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全国碳市场行情简报(2025年第161期)-20250923
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 12:11
全国碳币场行情简报 (2025年第161期) 建议缺口企业在10月底前分批逢低采购 策略 国家君安期货 发布日期:2025-09-22 今日 CEA价格继续下跌,活跃度大幅下降 1、CEA:价格继续下跌;挂牌19.3万吨,大宗10.0万吨 行情 2、CCER:挂牌协议成交量2.93万吨,成交均价78.14元/吨(2.80%) (1)强制流通配额耗尽的节点或将成为碳价反转的现实支撑。预计到10月强制流通配额 才会耗尽。然而,预期交易可能会再次上演,这意味着Q3或许就会看到碳价反转的迹 界。 核心 逻辑 29月起,重点排放单位陆续根据核定配额发放情况制定交易计划,强制流通配额加速 释放,碳价或承压运行。 大宗协议成交量 0.00 0. 00 10. 00 0. 00 0. 00 单项竞价成交量 0. 00 0. 00 0. 00 0. 00 0. 00 总成交额(万元) 0.00 270. 33 0. 00 0. 00 1345. 66 图表3:CEA大宗成交均价(元/吨) 图表2:CEA收盘价(元/吨) -碳配额21 ·碳配额19-20 碳配额22 ·碳配额21 几/吨 ·碳配额22 工/吨。 ·碳配额19-2 ...
全国碳市场行情简报(2025年第148期)-20250829
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 13:03
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The depletion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal, expected to occur around October, but anticipatory trading could bring signs of reversal in Q3 [6]. - Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate due to slow release of mandatory circulation quotas and low trading willingness. Starting from September, as compliance pressure mounts, prices may rise [6]. - It is recommended that deficit enterprises make phased purchases at low prices before the end of September [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Today's Market - CEA24 single - item auction was sold at the reserve price with a 95% unsold rate due to price - raising behavior yesterday [4]. - For CEA, the main targets declined to varying degrees, with 36.4 tons listed and 89.7 tons in bulk transactions [4]. - For CCER, the listed agreement trading volume was 0.24 tons, and the average transaction price was 80.97 yuan/ton, a 1.21% change [4]. Carbon Quota (CEA) Data | CEA Type | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Daily Change (%) | New - Old Price Difference (yuan/ton) | Bulk Transaction Average Price (yuan/ton) | Total Transaction Volume (tons) | Listed Agreement Transaction Volume (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CEA19 - 20 | 69.00 | 0.00% | - | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | | CEA21 | 70.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | | CEA22 | 69.72 | - 0.83% | - 0.28 | N/A | 1.05 | 1.05 | | CEA23 | 69.11 | - 0.59% | - 0.61 | 66.48 | 62.33 | 15.19 | | CEA24 | 69.42 | - 0.52% | 0.31 | 69.34 | 63.28 | 20.20 | [8] CCER Data - The average transaction price of CCER was 80.97 yuan/ton, with a 1.21% change, a trading volume of 0.24 tons, and a turnover of 19.11 million yuan. The cumulative trading volume was 250.40 tons [10].
