Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may support a carbon price reversal, with an expected depletion by mid - early October, but anticipatory trading could lead to signs of a reversal in Q3 [5] - Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate due to slow release of mandatory circulation allowances and low trading willingness; starting from September, as compliance pressure builds, prices may rise [5] - The report suggests that enterprises with a carbon allowance gap should make phased purchases at low prices before the end of August [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Carbon Emission Allowance (CEA) Market - CEA22 is stable, while the main target continues to decline. There are 160,000 tons for listing and 100,000 tons for bulk trading [3] - CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 have closing prices of 71.34 yuan/ton, 70.00 yuan/ton, 70.80 yuan/ton, 72.42 yuan/ton, and 72.47 yuan/ton respectively, with CEA23 and CEA24 having a decline of - 0.29% and - 0.48% [7] - The total trading volume of CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 are 100,000 tons, 56,900 tons, and 103,000 tons respectively [7] China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) Market - The listing agreement trading volume is 80,000 tons, and the average trading price is 80.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.53%. The trading amount is 6.5 million yuan, and the cumulative trading volume is 2.4808 million tons [3][9]

国泰着安期货 全国碳市场行情简报 (2025年第134期) 发布日期: 2025-08-08 周内日均成交超60万吨,CEA价格阴跌不止 今日 1、CEA:主力标的弱势震荡;挂牌26.9万吨,大宗10.0万吨 行情 (1)强制流通配额耗尽的节点或将成为碳价反转的现实支撑。预计到10月中上旬 强制流通配额才会耗尽。然而,预期交易可能会再次上演，这意味着Q3或许就 会看到碳价反转的迹象。 28月前,受强制流通配额释放缓慢和成交意愿不足影响，碳价或维持震荡。9 月起,随着履约压力逐步显现,上涨动能有望释放,价格可能趋势性回升。 1、企业非理性导致配额到期作废;2、企业不看好未来市场选择全部抛售变 风险 现;3、未考虑跨行业回购配额规避结转。 2、CCER:挂牌协议成交量0.07万吨,成交均价78.00元/吨（-5.33%） 策略 建议缺口企业在8月底前分批逢低采购 核心 逻辑 大宗协议成交量 0.00 10. 00 0.00 0. 00 0. 00 单项竞价成交量 0.00 0. 00 0. 00 0.00 0. 00 总成交额(万元) 146. 00 0. 00 0. 00 2114.01 437. 58 图表3 ...

Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that enterprises with a quota gap should make phased low - cost purchases before the end of August. The depletion of the mandatory circulation quota may support the carbon price reversal. With less than half of the 2025 mandatory circulation quota released, it's expected to be exhausted by mid - October. Anticipatory trading may lead to a carbon price reversal in Q3. Before August, the carbon price may fluctuate due to slow quota release and low trading willingness. From September, the price may rise as compliance pressure mounts, but price volatility may intensify in the second half of the year [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - CEA: The main targets showed mixed trends and were generally weak. The listed volume was 3.1 thousand tons, and the bulk volume was 0.0 thousand tons. The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 71.34 yuan/ton, 71.00 yuan/ton, 74.50 yuan/ton, 74.11 yuan/ton, and 74.50 yuan/ton respectively, with the CEA23's price dropping by 0.86% and CEA24 rising by 0.04%. The total trading volume of CEA23 was 2.11 thousand tons, and that of CEA24 was 1.00 thousand tons [3][6] - CCER: The listed agreement trading volume was 0.15 thousand tons, the average trading price was 83.05 yuan/ton (down 0.51%), the trading amount was 124,700 yuan, and the cumulative trading volume was 237,660 tons [3][8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent average daily trading volume is less than 600,000 tons, and the comprehensive price is approaching the expected bottom range [3] - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [3] - After the CEA price dropped to around 70 yuan/ton, both rigid and speculative market demands emerged, the market trading heat increased significantly, and the release of mandatory circulation quotas accelerated. The bottom price of CEA in May may be 65 - 68 yuan/ton [5] - Currently, the release ratio of mandatory circulation quotas is less than 20%, there is still potential selling pressure, the market price is oscillating at the bottom, and there is still a lack of upward driving force. If the selling time of surplus enterprises is postponed, the price bottom may be lower and the rebound height more limited. If the daily trading volume can significantly increase, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - CEA: CEA23 and CEA24 showed significant declines, while CEA22 had a slight rebound. The listed volume was 206,000 tons, and the bulk volume was 200,000 tons [3] - CCER: The listed agreement trading volume was 30,000 tons, and the average trading price was 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.03% [3] Strategy - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August. In 2025, the remaining 40% of mandatory circulation quotas can only meet part of the market demand, and about 40 - 50 million tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [3] Core Logic - After the CEA price dropped to around 70 yuan/ton, market demand increased, and the release of mandatory circulation quotas accelerated. The bottom price of CEA in May may be 65 - 68 yuan/ton [5] - The release ratio of mandatory circulation quotas is low, there is potential selling pressure, and the price is oscillating at the bottom. The selling time of surplus enterprises affects the price bottom and rebound height. If the daily trading volume increases, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [5] Data Tables - CEA price and trading volume data for different years are presented, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and trading amounts [7][8][9] - CCER trading information shows an average trading price of 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.03%, a trading volume of 30,000 tons, and a cumulative trading volume of 185,910 tons [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The trading enthusiasm in the national carbon market reached a new high this year, and the comprehensive price of CEA remained firm [4]. - It is recommended that enterprises with quota gaps make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [5]. - The remaining 40% of mandatory circulation quotas in 2025 can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.4 - 0.5 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [6]. - After the CEA price dropped to around 70 yuan/ton, both rigid and speculative demands emerged, and the trading enthusiasm reached a new high this year. The bottom price of CEA in May may be raised to 60 - 65 yuan/ton. If the selling time of surplus enterprises is postponed, the lower the price bottom, the more limited the rebound height. If the single - day trading volume can significantly increase, the upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs CEA Market - **Prices**: The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 69.60 yuan/ton, 70.50 yuan/ton, 69.60 yuan/ton, 70.50 yuan/ton, and 70.50 yuan/ton respectively, with the CEA23 having a decline of - 0.01%. The new - old price differences were 0.90 yuan/ton, - 0.90 yuan/ton, 0.90 yuan/ton, and 0.00 yuan/ton respectively. The bulk transaction average price of CEA23 was 91.60 yuan/ton, and that of CEA24 was 70.37 yuan/ton [9]. - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volumes of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 0.00 million tons, 0.07 million tons, 0.00 million tons, 37.38 million tons, and 174.17 million tons respectively. The trading volumes of the listing agreement were 0.00 million tons, 0.07 million tons, 0.00 million tons, 2.59 million tons, and 30.75 million tons respectively, and the bulk agreement trading volumes were 34.79 million tons, 0.00 million tons, 0.00 million tons, 0.00 million tons, and 143.42 million tons respectively [9][10]. - **Total Transaction Amount**: The total transaction amounts of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 122603100 yuan, 33694800 yuan, 0.00 yuan, 52800 yuan, and 0.00 yuan respectively [10]. CCER Market - The average transaction price was 92.00 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change. The transaction amount was 0.22 million yuan, the trading volume was 0.00 million tons, and the cumulative trading volume was 175.00 million tons [11].

全国碳市场行情简报 (2025年第70期) 国泰君安期货 发布日期:2025-05-08 成交量延续下滑,不同年份CEA价格走势分化 今日 1、CEA:CEA23小幅下跌,CEA24止跌反弹；挂牌5.62万吨，大宗10.00万吨 行情 2、CCER:挂牌协议成交量2.00万吨,成交均价91.01元/吨（-4.20%） 策略 建议缺口企业暂时观望,等待价格跌至合适位置再采购 3强制流通配额耗尽节点延后,上涨动能或出现在三季度末、四季度初;若盈余企业 卖出节点继续后移，价格底部越低,反弹高度越有限。 风险 1、企业非理性导致配额到期作废：2、企业不看好未来市场选择全部抛售变现；3、企 业2023年度、2024年度未足额履约;4、未考虑跨行业回购配额规避结转。 图表1:全国碳配额(CEA)最新行情信息-现货 | | CEA19-20 | CEA21 | CEA22 | CEA23 | CEA24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元/吨) | 73.00 | 70. 50 | 73.00 | 69.67 | 70. 59 | | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.00% ...

