软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2026 年 3 月 3 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一，ICE 美棉下跌 1.23%，报收 64.8 美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比下降 0.68%，报 收 15225 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 43468 手至 79.45 万手，棉花 3128B 现货 | | | | 价格指数 16360 元/吨，较前一日下调 75 元/吨。国际市场方面，地缘冲突加剧， | | | | 美元指数震荡走强，市场避险情绪升温，贵金属、原油走强，美棉期价震荡走弱。 | | | 棉花 | 国内市场方面，市场目光聚焦于海外地缘冲突，国内贵金属、有色、能化品种走 | 震荡 | | | 势偏强，棉花的替代品化纤类产品价格有所上涨，但棉花期价延续震荡回调走势。 | | | | 基本面角度来看，近期棉花库存下降速度略超预期，侧面推算消费尚可。中长期 | | | | 角度来看，国内棉花即将开始种植，2026/27 年度国内棉花供需格局预期收窄，中 | | | | 长期来看，国内棉花期价仍有支撑。综合来看，短期市场关注重点仍将在于海外 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The cotton market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with limited upward drive for Zhengzhou cotton before the Spring Festival. In the medium - to - long - term, there may be upward space. The 2026 cotton planting area in China is expected to decline by 1.7% year - on - year, and the national cotton output is expected to drop by 5.8% year - on - year. The demand for replenishment is limited in terms of time and space [2] - The sugar market is also in a volatile pattern. The raw sugar is suppressed by oversupply, and the domestic market is relatively independent before the import license is issued, but may be affected by the overseas market during the long holiday [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Cotton**: On Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.39% to 64.29 cents per pound, and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose 0.58% to 14,790 yuan per ton, with the main contract positions decreasing by 2,417 lots to 694,000 lots. The supply this year is set. The demand for replenishment is limited as textile enterprises are on holiday, and the cotton inventory of spinning enterprises is at a five - year high. The market trading is weak [2] - **Sugar**: As of February 10, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume decreased by 7.67% year - on - year, the sugar content increased by 0.15%, the sugar production rate increased by 0.171%, and the sugar production decreased by 6.17% year - on - year. The domestic sugar price quotations of some groups were slightly reduced. The raw sugar price hit a five - year low due to oversupply, and the domestic market is volatile [2] Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 3 - 5 spread is 70, up 20; the main basis is 1,279, down 5; the Xinjiang spot price is 15,792, up 36; the national spot price is 16,069, up 40 [3] - **Sugar**: The 3 - 5 spread is 3, up 1; the main basis is 96, up 12; the Nanning spot price is 5,330, unchanged; the Liuzhou spot price is 5,350, unchanged [3] Market Information - On February 12, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 10,889, an increase of 143 from the previous trading day, with 1,156 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions of China were reported [4] - On February 12, the yarn comprehensive load was 28.6, down 3.3 from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 22.8, up 0.1; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 23.3, down 7.9; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 32.6, unchanged [4] - On February 12, the sugar spot price in Nanning was 5,330 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the sugar spot price in Liuzhou was 5,350 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 14,461, unchanged from the previous trading day, with 258 valid forecasts [4][5] Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts including cotton and sugar's main contract closing prices, basis, spreads, warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, and price indices [7][10][15][18]

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2026 年 2 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三，ICE 美棉上涨 0.41%，报收 64.04 美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比上涨 0.51%， 报收 14745 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 3860 手至 69.6 万手。国际市场方面， | | | | 宏观层面仍有扰动，美国非农数据强劲，预期降息节点推迟，美元指数震荡走强。 | | | | 基本面来看， USDA2 月报环比调减 2025/26 年度美棉出口量预期值，库销比预期 | | | 棉花 | 同比增加，2025/26 年度美棉供需格局预计较为宽松。国内市场方面，郑棉主力合 | 震荡 | | | 约期价震荡上行，持仓小幅下降。近日中国棉花信息网发布意向种植面积调研报 | | | | 告，2026 年我国棉花意向种植面积同比下降 1.7%，全国棉花产量预计同比下降 | | | | 5.8%。整体来看，我们认为节前郑棉上行驱动有限。