全国碳市场行情简报(2025年第137期)-20250815
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 02:41
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may support a carbon price reversal, with an expected depletion by mid - early October, but anticipatory trading could lead to signs of a reversal in Q3 [5] - Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate due to slow release of mandatory circulation allowances and low trading willingness; starting from September, as compliance pressure builds, prices may rise [5] - The report suggests that enterprises with a carbon allowance gap should make phased purchases at low prices before the end of August [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Carbon Emission Allowance (CEA) Market - CEA22 is stable, while the main target continues to decline. There are 160,000 tons for listing and 100,000 tons for bulk trading [3] - CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 have closing prices of 71.34 yuan/ton, 70.00 yuan/ton, 70.80 yuan/ton, 72.42 yuan/ton, and 72.47 yuan/ton respectively, with CEA23 and CEA24 having a decline of - 0.29% and - 0.48% [7] - The total trading volume of CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 are 100,000 tons, 56,900 tons, and 103,000 tons respectively [7] China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) Market - The listing agreement trading volume is 80,000 tons, and the average trading price is 80.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.53%. The trading amount is 6.5 million yuan, and the cumulative trading volume is 2.4808 million tons [3][9]
全国碳市场行情简报(2025年第134期)-20250811
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 14:55
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may support a reversal in carbon prices. It is expected that the mandatory circulation allowances will be exhausted by mid - early October, but anticipatory trading may lead to signs of a carbon price reversal in Q3. Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate due to slow release of mandatory circulation allowances and low trading willingness. From September, as compliance pressure emerges, upward momentum may be released and prices may rise [6]. - It is recommended that enterprises with a carbon allowance gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Conditions - **CEA**: The main target is weakly volatile. There are 26.9 tons for listing and 10.0 tons for bulk trading. The daily average trading volume in the week exceeds 600,000 tons, and the CEA price has been falling. For different years' CEA, the closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 are 71.34 yuan/ton, 70.00 yuan/ton, 73.00 yuan/ton, 72.93 yuan/ton, and 73.20 yuan/ton respectively; the price changes are 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, - 0.27%, and 0.07% respectively; the total trading volumes are 0.00 tons, 0.00 tons, 2.00 tons, 6.00 tons, and 28.91 tons respectively [4][8]. - **CCER**: The listing agreement trading volume is 70,000 tons, the average trading price is 78.00 yuan/ton (-5.33%), the trading amount is 5.46 million yuan, and the cumulative trading volume is 2.4771 million tons [4][10]. Core Logic - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances is the realistic support for carbon price reversal. Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate, and from September, prices may rise due to compliance pressure [6].
全国碳市场行情简报(2025年第115期)-20250715
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 09:52
Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that enterprises with a quota gap should make phased low - cost purchases before the end of August. The depletion of the mandatory circulation quota may support the carbon price reversal. With less than half of the 2025 mandatory circulation quota released, it's expected to be exhausted by mid - October. Anticipatory trading may lead to a carbon price reversal in Q3. Before August, the carbon price may fluctuate due to slow quota release and low trading willingness. From September, the price may rise as compliance pressure mounts, but price volatility may intensify in the second half of the year [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - CEA: The main targets showed mixed trends and were generally weak. The listed volume was 3.1 thousand tons, and the bulk volume was 0.0 thousand tons. The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 71.34 yuan/ton, 71.00 yuan/ton, 74.50 yuan/ton, 74.11 yuan/ton, and 74.50 yuan/ton respectively, with the CEA23's price dropping by 0.86% and CEA24 rising by 0.04%. The total trading volume of CEA23 was 2.11 thousand tons, and that of CEA24 was 1.00 thousand tons [3][6] - CCER: The listed agreement trading volume was 0.15 thousand tons, the average trading price was 83.05 yuan/ton (down 0.51%), the trading amount was 124,700 yuan, and the cumulative trading volume was 237,660 tons [3][8]
全国碳市场行情简报(2025年第83期)-20250527
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-27 13:09
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent average daily trading volume is less than 600,000 tons, and the comprehensive price is approaching the expected bottom range [3] - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [3] - After the CEA price dropped to around 70 yuan/ton, both rigid and speculative market demands emerged, the market trading heat increased significantly, and the release of mandatory circulation quotas accelerated. The bottom price of CEA in May may be 65 - 68 yuan/ton [5] - Currently, the release ratio of mandatory circulation quotas is less than 20%, there is still potential selling pressure, the market price is oscillating at the bottom, and there is still a lack of upward driving force. If the selling time of surplus enterprises is postponed, the price bottom may be lower and the rebound height more limited. If the daily trading volume can significantly increase, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - CEA: CEA23 and CEA24 showed significant declines, while CEA22 had a slight rebound. The listed volume was 206,000 tons, and the bulk volume was 200,000 tons [3] - CCER: The listed agreement trading volume was 30,000 tons, and the average trading price was 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.03% [3] Strategy - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August. In 2025, the remaining 40% of