傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | 单 位 | 名 称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 元/吨 | CF2605 CY2605 | 元/吨 | 15,380 21,315 | 0.62% 0.21% | 15540 21450 | 1.04% 0.63% | | ICE美棉5 | | 美分/磅 | 66.16 | 1.01% | | - | | 昨日成交 | | | | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 手 | 期 货 CF2605 | | 840,688 | 223,113 | 1,169,274 | 69,884 | | 手 | CY2605 | | 15,055 | -1,999 | 12,630 | 1,045 | | 昨日仓单量 | | | | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日变动 | | 郑棉 | | 张 | 11,124 | 111 | 1,205 | 64 | | 棉纱 | ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 （孙成震，从业资格号：F03099994；交易咨询资格号：Z0021057） 周二，ICE美棉上涨0.55%，报收65.5美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比上涨3.8%，报收15285元/吨，主力合 约持仓环比增加92446手至75.94万手。棉花3128B现货价格指数16205元/吨，较前一日上调415元/吨。节 后首个交易日，郑棉增仓上行，我们认为主要驱动如下：1、国内春假长假期间，ICE美棉期价上涨超 2%，对国内棉价有一定影响。2、USDA2月农业展望论坛预计2026/27年度全球、美国、中国棉花库销 比均同比下降，即2026/27年度全球多个棉花主产国供需格局将同比收窄。3、国内种植面积调减及目标 价格政策预期，现在已经是2月下旬，再有一个月左右时间国内新棉就将开始种植，植棉面积调控细则 逐渐明朗，目标价格补贴政策调整仍有预期。综合来看，我们认为后续内外棉共振程度或逐渐增强，短 期难现持续单边行情，但中长期来看，我们认为内外棉价上方均有一定空间。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性、可靠性和完整性不作任何保证，也 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2026 年 2 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周一，ICE 美棉上涨 0.85%，报收 61.58 美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比下降 0.07%， | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 报收 14580 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 270 手至 70.1 万手。国际市场方面，宏 | | | | 观层面仍有扰动，美元指数震荡走弱，美棉期价触底回升，整体驱动有限。国内 | | | 棉花 | 市场方面，郑棉主力合约窄幅震荡，持仓小幅下降。我们认为，节前郑棉上行驱 | 震荡 | | | 动有限。随着春节假期临近，纺织企业将陆续开始放假，纺企棉花库存可用天数 | | | | 已经创下近五年来同期新高，补库需求的时间与空间均有限，市场成交转淡。综 | | | | 合来看，节前郑棉以震荡格局对待。 | | | | 消息方面，1 月上半月，巴西中南部地区甘蔗入榨量为 60.5 万吨，较去年同期的 | | | | 30.1 万吨增加 30.4 万吨，同比增幅 100.99%；甘蔗 ATR 为 132.95kg/吨，较去年同 | | | | 期的 11 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][6][9] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the international market has short - term pressure due to new cotton listings and weak consumption, while the US cotton is in a low - valuation range. The domestic market has a large increase in production, weak downstream orders, and a balanced supply - demand situation with a possible end - of - year inventory shortage [2] - For sugar, the short - to - medium - term market is in a low - level consolidation, with a possible further bottom - seeking but limited downside. The long - term market is not overly pessimistic [4][6] - For pulp, although there are overseas supply disruptions, the domestic fundamentals have insufficient improvement, and the pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,730 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan/ton (+1.34%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,553 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,839 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1] - As of January 18, 1097 cotton processing enterprises participated in the notarized inspection, with a total inspection weight of 6.992 million tons, an increase of 208,000 tons from the previous week. Xinjiang accounted for 98.8% of the total [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA in January lowered the global cotton production and ending stocks, but the short - term supply pressure is large, and the consumption is weak. The US cotton export signing progress is slow. In the long - term, the US cotton is in a low - valuation range [2] - Domestically, the 25/26 domestic cotton production increased significantly, the downstream orders are weak, and the supply - demand is balanced with a possible end - of - year inventory shortage [2] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term upward space of the domestic market is limited, and the long - term trend depends on policy implementation [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5158 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.27%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5260 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5160 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton [2] - In the second half of December, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 2.171 million tons, an increase of 26.60% year - on - year. The sugar production was 0.56 million tons, a decrease of 14.93% year - on - year [3] Market Analysis - The short - to - medium - term domestic and international sugar markets are in a low - level consolidation. The long - term market is not overly pessimistic due to possible changes in the Brazilian sugar - making ratio and Thai planting area [4] Strategy - Neutral. The short - to - medium - term sugar price is expected to oscillate and build a bottom, with a possible further bottom - seeking but limited downside [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5380 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (+0.37%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5000 yuan/ton, unchanged [7] - The import wood pulp spot market price was basically stable, with only individual fluctuations [7] Market Analysis - Supply: There were many overseas pulp mill shutdown and maintenance news at the end of 2025. Demand: The European port pulp inventory decreased in November, but the domestic terminal demand was insufficient, and the port inventory was at a historical high [8] Strategy - Neutral. The pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term due to insufficient improvement in domestic fundamentals [9]