春节假期临近，纺织企业陆 | | | | 续放假，纺企棉花库存可用天数已经创下近五年来同期新高，补库需求的时 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a soft commodity daily report dated February 10, 2026, covering sugar, cotton, apple, and jujube [1] Group 2: Sugar Analysis Core View - Domestic sugar demand is average, and the weak international raw sugar prices are expected to drag down domestic sugar, with limited upside potential [3] Price Data - Sugar futures prices on February 10, 2026: SR01 closed at 5395 with a daily increase of 0.3% and a weekly increase of 2.18%; SR03 at 5285 (daily 0.3%, weekly 1.99%); SR05 at 5278 (daily 0.32%, weekly 2.15%); SR07 at 5291 (daily 0.38%, weekly 2.3%); SR09 at 5288 (daily 0.27%, weekly 2.14%); SR11 at 5293 (daily 0.28%, weekly 1.95%); SB at 14.31 (daily 1.2%, weekly -2.19%); W at 413.9 (daily 1.03%, weekly -0.81%) [4] - Sugar price spreads and basis data are also presented, such as SR01 - 05 at 118 (down 1 day - on - day, up 2 week - on - week), and various basis values like Nanning - SR01 at -79 (down 32 day - on - day, down 86 week - on - week) [4][12] - Sugar import price changes: Brazilian import quota - within price at 3912 (down 35 day - on - day, down 31 week - on - week), out - of - quota at 4950 (down 46 day - on - day, down 40 week - on - week); Thai import quota - within price at 3903 (down 35 day - on - day, down 85 week - on - week), out - of - quota at 4938 (down 46 day - on - day, down 111 week - on - week) [15] Group 3: Cotton Analysis Core View - Short - term cotton prices are affected by macro sentiment. The expected tight industrial supply - demand this year provides core support, but there is a lack of strong upward drive in the external market before the Spring Festival. Zhengzhou cotton's upside is restricted by the internal - external price difference, and with the approaching Spring Festival, market funds' risk - aversion sentiment rises. It is expected to be in a short - term oscillatory market, and downstream import dynamics and new orders need close attention [17] Price Data - Cotton and cotton yarn futures prices on February 10, 2026: Cotton 01 closed at 15165 (up 65, 0.43%); Cotton 05 at 14655 (up 75, 0.51%); Cotton 09 at 14770 (up 65, 0.44%); Cotton yarn 01 at 0 (down 100%); Cotton yarn 05 at 20440 (up 80, 0.39%); Cotton yarn 09 at 20615 (up 15, 0.07%). Various price spreads are also provided, such as cotton 01 - 05 at 520 (unchanged) [18] Group 4: Apple Analysis Core View - The disk logic is centered around fundamentals and short - term delivery issues. Current stocking is ending, the consumption peak season logic has been realized, short - term demand weakness suppresses the disk, but the delivery contradiction provides support, limiting the downside space [23] Price Data - Apple futures prices on February 10, 2026: AP01 closed at 8120 (down 0.53%, down 0.39% weekly); AP03 at 9475 (down 0.43%, up 0.7% weekly); AP04 at 9436 (down 1.13%, up 0.90% weekly); AP05 at 9500 (down 0.18%, up 0.16% weekly); AP10 at 8214 (down 0.28%, down 0.51% weekly); AP11 at 8177 (up 0.29%, up 3.28% weekly); AP12 at 8209 (up 0.09%, up 2.73% weekly). Various price spreads and basis values are presented, such as AP01 - 05 at -1354 (down 4.45%, up 5.21% weekly), and the main contract basis at -95 (up 6.74%, up 26.67% weekly) [23] Group 5: Jujube Analysis Core View - The 2025/2026 jujube production is settled, and the market focus shifts to demand changes. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream purchases and sales slow down. Short - term jujube prices may remain low and oscillatory, and in the long - term, the overall domestic jujube supply - demand pattern is loose, and prices will face pressure [31] Price Data - Jujube futures price spreads are presented, such as the 01 - 05 spread in historical time series data [32]

(白糖) 上周美糖震荡。市场的关注点转向下榨季的产量预估，进入雨季后巴西中南部主产区的降雨偏少，不利于甘蔗的生长。另外， 由于糖醇比价大幅回调。预计下榨季的制糖比也将下降，26/27榨季巴西的产糖量将有所减少。国内方面，郑糖弱势震荡。产销 方面,截至1月31日，2025/26年榨季广西累计产混合糖402.90万吨，同比减少78.80万吨；累计销糖155.06万吨，同比减少 83.03万吨；工业库存247.84万吨，同比增加4.23万吨。从产销数据来看，生产和销售进度都偏慢。 销量大幅下降的主要原因是 市场看空情绪较强，导致采购较少。产量方面，虽然25/26榨季广西增产预期较强，但是生产进度始终偏慢，关注后续生产情 况，操作上暂时观望。 (苹果) 期价震荡。现货方面,主流价格持稳。春节备货进入高峰,西北产区冷库成交量显著提高,部分货源价格走强。山东方面,主 产区客商数量依然较多,发货量较大。需求方面,整体销售情况良好。库存方面,卓创的数据显示,截至2月5日,全国冷库率 娱库存为563.51万吨，同比下降9%。全国冷库苹果出库量为37.5万吨，同比下降12.81%。从交易逻辑来看，市场的交易逻辑转 向需求。今年苹 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2026 年 2 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周三，ICE 美棉下跌 0.14%，报收 62.22 美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比上涨 0.03%， | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 报收 14680 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 1549 手至 71.63 万手，棉花 3128B 现货 价格指数 15660 元/吨，较前一日上涨 10 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期整体驱动有 | | | | 限。宏观层面的扰动逐渐减弱，基本面来看也并无新增矛盾，关注美元指数变化 | | | | 及美棉出口数据。国内市场方面，郑棉主力合约窄幅震荡。2026 年中央一号文件 | | | 棉花 | 于近日发布，提到"推动棉花、糖料、天然橡胶等产业平稳发展"，"完善棉花 | 震荡 | | | 目标价格政策"等。