CDC(可变阻尼减震器)

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保隆科技20250610
2025-06-10 15:26
Summary of Baolong Technology Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Baolong Technology - **Industry**: Automotive components, specifically focusing on air suspension systems and electronic shock absorbers Key Points and Arguments 1. **Revenue Projections**: Baolong Technology expects revenue from air suspension business to reach 2 billion in 2025, maintaining a gross margin of approximately 23%, contributing about 200 million in gross profit increment, driven by model updates and mass production from brands like Li Auto, BYD, and Xpeng [2][4] 2. **Market Penetration**: The penetration rate of domestic passenger cars for air suspension is expected to exceed 10%, indicating rapid industry growth [2][4] 3. **Development in Electronic Shock Absorbers**: The company is focusing on CDC (Continuously Damping Control) as a key product in electronic shock absorbers, which can increase the value per vehicle from 4,500 to 6,000, significantly enhancing revenue and profit [2][5] 4. **Tariff Management**: Baolong Technology has effectively transferred the tariff risks associated with U.S. exports to end consumers, mitigating the direct impact of high tariffs on profits, with only minor revenue impacts expected during shipment pauses [2][6] 5. **Sensor Business Growth**: The sensor business is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30-40% over the next few years, with expected revenue of approximately 670 million in 2024, and an increasing contribution to overall revenue [2][7] 6. **Overall Financial Expectations**: For 2025, Baolong Technology anticipates achieving around 9 billion in revenue and approximately 500 million in net profit, with a potential growth rate of 60%. In 2026, the annual growth rate is expected to reach 40%, particularly with high growth anticipated in the second quarter [2][8] 7. **Valuation and Risks**: The current valuation at 16 times earnings is considered attractive, but the company must be cautious of global trade fluctuations, changes in industry penetration rates, and significant increases in raw material prices [3][9] Additional Important Information - **Air Suspension System Progress**: The company expects to ship around 400,000 units of air suspension systems in 2025, despite market concerns regarding the air suspension industry [4] - **Complex Systems Development**: Baolong Technology is also researching more complex active shock absorber systems, which could further drive business growth [5]