Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - As the compliance pressure gradually emerges and the mandatory circulation quotas are basically released, the upward momentum of carbon prices begins to accumulate, and carbon prices may enter a stage of trend recovery [4] - The quota base carry - over amount for the steel, cement, and electrolytic aluminum industries has increased to 100,000 tons. However, due to the limited quota gap (within 3%) in 2025 for most enterprises, the actual procurement enthusiasm may be lower than expected [4] - Recently, some newly included industry enterprises have successively started basic carry - over procurement. Attention should be paid to whether the price can stabilize above 70 yuan/ton [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - The average price of listed agreement transactions increased by about 4.6%, and the daily trading volume remained basically flat. The main CEA contract achieved a consecutive upward trend, with 1.186 million tons listed and 2.275 million tons in bulk transactions. The listed agreement trading volume of CCER was 100,100 tons, and the average transaction price was 87.85 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 37.51%. The signal strength of the strategy is 1 (0 for short position, ±1 for slightly long/short, ±2 for long/short) [2] Carbon Quota (CEA) Market - **Price**: The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 are 60.00 yuan/ton, 75.08 yuan/ton, 65.77 yuan/ton, 68.08 yuan/ton, and 75.50 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of 0.00%, 7.10%, - 2.06%, 1.22%, and 7.14%. The new - old price differences are 15.08 yuan/ton, - 9.31 yuan/ton, 2.31 yuan/ton, and 7.42 yuan/ton. The average bulk transaction price of CEA23 is 69.63 yuan/ton, and that of CEA24 is 72.70 yuan/ton [6] - **Volume**: The total trading volumes of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 are 0.00 million tons, 1.59 million tons, 7.07 million tons, 43.46 million tons, and 294.04 million tons respectively. The listed agreement trading volumes are 0.00 million tons, 1.59 million tons, 7.07 million tons, 33.46 million tons, and 76.52 million tons respectively. The bulk agreement trading volumes are 0.00 million tons, 2.1752 million tons, 1.00 million tons, 0.00 million tons, and 0.00 million tons respectively. The total trading amounts are 4.6508 million yuan, 29.7394 million yuan, 215.9057 million yuan, 0.00 million yuan, and 1.1921 million yuan respectively [6][7] Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) Market - The average transaction price of CCER is 87.85 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 37.51%. The trading amount is 8.7971 million yuan, the trading volume is 100,100 tons, and the cumulative trading volume is 8.7924 million tons [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the gradual emergence of compliance pressure and the basic release of mandatory circulation quotas, the upward momentum of carbon prices begins to accumulate, and carbon prices may enter a stage of trending recovery [3] - Since late October, affected by non - market factors, power generation groups have started to jointly support prices, leading to increased carbon price fluctuations [3] - The increase in the basic carry - over quota of the steel, cement, and electrolytic aluminum industries to 100,000 tons is positive for carbon prices [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **CEA**: Quotas rose across the board, with a more than 38% decline in trading volume. There were 1.146 million tons in the listing and 0.909 million tons in the bulk trading [3] - **CCER**: The listing agreement trading volume was 20,000 tons, and the average trading price was 72.00 yuan/ton, with a 1.53% change [3][8] Price and Volume Details - **CEA Price and Change**: The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 67.65 yuan/ton, 67.06 yuan/ton, 66.96 yuan/ton, 65.01 yuan/ton, and 67.63 yuan/ton respectively, with price increases of 10.00%, 7.83%, 8.21%, 6.16%, and 9.08% [6] - **CEA Trading Volume**: The total trading volumes of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 5,000 tons, 17,000 tons, 53,800 tons, 368,300 tons, and 1.6109 million tons respectively [6] - **CCER Trading Information**: The average trading price was 72.00 yuan/ton, with a 1.53% change. The trading volume was 20,000 tons, the trading amount was 1.441 million yuan, and the cumulative trading volume was 4.5797 million tons [8] Strategy - The signal strength for the day is 2 (0 means empty position, ±1 means slightly bullish/bearish, ±2 means bullish/bearish) [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may support a reversal in carbon prices, with a possible reversal in Q3 due to expected trading. By the end of October, as compliance pressure mounts and the release of mandatory circulation allowances nears its end, upward momentum may accumulate, and carbon prices may enter a stage of trend - based recovery [7] - It is recommended that deficit enterprises make phased purchases at low prices before the end of October [5] Group 3: Summary by Sections Market Quotes - The main CEA target rebounded above 40 yuan. There were 44.2 tons in listed trading and 63.1 tons in bulk trading. The total single - day trading volume was less than 1.1 million tons. For CCER, the listed agreement trading volume was 1.30 tons, with an average trading price of 57.