基本面角度来看，节前郑棉上行驱动有限，当前棉花库存高 | | | | 位、进口增量，总供应充裕。节前下游纺织企业虽有补库动作，但目前纺企棉花 | | | | 库存可用天数已经创下近五年来同期新高，再度大幅补库动力有限，纺织企业也 | | | | 将陆续开 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a general rating of "oscillating weakly" for the soft commodity industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation pattern before the festival. The sugar market is at a cyclical bottom, with prices oscillating at a low level and no obvious short - term upward drive [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Cotton - Supply side: The pressure of the previous high - yield has been basically digested. Although the output increased significantly, the increase in commercial inventory is much lower than the output increase. The market circulation supply is relatively tight, and the high spot basis continues to support cotton prices [1] - Demand side: It was resilient before, but affected by the high domestic - foreign cotton price difference, imported cotton and yarn impact the domestic market. Since January, textile mills' profits have been continuously compressed, some inland mills' losses have expanded, and some enterprises plan to have an early holiday. There is no clear short - term demand trend [1] Sugar - International situation: Consultancy Stonex expects the 2026/27 sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region to be 40.7 million tons, 0.8 million tons less than the previous estimate, and the ethanol production to be 36.5 billion liters, 0.4 billion liters more than the previous estimate. As of January 31, 2026, India's 2025/26 sugar production reached 19.503 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.024 million tons or 18.35%, and the number of operating sugar mills increased by 14 to 515 [2] - Domestic situation: The domestic sugar futures price declined with the market, but it is approaching the southern sugar mills' production cost, so the downside is limited [2]

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2026 年 2 月 3 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一，ICE 美棉下跌 0.59%，报收 62.8 美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比下跌 1.32%，报 | 震荡 | | | 收 14575 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 33772 手至 71.95 万手，棉花 3128B 现货 | | | | 价格指数 15570 元/吨，较前一日下跌 125 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期海外宏观扰 | | | | 动较大，贵金属持续下跌，市场恐慌情绪升温，美元指数走强，美棉期价重心震 | | | 棉花 | 荡下移。国内市场方面，昨日大宗商品市场整体表现偏弱，郑棉减仓下行。基本 | | | | 面角度来看，当前棉花库存高位、进口增量，总供应充裕。节前下游纺织企业虽 | | | | 有补库动作，但目前纺企棉花库存可用天数已经创下近五年来同期新高，再度大 | | | | 幅补库动力有限。随着春节假期临近，纺织企业将陆续开始放假，郑棉上行驱动 | | | | 不足。综合来看，情绪多变，大宗商品行情轮动，节前基本面对棉价上行驱动 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the soft commodities industry is "oscillating weakly" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern before the Spring Festival due to factors such as the end of downstream restocking, low profitability of spinning enterprises, and the overall decline of commodities [1] - Sugar is at a cyclical bottom, with limited downward space as the price is close to the southern sugar mill's crushing cost. It has no obvious upward drive in the short - term and is in a low - level wide - range oscillation [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton - Near the end of the year, downstream fabric mills and traders are approaching the end of restocking, and spinning enterprises buy cotton at low prices to replenish inventory. However, spinning in inland enterprises is basically unprofitable, production enthusiasm has declined, and some enterprises plan to have an early holiday. Downstream enterprises are in the stage of centralized payment collection, and sales activities are gradually shrinking [1] Sugar - As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season reached 19.503 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.024 million tons or 18.35%. The number of sugar mills in operation increased by 14 to 515 compared to the same period last year. Sugar production in Uttar Pradesh increased by about 5% compared to the end of January last year. In Maharashtra, sugar production reached 7.872 million tons, a year - on - year increase of nearly 42%, and the number of operating sugar mills increased from 190 to 206. In Karnataka, the sugar production increased by about 15% year - on - year [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market shows that on Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton dropped 0.42% to 63.46 cents per pound, while the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose 1.05% to 14,910 yuan per ton, with the main - contract positions decreasing by 18,141 lots to 805,100 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,880 yuan per ton, up 145 yuan from the previous day. Internationally, the Fed's January interest - rate meeting had no change, and the market saw Powell's statement as dovish, but it had little impact on U.S. cotton prices. