11月12～14日，2025年中国国际内燃机及动力装备博览会如约而至。天润工业技术股份有限公司（以下简 称"天润工业"）在现场展示"动力核心部件的精密世界"，向业界宣告天润工业不仅继续深耕曲轴与连杆这一传 统优势领域，更以"四大集群"战略全面布局新能源、智能化、轻量化等前沿赛道，展现出从"隐形冠军"向"系 统解决方案提供商"跃升的雄心。 从"隐形冠军"到"系统解决方案提供商" 展会上，作为曲轴与连杆领域的国内领军者，天润工业的展台是专业观众关注的焦点。此次，天润工业带来 的并非单一产品，而是一个覆盖多应用场景、呼应未来趋势的精密制造产品生态。 在传统优势领域，天润工业展出了应用于大马力发电机组和船机的大马力曲轴及连杆。随着全球AI算力、数 据中心需求的爆发式增长，为大功率服务器集群供电的发电机组市场持续火爆。同时，全球航运市场的复苏 也带动了船用发动机需求。天润工业精准捕捉到这一市场脉搏，展出的大马力曲轴，最长可达4米，代表了国 内在该领域锻造与机加工的前沿水平。"目前国内能做到这么大规格、高精度曲轴的厂家屈指可数。"天润工业 新市场拓展部副部长苏冲介绍说："这不仅是尺寸的放大，对轴径、圆度、圆柱度的公差要求 ...

事项： 证 券 研 究 报 告 拓普集团（601689）2025 年三季报点评 强推（维持） Q3 业绩承压，机器人+液冷业务加速布局 公司发布 2025 年三季报，前三季度营收 209.3 亿元、同比+8.1%，归母净利 19.7 亿元、同比-12%，扣非归母净利 18.2 亿元、同比-10%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 26,600 | 30,157 | 35,150 | 42,669 | | 同比增速(%) | 35.0% | 13.4% | 16.6% | 21.4% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 3,001 | 3,064 | 3,751 | 4,724 | | 同比增速(%) | 39.5% | 2.1% | 22.4% | 25.9% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.73 | 1.76 | 2.16 | 2.72 | | 市盈率(倍) | 39 | 39 | 32 | 25 | | 市净率( ...

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates significant revenue growth in its suspension business for Q4, driven by high capacity utilization in its intelligent suspension and sensor operations [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The company expects a notable increase in suspension business revenue in Q4, contributing to overall performance improvement [1] - The full-active suspension business is projected to gradually generate revenue starting in the second half of next year [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The company forecasts that the domestic market penetration rate for air suspension systems will exceed 15% over the next two years [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a recovery in performance driven by the growth of its air suspension business, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 339 million, 413 million, and 538 million yuan respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 23.5, 19.3, and 14.8 times [3][4]. - The company achieved a revenue of 6.048 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.32%, although net profit was impacted by intensified price competition in the domestic automotive market [3][4]. - The company’s main business includes automotive intelligent driving systems and air suspension systems, with future growth expected from intelligent driving products and air suspension business [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 5.897 billion yuan in 2023 to 12.897 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% [4][29]. - The net profit is expected to fluctuate, with a significant drop in 2024 to 303 million yuan, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [4][29]. - The gross margin is forecasted to decline slightly from 27.4% in 2023 to 23.8% in 2027, indicating potential pressure on profitability [4][29]. Industry and Company Situation - The company is positioned in the automotive sector, focusing on intelligent driving systems and air suspension, with a market share of 19.7% in the air suspension segment as of August 2025 [3][4]. - The demand for intelligent driving products is expected to grow alongside the electrification and intelligence of vehicles, with a penetration rate of 52.09% for L2 and above intelligent driving in China as of Q1 2025 [3][4]. - The company’s TPMS business has a strong foothold with major global automotive manufacturers, benefiting from the increasing safety standards in the automotive industry [3][4]. Key Assumptions - The air suspension business is anticipated to grow significantly, with revenue growth rates projected at 49%, 76%, and 33% for 2025-2027 [3][4]. - The TPMS business is expected to maintain stable growth, with revenue growth rates of 22%, 23%, and 25% for the same period [3][4]. - The sensor business is projected to grow at approximately 18% annually from 2025 to 2027 [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed financial performance for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue growth but a decline in net profit, while also highlighting significant growth in its automotive electronics and liquid cooling businesses [1][5]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 20.928 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.14% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.967 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.97% [1]. - In Q3 alone, revenue reached 8 billion yuan, up 12% year-on-year, while net profit fell by 14% to 670 million yuan [1]. - The gross profit margin was 18.6%, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year and 0.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was 2.971 billion yuan, a significant increase of 161% year-on-year [1]. Business Growth - The automotive electronics segment is experiencing rapid growth, with the company successfully mass-producing various projects including air suspension systems and intelligent cockpit projects [2]. - The company has established a comprehensive self-research and innovation capability for closed-loop air suspension systems, with production capacity expected to increase to approximately 1.5 million sets by 2025 [2]. - The company is expanding its international strategy, with a production base in Thailand under construction to enhance its global footprint [2]. Technological Advancements - The company is focusing on the development of robotic actuators, which are critical components for robots, and has made significant progress in R&D for various actuator types [3]. - The company is also actively developing products related to liquid cooling technology, which is expected to become a new growth point due to the increasing demand for data centers and supercomputing [4]. - The liquid cooling business has already secured initial orders worth 1.5 billion yuan and is collaborating with major clients such as Huawei and NVIDIA [4][5]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for the company are estimated to be 30.3 billion yuan in 2025, 37.6 billion yuan in 2026, and 45.1 billion yuan in 2027, with net profits expected to be 2.82 billion yuan, 3.68 billion yuan, and 4.53 billion yuan respectively [5]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its growth potential in the automotive electronics and liquid cooling sectors [5].

