Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for ANTA Sports [2][5] Core Insights - ANTA Brand experienced its first low-single-digit negative sell-through growth in 4Q25 after 11 consecutive quarters of positive growth, with offline sales declining and the children's category being a significant drag, although it still achieved a full-year low-single-digit growth target [3][10] - FILA Brand achieved mid-single-digit sell-through growth in both 4Q25 and for the full year 2025, with discounts deepening year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [3][10] - Management is cautious about 2026, planning increased investment in brand and marketing due to major sporting events such as the Milan Winter Olympics, World Cup, and Asian Games [3][10] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for ANTA Sports from 2025 to 2027 are RMB 78.26 billion, RMB 85.00 billion, and RMB 92.04 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 10.5%, 8.6%, and 8.3% respectively [5][12] - Net profit attributable to parent shareholders is projected at RMB 12.98 billion, RMB 14.34 billion, and RMB 16.24 billion for the same years, with year-on-year changes of -13.1%, 14.6%, and 13.8% respectively [5][12] - The corresponding P/E ratios for 2025 to 2027 are 16.0x, 14.5x, and 12.8x [5][12] Brand Strategy - ANTA Brand will focus on core positioning in running, training, and basketball, with continuous technology iterations for its running series [4][11] - FILA continues to emphasize product quality, achieving top sales in categories like down jackets and dad shoes during major sales events [4][11] - Descente has entered a steady growth phase, with over 240 stores and a stable store network, while KOLON's growth is driven by core stores and community activities [4][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the intense competition in the sportswear industry, leading to increased discounting practices that negatively impact profit growth and gross margins [2][4]. Revenue and Growth - In the first half of 2025, the four major sports brands in Hong Kong—Anta Sports, Li Ning, Xtep International, and 361 Degrees—achieved revenue growth, with Anta leading at 38.54 billion yuan and a growth rate of 14.26%. Li Ning, Xtep, and 361 Degrees reported revenues of 14.82 billion yuan, 6.838 billion yuan, and 5.705 billion yuan, with growth rates of 3.29%, 7.14%, and 10.96% respectively [4]. - Over the past three years, except for Anta, the other three brands have shown a decline in growth rates, with Xtep's revenue growth dropping from 14.76% to 7.14%, 361 Degrees from 18.00% to 10.96%, and Li Ning from 12.98% to 3.29% [4]. - Anta's revenue growth is primarily driven by its outdoor brands, while its main brands, Anta and FILA, have seen growth rates decline to single digits [4]. Online Channel Performance - Online channels have become a common growth highlight for the four companies, with Anta, Li Ning, and 361 Degrees reporting online revenue growth rates of 17.6%, 7.4%, and 45% respectively. Xtep did not disclose its overall online growth but noted that its main brand's e-commerce business grew and accounted for over 30% of total revenue [4][5]. - The online business expansion has negatively impacted gross margins, with Anta's gross margin decreasing by 0.7 percentage points to 63.37%, attributed to increased costs and discounts [5]. - Li Ning's gross margin fell by 0.4 percentage points to 50.04%, due to changes in channel structure and increased promotional discounts [5]. Profitability Analysis - Despite 361 Degrees experiencing a slight increase in gross margin by 0.2 percentage points to 41.5%, its net profit margin declined due to a significant rise in sales expenses, which increased by 13.2% to 1.037 billion yuan [6][7]. - Anta's net profit for the first half of 2025 was 7.031 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.9% year-on-year, while Li Ning's net profit fell by 10.99% to 1.737 billion yuan [7]. Industry Trends - The industry is witnessing a trend towards professionalization and specialization, with brands focusing on core categories and launching targeted products [9]. - The "big store" strategy is being adopted by all four brands, with flagship stores exceeding 1,000 square meters, offering a mix of sales, experience, and service [10]. - Overall, while the four major sports brands in Hong Kong reported revenue growth in the first half of 2025, they face challenges of differentiated growth rates and profit pressures, actively responding to industry competition through online initiatives, product segmentation, and channel upgrades [10].