国泰着安期货 全国碳市场行情简报 (2025年第134期) 发布日期: 2025-08-08 周内日均成交超60万吨,CEA价格阴跌不止 今日 1、CEA:主力标的弱势震荡;挂牌26.9万吨,大宗10.0万吨 行情 (1)强制流通配额耗尽的节点或将成为碳价反转的现实支撑。预计到10月中上旬 强制流通配额才会耗尽。然而,预期交易可能会再次上演，这意味着Q3或许就 会看到碳价反转的迹象。 28月前,受强制流通配额释放缓慢和成交意愿不足影响，碳价或维持震荡。9 月起,随着履约压力逐步显现,上涨动能有望释放,价格可能趋势性回升。 1、企业非理性导致配额到期作废;2、企业不看好未来市场选择全部抛售变 风险 现;3、未考虑跨行业回购配额规避结转。 2、CCER:挂牌协议成交量0.07万吨,成交均价78.00元/吨（-5.33%） 策略 建议缺口企业在8月底前分批逢低采购 核心 逻辑 大宗协议成交量 0.00 10. 00 0.00 0. 00 0. 00 单项竞价成交量 0.00 0. 00 0. 00 0.00 0. 00 总成交额(万元) 146. 00 0. 00 0. 00 2114.01 437. 58 图表3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The national carbon emission trading market (CEA) has seen a continuous decline in prices, with the latest price at 68.46 yuan/ton, marking a 35.54% drop since reaching a peak of 106.2 yuan/ton in November last year [1][2][3]. Market Dynamics - The CEA price drop is attributed to a supply-demand imbalance and the digestion of policy expectations, with the market currently favoring sellers who lack trading enthusiasm, leading to decreased trading volumes [3][4]. - The trading volume in the national carbon market has been notably low, with 14 trading days this year recording zero transactions, which is unusual compared to previous years [2][3]. Policy and Market Expectations - The market's price fluctuations are closely linked to the compliance period, typically resulting in lower demand and prices post-compliance [3]. - The introduction of the "Interim Regulations on Carbon Emission Trading" and calls for market expansion have initially raised price expectations, but these have since been tempered as market expectations are realized [3][9]. Market Expansion - The national carbon market expanded in March, including industries such as steel, cement, and aluminum, which is expected to add 1,500 key emission units, covering over 60% of national CO2 emissions [3][9]. - Despite the expansion, there has been no corresponding increase in trading volume or market activity, leading to discussions about the potential need for financial institutions to participate in trading [3][4]. CCER vs. CEA Pricing - The price of CCER (China Certified Emission Reduction) has remained stable at 85 yuan/ton, approximately 24% higher than CEA prices, leading to a price inversion [7][9]. - The demand for CCER is driven by both mandatory reduction requirements and voluntary purchases for corporate social responsibility, resulting in a more stable price compared to CEA [9][10]. Future Outlook - The current price inversion between CCER and CEA is deemed unsustainable, as prolonged discrepancies may reduce demand for CEA [9][10]. - The differing market mechanisms of CEA (mandatory reduction) and CCER (voluntary reduction) suggest that fluctuations in one market will not necessarily stabilize the other [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The trading enthusiasm in the national carbon market reached a new high this year, and the comprehensive price of CEA remained firm [4]. - It is recommended that enterprises with quota gaps make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [5]. - The remaining 40% of mandatory circulation quotas in 2025 can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.4 - 0.5 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [6]. - After the CEA price dropped to around 70 yuan/ton, both rigid and speculative demands emerged, and the trading enthusiasm reached a new high this year. The bottom price of CEA in May may be raised to 60 - 65 yuan/ton. If the selling time of surplus enterprises is postponed, the lower the price bottom, the more limited the rebound height. If the single - day trading volume can significantly increase, the upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs CEA Market - **Prices**: The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 69.60 yuan/ton, 70.50 yuan/ton, 69.60 yuan/ton, 70.50 yuan/ton, and 70.50 yuan/ton respectively, with the CEA23 having a decline of - 0.01%. The new - old price differences were 0.90 yuan/ton, - 0.90 yuan/ton, 0.90 yuan/ton, and 0.00 yuan/ton respectively. The bulk transaction average price of CEA23 was 91.60 yuan/ton, and that of CEA24 was 70.37 yuan/ton [9]. - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volumes of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 0.00 million tons, 0.07 million tons, 0.00 million tons, 37.38 million tons, and 174.17 million tons respectively. The trading volumes of the listing agreement were 0.00 million tons, 0.07 million tons, 0.00 million tons, 2.59 million tons, and 30.75 million tons respectively, and the bulk agreement trading volumes were 34.79 million tons, 0.00 million tons, 0.00 million tons, 0.00 million tons, and 143.42 million tons respectively [9][10]. - **Total Transaction Amount**: The total transaction amounts of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 122603100 yuan, 33694800 yuan, 0.00 yuan, 52800 yuan, and 0.00 yuan respectively [10]. CCER Market - The average transaction price was 92.00 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change. The transaction amount was 0.22 million yuan, the trading volume was 0.00 million tons, and the cumulative trading volume was 175.00 million tons [11].