Sugar Market - The current spot price range for sugar from Guangxi Sugar Group is 5310 to 5410 CNY/ton, while Yunnan Sugar Group's new sugar is priced between 5140 and 5240 CNY/ton. The main processing sugar factory prices range from 5750 to 5900 CNY/ton, with prices remaining stable across the board [2][7] - In the raw sugar market, prices fell by over 2% last night, returning to a fluctuating range, with the northern hemisphere's crushing pace expected to dominate the market in the future [2][7] - Domestic spot transactions are sluggish, but there is still some purchasing demand before the Spring Festival, which may support future prices. However, due to the increase in production, the market remains cautious, making it difficult for prices to rise significantly [2][7] Cotton Market - On Tuesday, ICE cotton prices decreased by 0.08%, closing at 64.3 cents per pound, while the main contract for Zheng cotton increased by 0.52%, closing at 14560 CNY/ton. The main contract's open interest rose by 7966 contracts to 876600 contracts, and the cotton 3128B spot price index increased by 40 CNY/ton to 15280 CNY/ton [3][7] - The international market shows limited driving factors, with both macroeconomic and fundamental aspects lacking significant disturbances, leading to low-level fluctuations in U.S. cotton prices [3][7] - The domestic market for Zheng cotton shows an increase in open interest, with prices at a high level causing some market divergence. The current market trend is primarily driven by expectations of a reduction in cotton planting area for the new year, which is now largely confirmed, although official details are still pending [3][7] - Looking ahead, there are expectations for policy changes, particularly regarding the cotton target price subsidy policy, which has been stable at 18600 CNY/ton for a long time. The market anticipates adjustments to the new year's target price [3][7] - In summary, short-term adjustments in Zheng cotton prices may occur, but there is support at the bottom. Key future points of focus include whether downstream textile companies will have new replenishment needs before the Spring Festival and whether there will be macroeconomic easing measures in the first quarter of next year, along with the announcement of new cotton target price subsidy policy details around April 10 [3][7]

Sugar Industry - As of December 24, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume reached 11.53 million tons, a decrease of 1.96 million tons or 14.54% compared to the same period last year [3] - The sugar content of the sugarcane was 11.40%, down 0.08% from 11.48% last year, while the sugar production rate increased by 0.027% to 8.676% [3] - Sugar production amounted to 1.00 million tons, a decline of 0.17 million tons or 14.28% year-on-year [3] - Current spot prices for sugar in Guangxi range from 5,320 to 5,410 CNY per ton, while in Yunnan, prices are between 5,140 and 5,260 CNY per ton, remaining stable [3] - The raw sugar market is closed due to the Christmas holiday, and the domestic spot market has stabilized after a decline, with expectations of future fluctuations [3] Cotton Industry - On Thursday, ICE cotton futures were closed for the Christmas holiday, while Zheng cotton's main contract rose by 0.74% to 14,255 CNY per ton, with open interest increasing by 20,504 contracts to 835,100 contracts [4] - The cotton 3128B spot price index was 15,000 CNY per ton, up 90 CNY from the previous day [4] - The recent upward trend in Zheng cotton prices is driven by strong expectations, particularly regarding potential reductions in cotton planting areas in Xinjiang [4] - The highest price for Zheng cotton futures reached 14,265 CNY per ton, influenced by market sentiment [4] - Key future considerations include the sustainability of consumer demand and potential new inventory replenishment by textile companies before the Spring Festival, as well as macroeconomic factors such as possible interest rate cuts and upcoming cotton subsidy policy details [4][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "sideways to bullish" rating for the cotton industry, suggesting to focus on downstream demand [1] Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to be sideways to bullish, and attention should be paid to downstream demand [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: CF2601 closed at 13,750 yuan/ton with 0.00% daily increase and 13,765 yuan/ton in night trading with 0.11% increase; CY2603 closed at 19,980 yuan/ton with - 0.12% daily increase and 19,970 yuan/ton in