Core Insights - Baolong Technology has transformed from a traditional auto parts manufacturer to a leader in automotive intelligence, leveraging its manufacturing capabilities in traditional components to enter emerging fields [2][3][4] Group 1: Company Background and Evolution - Baolong Technology, founded by Zhang Zuqiu and his team, has focused on producing small components like tire valves, achieving a production of approximately 260 million units annually [3][4] - The company has become the global leader in the tire valve market, emphasizing performance and cost efficiency [3][4] Group 2: Technological Advancements - Baolong Technology has developed a tire pressure monitoring system (TPMS) that has achieved a market share of 50% in China and 25% globally, despite entering the market later than international competitors [4][5] - The latest TPMS can monitor tire pressure and temperature in real-time and provide alerts for blowouts, significantly enhancing vehicle safety [5] Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - The company has achieved a nearly 30% market share in the air suspension sector within just three years, positioning itself as the second-largest supplier [6][7] - Baolong Technology employs a "co-opetition strategy," collaborating with international firms to enhance its technological capabilities while leveraging its advantages in the Chinese market [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is expanding its product offerings in the automotive sensor field, with over 40 applications across six categories, including speed sensors and rain sensors [5] - Baolong Technology is investing in high-end smart manufacturing bases in Shanghai and Hungary to support its global expansion and R&D efforts [7]

Core Viewpoint - Baolong Technology is facing significant financial challenges, including declining profitability and increasing debt levels, while attempting to expand into new business areas such as air suspension systems and sensors [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Baolong Technology's revenue increased by 24.1% year-on-year to 3.95 billion yuan, but net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9.1% to 135 million yuan [1]. - The net profit for the second quarter of 2025 was only 40 million yuan, representing a substantial year-on-year decline of 50.8% [1]. - For the entire year of 2024, the company's net profit fell by 20.14% to 303 million yuan, indicating a continuing downward trend into 2025 [1]. Profitability Concerns - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 dropped to 21.8%, a significant decrease of 5.37 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for the second quarter alone fell to 20.5%, down 4.4 percentage points compared to the previous year [1]. Debt Levels - As of the end of the first half of 2025, Baolong Technology's debt-to-asset ratio reached 67.95%, marking a new high and significantly exceeding the industry average [1]. Business Expansion and New Ventures - In 2024, Baolong Technology successfully issued convertible bonds to raise 1.39 billion yuan, with 1.04 billion yuan allocated for expanding air suspension system manufacturing and 350 million yuan for working capital [2]. - The new air suspension business generated revenue of 637 million yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 50.2%, while the sensor business revenue was 368 million yuan, up 18.7% [2]. - Despite the growth in new business areas, profitability has not improved, as these segments are still in the investment phase and have not yet achieved scale effects [2]. Market Risks - The automotive parts industry is experiencing rapid technological changes, and delays in project benefits, such as those from previous fundraising efforts, are concerning [3]. - The company faces risks from price wars in the automotive industry and uncertainties in the global trade environment, particularly regarding U.S. tariff policies [3]. - Baolong Technology is at a critical stage of business transformation, focusing on the mid-to-high-end new energy vehicle market, which presents long-term growth potential for its air suspension business [3].