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.40% [4] - The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 60.31 yuan/ton, 59.00 yuan/ton, 60.00 yuan/ton, 42.18 yuan/ton, and 41.48 yuan/ton respectively. The price increases were 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 8.46%, and 7.80% respectively [9] - The trading volume of CCER was 1.30 tons, with an average trading price of 57.60 yuan/ton (down 6.40%), and the trading amount was 74.99 million yuan [11] Strategy - Deficit enterprises are advised to make phased purchases at low prices before the end of October [5] Core Logic - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may be a realistic support for the reversal of carbon prices. Expected trading may lead to a possible carbon price reversal in Q3. By the end of October, as compliance pressure emerges and the release of mandatory circulation allowances nears completion, carbon prices may trend upwards [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - CEA prices continue to decline, and market activity has significantly decreased [4] - It is recommended that companies with a carbon quota gap make phased purchases at low prices before the end of October [5] - The depletion of mandatory circulation allowances may support a carbon price reversal, and signs of a reversal may appear in Q3 [5] - From September, carbon prices may be under pressure as key emitters release their mandatory circulation allowances. By the end of October, as compliance pressure mounts and the release of allowances nears completion, carbon prices may start to rise [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - CEA: Prices are falling. There are 19.3 tons available for listing and 10.0 tons for bulk trading. The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 are 65.00 yuan/ton, 61.50 yuan/ton, 60.91 yuan/ton, 54.55 yuan/ton, and 55.12 yuan/ton respectively, with the latter two showing declines of -1.71% and -0.68%. The total trading volume of CEA23 is 4.96 tons, and that of CEA24 is 24.36 tons [5][7] - CCER: The volume of listed agreement transactions is 2.93 tons, with an average transaction price of 78.14 yuan/ton, a 2.80% increase. The transaction amount is 228.94 million yuan, and the cumulative trading volume is 298.55 million tons [5][9] Strategies - It is advised that companies with a carbon quota gap make phased purchases at low prices before the end of October [5] - The depletion of mandatory circulation allowances may support a carbon price reversal, and signs of a reversal may appear in Q3 [5] Core Logic - From September, as key emitters gradually formulate trading plans based on their approved allowances, the accelerated release of mandatory circulation allowances may put pressure on carbon prices [6] - By the end of October, as compliance pressure mounts and the release of mandatory circulation allowances nears completion, the upward momentum may accumulate, and carbon prices may enter a stage of trending recovery [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The depletion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal, expected to occur around October, but anticipatory trading could bring signs of reversal in Q3 [6]. - Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate due to slow release of mandatory circulation quotas and low trading willingness. Starting from September, as compliance pressure mounts, prices may rise [6]. - It is recommended that deficit enterprises make phased purchases at low prices before the end of September [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Today's Market - CEA24 single - item auction was sold at the reserve price with a 95% unsold rate due to price - raising behavior yesterday [4]. - For CEA, the main targets declined to varying degrees, with 36.4 tons listed and 89.7 tons in bulk transactions [4]. - For CCER, the listed agreement trading volume was 0.24 tons, and the average transaction price was 80.97 yuan/ton, a 1.21% change [4]. Carbon Quota (CEA) Data | CEA Type | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Daily Change (%) | New - Old Price Difference (yuan/ton) | Bulk Transaction Average Price (yuan/ton) | Total Transaction Volume (tons) | Listed Agreement Transaction Volume (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CEA19 - 20 | 69.00 | 0.00% | - | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | | CEA21 | 70.