night trading with - 0.05% increase; ICE US cotton 3 closed at 63.74 cents/pound with - 0.33% decrease [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: CF2601 had a trading volume of 305,589 lots, an increase of 25,149 lots from the previous day, and an open interest of 1,044,111 lots, an increase of 5,249 lots; CY2603 had a trading volume of 4,420 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and an open interest of 16,063 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: Zhengzhou cotton had 2,753 warehouse receipts, an increase of 44, and 3,004 valid forecasts, an increase of 223; cotton yarn had 13 warehouse receipts, an increase of 1, and 0 valid forecasts, an increase of 12 [1] - **Spot Prices**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,606 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan from the previous day; the price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,633 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day; the price in Shandong was 15,019 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan from the previous day; the price in Hebei was 15,006 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan from the previous day; the 3128B index was 15,009 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan from the previous day; the international cotton index M was 72.02 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.15% from the previous day; the price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 20,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan from the previous day; the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 21,053 yuan/ton, an increase of 74 yuan from the previous day [1] - **Price Spreads**: The CF1 - 5 spread was not given, and the previous day's spread decreased by 5; the spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was not given, and the previous day's spread decreased by 20 [1] Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading was dull, high - basis trading was poor, and there was insufficient motivation to reduce the price of high - basis goods due to low inventory pressure [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price of pure - cotton yarn fluctuated slightly, with individual counts seeing a slight improvement in trading, but overall trading was dull. Some large spinning mills slightly reduced the price of regular yarns to clear inventory. The combed 40S category had good sales and stable to rising prices. Recently, some spinning mills of low - count yarns had more orders than before, but the overall atmosphere was still not good. The full - cotton grey fabric market was divided, with some home textile anti - down fabric varieties having continuous sales and declining inventory, but prices were difficult to rise. Regular varieties had average sales, inventory was digested, and prices were market - driven. Current spring and summer orders were less than in previous years, mainly small and scattered orders [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures rose first and then fell. The USDA's US cotton export sales data as of November 6 was better than expected, which once pushed up ICE cotton. However, due to the upcoming Fed interest - rate decision and the USDA's monthly supply - demand report, the market was cautious, and finally ICE cotton followed the overall commodity market trend and slightly declined [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view, with a value range of [- 2, 2] [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term, affected by upcoming large - scale new cotton listings and supply pressure. The short - term decline space of ICE cotton is limited, and attention should be paid to ginneries' purchase intentions and opening prices [2]. - Sugar is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the near future, but the supply pressure is not fully released. The domestic sugar market is in a weak fundamental pattern, and the future influencing factors include Inner Mongolia's sugar pressing progress and Guangxi's pre - sales situation. A weak view on sugar futures prices is maintained, and attention should be paid to the performance of raw sugar [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Research Views Cotton - On Tuesday, ICE US cotton rose 0.59% to 66.61 cents/pound, CF601 decreased 0.7% to 13,540 yuan/ton, and the main contract positions increased by 10,524 lots to 532,800 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,755 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day. After the Fed's September FOMC meeting, the overall drive has slowed, with the focus on the macro - level. The US dollar index is weak, and US cotton prices are strong. The number of net short positions of non - commercial positions in the latest week of CFTC has decreased significantly, limiting the short - term sharp decline of US cotton. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton is in a weak trend due to upcoming new cotton listings and supply pressure, and downstream demand has limited short - term digestion capacity [2]. Sugar - In September, Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first three weeks were 2.4079 million tons, a decrease of 301,300 tons (11.12%) compared to the same period last year, with a daily average export volume of 160,500 tons. The spot prices of sugar groups in Guangxi and Yunnan decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and some processing sugar factories' quotes decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. Raw sugar rebounded above 16 cents/pound, but the supply pressure remains, and the sustainability of the rebound needs to be observed. The domestic spot market sentiment is pessimistic, with sufficient short - term supply and fragile market sentiment. The futures market is led by raw sugar [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring Cotton - The 1 - 5 contract spread is - 20, down 15; the main basis is 1,593, down 21. The spot price in Xinjiang is 15,070 yuan/ton, down 76, and the national average is 15,133 yuan/ton, down 91 [3]. Sugar - The 1 - 5 contract spread is 26, up 7; the main basis is 411, down 2. The spot price in Nanning is 5,780 yuan/ton, down 20, and in Liuzhou is 5,855 yuan/ton, down 10 [3]. 3. Market Information - On September 22, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 3,915, down 181 from the previous trading day, with 12 valid forecasts. - On September 23, the cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,070 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, 15,112 yuan/ton in Henan, 15,151 yuan/ton in Shandong, and 15,230 yuan/ton in Zhejiang. - On September 23, the comprehensive load of yarn was 50.1 (unchanged), the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 25.9 (down 0.1), the comprehensive load of staple fiber cloth was 52.8 (unchanged), and the comprehensive inventory of staple fiber cloth was 29 (unchanged). - On September 23, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,780 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and in Liuzhou was 5,855 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. - On September 23, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 10,022, down 293 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [4][5] 4. Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin is the research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won many awards related to sugar analysis [20]. - Zhang Linglu is an analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass. She has won many honors [21]. - Sun Chengzhen is an analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy. He won the honor of senior analyst of textile products at Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in 2024 [22]

Cotton Market Analysis - ICE cotton prices fell by 0.88% to 67.82 cents per pound, while CF509 dropped by 0.23% to 12,745 yuan per ton, with a significant increase in open interest by 6,434 contracts to 587,500 contracts [1] - The price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased by 79 yuan per ton to 13,846 yuan per ton, and the China Cotton Price Index for grade 3128B fell by 70 yuan per ton to 14,113 yuan per ton [1] - The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, with mixed data from the US and expectations that the Federal Reserve will likely maintain its current stance in May, leading to a slight decline in the dollar index [1] - Weather conditions have improved as the area affected by drought in major cotton-producing regions of the US and Texas has decreased [1] - The domestic cotton market is experiencing low volatility, with expectations of improved US-China tariff conditions and cotton prices at historical lows, limiting downside potential [1] - The cotton planting season is nearly complete, with a year-on-year increase in planting area, but overall supply-demand dynamics are not expected to change significantly [1] - Short-term expectations suggest continued low-level fluctuations in Zheng cotton prices, with attention on macroeconomic and weather-related disturbances [1] Sugar Market Dynamics - For the 2024/25 crushing season ending April 30, 2025, India crushed 27,585.7 million tons of sugarcane, a decrease of 3,565.5 million tons or 11.44% from the previous year, with sugar production falling by 577 million tons or 18.33% to 2,569.5 million tons [1] - In the spot market, prices from Guangxi Sugar Group were reported at 6,140 to 6,270 yuan per ton, down by 20 to 30 yuan, while Yunnan Sugar Group's prices were 5,950 to 5,990 yuan per ton, down by 20 yuan [1] - Raw sugar prices experienced a brief rebound due to macroeconomic sentiment and rising crude oil prices, but concerns over increased production pressured prices, leading to a bearish outlook [1] - Domestic spot prices have been adjusted downwards with average transaction volumes, and while there is not significant pressure on domestic sugar inventories, the potential for future sugar imports is being considered [1]