mandatory circulation quotas can only meet part of the market demand, and about 40 - 50 million tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [3] Core Logic - After the CEA price dropped to around 70 yuan/ton, market demand increased, and the release of mandatory circulation quotas accelerated. The bottom price of CEA in May may be 65 - 68 yuan/ton [5] - The release ratio of mandatory circulation quotas is low, there is potential selling pressure, and the price is oscillating at the bottom. The selling time of surplus enterprises affects the price bottom and rebound height. If the daily trading volume increases, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [5] Data Tables - CEA price and trading volume data for different years are presented, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and trading amounts [7][8][9] - CCER trading information shows an average trading price of 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.03%, a trading volume of 30,000 tons, and a cumulative trading volume of 185,910 tons [9]
全国碳市场行情简报(2025年第81期)-20250523
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 10:57
Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: National Carbon Market Weekly Brief (Issue 81, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures [2] - Release date: May 23, 2025 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The recent average daily trading volume is low, and the trend of bottom - grinding through fluctuations is difficult to change in the short term [5] - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [7] Group 4: Market Conditions CEA - CEA22 has a significant decline, while other quotas are weakly stable. The volume of listed transactions is 15.64 tons, and the volume of bulk transactions is 42.00 tons [6] - CEA19 - 20 has a closing price of 69.50 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.14%, CEA21 has a closing price of 68.50 yuan/ton with no change, CEA22 has a closing price of 67.80 yuan/ton with a decline of 3.14%, CEA23 has a closing price of 70.53 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.10%, and CEA24 has a closing price of 70.73 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.18% [11] - The total trading volume of CEA19 - 20 is 0.20 tons, CEA21 is 0.00 tons, CEA22 is 1.50 tons, CEA23 is 11.07 tons, and CEA24 is 44.87 tons [11] - The total turnover of CEA19 - 20 is 3176.98 million yuan, CEA21 is 101.70 million yuan, CEA22 is 13.97 million yuan, CEA23 is 897.26 million yuan, and CEA24 is 0.00 million yuan [12] CCER - The volume of listed agreement transactions is 3.50 tons, and the average transaction price is 90.00 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3.82%. The turnover is 315.36 million yuan, and the cumulative trading volume is 179.41 tons [6][13] Group 5: Strategy - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August. In 2025, the remaining 40% of the mandatory circulation quota can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.4 - 0.5 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [7] Group 6: Core Logic - After the CEA price drops to around 70 yuan, both the rigid demand and speculative demand in the market appear, the market trading enthusiasm significantly increases, and the release of the mandatory circulation quota accelerates. The bottom of the CEA comprehensive price in May may be 65 - 68 yuan/ton [9] - Currently, the release ratio of the mandatory circulation quota is less than 20%, and there is still potential selling pressure. The market price is bottom - grinding through fluctuations and still lacks upward driving force. If the selling time of surplus enterprises is postponed, the price bottom may be lower and the rebound height may be more limited. If the daily trading volume can significantly increase, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [9]
全国碳市场行情简报(2025年第73期)-20250513
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 11:55
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The trading enthusiasm in the national carbon market reached a new high this year, and the comprehensive price of CEA remained firm [4]. - It is recommended that enterprises with quota gaps make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [5]. - The remaining 40% of mandatory circulation quotas in 2025 can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.4 - 0.5 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [6]. - After the CEA price dropped to around 70 yuan/ton, both rigid and speculative demands emerged, and the trading enthusiasm reached a new high this year. The bottom price of CEA in May may be raised to 60 - 65 yuan/ton. If the selling time of surplus enterprises is postponed, the lower the price bottom, the more limited the rebound height. If the single - day trading volume can significantly increase, the upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs CEA Market - **Prices**: The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 69.60 yuan/ton, 70.50 yuan/ton, 69.60 yuan/ton, 70.50 yuan/ton, and 70.50 yuan/ton respectively, with the CEA23 having a decline of - 0.01%. The new - old price differences were 0.90 yuan/ton, - 0.90 yuan/ton, 0.90 yuan/ton, and 0.00 yuan/ton respectively. The bulk transaction average price of CEA23 was 91.60 yuan/ton, and that of CEA24 was 70.37 yuan/ton [9]. - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volumes of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 0.00 million tons, 0.07 million tons, 0.00 million tons, 37.38 million tons, and 174.17 million tons respectively. The trading volumes of the listing agreement were 0.00 million tons, 0.07 million tons, 0.00 million tons, 2.59 million tons, and 30.75 million tons respectively, and the bulk agreement trading volumes were 34.79 million tons, 0.00 million tons, 0.00 million tons, 0.00 million tons, and 143.42 million tons respectively [9][10]. - **Total Transaction Amount**: The total transaction amounts of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 122603100 yuan, 33694800 yuan, 0.00 yuan, 52800 yuan, and 0.00 yuan respectively [10]. CCER Market - The average transaction price was 92.00 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change. The transaction amount was 0.22 million yuan, the trading volume was 0.00 million tons, and the cumulative trading volume was 175.00 million tons [11].