全国碳市场行情简报（2025年第67期） 看 女期货 发布日期:2025-04-30 市场成交量超80万吨,CEA大跌 今日 行情 1、CEA: CEA21、23、24大跌;挂牌10.63万吨,大宗71.23万吨, 2、CCER:挂牌协议成交量0.00万吨,成交均价96.13元/吨(1.19%) 策略 建议缺口企业暂时观望,等待价格跌至合适位置再采购 (1)2025年剩余40%强制流通配额只能满足部分市场需求,约0.4°0.5亿吨市场需求或 由盈余企业自愿卖出来满足。 2新纳入行业2024年度履约不设配额缺口,全国碳市场缺口略有下调,但对供需平 核心 衡影响有限;扩围方案带来短期情绪利空,或加速强制流通配额释放,综合价格5月 逻辑 底部区间50 60元/吨。 3强制流通配额耗尽节点延后,上涨动能或出现在三季度末、四季度初:若盈余企 业卖出节点继续后移,价格底部越低,反弹高度越有限。 1、企业非理性导致配额到期作废;2、企业不看好未来市场选择全部地售变现;3、 风险 企业2023年度、2024年度未足额履约;4、未考虑跨行业回购配额规避结转。 | 图表 1:全国碳配额(CEA)最新行情信息-现货 | | | | ...

全国碳市场行情简报 (2025年第63期) 国泰君安期货 发布日期:2025-04-23 币场成交下滑,CEA综合价格止跌 今日 1、CEA:CEA23止跌,其余年份配额暂无成交;挂牌11.65万吨,大宗0.00万吨 行情 2、CCER:挂牌协议成交量0.10万吨,成交均价95.00元/吨（-3.06%） 策略 建议缺口企业暂时观望,等待价格跌至合适位置再采购 (1)2025年剩余40%强制流通配额只能满足部分市场需求，约0.4°0.5亿吨市场需求或由 盈余企业自愿卖出来满足。 核心 逻辑 2新纳入行业2024年度履约不设配额缺口,全国碳市场缺口喀有下调,但对供需平衡 影响有限;扩固方案带来短期情绪利空,或加速强制流通配额释放,综合价格短期支 撑位76元/吨附近。 3强制流通配额耗尽节点延后,上涨动能或出现在三季度末、四季度初;若盈余企业 卖出节点继续后移，价格底部越低,反弹高度越有限。 风险 1、企业非理性导致配额到期作废；2、企业不看好未来市场选择全部地售变现；3、企 业2023年度、2024年度未足额履约;4、未考虑跨行业回购配额规避结转。 图表1:全国碳配额(CEA)最新行情信息-现货 | | 碳配额 ...

全国碳市场行情简报 (2025年第62期) 国泰君安期货 发布日期:2025-04-22 市场成交活跃，CEA综合价格大跌,试探下方支撑76元/吨 今日 1、CEA: CEA19-20补跌近9%, CEA22、23跌超1%: 挂牌24.6万吨, 大宗30万吨 行情 2、CCER: 挂牌协议成交量0.0003万吨,成交均价98.00元/吨（-2.47%） 策略 建议缺口企业暂时观望,等待价格跌至合适位置再采购 (1)2025年剩余40%强制流通配额只能满足部分市场需求，约0.5°0.6亿吨市场需求或由 盈余企业自愿卖出来满足。 核心 逻辑 2新纳入行业2024年度履约不设配额缺口,全国碳市场缺口喀有下调,但对供需平衡 影响有限;扩固方案带来短期情绪利空,或加速强制流通配额释放,综合价格短期支 撑位76元/吨附近。 3关注2024年度配额预分配期限前后（4月20日）的成交活跃度；强制流通配额耗尽节 点延后,上涨动能或出现在25Q2以后。 图表1:全国碳配额(CEA)最新行情信息-现货 | | 碳配额19-20 | 碳配额21 | 碳配额22 | 碳配额23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

全国碳币场行情简报 (2025年第58期) 国泰君安斯员 发布日期:2025-04-16 预分配临近,市场逐渐活跃,CEA价格弱稳 今日 1、CEA:CEA23弱稳运行,其余年份配额暂无成交;挂牌成交约10万吨,无大宗成交 行情 2、CCER: 挂牌协议成交量0.01万吨,成交均价93.8元/吨（-0.07%） 1、新行业配额方案超预期宽松:2、企业非理性导致配额到期作废;3、企业不看好未 来市场选择全部抛售变现;4、企业2023年度、2024年度未足额履约;5、未考虑新纳 风险 入行业配额结转。 图表1:全国碳配额(CEA)最新行情信息-现货 | | 碳配额19-20 | 碳配额21 | 碳配额22 | 碳配额23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元/吨) | 83. 50 | 80. 44 | 88. 00 | 82. 06 | | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -0.77% | | 新旧价差(元/吨) | | -3.06 | 7.56 | -5.94 | | 大宗成交均价(元/吨) | #N/A | #N/A | #N/ ...