Core Viewpoint - Top Group announced a change in the use of part of the raised funds and postponed adjustments to some fundraising projects to optimize resource allocation and better respond to market changes, aiming to enhance its competitiveness in the automotive parts sector [2] Group 1: Market Response and Industry Opportunities - The rapid development of the new energy vehicle market has led to an increasing penetration rate of air suspension systems in the passenger car market, with rising domestic production rates and decreasing costs. ASU, as a core component of air suspension systems, has significant market potential [3] - The intelligent door drive system is also experiencing growing market demand due to its user-friendly operation and high level of intelligence [4] - By reallocating funds towards ASU and intelligent door drive system projects, the company aims to capitalize on industry growth opportunities and enhance its product competitiveness in these areas [4] Group 2: Meeting Customer Supply Chain Needs - As a pioneer in large-scale production of closed air suspension systems in China, the company has established comprehensive self-research and innovation capabilities. Its air suspension system products are supplied to various automotive brands, including Seres, Xiaomi, and others [5] - With the rapid growth of the air suspension system business and the gradual increase in demand for intelligent door drive systems, there is an urgent need for capacity support for ASU and intelligent door drive systems from customers [5] Group 3: Resource Optimization and Investment Strategy - The company plans to control the construction pace of certain projects due to geopolitical factors and overseas market opportunities, while also increasing component production capacity in Anhui through the acquisition of Wuhu Changpeng Automotive Parts Co., Ltd [6] - The reallocation of funds towards the more urgent and promising intelligent manufacturing industrial park project will optimize resource allocation and improve the efficiency of fund utilization [6] Group 4: Intelligent Manufacturing Industrial Park Project - The intelligent manufacturing industrial park project, located in Ningbo, is expected to achieve an annual production capacity of 700,000 ASUs and 600,000 intelligent door drive systems after reaching full production [7] - The total investment for the project is approximately 1,092.55 million yuan, with 400 million yuan allocated from the raised funds. The project is expected to generate annual revenue of 3,090 million yuan and a net profit of 243 million yuan, with a post-tax internal rate of return of 21.43% and a payback period of 6.47 years [7]

Core Viewpoint - The actual controller of Top Group, Wu Jianshu, has reduced his holdings for the first time since the company's listing, with a total reduction of 13.43 million shares, accounting for 0.77% of the company's total shares [1] Shareholding Changes - Wu Jianshu and his associates, including Wu Haonian, Ningbo Zhuyue Investment Management Co., and Ningbo Paisha Real Estate Co., collectively reduced their shareholding from 59.25% to 58.48%, a change that triggers a 1% threshold [1][2] - The total cash raised from this share reduction is approximately 880 million yuan [1] Individual Shareholder Changes - Wu Jianshu reduced his shares from 11.99673 million to 8.99847 million, a decrease of 0.17% [2] - Wu Haonian's shares decreased from 1.982585 million to 1.487285 million, also a reduction of 0.02% [2] - Ningbo Zhuyue Investment Management Co. and Ningbo Paisha Real Estate Co. completely divested their holdings, reducing from 7.841064 million and 2.095395 million shares to zero [2] Company Overview - Top Group, founded in 1983, specializes in the research, production, and sales of automotive parts, with key products including NVH damping systems, interior and exterior trim systems, lightweight body components, smart cockpit parts, thermal management systems, chassis systems, air suspension systems, and intelligent driving systems [4] - The company has established an electric drive division to enter the field of intelligent robotics, marking a significant strategic initiative [4] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Top Group reported revenue of 12.935 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.83%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 11.08% to 1.295 billion yuan [4] - Revenue from the electric drive business reached 7.6583 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.12% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a focus on steady growth in the transmission system business and challenges in overseas revenue due to international geopolitical conflicts [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of approximately 432 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 1.47%, and a net profit of approximately 60 million yuan, down about 26.31% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, the company recorded revenue of approximately 237 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of about 2.73%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of about 20.78%. The net profit for Q2 was approximately 32 million yuan, down about 30.50% year-on-year, but up about 10.59% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Group 2: Business Segments - Domestic revenue in H1 2025 was approximately 259 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 12.32%. The domestic revenue from the transmission system was approximately 170 million yuan, up about 19.44%, accounting for about 65.45% of domestic revenue [2]. - Overseas revenue in H1 2025 was approximately 173 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 16.76%, primarily impacted by fluctuations in demand in certain overseas markets due to international geopolitical conflicts [2]. - The company's "Michelin" products achieved revenue of approximately 55 million yuan in H1 2025, a significant year-on-year increase of about 218.01% [2]. Group 3: Growth Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its transmission system business and entering new growth areas, including the automotive sector and non-automotive markets [3]. - A new production base for commercial vehicle components is planned in Jinan, Shandong, to support major clients such as Heavy Truck, FAW, and Beiqi Foton [3]. - A new intelligent chassis thermal control system production base is planned in Yuyao with an estimated total investment of no more than 1.5 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing production capacity for thermal management systems and air suspension systems [4]. Group 4: Future Projections - The company expects revenue growth from 1.135 billion yuan in 2025 to 1.691 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of approximately 19.7%, 21.1%, and 23.0% respectively. Net profit is projected to grow from approximately 191 million yuan in 2025 to 288 million yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of about 17.9%, 21.9%, and 23.8% respectively [5].