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | | CEA22 | 69.72 | - 0.83% | - 0.28 | N/A | 1.05 | 1.05 | | CEA23 | 69.11 | - 0.59% | - 0.61 | 66.48 | 62.33 | 15.19 | | CEA24 | 69.42 | - 0.52% | 0.31 | 69.34 | 63.28 | 20.20 | [8] CCER Data - The average transaction price of CCER was 80.97 yuan/ton, with a 1.21% change, a trading volume of 0.24 tons, and a turnover of 19.11 million yuan. The cumulative trading volume was 250.40 tons [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may support a carbon price reversal, with an expected depletion by mid - early October, but anticipatory trading could lead to signs of a reversal in Q3 [5] - Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate due to slow release of mandatory circulation allowances and low trading willingness; starting from September, as compliance pressure builds, prices may rise [5] - The report suggests that enterprises with a carbon allowance gap should make phased purchases at low prices before the end of August [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Carbon Emission Allowance (CEA) Market - CEA22 is stable, while the main target continues to decline. There are 160,000 tons for listing and 100,000 tons for bulk trading [3] - CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 have closing prices of 71.34 yuan/ton, 70.00 yuan/ton, 70.80 yuan/ton, 72.42 yuan/ton, and 72.47 yuan/ton respectively, with CEA23 and CEA24 having a decline of - 0.29% and - 0.48% [7] - The total trading volume of CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 are 100,000 tons, 56,900 tons, and 103,000 tons respectively [7] China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) Market - The listing agreement trading volume is 80,000 tons, and the average trading price is 80.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.53%. The trading amount is 6.5 million yuan, and the cumulative trading volume is 2.4808 million tons [3][9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may support a reversal in carbon prices. It is expected that the mandatory circulation allowances will be exhausted by mid - early October, but anticipatory trading may lead to signs of a carbon price reversal in Q3. Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate due to slow release of mandatory circulation allowances and low trading willingness. From September, as compliance pressure emerges, upward momentum may be released and prices may rise [6]. - It is recommended that enterprises with a carbon allowance gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Conditions - **CEA**: The main target is weakly volatile. There are 26.9 tons for listing and 10.0 tons for bulk trading. The daily average trading volume in the week exceeds 600,000 tons, and the CEA price has been falling. For different years' CEA, the closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 are 71.34 yuan/ton, 70.00 yuan/ton, 73.00 yuan/ton, 72.93 yuan/ton, and 73.20 yuan/ton respectively; the price changes are 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, - 0.27%, and 0.07% respectively; the total trading volumes are 0.00 tons, 0.00 tons, 2.00 tons, 6.00 tons, and 28.91 tons respectively [4][8]. - **CCER**: The listing agreement trading volume is 70,000 tons, the average trading price is 78.00 yuan/ton (-5.33%), the trading amount is 5.46 million yuan, and the cumulative trading volume is 2.4771 million tons [4][10]. Core Logic - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances is the realistic support for carbon price reversal. Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate, and from September, prices may rise due to compliance pressure [6].

Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that enterprises with a quota gap should make phased low - cost purchases before the end of August. The depletion of the mandatory circulation quota may support the carbon price reversal. With less than half of the 2025 mandatory circulation quota released, it's expected to be exhausted by mid - October. Anticipatory trading may lead to a carbon price reversal in Q3. Before August, the carbon price may fluctuate due to slow quota release and low trading willingness. From September, the price may rise as compliance pressure mounts, but price volatility may intensify in the second half of the year [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - CEA: The main targets showed mixed trends and were generally weak. The listed volume was 3.1 thousand tons, and the bulk volume was 0.0 thousand tons. The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 71.34 yuan/ton, 71.00 yuan/ton, 74.50 yuan/ton, 74.11 yuan/ton, and 74.50 yuan/ton respectively, with the CEA23's price dropping by 0.86% and CEA24 rising by 0.04%. The total trading volume of CEA23 was 2.11 thousand tons, and that of CEA24 was 1.00 thousand tons [3][6] - CCER: The listed agreement trading volume was 0.15 thousand tons, the average trading price was 83.05 yuan/ton (down 0.51%), the trading amount was 124,700 yuan, and the cumulative trading volume was 237,660 tons [3][8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent average daily trading volume is less than 600,000 tons, and the comprehensive price is