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton rose with reduced positions. The textile enterprises' pre - holiday stocking was limited, and their raw material inventory was at a medium - to - high level. With the Spring Festival approaching, demand was weakly boosted. The current cotton inventory was at a high level this year, and imported cotton increased, so the supply was abundant. The cotton price is expected to be range - bound before the holiday and promising in the long - term [2]. - For the sugar market, the European Commission proposed to suspend duty - free sugar imports to relieve pressure on sugar producers. In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the EU's raw sugar imports reached 587,000 tons, a 19% increase year - on - year, about 95% from Brazil; refined sugar imports were 155,000 tons, a 5% increase, about 43% from Brazil. The spot prices of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups increased. Raw sugar is in the production - realization stage in the Northern Hemisphere, lacking a trending market. Recently, due to the general rise of commodities, sugar prices rebounded significantly. If the May contract rebounds to around 5,300 yuan per ton, pay attention to enterprises' hedging intentions; in the medium - term, focus on the arbitrage opportunities between the May and September contracts [2]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 3 - 5 spread was 55 yuan, down 70 yuan; the main - contract basis was 1193 yuan, up 200 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang was 15,832 yuan per ton, up 214 yuan, and the national price was 16,103 yuan per ton, up 170 yuan [3]. - For sugar, the 3 - 5 spread was 9 yuan, up 6 yuan; the main - contract basis was 93 yuan, down 30 yuan. The spot price in Nanning was 5,320 yuan per ton, up 50 yuan, and in Liuzhou was 5,350 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan [3]. 2. Market Information - On January 29, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 10,243, an increase of 34 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 1072 [4]. - On January 29, the arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions were: 15,832 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 16,145 yuan per ton in Henan, 16,165 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 16,225 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [4]. - On January 29, the comprehensive load of yarn was 47.4, down 0.1 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 24.3, down 0.2; the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 50.5, unchanged; the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 32.3, unchanged [4]. - On January 29, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,320 yuan per ton, up 50 yuan from the previous trading day; in Liuzhou, it was 5,350 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan [4]. - On January 29, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 14,119, up 404 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 89 [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts including cotton's main - contract closing price, main - contract basis, 3 - 5 spread, 1% tariff - quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, and China's cotton price index; as well as sugar's main - contract closing price, main - contract basis, 3 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [7][11][14][17]. 4. Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource - product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won many titles such as "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" and "Senior Senior Analyst of Sugar at Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange" [19]. - Zhang Linglu is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for futures varieties like urea and soda - ash glass. She has won many awards including "Senior Senior Analyst of Soda - ash at Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange" [20]. - Sun Chengzhen is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in the fundamental research of varieties such as cotton and cotton yarn. He has won titles like "Senior Analyst of Textile Products at Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange" [21].