][3] - The absence of key economic data, particularly the October non-farm payroll and inflation figures, complicates the assessment of the economic situation, with economists estimating that the shutdown could reduce quarterly GDP growth by approximately 1.5%-2% [1][2] - The euro is experiencing mild fluctuations around 1.1650 as the market awaits revisions to the Eurozone's Q3 GDP and employment figures, while the British pound remains under pressure due to the upcoming budget announcement [1][2] Group 2 - Gold prices have recently broken through $4200, reaching a three-week high, but have slightly adjusted while remaining above $4150, supported by increased safe-haven demand and a weaker dollar [2][3] - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has decreased from 62% to about 50%, although the necessity for policy easing remains due to weakening economic momentum [2][3] - China's retail and industrial production growth rates for October were 2.9% and 4.9%, respectively, aligning with a steady recovery trend [2] Group 3 - The market is still processing the economic aftermath of the shutdown, with the lack of key data making growth prospects and policy direction harder to assess, resulting in continued weakness for the dollar [3][4] - Gold has established structural support in the $4150-$4200 range, maintaining bullish momentum as long as it does not fall below $4145, with further attention on potential resistance levels at $4245 and $4300 [4] - The dollar's trajectory will depend on whether the missing data can be clarified this week, which would directly influence market expectations regarding the December policy path [4]

Economic Impact of U.S. Government Shutdown - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is the longest in history and is negatively impacting the economy, leading to a flight to safe-haven assets [3][9] - Gold prices have surged to nearly $4,000 per ounce due to increased safe-haven demand amid economic uncertainty, with over 150,000 job cuts reported in October, marking the largest reduction in over two decades [4][9] Airline Industry Disruption - Major U.S. airlines, including American Airlines, United Airlines, and Delta Air Lines, have collectively canceled almost 600 flights due to air traffic control staffing shortages and operational challenges stemming from the shutdown [5][9] Trade Relations and Tariff Developments - President Trump indicated that a new plan may be necessary if the Supreme Court rules against his tariffs, which could lead to unwinding trade agreements and significant financial implications for the U.S. economy [6] - The U.S. and China have paused reciprocal tariffs on cranes and chassis, providing a 12-month reprieve on estimated fees of $3.2 billion annually for Chinese-built vessels, with Matson already incurring $6.4 million in fees since October [6][9] Geopolitical Strategies and Supply Chain Adjustments - Japan and the U.S. are collaborating to mine deep-sea rare earths to counter China's dominance in this sector, aiming to fortify supply chains [7] - President Trump is also seeking to strengthen economic ties with Central Asian nations, focusing on critical minerals to diversify supply chains away from China and Russia [8][10] Technology Sector Movements - The Nasdaq experienced a downturn due to renewed concerns over AI, leading to declines in major tech stocks such as Tesla, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Nvidia [11] - Hyundai Motor announced a partnership with a British AI startup to develop next-generation materials, highlighting the integration of AI across industries [11] Currency Market Developments - The British Pound has shown recovery against the U.S. Dollar, with the GBP/USD pair rising to 1.31, influenced by a dovish stance from the Bank of England regarding interest rates [12]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Federal Reserve - The dollar index rose by +0.31% supported by higher T-note yields and weakness in the British pound [1] - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari indicated support for two additional Fed rate cuts this year, influencing market expectations [3] Group 2: Eurozone Economic Indicators - The EUR/USD fell by -0.33% due to deflation concerns in the Eurozone and a stronger dollar [4] - German August PPI declined by -0.5% month-on-month and -2.2% year-on-year, marking the largest year-on-year decline in 15 months [5] Group 3: ECB Policy Outlook - ECB comments reflected mixed signals, with some members suggesting the need for further monetary easing due to below-potential growth and inflation concerns [6] - The divergence in central bank policies is limiting euro losses, as the ECB is perceived to be nearing the end of its rate-cut cycle while the Fed is expected to cut rates further [7]