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光大期货软商品日报-20250924
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 05:46
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term, affected by upcoming large - scale new cotton listings and supply pressure. The short - term decline space of ICE cotton is limited, and attention should be paid to ginneries' purchase intentions and opening prices [2]. - Sugar is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the near future, but the supply pressure is not fully released. The domestic sugar market is in a weak fundamental pattern, and the future influencing factors include Inner Mongolia's sugar pressing progress and Guangxi's pre - sales situation. A weak view on sugar futures prices is maintained, and attention should be paid to the performance of raw sugar [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Research Views Cotton - On Tuesday, ICE US cotton rose 0.59% to 66.61 cents/pound, CF601 decreased 0.7% to 13,540 yuan/ton, and the main contract positions increased by 10,524 lots to 532,800 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,755 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day. After the Fed's September FOMC meeting, the overall drive has slowed, with the focus on the macro - level. The US dollar index is weak, and US cotton prices are strong. The number of net short positions of non - commercial positions in the latest week of CFTC has decreased significantly, limiting the short - term sharp decline of US cotton. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton is in a weak trend due to upcoming new cotton listings and supply pressure, and downstream demand has limited short - term digestion capacity [2]. Sugar - In September, Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first three weeks were 2.4079 million tons, a decrease of 301,300 tons (11.12%) compared to the same period last year, with a daily average export volume of 160,500 tons. The spot prices of sugar groups in Guangxi and Yunnan decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and some processing sugar factories' quotes decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. Raw sugar rebounded above 16 cents/pound, but the supply pressure remains, and the sustainability of the rebound needs to be observed. The domestic spot market sentiment is pessimistic, with sufficient short - term supply and fragile market sentiment. The futures market is led by raw sugar [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring Cotton - The 1 - 5 contract spread is - 20, down 15; the main basis is 1,593, down 21. The spot price in Xinjiang is 15,070 yuan/ton, down 76, and the national average is 15,133 yuan/ton, down 91 [3]. Sugar - The 1 - 5 contract spread is 26, up 7; the main basis is 411, down 2. The spot price in Nanning is 5,780 yuan/ton, down 20, and in Liuzhou is 5,855 yuan/ton, down 10 [3]. 3. Market Information - On September 22, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 3,915, down 181 from the previous trading day, with 12 valid forecasts. - On September 23, the cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,070 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, 15,112 yuan/ton in Henan, 15,151 yuan/ton in Shandong, and 15,230 yuan/ton in Zhejiang. - On September 23, the comprehensive load of yarn was 50.1 (unchanged), the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 25.9 (down 0.1), the comprehensive load of staple fiber cloth was 52.8 (unchanged), and the comprehensive inventory of staple fiber cloth was 29 (unchanged). - On September 23, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,780 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and in Liuzhou was 5,855 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. - On September 23, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 10,022, down 293 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [4][5] 4. Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin is the research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won many awards related to sugar analysis [20]. - Zhang Linglu is an analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass. She has won many honors [21]. - Sun Chengzhen is an analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy. He won the honor of senior analyst of textile products at Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in 2024 [22]