approaching the expected bottom range [3] - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [3] - After the CEA price dropped to around 70 yuan/ton, both rigid and speculative market demands emerged, the market trading heat increased significantly, and the release of mandatory circulation quotas accelerated. The bottom price of CEA in May may be 65 - 68 yuan/ton [5] - Currently, the release ratio of mandatory circulation quotas is less than 20%, there is still potential selling pressure, the market price is oscillating at the bottom, and there is still a lack of upward driving force. If the selling time of surplus enterprises is postponed, the price bottom may be lower and the rebound height more limited. If the daily trading volume can significantly increase, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - CEA: CEA23 and CEA24 showed significant declines, while CEA22 had a slight rebound. The listed volume was 206,000 tons, and the bulk volume was 200,000 tons [3] - CCER: The listed agreement trading volume was 30,000 tons, and the average trading price was 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.03% [3] Strategy - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August. In 2025, the remaining 40% of mandatory circulation quotas can only meet part of the market demand, and about 40 - 50 million tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [3] Core Logic - After the CEA price dropped to around 70 yuan/ton, market demand increased, and the release of mandatory circulation quotas accelerated. The bottom price of CEA in May may be 65 - 68 yuan/ton [5] - The release ratio of mandatory circulation quotas is low, there is potential selling pressure, and the price is oscillating at the bottom. The selling time of surplus enterprises affects the price bottom and rebound height. If the daily trading volume increases, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [5] Data Tables - CEA price and trading volume data for different years are presented, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and trading amounts [7][8][9] - CCER trading information shows an average trading price of 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.03%, a trading volume of 30,000 tons, and a cumulative trading volume of 185,910 tons [9]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: National Carbon Market Weekly Brief (Issue 81, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures [2] - Release date: May 23, 2025 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The recent average daily trading volume is low, and the trend of bottom - grinding through fluctuations is difficult to change in the short term [5] - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [7] Group 4: Market Conditions CEA - CEA22 has a significant decline, while other quotas are weakly stable. The volume of listed transactions is 15.64 tons, and the volume of bulk transactions is 42.00 tons [6] - CEA19 - 20 has a closing price of 69.50 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.14%, CEA21 has a closing price of 68.50 yuan/ton with no change, CEA22 has a closing price of 67.80 yuan/ton with a decline of 3.14%, CEA23 has a closing price of 70.53 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.10%, and CEA24 has a closing price of 70.73 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.18% [11] - The total trading volume of CEA19 - 20 is 0.20 tons, CEA21 is 0.00 tons, CEA22 is 1.50 tons, CEA23 is 11.07 tons, and CEA24 is 44.87 tons [11] - The total turnover of CEA19 - 20 is 3176.98 million yuan, CEA21 is 101.70 million yuan, CEA22 is 13.97 million yuan, CEA23 is 897.26 million yuan, and CEA24 is 0.00 million yuan [12] CCER - The volume of listed agreement transactions is 3.50 tons, and the average transaction price is 90.00 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3.82%. The turnover is 315.36 million yuan, and the cumulative trading volume is 179.41 tons [6][13] Group 5: Strategy - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August. In 2025, the remaining 40% of the mandatory circulation quota can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.4 - 0.5 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [7] Group 6: Core Logic - After the CEA price drops to around 70 yuan, both the rigid demand and speculative demand in the market appear, the market trading enthusiasm significantly increases, and the release of the mandatory circulation quota accelerates. The bottom of the CEA comprehensive price in May may be 65 - 68 yuan/ton [9] - Currently, the release ratio of the mandatory circulation quota is less than 20%, and there is still potential selling pressure. The market price is bottom - grinding through fluctuations and still lacks upward driving force. If the selling time of surplus enterprises is postponed, the price bottom may be lower and the rebound height may be more limited. If the daily trading volume can significantly increase, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [9]