全国碳市场行情简报(2025年第70期)-20250508
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 12:20
全国碳市场行情简报 (2025年第70期) 国泰君安期货 发布日期:2025-05-08 成交量延续下滑,不同年份CEA价格走势分化 今日 1、CEA:CEA23小幅下跌,CEA24止跌反弹;挂牌5.62万吨,大宗10.00万吨 行情 2、CCER:挂牌协议成交量2.00万吨,成交均价91.01元/吨(-4.20%) 策略 建议缺口企业暂时观望,等待价格跌至合适位置再采购 3强制流通配额耗尽节点延后,上涨动能或出现在三季度末、四季度初;若盈余企业 卖出节点继续后移,价格底部越低,反弹高度越有限。 风险 1、企业非理性导致配额到期作废:2、企业不看好未来市场选择全部抛售变现;3、企 业2023年度、2024年度未足额履约;4、未考虑跨行业回购配额规避结转。 图表1:全国碳配额(CEA)最新行情信息-现货 | | CEA19-20 | CEA21 | CEA22 | CEA23 | CEA24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元/吨) | 73.00 | 70. 50 | 73.00 | 69.67 | 70. 59 | | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.00% ...
全国碳市场行情简报-20250501
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-01 01:42
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market trading volume exceeded 800,000 tons, with CEA experiencing a significant decline [3]. - It is recommended that companies with a quota gap wait and observe, and purchase when the price drops to an appropriate level [3]. - The remaining 40% of the mandatory circulation quota in 2025 can only meet part of the market demand, and about 40 - 50 million tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [3]. - The new - included industries have no quota gap for the 2024 annual compliance, and the quota gap in the national carbon market has been slightly reduced, but it has limited impact on the supply - demand balance. The expansion plan brings short - term negative sentiment and may accelerate the release of mandatory circulation quotas. The bottom price range in May is 50 - 60 yuan/ton [3]. - The exhaustion node of the mandatory circulation quota is postponed, and the upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter. If the selling node of surplus enterprises continues to move backward, the lower the price bottom, the more limited the rebound height [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - **CEA**: CEA21, CEA23, and CEA24 saw significant declines. The listed volume was 106,300 tons, and the bulk volume was 712,300 tons. The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 73.00 yuan/ton, 70.50 yuan/ton, 73.00 yuan/ton, 70.80 yuan/ton, and 70.00 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0.00%, - 3.42%, 0.00%, - 2.71%, and - 4.33% [3][4]. - **CCER**: The listed agreement trading volume was 0.00 tons, the average trading price was 96.13 yuan/ton (a 1.19% increase), the trading volume was 0.00 tons, the turnover was 250,000 yuan, and the cumulative trading volume was 1,689,800 tons [3][5]. Strategy - It is recommended that companies with a quota gap wait and observe, and purchase when the price drops to an appropriate level [3]. Core Logic - The remaining 40% of the mandatory circulation quota in 2025 can only meet part of the market demand, and about 40 - 50 million tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [3]. - The new - included industries have no quota gap for the 2024 annual compliance, and the quota gap in the national carbon market has been slightly reduced, but it has limited impact on the supply - demand balance. The expansion plan brings short - term negative sentiment and may accelerate the release of mandatory circulation quotas. The bottom price range in May is 50 - 60 yuan/ton [3]. - The exhaustion node of the mandatory circulation quota is postponed, and the upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter. If the selling node of surplus enterprises continues to move backward, the lower the price bottom, the more limited the rebound height [3].